An Investigation of How Change in Dynamic Risk and Protective Factors Affects the Prediction of Imminent Criminal Recidivism

<p>Dynamic risk and protective factors are changeable, psychosocial variables associated with an increased or decreased likelihood of future criminal behaviour. These variables have an important role in correctional psychology. In particular, they are increasingly central to the management and supervision of individuals released from prison. The changeable nature of these variables means that, with frequent reassessment, the likelihood of recidivism can be monitored during the release period, and intervention can be more carefully targeted to an individual’s needs. However, research has yet to clearly demonstrate that reassessment of dynamic risk and protective factors can accurately track the likelihood of recidivism over time. Further, relatively little is known about how these variables change over time, and how change is associated with recidivism. This thesis set out to investigate whether reassessment of a dynamic risk assessment tool—the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry (DRAOR; Serin, 2007; Serin, Mailloux, & Wilson, 2012)—would enhance the prediction of imminent recidivism among a large sample of high-risk men (n = 966) released from prison on parole in New Zealand. The analyses addressing this question were divided into three primary sections: 1) an investigation of whether a single proximal assessment was a more accurate predictor of imminent recidivism than a single baseline assessment completed shortly after release; 2) an investigation of whether a single proximal assessment was a more accurate predictor of recidivism than a series of aggregated measures across multiple time points, and; 3) an investigation of whether several different measures of intra-individual change demonstrated incremental predictive validity over the most proximal assessment. This approach represented a replication and extension of the framework set out by Lloyd (2015) in a recent thesis for testing whether reassessment of dynamic risk and protective factors enhances the prediction of imminent recidivism. Across all three sections, results provided consistent evidence that the most proximal assessment was the most accurate predictor of imminent recidivism. The most proximal assessment was a significantly more accurate predictor than a baseline assessment, and neither aggregation nor measures of intra-individual change clearly improved predictive accuracy. These results highlight the importance of reassessment for monitoring changes in the likelihood of recidivism over time and have important implications for community correctional agencies who are tasked with managing individuals released from prison, particularly those deemed to be the highest risk of recidivism. The results also have theoretical implications for the concepts of dynamic risk and protective factors and their role in the process leading to recidivism. A better understanding of the recidivism process should lead to intervention strategies that are more effective at reducing recidivism.</p>

An Investigation of How Change in Dynamic Risk and Protective Factors Affects the Prediction of Imminent Criminal Recidivism

<p>Dynamic risk and protective factors are changeable, psychosocial variables associated with an increased or decreased likelihood of future criminal behaviour. These variables have an important role in correctional psychology. In particular, they are increasingly central to the management and supervision of individuals released from prison. The changeable nature of these variables means that, with frequent reassessment, the likelihood of recidivism can be monitored during the release period, and intervention can be more carefully targeted to an individual’s needs. However, research has yet to clearly demonstrate that reassessment of dynamic risk and protective factors can accurately track the likelihood of recidivism over time. Further, relatively little is known about how these variables change over time, and how change is associated with recidivism. This thesis set out to investigate whether reassessment of a dynamic risk assessment tool—the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry (DRAOR; Serin, 2007; Serin, Mailloux, & Wilson, 2012)—would enhance the prediction of imminent recidivism among a large sample of high-risk men (n = 966) released from prison on parole in New Zealand. The analyses addressing this question were divided into three primary sections: 1) an investigation of whether a single proximal assessment was a more accurate predictor of imminent recidivism than a single baseline assessment completed shortly after release; 2) an investigation of whether a single proximal assessment was a more accurate predictor of recidivism than a series of aggregated measures across multiple time points, and; 3) an investigation of whether several different measures of intra-individual change demonstrated incremental predictive validity over the most proximal assessment. This approach represented a replication and extension of the framework set out by Lloyd (2015) in a recent thesis for testing whether reassessment of dynamic risk and protective factors enhances the prediction of imminent recidivism. Across all three sections, results provided consistent evidence that the most proximal assessment was the most accurate predictor of imminent recidivism. The most proximal assessment was a significantly more accurate predictor than a baseline assessment, and neither aggregation nor measures of intra-individual change clearly improved predictive accuracy. These results highlight the importance of reassessment for monitoring changes in the likelihood of recidivism over time and have important implications for community correctional agencies who are tasked with managing individuals released from prison, particularly those deemed to be the highest risk of recidivism. The results also have theoretical implications for the concepts of dynamic risk and protective factors and their role in the process leading to recidivism. A better understanding of the recidivism process should lead to intervention strategies that are more effective at reducing recidivism.</p>

