scholarly journals Accounting for the surface temperature persistence by using signal energy

2021 ◽  
Vol 144 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 363-377
Author(s):  
Jiangnan Li ◽  
Zhian Sun ◽  
Feng Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Critical Exponent ◽  
Random Noise ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Signal Energy ◽  
The North ◽  
Power Rule ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Temporal Intervals

AbstractThe autocorrelation function (ACF) and its finite Fourier transform, referred to as signal energy, have been investigated using the ECMWF daily surface temperature data. ACF itself provides a measure of the influence of leading fluctuation between two different time points. Considering the decay of ACF, it is found that the scaling power-rule of ACF is only valid in a very short period, as the decay of ACF exists before it reaches a random noise state. Therefore, the method of the critical exponent of ACF is limited in the short length of the temporal interval. On the other hand, the distributions of the signal energy always show nice patterns, indicating the degree of persistence change. It is found, for a short period, that the distributions of the signal energy and the critical exponent are very similar, with a correlation coefficient over 0.97. For a longer period, though the critical exponent of ACF becomes invalid, the signal energy can always provide an effective method to investigate climate persistence in different lengths of time. In a 5-day period of boreal winter, the southern part of North America has a larger value of signal energy compared to the northern part; thus, the surface temperature is more stable in the north part. The result becomes opposite in the boreal summer. The method of signal energy can also be applied to a particular interval of time. In different temporal intervals, the signal energy presents very different results, especially over the El Nino regions

scholarly journals Water Vapor Fluxes over the Intra-Americas Sea: Seasonal and Interannual Variability and Associations with Rainfall

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (9) ◽  
pp. 1910-1922 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto M. Mestas-Nuñez ◽  
David B. Enfield ◽  
Chidong Zhang
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
The North ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Low Level Jet ◽  
The Caribbean

Abstract The seasonal and interannual variability of moisture transports over the Intra-Americas Sea (including the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea) is evaluated using the NCEP–NCAR global reanalysis. The seasonal variability of these moisture transports is consistent with previous studies and shows distinctive winter and summer regimes. Boreal winter moisture is mainly delivered to the central United States from the Pacific with some contribution from the Gulf of Mexico. It is during the boreal summer that the moisture flow over the Intra-Americas Sea is most effective in supplying the water vapor to the central United States via the northern branch of the Caribbean low-level jet. The increase of intensity of this jet during July is associated with an increase in evaporation over the Intra-Americas Sea, consistent with midsummer drought conditions over this region. During both summer and winter, the interannual variability of the inflow of moisture from the Intra-Americas Sea into central United States is associated with Caribbean low-level jet variability. The source of the varying moisture is mainly the Gulf of Mexico and the North Atlantic area just east of the Bahamas Islands and the sink is precipitation over east-central United States. The main teleconnection pattern for these interannual variations appears to be the Pacific–North American, although in boreal winter ENSO and possibly the North Atlantic Oscillation may also play a role. During boreal summer, associations with ENSO mainly involve the zonal moisture exchange between the Intra-Americas Sea/tropical Atlantic and the tropical Pacific.

scholarly journals Temporal–Spatial Distribution of Thin Moist Layers in the Midtroposphere over the Tropical Eastern Pacific

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (19) ◽  
pp. 5102-5114
Author(s):  
Shigenori Otsuka ◽  
Shigeo Yoden
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Annual Variation ◽  
Intertropical Convergence Zone ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Tropical Eastern Pacific ◽  
Local Maxima ◽  
The North ◽  
The Vertical Distribution

Abstract The temporal–spatial distribution of thin moist layers in the midtroposphere over the tropical eastern Pacific is studied by data analyses of radiosonde soundings and downscaling numerical experiments with a regional model. Radiosonde soundings at San Cristóbal, Galápagos, show frequent existence of thin moist layers between 2 and 10 km in altitude, with a local minimum at 7–8 km. The downscaling experiments with global objective analyses are completed for 2005–06, September and December of 1999–2004, and March of 2000–04. The vertical distribution of thin moist layers has three local maxima at 5, 10, and 16 km, where bimodality of the frequency distribution of water vapor is evident. Between 4 and 7 km, an annual variation is dominant in the occurrence ratio of thin moist layers, which tend to appear in nonconvective regions. In boreal winter, the layers appear to the north of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), whereas in boreal summer the layers appear in the equator-side of the ITCZ. Interannual variations of the appearance of thin moist layers are also studied in 1999–2006, based on the experiments for particular months (March, September, and December). The occurrence ratio is generally high in December and March and low in September. In La Niña years, the annual variation is smaller than that in El Niño years; the occurrence ratio is higher in boreal summer to the south of the ITCZ.

