Forecast of abnormally high solar activity in the next century and of its possible negative effects on the earth

1987 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miloslav Kopecký ◽  
V. Bucha
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
High Solar Activity ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
The Earth

scholarly journals Comparison of accelerometer data calibration methods used in thermospheric neutral density estimation

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 761-779 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristin Vielberg ◽  
Ehsan Forootan ◽  
Christina Lück ◽  
Anno Löcher ◽  
Jürgen Kusche ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Radiation Pressure ◽  
Precise Orbit Determination ◽  
High Solar Activity ◽  
Neutral Density ◽  
Accelerometer Data ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Calibration Methods ◽  
Leo Satellites ◽  
Gravity Recovery

Abstract. Ultra-sensitive space-borne accelerometers on board of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites are used to measure non-gravitational forces acting on the surface of these satellites. These forces consist of the Earth radiation pressure, the solar radiation pressure and the atmospheric drag, where the first two are caused by the radiation emitted from the Earth and the Sun, respectively, and the latter is related to the thermospheric density. On-board accelerometer measurements contain systematic errors, which need to be mitigated by applying a calibration before their use in gravity recovery or thermospheric neutral density estimations. Therefore, we improve, apply and compare three calibration procedures: (1) a multi-step numerical estimation approach, which is based on the numerical differentiation of the kinematic orbits of LEO satellites; (2) a calibration of accelerometer observations within the dynamic precise orbit determination procedure and (3) a comparison of observed to modeled forces acting on the surface of LEO satellites. Here, accelerometer measurements obtained by the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) are used. Time series of bias and scale factor derived from the three calibration procedures are found to be different in timescales of a few days to months. Results are more similar (statistically significant) when considering longer timescales, from which the results of approach (1) and (2) show better agreement to those of approach (3) during medium and high solar activity. Calibrated accelerometer observations are then applied to estimate thermospheric neutral densities. Differences between accelerometer-based density estimations and those from empirical neutral density models, e.g., NRLMSISE-00, are observed to be significant during quiet periods, on average 22 % of the simulated densities (during low solar activity), and up to 28 % during high solar activity. Therefore, daily corrections are estimated for neutral densities derived from NRLMSISE-00. Our results indicate that these corrections improve model-based density simulations in order to provide density estimates at locations outside the vicinity of the GRACE satellites, in particular during the period of high solar/magnetic activity, e.g., during the St. Patrick's Day storm on 17 March 2015.

scholarly journals Response of the Antarctic Ionosphere to Some Intense Geomagnetic Storms

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 16-28
Author(s):  
Gustavo A. Mansilla
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Geomagnetic Storms ◽  
Recovery Phase ◽  
High Solar Activity ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Storm Effects ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Physical Mechanisms ◽  
Last Stage ◽  
The Antarctic

Background:The effect of geomagnetic storms on the mid-high latitude F2 region is studied.Method:For this purpose, foF2 data from four Antarctic stations were analyzed during three intense magnetic storms occurred in high solar activity (years 2002 and 2003). In general, negative storm effects irrespective of the local time were observed during the first part of the storms (main phase). Negative effects were also observed more often than positive effects during the first part of the recovery phase, which seems to indicate almost no longitudinal dependence in this stage of the storm.Conclusion:The negative effects frequently changed to positive during the last stage of the recovery. Several physical mechanisms were operative during the different stages of the storms.

MEDIUM-TERM OSCILLATIONS OF THE SOLAR ACTIVITY

2021 ◽  
Vol 44 ◽  
pp. 85-91
Author(s):  
V.N. Obridko ◽  
◽  
D.D. Sokoloff ◽  
V.V. Pipin ◽  
A.S. Shibalova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Activity Cycle ◽  
Solar Interior ◽  
Local Fields ◽  
Lower Atmosphere ◽  
High Solar Activity ◽  
Dynamo Model ◽  
Sunspot Activity ◽  
Geomagnetic Variations ◽  
Near Surface

In addition to the well-known 11-year cycle, longer and shorter characteristic periods can be isolated in variations of the parameters of helio-geophysical activity. Periods of about 36 and 60 years were revealed in variations of the geomagnetic activity and an approximately 60-year periodicity, in the evolution of correlation between the pressure in the lower atmosphere and the solar activity. Similar periods are observed in the cyclonic activity. Such periods in the parameters of the solar activity are difficult to identify because of a limited database available; however, they are clearly visible in variations of the asymmetry of the sunspot activity in the northern and southern solar hemispheres. In geomagnetic variations, one can also isolate oscillations with the characteristic periods of 5-6 years (QSO) and 2-3 years (QBO). We have considered 5-6-year periodicities (about half the main cycle) observed in variations of the sunspot numbers and the intensity of the dipole component of the solar magnetic field. A comparison with different magnetic dynamo models allowed us to determine the possible origin of these oscillations. A similar result can be reproduced in a dynamo model with nonlinear parameter variations. In this case, the activity cycle turns out to be anharmonic and contains other periodicities in addition to the main one. As a result of the study, we conclude that the 5-6-year activity variations are related to the processes of nonlinear saturation of the dynamo in the solar interior. Quasi-biennial oscillations are actually separate pulses related little to each other. Therefore, the methods of the spectral analysis do not reveal them over large time intervals. They are a direct product of local fields, are generated in the near-surface layers, and are reliably recorded only in the epochs of high solar activity.

scholarly journals Self-Organization of Water Molecules Over 11-Year Solar Cycle

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Igor Shevchenko
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Water Clusters ◽  
The Self ◽  
Self Organization ◽  
Water Molecules ◽  
Annual Variations ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Rate Of Hydrolysis ◽  
Rotation Of The Earth ◽  
Northern And Southern Hemispheres

