Intra- and inter-cycle variability of anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) levels in healthy women during non-consecutive menstrual cycles: the BICYCLE study

Objectives Determine variability of serum anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) levels during ovulatory menstrual cycles between different women (inter-participant), between non-consecutive cycles (inter-cycle) and within a single cycle (intra-cycle) in healthy women. Methods Eligible participants were women aged 18–40 years with regular ovulatory menstrual cycles. Serum samples were collected every second day during two non-consecutive menstrual cycles. AMH levels were measured in triplicate using the Elecsys® AMH Plus immunoassay (Roche Diagnostics). AMH level variability was evaluated using mixed-effects periodic regression models based on Fourier series. The mesor was calculated to evaluate inter-participant and inter-cycle variability. Inter- and intra-cycle variability was evaluated using peak-to-peak amplitudes. Separation of biological and analytical coefficients of variation (CVs) was determined by analysing two remeasured AMH levels (with and without original AMH levels). Results A total of 47 women were included in the analysis (42 assessed over two cycles; five one cycle only). CV of unexplained biological variability was 9.61%; analytical variability was 3.46%. Inter-participant variability, given by time-series plots of AMH levels, was greater than inter-cycle variability. Between individual participants, both mesor and peak-to-peak amplitudes proved variable. In addition, for each participant, intra-cycle variability was higher than inter-cycle variability. Conclusions Inter-participant and intra-cycle variability of AMH levels were greater than inter-cycle variability. Unexplained biological variability was higher than analytical variability using the Elecsys AMH Plus immunoassay. Understanding variability in AMH levels may aid in understanding differences in availability of antral ovarian follicles during the menstrual cycle, which may be beneficial in designing gonadotropin dosage for assisted reproductive technology.

Common communicable diseases in the general population in France during the COVID-19 pandemic

In France, social distancing measures have been adopted to contain the spread of COVID-19, culminating in national Lockdowns. The use of hand washing, hydro-alcoholic rubs and mask-wearing also increased over time. As these measures are likely to impact the transmission of many communicable diseases, we studied the changes in common infectious diseases incidence in France during the first year of COVID-19 circulation. We examined the weekly incidence of acute gastroenteritis, chickenpox, acute respiratory infections and bronchiolitis reported in general practitioner networks since January 2016. We obtained search engine query volume for French terms related to these diseases and sales data for relevant drugs over the same period. A periodic regression model was fit to disease incidence, drug sales and search query volume before the COVID-19 period and extrapolated afterwards. We compared the expected values with observations made in 2020. During the first lockdown period, incidence dropped by 67% for gastroenteritis, by 79% for bronchiolitis, by 49% for acute respiratory infection and 90% for chickenpox compared to the past years. Reductions with respect to the expected incidence reflected the strength of implemented measures. Incidence in children was impacted the most. Reduction in primary care consultations dropped during a short period at the beginning of the first lockdown period but remained more than 95% of the expected value afterwards. In primary care, the large decrease in reported gastroenteritis, chickenpox or bronchiolitis observed during the period where many barrier measures were implemented imply that the circulation of common viruses was reduced and informs on the overall effect of these measures.

PSII-2 Daily patterns for respiration rates and internal temperatures of heat stressed lactating sows with or without electronically controlled cooling pads

Lactating sows are especially sensitive to heat stress (HS) due to high metabolic demands resulting from milk output. Therefore, there is a need to develop effective cooling technologies that reduce the impact of HS on lactating sows. The study objective was to determine whether electronically controlled cooling pads (ECP) would allow sows to remain euthermic under HS conditions. Twelve multiparous (2.69 ± 0.85) lactating sows (265.4 ± 26.1 kg) and litters (11.4 ± 0.7 piglets/litter) were assigned to either a non-functional ECP (NECP; n = 6) or an ECP (n = 6), housed in farrowing crates, and tested over two repetitions. Sows were provided feed and water ad libitum and all sows were exposed to HS (28.27 ± 1.42°C nighttime to 35.14 ± 0.70°C daytime). Body temperature (TB), was measured hourly using vaginal implants, and respiration rate (RR) was measured in 30 min intervals from 0600 to 2100 hrs over 2 d representing mid- and late lactation. Mixed model periodic regression equations were fitted to the TB and RR to time. The final model for TB included the effect of replicate, random effect of sow, day of lactation as a covariate, single-phase sine and cosine variables for each treatment and 2-phase sine and cosine periodic regression variables. The final model for RR included the random effect of sow, effect of treatment, replicate, day of lactation, sleeping, and single-phase sine and cosine functions for each treatment. An interaction (P < 0.05) between treatment and sine or cosine was observed for TB. For RR there was no interaction for treatment and cosine (P = 0.07), but an interaction (P < 0.05; -9.94) was observed for sine. The significant treatment by wavelength interactions observed indicate a change in RR and TB patterns when sows are placed on ECPs.