scholarly journals Circumglobal Response to Prescribed Soil Moisture over North America

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (14) ◽  
pp. 4525-4545 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haiyan Teng ◽  
Grant Branstator ◽  
Ahmed B. Tawfik ◽  
Patrick Callaghan
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
North America ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
North Pacific Ocean ◽  
Stationary Wave ◽  
High Impact ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Dry Land ◽  
The North

Abstract A series of idealized prescribed soil moisture experiments is performed with the atmosphere/land stand-alone configuration of the Community Earth System Model, version 1, in an effort to find sources of predictability for high-impact stationary wave anomalies observed in recent boreal summers. We arbitrarily prescribe soil water to have a zero value at selected domains in the continental United States and run 100-member ensembles to examine the monthly and seasonal mean response. Contrary to the lack of a substantial response in the boreal winter, the summertime circulation response is robust, consistent, and circumglobal. While the stationary wave response over the North America and North Atlantic sectors can be well explained by the reaction of a linear dynamical system to heating anomalies caused by the imposed dry land surface, nonlinear processes involving synoptic eddies play a crucial role in forming the remote response in Eurasia and the North Pacific Ocean. A number of other possible factors contributing to the circulation responses are also discussed. Overall, the experiments suggest that, in the boreal summer, soil moisture may contribute to the predictability of high-impact stationary wave events, which can impact regions that are great distances from these source regions.

scholarly journals Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecasting of Tropical Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies: Potential Predictability and Barriers

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (13) ◽  
pp. 3320-3343 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roxana C. Wajsowicz
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
The West ◽  
Potential Predictability ◽  
Boreal Spring

Abstract Whether seasonally phased-locked persistence and predictability barriers, similar to the boreal spring barriers found for El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), exist for the tropical Indian Ocean sector climate is investigated using observations and hindcasts from two coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamical ensemble forecast systems: the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System (CFS) for 1990–2003, and the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) system for 1993–2002. The potential predictability of the climate is also assessed under the “perfect model/ensemble” assumption. Lagged correlations of the indices calculated over the east and west poles of the Indian Ocean dipole mode (IDM) index show weak sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) persistence barriers in boreal spring at both poles, but the major decline in correlation at the east pole occurs in boreal midwinter for all start months with an almost immediate recovery, albeit negative correlations, until summer approaches. Processes responsible for the change in sign of SSTAs associated with a major IDM event effect a similar change on much weaker SSTAs. At the west pole, a major decline occurs at the end of boreal summer for fall and winter starts when the thermocline deepens with the seasonal cycle and coupling between the ocean and atmosphere is weak. A decline in skillful prediction of SSTA at the east pole over boreal winter is also found in the hindcasts, but the relatively large thermocline depth anomalies are skillfully predicted through this time and skill in SSTA prediction returns. A predictability barrier at the onset of the boreal summer monsoon is found at both IDM poles with some return of skill in late fall. Potential predictability calculations suggest that this barrier may be overcome at the west pole with improvements to the forecast systems, but not at the east pole for forecasts initiated in boreal winter unless the ocean is initialized with a memory of fall conditions.

scholarly journals Change In The Variability In The Western Pacific Pattern During Boreal Winter: Roles of Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies And North Pacific Storm Track Activity

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hasi Aru ◽  
Shangfeng Chen ◽  
Wen Chen
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
High Variability ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
The North ◽  
The Western Pacific ◽  
The North Pacific ◽  
North Pacific Storm Track

