Changes in summer precipitation variability in central Brazil over the past eight decades

Latest drought events and their already visible damage to trees highlight the crucial need to assess the current state and resilience of forest ecosystems in southern Germany. However, commonly applied dendroclimatic approaches rarely take into account, how weather patterns affecting trees are modified by topographic conditions. For this purpose, three main tree species were studied at three low mountain ranges and three corresponding basins in the topographically complex province of Bavaria (southeast Germany). A response analysis between climate proxies and tree-ring widths was used to investigate climate-growth relationships over the past 50 years of both coniferous and deciduous tree species at each forest site. Temporal stability of tree responses to climate was compared for two 25-year periods to detect possible modifications in climate-growth correlations. A pointer year analysis was also conducted to analyze tree response to climatic extreme events. The results showed that Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) was the most vulnerable and least drought-resistant of the investigated tree species. Although Norway spruce (Picea abies) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica) benefited from an extended growing season at high elevation sites, they showed higher drought sensitivity over the past 25 years. Beech responses were rather inhomogeneous and even differed in the optimal precipitation period. However, lower correlation coefficients for summer precipitation at the driest site may indicate the ability of beech to adapt to less summer precipitation. Nevertheless, increasing drought frequency, as predicted, poses a serious threat to all studied tree species, including even the colder and more humid sites. Hence, to more accurately estimate risk potentials under future weather conditions, we will combine dendroclimatological results with climate modelling scenarios, particularly expected future frequencies of critical weather types on the local scale.

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Representation of the Angolan low and Southern African Summer Precipitation in the CORDEX and CMIP5 models.

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12531 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Sabina Abba-Omar ◽

Francesca Raffaele ◽

Erika Coppola ◽

Daniela Jacob ◽

Claas Teichmann ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Regression Analysis ◽

Southern Africa ◽

Summer Precipitation ◽

Precipitation Variability ◽

Cmip5 Models ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Future ◽

Rainfall Patterns ◽

The Impact

The impact of climate change on precipitation over Southern Africa is of particular interest due to its possible devastating societal impacts. To add to this, simulating precipitation is challenging and models tend to show strong biases over this region, especially during the Austral Summer (DJF) months. One of the reasons for this is the mis-representation of the Angolan Low (AL) and its influence on Southern Africa&#8217;s Summer precipitation in the models. Therefore, this study aims to explore and compare different models&#8217; ability to capture the AL and its link to precipitation variability as well as consider the impact climate change may have on this link. We also explore how the interaction between ENSO, another important mode of variability for precipitation, and the Angolan Low, impact precipitation, how the models simulate this and whether this could change in the future under climate change.&#160;We computed the position and strength of the AL in reanalysis data and compared these results to three different model ensembles with varying resolutions. Namely, the CORDEX-CORE ensemble (CCORE), a new phase of CORDEX simulations with higher resolutions (0.22 degrees), the lower resolution (0.44 degrees) CORDEX-phase 1 ensemble (C44) and the CMIP5 models that drive the two RCM ensembles. We also used Self Organizing Maps to group DJF yearly anomaly patterns and identify which combination of ENSO and AL strength scenarios are responsible for particularly wet or dry conditions. Regression analysis was performed to analyze the relationships between precipitation and the AL and ENSO. This analysis was repeated for near (2041-2060) and far (2080-2099) future climate and compared with the present to understand how the strength of the AL, and its connection to precipitation variability and ENSO, changes in the future.&#160;We found that, in line with previous studies, models with stronger AL tend to produce more rainfall. CCORE tends to simulate a stronger AL than C44 and therefore, higher precipitation biases. However, the regression analysis shows us that CCORE is able to capture the relationship between precipitation and the AL strength variability as well as ENSO better than the other ensembles. We found that generally dry rainfall patterns over Southern Africa are associated with a weak AL and El Nino event whereas wet rainfall patterns occur during a strong AL and La Nina year. While the models are able to capture this, they also tend to show more neutral ENSO conditions associated with these wet and dry patterns which possibly indicates less of a connection between AL strength and ENSO than seen in the observed results. Analysis of the future results indicates that the AL weakens, this is shown across all the ensembles and could be a contributing factor to some of the drying seen. These results have applications in understanding and improving model representation of precipitation over Southern Africa as well as providing some insight into the impact of climate change on precipitation and some of its associated dynamics over this region.

