On the Nexus Between Environmental Conflict, Migration and Governance: Concluding Remarks

This chapter summarizes the “Environmental conflicts, migration and governance” book’s key insights and reflects on theoretical and methodological challenges tied to the study of the nexus between environmental problems, conflict dynamics, and migration. The author argues that it is not entirely clear what is the most important direction(s) of causality in the environment, conflict, migration nexus. Multiple feedback effects exist that make the interdependencies non-linear in nature, reason why the author calls upon a cybernetic approach to further study the nexus. Understanding the different relations of the variables in this nexus provides entry points for good governance. However, the chapter argues the need to examine the interplay between environmental conflicts, migration and governance more comprehensively and context-specifically.

Climate Change, Conflicts and Migration

This chapter focuses on climate conflicts from a political economy perspective. Using the example of droughts in Somalia, the chapter investigates the different drivers of conflict and fragility over time, as well as the relation of changing actors in conflict, environmental disruptions and mixed migration. The chapter shows that there is no empirical evidence to state that climate change per se will increase the number of conflicts and migration. Instead, pre-existing conflicts exacerbate environmental problems that weaken local and national governance arrangements, as well as society’s capacities to deal with climatic shocks, which then can increase migration. However, the authors argue that these relations have to be seen with caution, as conflict-induced and climate-related migration cannot be yet clearly disentangled empirically. Thus, the authors conclude the need for streamlined, flexible governance measures to address climate conflicts.

Extractive Resources, Conflicts and Migration

This chapter focuses on non-renewable resources and their relation to conflict and migration. It explores the argument that conflict is not brought by scarcity of these resources, but rather by resource abundance and the fact that they make looting possible. Access to valuable non-renewable resources, such as energy resources, can create crises of governance. Accountability decreases and rent seeking and corruption become common behaviors. ‘Lootable’ resources increase the possibilities of high political repression and income inequality, which then cause small and large-scale ‘uprooting’. Thus, tackling the issue of bad governance is key in order to solve migration flows caused by ‘lootable’ conflicts.

Migration Governance at the Global Level: Intergovernmental Organizations and Environmental Change-Induced Migration

This chapter presents insights into global migration governance and maps the management of environmentally induced migration. Focusing on the International Organization for Migration (IOM), the International Labor Organization (ILO), the UN High Commissioner of Refugees (UNHCR), the UN Development Program (UNDP) and UN Environmental Program (UNEP) the author discusses the migration policies of these organizations and their involvement in the negotiation of Global Compacts on migration and refugees. It highlights that migration governance takes place in different international organizations with overlapping mandates and memberships. Also, that their efforts are limited due to sovereignty claims of member states. The chapter concludes by mentioning the achievements and difficulties of environmental migration governance on the international level and how the UN Global Compacts can serve as potential problem solvers.

Migration Governance at the State Level: Policy Developments and Effects

This chapter presents insights into the migration governance of host countries and its effects on immigration flows by drawing on the Immigration Policies in Comparison (IMPIC) dataset. The IMPIC dataset allows to fill a big gap in the literature and to take a closer look at how migration policies have developed over the last decades. The author argues that the immigration policies of OECD countries vary in terms of how liberal or restrictive they are. Between 1980 and 2010 immigration policies on family reunion, labor migration, and asylum have become more liberal. However, the control of these policies has become more restrictive, especially in the EU. Policies are more effective for migrant flows from countries with the same colonial heritage. The author analyzes migration flows in general and argues that while it is not yet possible to study environmental migration separately, it should follow the same pattern.

The Individual Level: Selection Effects

This chapter contributes to the explanation to how environmental migrants are ‘selected’ at the individual and small group level. It argues that individual decisions to migrate depend on the type of environmental change. The author distinguishes between sudden onset environmental problems (e.g. natural disasters) and slow onset environmental problems (e.g. climate change). Sudden onsets make push factors more important- They give migrants less power over their decision to migrate, and therefore include more vulnerable population groups. On the contrary, slow onset events create opportunities for individual agency. Governance can play an important role as it can influence migration and environmental change, especially on the local and state level. The author argues that democratic governance arrangements confer agency to individuals and non-democratic governance delimits it. Moreover, the management of sudden onsets in the short run can be more effective in non-democratic governance, while slow onset environmental changes call for democratic governance arrangements.

Conflict-Prone Minerals, Forced Migration and Norm Dynamics in the Kimberley Process and ICGLR

This chapter examines if and under which conditions natural resource governance regimes can mitigate the likelihood of violent conflicts and, consequently, reduce sources of forced migration. Focusing on the trajectories of the Kimberley Process and the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR), the author specifically examines the norm dynamics in and the effects of these two governance regimes that strive to regulate conflict-prone minerals. By means of a ‘conflict-free mineral norm’ both regimes strive to regulate global supply chains that prevent illegal extractive activities, which have effects on environmental considerations and the violent conflicts that generate forced migration flows. While success rates are moderate, both governance regimes have increased transparency where it did not exist before. The chapter concludes by arguing that further academic research needs to be done to understand the complexities of the environmental-conflict mineral nexus.

Environmental Migration Governance at the Regional Level

This chapter presents insights into regional migration governance. It identifies domestic and international drivers behind regional responses and focuses on Latin America. The authors argue that state responses alone might not be sufficient to regulate migration patterns and respond to related environmental changes. In fact, Latin America has become more sensitive to the implications of environmentally induced migration and has established instruments to face more effectively the challenges posed by environmental changes, natural disasters and migration. Thus, governments have created national and regional responses to migration, some of which explicitly deal with the topic of environmental refugees form the region. The authors also point out that regional governance arrangements are important, as they facilitate the implementation of migration instruments elaborated at the global level and can serve as opportunities to develop and exchange best practices.

The Link between Forced Migration and Conflict

This chapter examines the link between forced migration as a response to environmental degradation on the one hand, and conflict and security in host countries, on the other. From a political science perspective, the authors review existing research on migration as a reason for conflict, with a particular focus on refugees. They show that forced migrants per se do not influence violence in host countries, but only in those cases where refugees are socially and economically marginalized. Also, when aid services are unequally distributed to them and host communities. Thus, the authors highlight the need for governments to pursue inclusionary socio-economic policies towards their population and refugees as a prevention against dangerous tensions. They also present the limitations of current knowledge and indicate future research to solve the challenges associated with forced displacement.

Renewable Resource Scarcity, Conflicts and Migration

Based on an extensive overview of academic debates on renewable resource scarcity, conflict and migration, this chapter examines whether and how scarcity of renewable resources increases the risk of violent conflicts and how this can affect migration flows. The chapter introduces the most important theoretical frameworks that link renewable resource scarcity to conflict and then considers the existing empirical evidence on such linkages. While pathways leading to conflicts are still not well understood and empirical evidence is mixed, the chapter highlights that increased renewable resource scarcity is more likely to lead to low intensity conflicts, which in turn tend to trigger short distance migration. Thus, the role of governance is more effective if it takes place in a variety of institutions and on local and sub-national levels instead of centralized or international governance arrangements. However, the chapter concludes, relationships are complex and context-dependent.