Abstract Using multiple reanalysis datasets, this study reveals that the variability in the Western Pacific pattern (WP) in boreal winter has shown notable changes during recent decades. The variability in the winter WP exhibited a marked weakening trend before the early 2000s and increased slightly thereafter. Two epochs with the highest and lowest WP variabilities are selected for a comparative analysis. Winter WP-related meridional dipole atmospheric anomalies over the North Pacific were stronger and had a broader range during the high-variability epoch than during the low-variability epoch. Correspondingly, the winter WP had larger impacts on surface temperature variations over Eurasia and North America during the high-variability epoch than during the low-variability epoch. We find that the shift in the winter WP variability is closely related to changes in the connection between the winter WP and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and to changes in the amplitude of the North Pacific storm track. Specifically, ENSO had a closer connection with the WP during the high-variability epoch, at which time the amplitude of the North Pacific storm track was also stronger. During the high-variability epoch, the extratropical atmospheric anomalies generated by the tropical ENSO shifted westward and projected more on the WP-related atmospheric anomalies, thus contributing to an increase in WP variability. In addition, the larger amplitude of the North Pacific storm track that occurred during the high-variability epoch led to the stronger feedback of synoptic-scale eddies to the mean flow and contributed to stronger WP variability. Further analysis indicates that the change in the connection of ENSO with the WP may be partly related to the zonal shift of the sea surface temperature anomaly in the tropical Pacific associated with ENSO.

scholarly journals Estimate of the Predictability of Boreal Summer and Winter Intraseasonal Oscillations from Observations

2011 ◽  
Vol 139 (8) ◽  
pp. 2421-2438 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruiqiang Ding ◽  
Jianping Li ◽  
Kyong-Hwan Seo
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Intraseasonal Variability ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Potential Predictability ◽  
The North ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillations ◽  
The North Pacific

AbstractTropical intraseasonal variability (TISV) shows two dominant modes: the boreal winter Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO). The two modes differ in intensity, frequency, and movement, thereby presumably indicating different predictabilities. This paper investigates differences in the predictability limits of the BSISO and the boreal winter MJO based on observational data. The results show that the potential predictability limit of the BSISO obtained from bandpass-filtered (30–80 days) outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), 850-hPa winds, and 200-hPa velocity potential is close to 5 weeks, comparable to that of the boreal winter MJO. Despite the similarity between the potential predictability limits of the BSISO and MJO, the spatial distribution of the potential predictability limit of the TISV during summer is very different from that during winter. During summer, the limit is relatively low over regions where the TISV is most active, whereas it is relatively high over the North Pacific, North Atlantic, southern Africa, and South America. The spatial distribution of the limit during winter is approximately the opposite of that during summer. For strong phases of ISO convection, the initial error of the BSISO shows a more rapid growth than that of the MJO. The error growth is rapid when the BSISO and MJO enter the decaying phase (when ISO signals are weak), whereas it is slow when convection anomalies of the BSISO and MJO are located in upstream regions (when ISO signals are strong).

scholarly journals The Seasonal Effects of ENSO on European Precipitation: Observational Analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (17) ◽  
pp. 6423-6438 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey Shaman
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Seasonal Effects ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Storm Activity ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract An analysis and characterization of seasonal changes in the atmospheric teleconnection between ENSO and western European precipitation, as well as atmospheric conditions over the North Atlantic and Europe, are presented. Significant ENSO-associated changes in precipitation are evident during the boreal spring and fall seasons, marginal during boreal summer, and absent during boreal winter. The spring and fall precipitation anomalies are accompanied by statistically significant ENSO-related changes in large-scale fields over the North Atlantic and Europe. These seasonal teleconnections appear to be mediated by changes in upper tropospheric conditions along the coast of Europe that project down to the lower troposphere and produce onshore or offshore moisture flux anomalies, depending on the season. Some ENSO-related changes in storm activity are also evident during fall and winter. Analyses during boreal winter reveal little effect of coincident ENSO conditions on either European precipitation or upper tropospheric conditions over Europe.

scholarly journals How warm was the last interglacial? New model–data comparisons

2013 ◽  
Vol 371 (2001) ◽  
pp. 20130097 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner ◽  
Nan Rosenbloom ◽  
Emma J. Stone ◽  
Nicholas P. McKay ◽  
Daniel J. Lunt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Surface Temperature Change ◽  
The North ◽  
Proxy Reconstructions