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Contribution of Changes in Synoptic‐Scale Circulation Patterns to the Past Summer Precipitation Regime Shift in Eastern China

Geophysical Research Letters ◽

10.1029/2020gl087728 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 47 (12) ◽

Author(s):

Baiquan Zhou ◽

Panmao Zhai ◽

Yang Chen

Keyword(s):

Regime Shift ◽

Eastern China ◽

Summer Precipitation ◽

Synoptic Scale ◽

Precipitation Regime ◽

The Past ◽

Circulation Patterns ◽

Past Summer

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Fast Warming Has Accelerated Snow Cover Loss during Spring and Summer across the Northern Hemisphere over the Past 52 Years (1967–2018)

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos11070728 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (7) ◽

pp. 728

Author(s):

Xuejiao Wu ◽

Yongping Shen ◽

Wei Zhang ◽

Yinping Long

Keyword(s):

Snow Cover ◽

Northern Hemisphere ◽

Spatial Scales ◽

Summer Precipitation ◽

Temperature Changes ◽

The Past ◽

Four Seasons ◽

Snow Cover Extent ◽

Summer Temperatures ◽

Substantial Decline

With snow cover changing worldwide in several worrisome ways, it is imperative to determine both the variability in snow cover in greater detail and its relationship with ongoing climate change. Here, we used the satellite-based snow cover extent (SCE) dataset of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to detect SCE variability and its linkages to climate over the 1967–2018 periods across the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Interannually, the time series of SCE across the NH reveal a substantial decline in both spring and summer (−0.54 and −0.71 million km2/decade, respectively), and this decreasing trend corresponded with rising spring and summer temperatures over high-latitude NH regions. Among the four seasons, the temperature rise over the NH was the highest in winter (0.39 °C/decade, p < 0.01). More precipitation in winter was closely related to an increase of winter SCE in mid-latitude areas of NH. Summer precipitation over the NH increased at a significant rate (1.1 mm/decade, p < 0.01), which likely contribute to the accelerated reduction of summer’s SCE across the NH. However, seasonal sensitivity of SCE to temperature changes differed between the Eurasian and North American continents. Thus, this study provides a better understanding of seasonal SCE variability and climatic changes that occurred at regional and hemispheric spatial scales in the past 52 years.

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Changes in East Asian summer monsoon precipitation during the Holocene deduced from a freshwater flux reconstruction of the Changjiang (Yangtze River) based on the oxygen isotope mass balance in the northern East China Sea

Climate of the Past ◽

10.5194/cp-11-265-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 11 (2) ◽

pp. 265-281 ◽

Cited By ~ 22

Author(s):

Y. Kubota ◽

R. Tada ◽

K. Kimoto

Keyword(s):

