The Framing of machine learning risk prediction models illustrated by evaluation of sepsis in general wards

Problem framing is critical to developing risk prediction models because all subsequent development work and evaluation takes place within the context of how a problem has been framed and explicit documentation of framing choices makes it easier to compare evaluation metrics between published studies. In this work, we introduce the basic concepts of framing, including prediction windows, observation windows, window shifts and event-triggers for a prediction that strongly affects the risk of clinician fatigue caused by false positives. Building on this, we apply four different framing structures to the same generic dataset, using a sepsis risk prediction model as an example, and evaluate how framing affects model performance and learning. Our results show that an apparently good model with strong evaluation results in both discrimination and calibration is not necessarily clinically usable. Therefore, it is important to assess the results of objective evaluations within the context of more subjective evaluations of how a model is framed.

Evaluating Decision Making in Sustainable Project Selection Between Literature and Practice

A robust project selection process is critical for the selection of sustainable projects that meet the needs of an organization or community. There are multiple factors or criteria that can be considered in the selection of the appropriate sustainable project, but it can be challenging to find sufficient depth of expert opinion to perform a strong evaluation of these criteria. Several researchers have turned to the sustainable project literature as a source of expert opinion to evaluate the criteria used in sustainable project selection and rank them based on importance using different multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methodologies. However, using the literature as a source of expert opinion poses a different set of challenges and may not accurately represent the actual opinions of sustainable project subject matter experts (SMEs) and practitioners. In this study, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) methodology is used to determine the importance of project cost, project maturity, skill and experience, uncertainty, and technology information transfer as selection criteria using collected opinions from academic sustainable project experts and practitioners. The results are then compared with previous research that used the literature to rank these five criteria based on importance when selecting between multiple sustainable project alternatives. The results show that project cost is still considered the major driver of decision making in sustainable project selection by both the literature and practice. However, unlike the literature-as-experts approach, SMEs prioritize skill and experience and technology information transfer over project maturity and uncertainty. Project managers and decision makers can use these findings to best prioritize the types of challenges that may occur depending on inputs for the FAHP analysis.

Flap fixation in preventing seroma formation after mastectomy: an updated meta-analysis

Seroma formation following mastectomy is one of the most experienced complications, with a very variable incidence ranging from 3 to 90%. In recent years, many publications have been realized to define an effective technique to prevent its formation and several approaches have been proposed. Given the potential of flap fixation in reducing seroma formation, we performed a meta-analysis of the literature to investigate the role of this approach as definitive gold standard in mastectomy surgery. Inclusion criteria regarded all studies reporting on breast cancer patients undergoing mastectomy with or without axillary lymph node dissection; studies that compared mastectomy with flap fixation to mastectomy without flap fixation were selected. Papers were eligible for inclusion if outcome was described in terms of seroma formation. As secondary outcome, also surgical site infection (SSI) was evaluated. The included studies were 12, involving 1887 female patients: 221/986 (22.41%) patients experienced seroma formation after flap fixation and 393/901 (43.61%) patients had this complication not receiving flap fixation, with a significant statistical difference between the two groups (OR = 0.267, p = 0.001, 95% CI 0.153, 0.464). About, SSI 59/686 (8.6%) in flap fixation group and 67/686 (9.7%) in patients without flap fixation, with no statistical differences between groups (OR = 0.59, p = 0.056, 95% CI 0.344, 1.013).The heterogeneity between included studies does not allow us to reach definitive conclusions but only to suggest the strong evaluation of this approach after mastectomy in seroma preventing and SSI reduction.

Aksjologiczna nieprzejrzystość. O silnych wartościowaniach w dziennikach pisarzy

Rozważam pytanie, czy dzienniki pisarzy ujawniają silne wartościowania w sensie zaproponowanym przez Charlesa Taylora. Wartościowania te są, według tego filozofa, najlepszymi aksjologicznymi wyjaśnieniami własnych preferencji działania, jakie dana osoba potrafi sformułować i przedstawić jako racje swoich preferencji. Ta aksjologiczna świadomość jest nietrywialnym wewnętrznym wyborem spośród wielu możliwych wyjaśnień – samointerpretacją nakierowaną na odsłonięcie źródła dobroci tych wartości, które dana osoba uznaje. Poszukuję śladów tej świadomości w wybranych dziennikach pisarzy. Moje wnioski są sceptyczne. Dzienniki poddają wprawdzie tropy kierujące ku silnie wartościowanym dobrom, lecz tropy te okazują się zbyt chaotyczne i niezdecydowane. Trzeba przyznać rację Davidowi Parkerowi, który poszukiwał fundamentalnej aksjologicznej świadomości raczej w autobiografiach. Tylko zdystansowana refleksja daje szansę na ujawnienie silnych wartościowań. Jest tak pomimo licznych aporii związanych z samowiedzą. Axiological Opacity: On Strong Evaluations in Literary Journals In the present article, I discuss the issue of whether writers’ diaries reveal strong evaluations of their authors. Following Charles Taylor, I understand strong evaluation as the best axiological explanation which a given person is able to formulate and present as the reason for his or her preferences. This axiological awareness is a non-trivial internal choice made from among many possible explanations – it is a self-interpretation aimed at showing the source of the goodness instantiated by the person’s values. In the article, I look for evidence of such awareness in several well-known writers’ diaries. My conclusions are skeptical. Although the journals provide some clues in the search for strong evaluations, they are too chaotic and inconclusive. David Parker believes it more promising to look for fundamental axiological awareness in autobiographies instead. I find his approach correct; distanced reflection seems to be the only chance to reveal strong evaluations. This is despite the aporias involved in self-knowledge.