A Community Climate System Model, Version 3 (CCSM3) simulation for 125 ka during the Last Interglacial (LIG) is compared to two recent proxy reconstructions to evaluate surface temperature changes from modern times. The dominant forcing change from modern, the orbital forcing, modified the incoming solar insolation at the top of the atmosphere, resulting in large positive anomalies in boreal summer. Greenhouse gas concentrations are similar to those of the pre-industrial (PI) Holocene. CCSM3 simulates an enhanced seasonal cycle over the Northern Hemisphere continents with warming most developed during boreal summer. In addition, year-round warming over the North Atlantic is associated with a seasonal memory of sea ice retreat in CCSM3, which extends the effects of positive summer insolation anomalies on the high-latitude oceans to winter months. The simulated Arctic terrestrial annual warming, though, is much less than the observational evidence, suggesting either missing feedbacks in the simulation and/or interpretation of the proxies. Over Antarctica, CCSM3 cannot reproduce the large LIG warming recorded by the Antarctic ice cores, even with simulations designed to consider observed evidence of early LIG warmth in Southern Ocean and Antarctica records and the possible disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Comparisons with a HadCM3 simulation indicate that sea ice is important for understanding model polar responses. Overall, the models simulate little global annual surface temperature change, while the proxy reconstructions suggest a global annual warming at LIG (as compared to the PI Holocene) of approximately 1 ° C, though with possible spatial sampling biases. The CCSM3 SRES B1 (low scenario) future projections suggest high-latitude warmth similar to that reconstructed for the LIG may be exceeded before the end of this century.

scholarly journals The LGM surface climate and atmospheric circulation over East Asia and the North Pacific in the PMIP2 coupled model simulations

2007 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 655-678 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Yanase ◽  
A. Abe-Ouchi
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
The North ◽  
Surface Climate ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract. The surface climate and atmospheric circulation over East Asia and the North Pacific at the last glacial maximum has been investigated using the outputs from several coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model in PMIP2 database. In boreal summer, the weakening of high pressure over the North Pacific and less precipitation over East Asia are analyzed in most models. The reduced moisture transport seems to result in the less precipitation over East Asia. In boreal winter, the intensification of the Aleutian low and southward shift of the upper-level jet are analyzed in most models. Some of these results are consistent with geological records such as pollen, lake status and dust transport.

scholarly journals Climatological water balance and climate classification of thornthwaite and mather for benin, west Africa, in 1970-2015 period

2021 ◽  
Vol 29 ◽  
pp. 291-302
Author(s):  
Vidéhouénou Ariane Lucrèce Todote ◽  
Gustavo Bastos Lyra ◽  
Marcel Carvalho Abreu
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Growth And Yield ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Climate Classification ◽  
The North ◽  
Rainfed Farming ◽  
Water Surplus

The climate is described by the predominant atmospheric conditions in a particular region and influences several human activities. In agriculture, water availability defines the growth and yield of crops and can be obtained by the water balance. The climate classification also aids to identify suitable areas for agricultural crops. Thus, the aim of this work was to elaborate the water balance and perform the climate classification through the method of Thornthwaite and Mather (1955) for six weather stations (Bohicon, Cotonou-Airport, Kandi-Airport, Natitingou, Parakou-Airport and Savè) located in Benin, Western Africa. For the execution of this work, monthly series of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration from 1970 to 2015 were used. Once the monthly water balance of the six seasons was elaborated, it was observed that the rainy (dry) period decreases (increases) from the coast (Cotonou-Airport) to the north of Benin (Kandi-Airport) and, coincides with Boreal summer and part of autumn (Boreal winter and part of spring). Regarding the climate classification, the Cotonou-Airport station was characterized as Subhumid Megathermal climate with moderate winter deficit (C2wA’a’); the stations of Bohicon and Savè presented similar climate classification with Subhumid Dry Megathermal climate with low or without water surplus (C1dA’a’); Natitingou with Subhumid Dry climate Megathermal with large summer surplus (C1s2A’a’); Parakou-Airport with Subhumid climate Dry Megathermic with moderate summer surplus (C1sA’a’) and, Kandi-Airport presented Semi-arid Megathermal climate with moderate summer surplus (DsA’a’). In Benin, subsistence and rainfed farming showed greater risk in the north of the country due to the decrease in the rainy season and the water surplus from the coast (south) to the north of the country, with the increase in aridity.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document