Confirmation Bias in Simulated Child Sexual Abuse (CSA) Interviews: Abuse Assumption Influences Interviewing and Decision-making Processes

PurposeResearch has shown that confirmation bias plays a role in legal and forensic decision-making processes. However, to our knowledge, no study has examined how it manifests itself when interviewing an allegedly abused child. MethodIn the present study, we used data from a series of experiments in which participants interviewed child avatars to examine how an assumption of abuse based on preliminary information influenced decision-making and interviewing style. Interview training data from eight studies with students, psychologists and police officers were included in the analyses.ResultsWe found that interviewers’ preliminary assumption of sexual abuse having taken place predicted 1) a conclusion of abuse by the interviewers after the interview; 2) higher confidence in their judgment; 3) more frequent use of not recommended question types and 4) a decreased likelihood of reaching a correct conclusion given the same number of available relevant details. ConclusionThe importance of considering how preliminary assumptions of abuse affect interview behaviour and outcomes and the implications for the training of investigative interviewers were discussed.

Discovering the Value of Liberty in Intellectual Property Adjudication: A Methodological Critique of the Reasoning in Discovery Ltd v Liberty Group Ltd 2020 4 SA 160 (GJ)

This article discusses the recent decision in Discovery Ltd v Liberty Group Ltd 2020 4 SA 160 (GJ), which concerned a claim of trade mark infringement in terms of sections 34(1)(a) and 34(1(c) of the Trade Marks Act 194 of 1993 and unlawful competition on a developed reading of the common law. This article argues that the court arrived at the correct conclusion by the incorrect means and failed to adequately construe the array of constitutional interests and considerations that pertained to the matter on the facts. Further, the lack of clarity on the appropriate constitutional port of entry for the judicial enquiry unnecessarily leaves future courts guessing regarding the correct methodology to employ in cases where intellectual property rights are asserted in opposition to constitutional rights and interests. It is argued that the transformative impetus of section 39(2) of the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa, 1996, as well as numerous substantive constitutional provisions are undermined when courts neglect to anchor judicial reasoning in the constitutional context and merely apply a constitutional veneer to whatever outcome has already been reached. Accordingly, we argue that courts are under a general obligation to root all adjudication in constitutional norms and method, which, we submit, secures a thicker concept of the value of liberty than has been produced in this decision.

Towards a pragmatic use of statistics in ecology

Although null hypothesis testing (NHT) is the primary method for analyzing data in many natural sciences, it has been increasingly criticized. Recently, approaches based on information theory (IT) have become popular and were held by many to be superior because it enables researchers to properly assess the strength of the evidence that data provide for competing hypotheses. Many studies have compared IT and NHT in the context of model selection and stepwise regression, but a systematic comparison of the most basic uses of statistics by ecologists is still lacking. We used computer simulations to compare how both approaches perform in four basic test designs (t-test, ANOVA, correlation tests, and multiple linear regression). Performance was measured by the proportion of simulated samples for which each method provided the correct conclusion (power), the proportion of detected effects with a wrong sign (S-error), and the mean ratio of the estimated effect to the true effect (M-error). We also checked if the p-value from significance tests correlated to a measure of strength of evidence, the Akaike weight. In general both methods performed equally well. The concordance is explained by the monotonic relationship between p-values and evidence weights in simple designs, which agree with analytic results. Our results show that researchers can agree on the conclusions drawn from a data set even when they are using different statistical approaches. By focusing on the practical consequences of inferences, such a pragmatic view of statistics can promote insightful dialogue among researchers on how to find a common ground from different pieces of evidence. A less dogmatic view of statistical inference can also help to broaden the debate about the role of statistics in science to the entire path that leads from a research hypothesis to a statistical hypothesis.

Back-to-basics. Cough: causes and diagnosis

Cough is a common complaint and may be a feature of serious underlying disease. A working knowledge of the mechanisms and differential diagnoses is crucial. A carefully taken clinical history followed by a thorough physical examination will often lead to a correct conclusion and confirmatory investigations and in turn to appropriate management.