East Asian Summer Monsoon ◽

Yangtze River ◽

Asian Summer Monsoon ◽

East Asian ◽

Summer Precipitation ◽

Freshwater Flux ◽

The Holocene ◽

Middle Holocene ◽

The Past ◽

Asian Summer

Abstract. The δ18O of seawater (δ18Ow), an indirect indicator of sea surface salinity (SSS), in the northern East China Sea (ECS) is reconstructed for the Holocene using paired analyses of Mg / Ca ratio and δ18O of planktic foraminiferal tests. According to modern observation, interannual variations in SSS during summer in the northern ECS are mainly controlled by the Changjiang (Yangtze River) discharge, which reflects summer rainfall in its drainage basin. Thus, changes in the summer SSS in the northern ECS are interpreted as reflecting variations in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation in the Changjiang Basin. This interpretation is confirmed by a strong relationship between the SSS in the northern ECS and the Changjiang discharge during the wet season (May–October) based on instrumental salinity records from 1951 to 2000. However, it is difficult to estimate absolute salinity values in the past with high accuracy, because the past salinity–δ18Ow regression slope, end member salinity, and δ18Ow values are not well understood. Here, we conduct δ18Ow mass-balance calculation to estimate the freshwater contribution to the surface water of the northern ECS during the last 7 kyr by assuming a simple mixing between two end members – the seawater and the Changjiang freshwater. The result indicates that there has been no gradual decreasing secular trend in the Changjiang freshwater flux from the middle Holocene to the present day, suggesting that summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere does not regulate the EASM precipitation in the Changjiang Basin. Instead, internal feedback appears to have been more important during the Holocene. The absence of a decreasing trend in regional summer precipitation over the Changjiang Basin since the middle Holocene is contradictory to Chinese speleothems' δ18O records, suggesting that it is not possible to explain orbital changes in Chinese speleothems' δ18O during the Holocene by changes in summer precipitation, but that such changes are related to other factors such as changes in the moisture source.

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Characterizing Precipitation Variability and Trends in the World’s Mediterranean-Climate Areas

Water ◽

10.3390/w9040259 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 9 (4) ◽

pp. 259 ◽

Cited By ~ 25

Author(s):

Matthew Deitch ◽

Michele Sapundjieff ◽

Shane Feirer

Keyword(s):

Mediterranean Climate ◽

Quality Criteria ◽

Summer Precipitation ◽

Northern Italy ◽

Dry Season ◽

Annual Precipitation ◽

Climate Type ◽

The Past ◽

The Mediterranean ◽

The Mediterranean Basin

The Mediterranean climate is principally characterized by warm, dry summers and cool, wet winters. However, there are large variations in precipitation dynamics in regions with this climate type. We examined the variability of precipitation within and among Mediterranean-climate areas, and classified the Mediterranean climate as wet, moderate, or dry based on annual precipitation; and strongly, moderately, or weakly seasonal based on percentage of precipitation during summer. Mediterranean biomes are mostly dry (<700 mm annually) but some areas are wet (>1300 mm annually); and many areas are weakly seasonal (>12% of annual precipitation during summer). We also used NOAA NCDC climate records to characterize interannual variability of annual and dry-season precipitation, as well as trends in annual, winter, and dry-season precipitation for 337 sites that met the data quality criteria from 1975 to 2015. Most significantly, sites in many Mediterranean-climate regions show downward trends in annual precipitation (southern California, Spain, Australia, Chile, and Northern Italy); and most of North America, the Mediterranean basin, and Chile showed downward trends in summer precipitation. Variations in annual and summer precipitation likely contribute to the high biodiversity and endemism characteristic of Mediterranean-climate biomes; the data indicate trends toward harsher conditions over the past 40 years.

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Evaluation of CMIP6 Model Precipitation Variability Through Compositing in Cloud-defined Weather States

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-19865 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

George Tselioudis ◽

Jasmine Remillard

Keyword(s):

Vertical Velocity ◽

Precipitation Variability ◽

Precipitation Field ◽

The Past ◽

Model Skill ◽

Model Precipitation

In order to understand the mechanisms determining precipitation variability and to evaluate model skill in simulating those mechanisms, it is important to partition the precipitation field into regimes that include distinct sets of processes. In the past, dynamic fields like omega and SLP have been used to define regimes and study cloud, radiation, and precipitation variability. More recently, cloud-defined weather states were derived and used for similar analyses. Here, we apply a new cloud-defined Weather State dataset derived from the higher-resolution ISCCP-H data to examine precipitation variability at global scales and evaluate CMIP6 model precipitation simulations . In addition, precipitation partitioning using mid-tropospheric vertical velocity is performed, and the differences between the results of the two compositing methodologies are discussed.

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