scholarly journals Forecasting the nearly unforecastable: why aren’t airline bookings adhering to the prediction algorithm?

Author(s):  
Saravanan Thirumuruganathan ◽  
Soon-gyo Jung ◽  
Dianne Ramirez Robillos ◽  
Joni Salminen ◽  
Bernard J. Jansen

AbstractUsing 27 million flight bookings for 2 years from a major international airline company, we built a Next Likely Destination model to ascertain customers’ next flight booking. The resulting model achieves an 89% predictive accuracy using historical data. A unique aspect of the model is the incorporation of self-competence, where the model defers when it cannot reasonably make a recommendation. We then compare the performance of the Next Likely Destination model in a real-life consumer study with 35,000 actual airline customers. In the user study, the model obtains a 51% predictive accuracy. What happened? The Individual Behavior Framework theory provides insights into possibly explaining this inconsistency in evaluation outcomes. Research results indicate that algorithmic approaches in competitive industries must account for shifting customer preferences, changes to the travel environment, and confounding business effects rather than relying solely on historical data.

1999 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 205-218 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Magnusson

A description of two cases from my time as a school psychologist in the middle of the 1950s forms the background to the following question: Has anything important happened since then in psychological research to help us to a better understanding of how and why individuals think, feel, act, and react as they do in real life and how they develop over time? The studies serve as a background for some general propositions about the nature of the phenomena that concerns us in developmental research, for a summary description of the developments in psychological research over the last 40 years as I see them, and for some suggestions about future directions.


2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (122) ◽  
pp. 20160414 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehdi Moussaïd ◽  
Mubbasir Kapadia ◽  
Tyler Thrash ◽  
Robert W. Sumner ◽  
Markus Gross ◽  
...  

Understanding the collective dynamics of crowd movements during stressful emergency situations is central to reducing the risk of deadly crowd disasters. Yet, their systematic experimental study remains a challenging open problem due to ethical and methodological constraints. In this paper, we demonstrate the viability of shared three-dimensional virtual environments as an experimental platform for conducting crowd experiments with real people. In particular, we show that crowds of real human subjects moving and interacting in an immersive three-dimensional virtual environment exhibit typical patterns of real crowds as observed in real-life crowded situations. These include the manifestation of social conventions and the emergence of self-organized patterns during egress scenarios. High-stress evacuation experiments conducted in this virtual environment reveal movements characterized by mass herding and dangerous overcrowding as they occur in crowd disasters. We describe the behavioural mechanisms at play under such extreme conditions and identify critical zones where overcrowding may occur. Furthermore, we show that herding spontaneously emerges from a density effect without the need to assume an increase of the individual tendency to imitate peers. Our experiments reveal the promise of immersive virtual environments as an ethical, cost-efficient, yet accurate platform for exploring crowd behaviour in high-risk situations with real human subjects.


2008 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 191 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhannad Quwaider ◽  
Subir Biswas

This paper presents the architecture of a wearable sensor network and a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) processingframework for stochastic identification of body postures andphysical contexts. The key idea is to collect multi-modal sensor data from strategically placed wireless sensors over a human subject’s body segments, and to process that using HMM in order to identify the subject’s instantaneous physical context. The key contribution of the proposed multi-modal approach is a significant extension of traditional uni-modal accelerometry in which only the individual body segment movements, without their relative proximities and orientation modalities, is used for physical context identification. Through real-life experiments with body mounted sensors it is demonstrated that while the unimodal accelerometry can be used for differentiating activityintensive postures such as walking and running, they are not effective for identification and differentiation between lowactivity postures such as sitting, standing, lying down, etc. In the proposed system, three sensor modalities namely acceleration, relative proximity and orientation are used for context identification through Hidden Markov Model (HMM) based stochastic processing. Controlled experiments using human subjects are carried out for evaluating the accuracy of the HMMidentified postures compared to a naïve threshold based mechanism over different human subjects.