„Ja”, „my”, „oni” – gramatyka opowieści o sobie. Rozważania w czasie pandemii

Wykorzystując zapis dziennikowy Samuela Pepysa z czasów zarazy panującej w Londynie w połowie XVII wieku, zadajemy pytanie o słabo i mocno wartościujące dyskursy tworzące podmiotowość jednostki w relacji do grupy. W istocie pytamy więc o warunki zaistnienia „osoby”, której życie zachowuje możliwość odwoływania się do „mocnych” pojęć moralnych, co wiąże się z konieczną fazą krytyczną wobec dyskursów hegemonicznych. Podczas analizy tekstu Pepysa postulujemy pojawienie się fazy „my”, umożliwiającej krytyczną refleksję i ocalającej nietrwale „osobę”, wydobywając ją spod petryfikujących dyskursów narzuconych przez społeczne „oni”. Pozwala to „osobie” zaistnieć, odnieść się krytycznie do „wszechrozumienia powszedniego mniemania”; dzieje się to za sprawą odwołania do silnej wartości, jaką jest sprzeciw wobec „okrucieństwa”, ale odwołanie to nie utrzymuje się długo i nie kontynuuje się w dalszych pytaniach. “I,” “We,” “They” – The Grammar of Self-Narrative: Reflections from the Times of Pandemic With the use of journals by Samuel Pepys written during the 17th-century plague epidemic in London, we discuss the issue of weak and strong evaluation discourses which create the subjectivity of an individual in its relation to a group. Our fundamental goal is therefore to discover the conditions indispensable for the emergence of a “person” whose life retains the ability to refer to “strong” moral concepts, which is necessarily connected with a phase of critical approach to hegemonic discourses. In our analysis of the text by Pypus, we postulate the emergence of a “we” phase which allows for critical reflection and temporarily frees a “person” from petrifying discourses imposed by the social “they.” This makes it possible for the “person” to come into existence and critically approach the “understanding of everyday estimations”; this takes place by referring to the strong value of opposition against “cruelty,” but this reference is fleeting and does not endure in further questioning.

Evaluation of Biomass Yield and Nutritional Composition of Soybean (Glycine Max (L.)Merrill) Varieties Grown in Low Land Areas of Eastern Amhara, Ethiopia

The experiment was conducted in three locations Jari, Chefa and Sirinka of Eastern Amhara to select the best performing varieties, in terms of biomass yield, chemical composition, haulm yield, seed yield and other agronomic characteristics of Glycine max (L.) Merrill grown under the rain- fed condition of lowland areas of Eastern Amhara in a randomized complete block design with tree replications. Twelve released soybean varieties were Afgat ,Belesa-95, Boshe , Cheri , Dhidhessa, Gishama , Gizo, Korme, Pawe-03, katta, Wegayen and Wollo were used as a treatments. The seeds were planted in 40 cm between rows and 10 cm between plants on a plot size of 3.2m*4m. Spacing between blocks and plots were 1 and 0.5m, respectively. The seed rate was 60 kg/ha and a fertilizer rate 100 kg/ha NPS was applied during seed planting. The combined analysis of variance over two years at location Jari for dry matter yield of varieties Afgat, Gizo, Pawe-03, Wogayen and Wollo were significantly higher as compared to other soybean varieties. The combined analysis across locations at Jari and Sirinka (2019-second year) showed that varieties Afgat, Gishama, Gizo, Pawe-03, Wogayen and Wollo had higher dry matter yield and varieties Gishama (3.97 t/ha), Gizo (3.60 t/ha), Pawe-03 (4.04 t/ha) and Wogayen (3.36 t/ha) had higher haulm yield as compared with other varieties. The combined analysis across locations at Jari and Sirinka (2019) showed that varieties Pawe-03(2951 kg/ha), Gizo (2862 kg/ha), Afgat (2859 kg/ha), Gishama (2654 kg/ha),Wollo (2461 kg/ha) and Wogayen (2404 kg/ha) had higher seed yield as compared with other varieties. The variety Wollo gave higher crud protein content in two locations (Jari and Sirinka) .Therefore, varieties Afgat, Pawe-03 and Wollo were recommends for the given areas of Jari , Chefa, Sirinka and could be produced in similar environments for the best of produced optimal amount of dry matter, haulm and seed yield and good protein supplement for production of ruminants.Thus, further researches will be needed to investigate on the utilization of livestock.