Application of lidars in the monitoring system of hydrophysical disturbances from moving objects

Object and purpose of research. The object of this research study is a physical phenomenon of lidar observation of hydrophysical disturbances from an object moving underwater confirmed by the scientific discovery registered with Russian Academy of Natural Sciences (RANS). The purpose is to briefly present the phenomenon essence and to validate the feasibility of underwater monitoring system involving lidars. Materials and methods. The work materials is the phenomenon description and publications confirming its reliability. The feasibility of underwater monitoring system employing lidars is validated by model representation of this system as a group of distributed fixed lidars, which record time instants when a moving underwater object is passing by. The navigation task of locating its coordinates and parameters of motion is solved. Main results. The results demonstrate exact solutions to the problem implemented in MATLAB programming system, which confirms that the model is adequate and its software implementation is correct. Conclusion. The purpose of the work to examine the feasibility of lidar underwater monitoring system is achieved. The new scientific results are the problem formulation and the method of solving a navigation problem to find coordinates and parameters of motion from lidar-detected instants of hydrophysical disturbances. A hypothetical lidar-based monitoring system, if verified experimentally that lidars are sufficiently long-range instruments, is a promising idea.

The Effectiveness Of Recruitment Of Civil Services (Asn) In Increasing Performance Of Employees In The Performance Section Of The Province Of Bengkulu

The purpose of this study is to determine the impact of civil servant recruitment on improving the performance of Bengkulu Province civil servant employees. The method used in this study is a descriptive method using a qualitative approach. Data acquisition techniques were conducted by interviewing, observing, and recording documents related to the civil servant recruitment process carried out by Bengkulu local civil servants. The data acquired will be investigated and qualitatively analyzed for all the data collected, and an interview with Duncan's theoretical approach to stress, whose effectiveness can be seen in three indicators: goal achievement, integration, and adaptation Supported by the results of. The results of the field survey came to the correct conclusion as the implementation of labor recruitment carried out by local civil servants in the Bengkulu Province is more transparent and responsible.

Discussion on the Hill Formula

Purpose The purpose of this study reported in this paper was to find the correct Mt/M8 and Dt/a2 data lists of Hill Formula. This paper enumerates several kinds of Hill formula data lists presented in different literatures, and the authors hope to draw the correct conclusion. Design/methodology/approach The eight different forms collected in the research project were compared. The mathematician was asked to give a suggestion from a professional point of view and to arrive at a conclusion. Findings In all eight cases, the third, the eighth and seventh cases are consistent and are considered reasonable and correct. Research limitations/implications First-hand information was not used because of unavailability of the earliest published version of the Hill formula. Practical implications It is helpful to the correct application of Hill formula and the calculation of diffusion coefficient. It is also valuable to the study of dyeing kinetics. Originality/value The research helps to reduce and avoid the confusion in the application of Hill formula in dyeing kinetics research.

As for decision making rules based on research results while forensic science activities

While forensic research, obtained results should be evaluated in order to ensure adoption of correct conclusion regarding the research object. For this purpose forensic experts should use established decision rules to substantiate a statement about conformity of an object or certain requirements, or parameters, or characteristics. Currently, the need to ensure that a decision is made based on results of forensic examination using the concept of decision rules is constantly increasing. Therefore, consideration of the issue of establishing rules for making decisions while forensic science activity at international and national levels is relevant. Relevance of this issue is justified not only by the requirements of ІSO/ IEC 17025:2017 for testing laboratories but by the requirements for the objectivity of expert opinion. ISO/IEC 17025:2017 recognizes that there is no single rule for deciding on conformity. In other words, in a specific situation there will be its own decision making rule. This also applies to forensic science activity. Therefore, this article purpose is necessary for forensic science activity to determine: general guidelines for choosing appropriate decision-making rule; directives for determining the components of decision making rules depending on the object and the task of forensic examination; rules for applying certain requirements to the research results of carried out in accordance with requirements of research methods, research object and the type of quantitative or qualitative research. Thus, this article defines and considers the process of establishing the rules for making decisions, criteria which the rules for m