Applying new RDoC dimensions to the development of emotion regulation: Examining the influence of maternal emotion regulation on within-individual change in child emotion regulation

While the Research Domain Criteria (RDoC) acknowledges that environmental and developmental influences represent important elements of the RDoC framework, there is little specificity regarding how and when to systematically examine the impact of these dimensions on domains of function. The primary aims of this paper are to demonstrate the ways in which the RDoC can be expanded to include an explicit emphasis on (a) assessing within-individual change in developmental processes over time and (b) evaluating the extent to which selective and measurable environmental influences drive meaningful change during key developmental periods. We provide data from an ongoing randomized control trial as a proof of concept to highlight how repeated assessments within an experimental intervention design affords the unique opportunity to test the impact of environmental influences on within-individual change. Using preliminary data from 77 mother–child dyads repeatedly assessed across 12 months during the sensitive preschool period, we demonstrate the impact of change in maternal emotion regulation (ER) on within-individual growth in child ER and link that growth to fewer teacher-reported externalizing problems. In line with this Special Issue, findings are discussed within the context of expanding and clarifying the existing RDoC framework to explicitly incorporate environmental and developmental dimensions.

EFFECT OF MEDITATION ON MENTAL HEALTH- A SYSTEMATIC LITERATURE REVIEW

Meditation is increasingly being practiced as a therapeutic technique. It is a practice where an individual uses mindfulness, focusing on a particular object or thing, feeling or thought to train themselves and increase the self-awareness to achieve calm and a clear mind to attain a stable state. Effects of meditation have generally been positiveits estimated that 200–500 million people meditate worldwide. Over 14% of Americans have meditated at least once. Meditation also increased lately and the number of people practising has increased rapidly. There have been several articles, researches and books which have been released. Meditation will help the individual change attitude towards life, and provide peace of mind and happiness. It helps to achieve a better understanding of themselves as well as others. This review focuses on studying and understanding the negative and positive effects of meditation on mental health and how meditation helps in reducing anxiety. It focuses on pros and cons of meditation as well. Meditation depends on individuals and each one of them has a different experience. People have experienced both pleasant and unpleasant experiences.

Co-operative learning as a method for reducing bullying

<p>Evidence from international research suggests that bullying increases as students make the transition to intermediate school. Bullying interventions frequently focus on individual change with little attention paid to the context that supports the behaviour. This pre-experimental case study examined bullying from a contextual perspective. A cooperative learning program was implemented in a Year 7 and Year 8 composite class to investigate if such a program could reduce bullying and increase positive peer interactions among the students. Qualitative and quantitative data were collected using a questionnaire, sociogram, interviews and observations. The results of the study are equivocal because while the questionnaire results and the results from a component of the sociogram indicated increased bullying behaviours, the observations and interviews indicated a decrease in the behaviour. Also, clearer evidence of increased peer interactions came from the interviews and observations than from the sociogram. The implications of this study relate more to the implementation of co-operative learning than to its impact on bullying behaviour. Effective dissemination of co-operative learning requires: fidelity to the methodology, peer support over time, frequent practice, recognition of resistance and a school climate that both supports and fosters its implementation. A list of indicators for effective implementation of co-operative learning is provided in this study.</p>

Co-operative learning as a method for reducing bullying

<p>Evidence from international research suggests that bullying increases as students make the transition to intermediate school. Bullying interventions frequently focus on individual change with little attention paid to the context that supports the behaviour. This pre-experimental case study examined bullying from a contextual perspective. A cooperative learning program was implemented in a Year 7 and Year 8 composite class to investigate if such a program could reduce bullying and increase positive peer interactions among the students. Qualitative and quantitative data were collected using a questionnaire, sociogram, interviews and observations. The results of the study are equivocal because while the questionnaire results and the results from a component of the sociogram indicated increased bullying behaviours, the observations and interviews indicated a decrease in the behaviour. Also, clearer evidence of increased peer interactions came from the interviews and observations than from the sociogram. The implications of this study relate more to the implementation of co-operative learning than to its impact on bullying behaviour. Effective dissemination of co-operative learning requires: fidelity to the methodology, peer support over time, frequent practice, recognition of resistance and a school climate that both supports and fosters its implementation. A list of indicators for effective implementation of co-operative learning is provided in this study.</p>

Interpreting change on the Symbol Digit Modalities Test in people with relapsing multiple sclerosis using the reliable change methodology