Evaluation of antibiosis resistance in seven apple cultivars to Eotetranychus frosti (Tetranychidae)

Eotetranychus frosti (McGregor) (Tetranychidae) is a main pest of apple and some fruit trees in Iran. The life table parameters of E. frosti on seven apple cultivars (Red, Golab Kohanz, Gala Imperial, Gala Royal, Fuji, Granny Smith and Golden) at 27±1ºC, 50±10% RH and a photoperiod of 16: 8 (L: D) h were determined. The immature developmental times of E. frosti ranged from 6.50 days on Granny Smith to 18.31 days on Golab Kohanz. The lowest and highest survival rate for whole immature stages was 85.71% and 95.72% on Golab Kohanz and Red, respectively. Fecundity of E. frosti was affected by cultivars; varied from 60.43 eggs on Golab Kohanz to 110.19 eggs on Granny Smith. The intrinsic rate of natural increase (r) varied significantly among different cultivars in which the lowest value (0.119 day-1) was on Golab Kohanz and highest value (0.365 day-1) was on Granny Smith. The mean generation time (T) was shortest on Granny Smith (11.45 days) and longest on Golab Kohanz (30.09 days). According to the results, Granny Smith and Golab Kohanz were susceptible and resistant cultivars, respectively among the ones tested. The findings of this study provide new information that can be used to design a more comprehensive IPM program for this important pest.

Fellow travellers on different paths: A conversation with Charles Taylor

This interview with Charles Taylor explores a central concern throughout his work, namely, his concern to ‘reenchant’ self and world through a careful examination of value as emanating from the world rather than from ourselves. It focuses especially on the status of his central doctrine of ‘strong evaluation’ against the background of mainstream meta-ethical theories, such as neo-Kantian constructivism and robust realist non-naturalism. Additionally, the relationship between Taylor’s theism and his moral–political philosophy is discussed. A key issue that is examined is what ontological background picture can make sense of the strong evaluative experience of higher worth. Some other related issues that are explored revolve around Taylor’s papers ‘Disenchantment-Reenchantment’ and ‘Recovering the Sacred’, which tentatively explore the meaning of reenchantment.

Evaluation of the conservation requirements of Trichoptera from the Tsitsikamma mountain streams in South Africa

A four-season survey of Trichoptera between April 2008 and January 2009, from 20 sites in 11 rivers flowing off the Tsitsikamma mountains in the Eastern and Western Cape, collected 42,683 adults and 6741 larvae, comprising 48 species in 22 genera and 12 families. Trichoptera were the numerically dominant freshwater macroinvertebrate taxon. Of the species collected, 15 are recognised regional Cape Floristic Realm (CFR) endemics. Some specimens of Trichoptera that could not be recognised as described species are now the subject of further studies. Distinct differences between rivers, in terms of species composition of Trichoptera, were noted. The variation in species composition can be partially explained by the physicochemical and ecological attributes of the rivers surveyed. Anthropogenic disturbances were noted in most of the lower reaches of the rivers. The upper reaches of the rivers could be statistically grouped together and thus be considered as a unit for conservation. The highest diversity, 25 species, was recorded from the pristine upper reaches of the Bobbejaans River. An evaluation of conservation requirements identified a number of threats: increased loads of fine sediment and nutrients, higher water temperature regimes, and changes to pH, from the natural acid (pH < 5.5) to neutral or alkaline conditions. Changes in any of these would be detrimental to the survival of many of the endemic Trichoptera in the CFR, and all of these changes would be exacerbated by decreased water-flow volumes. It is thus important to limit the levels of water abstraction from these rivers: to ensure the maintenance of cool temperature and acidic pH regimes while limiting nutrient levels in the rivers. To maintain conservation of the lower reaches of the rivers it is recommended that an ecologically-functional continuity with upstream reaches is maintained to enable the occupation of all zones of the rivers with a diversity of CFR freshwater endemic species. Some CFR Trichoptera were selected as indicators of favourable conditions for the survival and maintenance of viable populations of other CFR-endemic freshwater species.