ANALISIS KESALAHAN SISWA DALAM MENYELESAIKAN SOAL BERDASARKAN TEORI POLYA

This research is motivated by the many mistakes of students in solving math problems, especially math problems in the form of stories. The student's ability to understand the story problem is determined by the student's verbal ability. Verbal ability is the ability to understand word relationships, vocabulary and quickly accept certain words, including remembering words and patterns to form them. Other causes that cause errors in solving math problems are lack of understanding of the questions, less attention to writing symbols and operations, and the absence of writing conclusions. This fact is obtained from the results of interviews with mathematics teachers and classroom observations. This study aims to identify mistakes made by students in solving problems, especially questions in the form of stories with Polya's theory. This research was conducted at one of the MTs in Dander District, Bojonegoro Regency. The research was carried out on three students who had gone through the selection. Students who are selected to be research subjects are students with low, medium, and high categories. This type of research is a qualitative descriptive study with a case study approach. The subjects of this study were several students at seventh-grade level who had passed selection according to the research objectives in 2020. The data collection method was carried out through essay tests and interview tests. The results showed that the students made six mistakes: not understanding the question, choosing the wrong strategy, not paying attention to the amount or unit, not being right in the calculation, not making the correct conclusion, and not making any conclusions. Abstrak Penelitian ini dilatarbelakangi oleh banyaknya kesalahan siswa dalam menyelesaikan soal matematika khususnya soal matematika dalam bentuk cerita. Kemampuan siswa dalam memahami soal cerita di tentukan oleh kemampuan verbal siswa. Kemampuan verbal merupakan kemampuan untuk memahami hubungan kata, kosakata serta menerima dengan cepat kata-kata tertentu termasuk kemampuan mengingat kata-kata dan pola membentuknya. Penyebab lain yang menyebabkan kesalahan dalam menyelesaikan soal matematika yaitu kurang memahami pertanyaan pada soal, kurang memperhatikan penulisan simbol dan operasi serta tidak adanya penulisan kesimpulan. Fakta ini diperoleh dari hasil wawancara dengan guru matematika dan pengamatan dikelas. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi kesalahan yang dilakukan siswa dalam menyelesaikan soal khususnya soal berbentuk cerita dengan teori Polya. Penelitian ini dilaksanakan di salah satu MTs di Kecamatan Dander Kabupaten Bojonegoro. Penelitian dilaksanakan kepada 3 siswa yang telah melalui seleksi. Siswa yang terpilih untuk dijadikan subjek penelitian adalah siswa dengan kategori rendah, sedang dan tinggi. Jenis penelitian ini adalah penelitian deskriptif kualitatif dengan pendekatan studi kasus. Subjek penelitian ini adalah beberapa siswa di jenjang kelas VII yang telah melewati seleksi sesuai tujuan peneliti pada tahun 2020. Metode pengumpulan data dilaksanakan melalui tes essay dan tes wawancara. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa ada enam kesalahan yang dilakukan siswa yaitu tidak memahami pertanyaan, pemilihan strategi yang tidak tepat, tidak memperhatikan besaran atau satuan, tidak tepat dalam perhitungan, tidak tepat dalam menarik kesimpulan dan tidak adanya kesimpulan yang diberikan.

A Cautionary Tale Regarding the Use of Causal Inference to Study How Environmental Change Influences Tropical Diseases

There has been substantial interest on the effect of large-scale environmental change, such as deforestation, on human health. An important and relatively recent development has been the use of causal-inference approaches (e.g., instrumental variables [IVs]) to more properly analyze this type of observational data. Here, we discuss an important study that attempted to disentangle the effect of malaria on deforestation from the effect of deforestation on malaria using an IV approach. The authors found that deforestation increases malaria (e.g., they estimate that a 10% increase in deforestation leads to a 3.3% increase in malaria incidence) through ecological mechanisms, whereas malaria reduces deforestation through socioeconomic mechanisms. An important characteristic of causal-inference approaches is that they are critically dependent on the plausibility of the underlying assumptions and that, differently from standard statistical models, many of these assumptions are not testable. In particular, we show how important assumptions of the IV approach adopted in the study described earlier were not met and that, as a result, it is possible that the correct conclusion could have been the opposite of that reported by the authors (e.g., deforestation decreases, rather than increasing, malaria through ecological mechanisms). Causal-inference approaches may be critical to characterize the relationship between environmental change and disease risk, but conclusions based on these methods can be even more unreliable than those from traditional methods if careful attention is not given to the plausibility of the underlying assumptions.