Abstract The variations of solar activity and distribution of solar energy due to the rotation of the Earth around its axis and around the Sun exert a strong influence on the self-organization of water molecules. As a result, the rate of hydrolytic processes with the participation of water clusters displays diurnal, very large annual variations, and is also modulated by the 11-year cycles of solar activity. It also depends on the geographic latitude and can be different at the same time in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. This phenomenon is well accounted for by the influence of muons on the self-organization of water molecules. Muons are constantly generated in the upper atmosphere by the solar wind. They reach the surface of the Earth and can penetrate to some depth underground. Buildings also absorb muons. For this reason, the rate of hydrolysis outside and inside buildings, as well as underground, can differ significantly from each other.

scholarly journals A Neural Network-Based TEC Model Capable of Reproducing Nighttime Winter Anomaly

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (22) ◽  
pp. 4559
Author(s):  
Marjolijn Adolfs ◽  
Mohammed Mainul Hoque
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Solar Activity ◽  
Geomagnetic Latitude ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
High Solar Activity ◽  
Electron Content ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Total Electron ◽  
The Neural Network ◽  
Winter Anomaly

With the availability of fast computing machines, as well as the advancement of machine learning techniques and Big Data algorithms, the development of a more sophisticated total electron content (TEC) model featuring the Nighttime Winter Anomaly (NWA) and other effects is possible and is presented here. The NWA is visible in the Northern Hemisphere for the American sector and in the Southern Hemisphere for the Asian longitude sector under solar minimum conditions. During the NWA, the mean ionization level is found to be higher in the winter nights compared to the summer nights. The approach proposed here is a fully connected neural network (NN) model trained with Global Ionosphere Maps (GIMs) data from the last two solar cycles. The day of year, universal time, geographic longitude, geomagnetic latitude, solar zenith angle, and solar activity proxy, F10.7, were used as the input parameters for the model. The model was tested with independent TEC datasets from the years 2015 and 2020, representing high solar activity (HSA) and low solar activity (LSA) conditions. Our investigation shows that the root mean squared (RMS) deviations are in the order of 6 and 2.5 TEC units during HSA and LSA period, respectively. Additionally, NN model results were compared with another model, the Neustrelitz TEC Model (NTCM). We found that the neural network model outperformed the NTCM by approximately 1 TEC unit. More importantly, the NN model can reproduce the evolution of the NWA effect during low solar activity, whereas the NTCM model cannot reproduce such effect in the TEC variation.

scholarly journals Characterization of ionospheric irregularities over Vietnam and adjacent region for the 2008-2018 period

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dung Nguyen Thanh ◽  
Minh Le Huy ◽  
Christine Amory-Mazaudier ◽  
Rolland Fleury ◽  
Susumu Saito ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Occurrence Rate ◽  
High Solar Activity ◽  
Electron Content ◽  
Total Electron ◽  
Plasma Irregularities ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Continuous Gps

This paper presents the variations of the rate of change of Total Electron Content (TEC) index (ROTI), characterizing the occurrence of ionospheric plasma irregularities over Vietnam and neighboring countries in the Southeast Asian region using the continuous GPS data during the 2008-2018 period. The results showed that the occurrence of strong ROTI in all stations is maximum in equinox months March/April and September/October and depends on solar activity. The ROTI is weak during periods of low solar activity and strong during periods of high solar activity. There is an asymmetry between the two equinoxes. During maximum and declining phases of 2014-2016, occurrence rates in March equinox are larger than in September equinox, but during the descending period of 2010-2011, the occurrence rates in September equinox at almost all stations are larger than in March equinox. The correlation coefficients between the monthly occurrence rate of irregularities and the F10.7 solar index at the stations in the equatorward EIA crest region are higher than at those in the magnetic equatorial and the poleward EIA crest regions. The irregularity occurrence is high in the pre-midnight sector, maximum between 2000 LT to 2200 LT. The maximum irregularity occurrence is located around 4-5° degrees in latitude equator-ward away from the anomaly crests.

scholarly journals New possibilities of the PCA-Seq method in the analysis of time series (on the example of solar activity)

2021 ◽  
Vol 2099 (1) ◽  
pp. 012034
Author(s):  
V M Efimov ◽  
K V Efimov ◽  
D A Polunin ◽  
V Y Kovaleva
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Solar Activity ◽  
Maunder Minimum ◽  
High Solar Activity ◽  
External Influence ◽  
Average Period ◽  
Time Axis ◽  
Constant Amplitude ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Analysis Of Time Series

Abstract When analyzing a 1D time series, it is traditional to represent it as the sum of the trend, cyclical components and noise. The trend is seen as an external influence. However, the impact can be not only additive, but also multiplicative. In this case, not only the level changes, but also the amplitude of the cyclic components. In the PCA-Seq method, a generalization of SSA, it is possible to pre-standardize fragments of a time series to solve this problem. The algorithm is applied to the Anderson series – a sign alternating version of the well-known Wolf series, reflecting the 22-year Hale cycle. The existence of this cycle is not disputed at high solar activity, but there are doubts about the constancy of its period at this time, as well as its existence during the epoch of low solar activity. The processing of the series by the PCA-Seq method revealed clear oscillations fluctuations of almost constant amplitude with an average period of 21.9 years, and it was found that the correlation of these oscillations with the time axis for 300 years does not differ significantly from zero. This confirms the hypothesis of the existence of 22-year oscillations in solar activity even at its minima, like the Maunder minimum.

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