2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (6) ◽  
pp. 1737-1741
Author(s):  
Rita Loloçi ◽  
Orneda Gega Hoxha

In this study, we will try to explain the correlation that exists between social ethics and personal ethics. Today’s challenges of human society in the field of ethics, morality and consciousness are not the same in different eras and in nations or groups of states. All three of these domains move more slowly than other processes, but are indispensable in everyday life. State authority in constantly way strive to create legal rules, but their non-compliance with ethic, principles of morality and conscience create major problems in contemporary development. Rapid contemporary developments, especially those in the field of technology and science have brought other concepts to social and personal ethics, but the necessity of their presence always adapting to other conditions has been felt. Today’s man seeks to understand it more in the form of ethics and social education. For example: nudity, morality principles to this phenomenon have changed from generation to generation, once considered shame and today as something private. The reality of the moral and conceptual problems that human and society have had over law, the rights and ethics have changed, concepts have been overthrown, and the way how people have been judged for different situations has evolved. Individual’s education in the traditional societies have been very important issue in his/ her life. That was a lifelong learning process instead. Education’s main purpose was to help the individual during his/her life so that he/she was not only responsible and aware of the environment, but to prepare the individual to fit into real life. In the actual society there are different points of views as far as the moral and civilizing education bonds are concerned. A mutual environment asks for mutual values, but on the other hand it is assumed the need to understand, accept and support even the values which may be different from the individual ones. In other words, the civil education has to treat moral as a separate issue, even though there are different opinions like: moral is a personal choice, moral is given by God, moral is a social agreement, etc. What we should emphasize is the fact that dealing with similar points of view is as important as debating against the opposite ones. It would be very positive if this could be achieved for a common understanding. But does everyone understand what moral, social and personal ethic is? Another question adds to this one: How is the problem of moral going to be treated? And is it necessary to set tasks or duties on moral as well? What features must moral education have in a view of the evolution of society as whole in terms of a new worldview? Today humanity is on the rise and is heading towards great organisation, but one must keep in mind that within this uniformity there is also diversity to be respected. The new worldview must be open to new progress and thinking not only from the content but also from the form.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Freitas ◽  
Mónica Alves

AbstractBackgroundGuidelines for venous blood sampling procedure (phlebotomy) discourage tourniquet use whenever possible. Here, we aimed to assess the Biomedical Scientists capability of not using the tourniquet in phlebotomy, which we hypothesized to be equal to 50% of the patients attended, and identifying the most frequent venipuncture site.Materials and MethodsWe selected and assigned two (BMS) with the same age (41 years) and experience (20 years) to record ten phlebotomy days, the first with prioritized and the latter with non-prioritized patients. In a simple record form, each acquired daily data for the number of attended patients, age and gender, the frequency of non-tourniquet usage and the punctured vein. To test our work hypothesis we used the two-tailed single sample t-test (p < 0.05). Differences between age-group means and non-tourniquet use means by each BMS were tested by two-tailed t-test for independent means (p < 0.05).ResultsIn 10 phlebotomy days 683 patients were attended, with males representing 43,2% of the population. We found no statistically difference between age-group means. The combined capability of non-tourniquet use was 50,5%, which did not differ from our null hypothesis, but the individual group-means were statistically different, being 33% and 66.9% in the prioritized vs non-prioritized group. The medial cubital vein was the most prone to be punctured (77,7%).ConclusionsWe have shown that performing phlebotomies without tourniquet use is possible and desirable in at least half of the attended patients, though being more limited in specific group populations. Our results provide room for quality improvement in the laboratory pre-analytical phase.Key points summaryWe assessed the capability of Biomedical Scientists not using the tourniquet in real life blood sampling procedures for diagnostic purposes.Blood was collected from at least half of the attended patients without tourniquet use.Biomedical Scientists were able to prioritize the antecubital veins without tourniquet application (medial cubital vein the most prone to be punctured - 78% of attempts).


2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 174-190
Author(s):  
Mojca Ilc Klun

Slovenian emigration is often presented with a general overview in which general data and statistical facts prevail, while the individual experiences and memories of Slovenian emigrants are omitted from these descriptions. In the study, which was conducted using a biographical-narrative methodological approach among members of the Slovenian diaspora from the United States of America, Canada and Australia, we were interested in the personal experiences and memories of those who emigrated from Slovenia themselves, or whose ancestors did. Through those life stories and memories, we can illustrate Slovenian emigration processes in such a way that people would better understand global migration processes. In the article we present three real life stories of members of the Slovenian diaspora, their individual memories and perceptions of their place of origin, homeland, the memories of emigration and immigration processes and memories of integration to the new social environments.


Author(s):  
Bernardo Lopes ◽  
Allan Luz ◽  
Bruno Fontes ◽  
Isaac C Ramos ◽  
Fernando Correia ◽  
...  