Future trends of COVID-19 disease outbreak in different states in India: a periodic regression analysis

COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 19) is the deadliest pandemic, and by August 2, >18.2 million population worldwide were infected with SARS-CoV-2 virus causing burden on human life and economic loss. Disease outbreak analysis has become a priority for the Indian government to initiate necessary healthcare measures in lowering the impact of this deadly pandemic viral disease. In this study, time series data for COVID-19 disease was extracted from the website www.covid19india.org, analysed by using periodic regression model, the expected number of cases till 02 October 2020 was predicted and to develop a stochastic models using periodic regression in the top 15 highly infected states in India. The analysis reported increasing pattern at initial days of prediction and showed a decreasing trend for the number of reporting cases, which may reduce in future days for states like West Bengal, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Telangana, Assam and Odisha. However, for the states of Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana and Madhya Pradesh, showed a rapid phase of increase in disease outbreak that is likely to infect more population and indicates the pandemic nature of this disease over a period. Presently, Delhi shows a drastic reduction in the number of cases, that may increase in the future, which can be controlled if appropriate preventive measures are followed strictly and effectively. Our model highlights that continuous and constant efforts are needed for the prevention of new infections of the disease in all states that helps to effectively mitigate the disease and to allocate scarce resources effectively in the future that could improve the economic wealth in India.

The diurnal aggregation behavior in Phasmahyla cochranae tadpoles (Anura: Hylidae)

We investigated schooling behavior of Phasmahyla cochranae including its periodicity based on periodic regression models. The school structure and differences between day and night were discussed. We found that tadpoles formed aggregative schools, which were significantly more frequent during the day than at night. During the day, from 06:30 to 18:00 h, tadpoles formed one or two polarized schools at the water surface. Based on these results and on observations of specific behaviors, we suggest that daylight may be a significant environmental factor related to schooling behavior in P. cochranae, although this hypothesis needs to be further investigated.

Global analysis of seasonality in the shell flux of extant planktonic Foraminifera

Shell fluxes of planktonic Foraminifera species vary intra-annually in a pattern that appears to follow the seasonal cycle. However, the variation in the timing and prominence of seasonal flux maxima in space and among species remains poorly constrained. Thus, although changing seasonality may result in a flux-weighted temperature offset of more than 5° C within a species, this effect is often ignored in the interpretation of Foraminifera-based paleoceanographic records. To address this issue we present an analysis of the intra-annual pattern of shell flux variability in 37 globally distributed time series. The existence of a seasonal component in flux variability was objectively characterised using periodic regression. This analysis yielded estimates of the number, timing and prominence of seasonal flux maxima. Over 80% of the flux series across all species showed a statistically significant periodic component, indicating that a considerable part of the intra-annual flux variability is predictable. Temperature appears to be a powerful predictor of flux seasonality, but its effect differs among species. Three different modes of seasonality are distinguishable. Tropical and subtropical species (Globigerinoides ruber (white and pink varieties), Neogloboquadrina dutertrei, Globigerinoides sacculifer, Orbulina universa, Globigerinella siphonifera, Pulleniatina obliquiloculata, Globorotalia menardii, Globoturborotalita rubescens, Globoturborotalita tenella and Globigerinoides conglobatus) appear to have a less predictable flux pattern, with random peak timing in warm waters. In colder waters, seasonality is more prevalent: peak fluxes occur shortly after summer temperature maxima and peak prominence increases. This tendency is stronger in species with a narrower temperature range, implying that warm-adapted species find it increasingly difficult to reproduce outside their optimum temperature range and that, with decreasing mean temperature, their flux is progressively more focussed in the warm season. The second group includes the temperate to cold-water species Globigerina bulloides, Globigerinita glutinata, Turborotalita quinqueloba, Neogloboquadrina incompta, Neogloboquadrina pachyderma, Globorotalia scitula, Globigerinella calida, Globigerina falconensis, Globorotalia theyeri and Globigerinita uvula. These species show a highly predictable seasonal pattern, with one to two peaks a year, which occur earlier in warmer waters. Peak prominence in this group is independent of temperature. The earlier-when-warmer pattern in this group is related to the timing of productivity maxima. Finally, the deep-dwelling Globorotalia truncatulinoides and Globorotalia inflata show a regular and pronounced peak in winter and spring. The remarkably low flux outside the main pulse may indicate a long reproductive cycle of these species. Overall, our analysis indicates that the seasonality of planktonic Foraminifera shell flux is predictable and reveals the existence of distinct modes of phenology among species. We evaluate the effect of changing seasonality on paleoceanographic reconstructions and find that, irrespective of the seasonality mode, the actual magnitude of environmental change will be underestimated. The observed constraints on flux seasonality can serve as the basis for predictive modelling of flux pattern. As long as the diversity of species seasonality is accounted for in such models, the results can be used to improve reconstructions of the magnitude of environmental change in paleoceanographic records.