Background: The Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT) is increasingly utilized in clinical trials. A SDMT score change of 4 points is considered clinically important, based on association with employment anchors. Optimal thresholds for statistically reliable SDMT changes, accounting for test reliability and measurement error, are yet to be applied to individual cases. Objective: The aim of this study was to derive a statistically reliable marker of individual change on the SDMT. Methods: This prospective, case–control study enrolled 166 patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). SDMT scores at baseline, relapse, and 3-month follow-up were compared between relapsing and stable patient groups. Using data from the stable group and three previously published studies, candidate thresholds for reliable decline were calculated and validated against other tests and a clinically meaningful anchor—cognitive relapse. Results: Candidate thresholds for reliable decline at the 80% confidence level varied between 6 and 11 points. An SDMT change of 8 or more raw score points was deemed to offer the best balance of discriminatory power and external validity for estimating cognitive decline. Conclusion: This study illustrates the feasibility and usefulness of reliable change methodology for identifying statistically meaningful cognitive decline that could be implemented to identify change in individual patients, for both clinical management and clinical trial outcomes.

Serum proBDNF Is Associated With Changes in the Ketone Body β-Hydroxybutyrate and Shows Superior Repeatability Over Mature BDNF: Secondary Outcomes From a Cross-Over Trial in Healthy Older Adults

Background: β-hydroxybutyrate (BHB) can upregulate brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) in mice, but little is known about the associations between BHB and BDNF in humans. The primary aim here was to investigate whether ketosis (i.e., raised BHB levels), induced by a ketogenic supplement, influences serum levels of mature BDNF (mBDNF) and its precursor proBDNF in healthy older adults. A secondary aim was to determine the intra-individual stability (repeatability) of those biomarkers, measured as intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC).Method: Three of the arms in a 6-arm randomized cross-over trial were used for the current sub-study. Fifteen healthy volunteers, 65–75 y, 53% women, were tested once a week. Test oils, mixed in coffee and cream, were ingested after a 12-h fast. Labeled by their level of ketosis, the arms provided: sunflower oil (lowK); coconut oil (midK); caprylic acid + coconut oil (highK). Repeated blood samples were collected for 4 h after ingestion. Serum BDNF levels were analyzed for changes from baseline to 1, 2 and 4 h to compare the arms. Individual associations between BHB and BDNF were analyzed cross-sectionally and for a delayed response (changes in BHB 0–2 h to changes in BDNF at 0–4 h). ICC estimates were calculated from baseline levels from the three study days.Results: proBDNF increased more in highK vs. lowK between 0 and 4 h (z-score: β = 0.25, 95% CI 0.07–0.44; p = 0.007). Individual change in BHB 0–2 h, predicted change in proBDNF 0–4 h, (β = 0.40, CI 0.12–0.67; p = 0.006). Change in mBDNF was lower in highK vs. lowK at 0–2 h (β = −0.88, CI −1.37 to −0.40; p &lt; 0.001) and cumulatively 0–4 h (β = −1.01, CI −1.75 to −0.27; p = 0.01), but this could not be predicted by BHB levels. ICC was 0.96 (95% CI 0.92–0.99) for proBDNF, and 0.72 (CI 0.47–0.89) for mBDNF.Conclusions: The findings support a link between changes in peripheral BHB and proBDNF in healthy older adults. For mBDNF, changes differed between arms but independent to BHB levels. Replication is warranted due to the small sample. Excellent repeatability encourages future investigations on proBDNF as a predictor of brain health.Clinical Trial Registration:ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03904433.

Robustness of Adaptive Measurement of Change to Item Parameter Estimation Error

Adaptive measurement of change (AMC) is a psychometric method for measuring intra-individual change on one or more latent traits across testing occasions. Three hypothesis tests—a Z test, likelihood ratio test, and score ratio index—have demonstrated desirable statistical properties in this context, including low false positive rates and high true positive rates. However, the extant AMC research has assumed that the item parameter values in the simulated item banks were devoid of estimation error. This assumption is unrealistic for applied testing settings, where item parameters are estimated from a calibration sample before test administration. Using Monte Carlo simulation, this study evaluated the robustness of the common AMC hypothesis tests to the presence of item parameter estimation error when measuring omnibus change across four testing occasions. Results indicated that item parameter estimation error had at most a small effect on false positive rates and latent trait change recovery, and these effects were largely explained by the computerized adaptive testing item bank information functions. Differences in AMC performance as a function of item parameter estimation error and choice of hypothesis test were generally limited to simulees with particularly low or high latent trait values, where the item bank provided relatively lower information. These simulations highlight how AMC can accurately measure intra-individual change in the presence of item parameter estimation error when paired with an informative item bank. Limitations and future directions for AMC research are discussed.

Estimating Responders to Treatment Using Five Indices of Significant Individual Change

The authors have requested that this preprint be removed from Research Square.