ABSTRACT Purpose To compare and assess the ability of pressure-derived parameters and corneal deformation waveform signal-derived parameters of the ocular response analyzer (ORA) measurement to distinguish between keratoconus and normal eyes, and to develop a combined parameter to optimize the diagnosis of keratoconus. Materials and methods One hundred and seventy-seven eyes (177 patients) with keratoconus (group KC) and 205 normal eyes (205 patients; group N) were included. One eye from each subject was randomly selected for analysis. Patients underwent a complete clinical eye examination, corneal topography (Humphrey ATLAS), tomography (Pentacam Oculus) and biomechanical evaluations (ORA Reichert). Differences in the distributions between the groups were assessed using the Mann- Whitney test. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to identify cutoff points that maximized sensitivity and specificity in discriminating keratoconus from normal corneas. Logistic regression was used to identify a combined linear model (Fisher 1.0). Results Significant differences in all studied parameters were detected (p < 0.05), except for W2. For the corneal resistance factor (CRF): Area under the ROC curve (AUROC) 89.1%, sensitivity 81.36%, specificity 84.88%. For the p1area: AUROC 91.5%, sensitivity 87.1%, specificity 81.95%. Of the individual parameters, the highest predictive accuracy was for the Fisher 1.0, which represents the combination of all parameters (AUROC 95.5%, sensitivity 88.14%, specificity 93.17%). Conclusion Waveform-derived ORA parameters displayed greater accuracy than pressure-derived parameters for identifying keratoconus. Corneal hysteresis (CH) and CRF, a diagnostic linear model that combines different parameters, provided the greatest accuracy for differentiating keratoconus from normal corneas. How to cite this article Luz A, Fontes B, Ramos IC, Lopes B, Correia F, Schor P, Ambrósio R. Evaluation of Ocular Biomechanical Indices to Distinguish Normal from Keratoconus Eyes. Int J Kerat Ect Cor Dis 2012;1(3):145-150.


2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-41
Author(s):  
Muhammad Nazmul Hoque ◽  
Md. Faruk Abdullah

Al-Qarawiyyin University's independence in terms of finances had been a significant and influential factor in making it possible for the university to maintain its high quality. Therefore, this paper aims to examine and analyse the financial sources for the development and operation of this university. It reviews and analyses historical data through relevant literature and documents. Waqf played a significant role in providing financial assistance to the university's communities and in strengthening its academic quality. There were four significant types of waqf sources which were the individual fund, the collective waqf fund, the Sultan fund and the alumni fund along with different other types of charities, i.e. sadaqah. This article adds new knowledge by examining the financing experiences of the world's oldest university. It is expected that the instance of Al-Qarawiyyin University may contribute to finding out a solution for the funding crises in contemporary institutions. This review is hoped to constitute a significant contribution to scholarship in general and act as a suggestion for solving the contemporary funding crisis of higher educational institutions.   Keywords: Al-Qarawiyyin University, financing higher education, Morocco, Waqf.   Cite as: Hoque, M. N., & Abdullah, M. F. (2021). The world's oldest university and its financing experience: A study on Al-Qarawiyyin University (859-990).  Journal of Nusantara Studies, 6(1), 24-41. http://dx.doi.org/10.24200/jonus.vol6iss1pp24-41


Author(s):  
Teresa Yanitska-Panek

Literary education is very important in the process of forming the personality of the individual. It is necessary to implement a number of conditions in order to student’s contact with literature was a great experience. Reading can be seen as a way of man’s existence in the world of symbols and information. Reading can also be a medium through which cultural content reaches to the recipient and enrich and improve his language and engage him emotionally. Reading is an act of great importance, austerity and effort, and at the same time it is an act of preparing the reader and the recipient to the reflection.Many authors emphasize the value of reading, inspired many motives. The authors draw attention to the different attitudes towards reading of the text which have been described by Lech Witkowski, philosopher and pedagogue in 2007. Eight status of the text in the course of reading are specific hints for teachers and non-pedagogical readers how to treat the text. The philosopher’s look on the function of reading puts this ability in a variety of contexts and makes that people interested in reading can become seekers and creative.The reading is determined the following learning outcomes: student reads fluently, correctly, fluently and expressively aloud texts consisting of words discussed during classes. These texts relate to real-life experiences of children and cognitive expectations. A student also understands short texts read silently; student correctly reads aloud texts written own in a notebook and texts stored on a PC. The student working with text by searching for the most beautiful piece. He is also able to distinguish in literary texts the forms such as narrative, description and dialogue.


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