Global analysis of seasonality in the shell flux of extant planktonic foraminifera

Shell fluxes of planktonic foraminifera species vary intra-annually in a pattern that appears to follow the seasonal cycle. However, the variation in the timing and prominence of seasonal flux maxima in space and among species remain poorly constrained. Thus, although changing seasonality may result in a flux-weighted temperature offset of more than 5 °C within a species, this effect is often ignored in the interpretation of foraminifera-based paleoceanographic records. Here we present an analysis of the intra-annual pattern of shell flux variability in 37 globally distributed time series. The existence of a seasonal component in flux variability was objectively characterised using periodic regression. This analysis yielded estimates of the number, timing and prominence of seasonal flux maxima. Over 80% of the flux series across all species showed a statistically significant periodic component, indicating that a considerable part of the intra-annual flux variability is predictable. Temperature appears to be a powerful predictor of flux seasonality, but its effect differs among species. Three different modes of seasonality are distinguishable. Tropical and subtropical species (G. ruber (white and pink varieties), N. dutertrei, G. sacculifer, O. universa, G. siphonifera, P. obliquiloculata, G. menardii, G. rubescens, G. tenella and G. conglobatus) appear to have a less predictable flux pattern with random peak timing in warm waters. In colder waters, seasonality is more prevalent: peak fluxes occur shortly after summer temperature maxima and peak prominence increases. This tendency is stronger in species with a narrower temperature range, implying that warm-adapted species find it increasingly difficult to reproduce outside their optimum temperature range and that with decreasing mean temperature, their flux is progressively focussed into the warm season. The second group includes the temperate to cold-water species Globigerina bulloides, G. glutinata, N. incompta, N. pachyderma, G. scitula, G. calida, G. falconensis, G. theyeri and G. uvula. These species show a highly predictable seasonal pattern with one to two peaks a year, which occur earlier in warmer waters. Peak prominence in this group is independent of temperature. The earlier-when-warmer pattern in this group is related to the timing of productivity maxima. Finally, the deep dwelling G. truncatulinoides and G. inflata show a regular and pronounced peak in winter/spring. The remarkably low flux outside the main pulse may indicate a long reproductive cycle of these species. Overall, our analysis indicates that the seasonality of planktonic foraminifera shell flux is predictable and reveals the existence of distinct modes of phenology among species. We evaluate the effect of changing seasonality on paleoceanographic reconstructions and find that, irrespective of the seasonality mode, the actual magnitude of environmental change will be underestimated. The observed constraints on flux seasonality can serve as the basis for predictive modelling of flux pattern. As long as the diversity of species seasonality is accounted for in such models, the results can be used to improve reconstructions of the magnitude of environmental change in paleoceanographic records.