How climate change might affect tree regeneration following fire at northern latitudes: a review

Abstract Climate change is projected to increase fire severity and frequency in the boreal forest, but it could also directly affect post-fire recruitment processes by impacting seed production, germination, and seedling growth and survival. We reviewed current knowledge regarding the effects of high temperatures and water deficits on post-fire recruitment processes of four major tree species (Picea mariana, Pinus banksiana, Populus tremuloides and Betula papyrifera) in order to anticipate the effects of climate change on forest recovery following fire in the boreal biome. We also produced maps of future vulnerability of post-fire recruitment by combining tree distributions in Canada with projections of temperature, moisture index and fire regime for the 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 periods. Although our review reveals that information is lacking for some regeneration stages, it highlights the response variability to climate conditions between species. The recruitment process of black spruce is likely to be the most affected by rising temperatures and water deficits, but more tolerant species are also at risk of being impacted by projected climate conditions. Our maps suggest that in eastern Canada, tree species will be vulnerable mainly to projected increases in temperature, while forests will be affected mostly by droughts in western Canada. Conifer-dominated forests are at risk of becoming less productive than they currently are, and eventually, timber supplies from deciduous species-dominated forests could also decrease. Our vulnerability maps are useful for prioritizing areas where regeneration monitoring efforts and adaptive measures could be developed.

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Fire regime impacts on post-fire diurnal land surface temperature change over North American boreal forest

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10702 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Jie Zhao ◽

Chao Yue ◽

Philippe Ciais ◽

Xin Hou ◽

Qi Tian

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Regression Analysis ◽

Land Surface ◽

Fire Regime ◽

Fire Severity ◽

Linear Regression Analysis ◽

Fire Regimes ◽

Fire Intensity ◽

Surface Temperature Change ◽

One Year

Wildfire is the most prevalent natural disturbance in the North American boreal (BNA) forest and can cause post-fire land surface temperature change (&#916;LSTfire) through biophysical processes. Fire regimes, such as fire severity, fire intensity and percentage of burned area (PBA), might affect &#916;LSTfire through their impacts on post-fire vegetation damage. However, the difference of the influence of different fire regimes on the &#916;LSTfire has not been quantified in previous studies, despite ongoing and projected changes in fire regimes in BNA in association with climate change. Here we employed satellite observations and a space-and-time approach to investigate diurnal &#916;LSTfire one year after fire across BNA. We further examined potential impacts of three fire regimes (i.e., fire intensity, fire severity and PBA) and latitude on &#916;LSTfire by simple linear regression analysis and multiple linear regression analysis in a stepwise manner. Our results demonstrated pronounced asymmetry in diurnal &#916;LSTfire, characterized by daytime warming in contrast to nighttime cooling over most BNA. Such diurnal &#916;LSTfire also exhibits a clear latitudinal pattern, with stronger daytime warming and nighttime cooling one year after fire in lower latitudes, whereas in high latitudes fire effects are almost neutral. Among the fire regimes, fire severity accounted for the most (43.65%) of the variation of daytime &#916;LSTfire, followed by PBA (11.6%) and fire intensity (8.5%). The latitude is an important factor affecting the influence of fire regimes on daytime &#916;LSTfire. The sensitivity of fire intensity and PBA impact on daytime &#916;LSTfire decreases with latitude. But only fire severity had a significant effect on nighttime &#916;LSTfire among three fire regimes. Our results highlight important fire regime impacts on daytime &#916;LSTfire, which might play a critical role in catalyzing future boreal climate change through positive feedbacks between fire regime and post-fire surface warming.

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Trading space for time: Assessment of tree habitat shifts under climate change using bioclimatic envelopes

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2135 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Katharina Enigl ◽

Matthias Schlögl ◽

Christoph Matulla

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Tree Species ◽

Ips Typographus ◽

Future Climate ◽

Forest Damage ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

North East ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

The Future ◽

Forest District

Climate change constitutes a main driver of altering population dynamics of spruce bark beetles (Ips typographus) all over Europe. Their swarming activity as well as development rate are strongly dependent on temperature and the availability of brood trees. Especially over the last years, the latter has substantially increased due to major drought events which led to a widespread weakening of spruce stands. Since both higher temperatures and longer drought periods are to be expected in Central Europe in the decades ahead, foresters face the challenges of maintaining sustainable forest management and safeguarding future yields. One approach used to foster decision support in silviculture relies on the identification of possible alternative tree species suitable for adapting to expected future climate conditions in threatened regions.&#160;In this study, we focus on the forest district of Horn, a region in Austria&#8216;s north east that is beneficially influenced by the mesoclimate of the Pannonian basin. This fertile yet dry area has been severely affected by mass propagations of Ips typographus due to extensive droughts since 2017, and consequently has suffered from substantial forest damage in recent years. The urgent need for action was realized and has expedited the search for more robust alternative species to ensure sustainable silviculture in the area.The determination of suitable tree species is based on the identification of regions whose climatic conditions in the recent past are similar to those that are to be expected in the forest district of Horn in the future. To characterize these conditions, we consider 19 bioclimatic variables that are derived from monthly temperature and rainfall values. Using downscaled CMIP6 projections with a spatial resolution of 2.5 minutes, we determine future conditions in Horn throughout the 21st century. By employing 20-year periods from 2021 to 2100 for the scenarios SSP1-26, SSP2-45, SSP3-70 and SSP5-85,&#160; and comparing them to worldwide past climate conditions, we obtain corresponding bioclimatic regions for four future time slices until the end of the century. The Euclidian distance is applied as measure of similarity, effectively yielding similarity maps on a continuous scale. In order to account for the spatial variability within the forest district, this procedure is performed for the colder northwest and the warmer southeast of the area, individually seeking similar bioclimatic regions for each of these two subregions. Results point to Eastern Europe as well as the Po Valley in northern Italy as areas exhibiting the highest similarity to the future climate in this North-Eastern part of Austria.

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Maxent Modelling Predicts a Shift in Suitable Habitats of a Subtropical Evergreen Tree (Cyclobalanopsis glauca (Thunberg) Oersted) under Climate Change Scenarios in China

Forests ◽

10.3390/f13010126 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 13 (1) ◽

pp. 126

Author(s):

Lijuan Zhang ◽

Lianqi Zhu ◽

Yanhong Li ◽

Wenbo Zhu ◽

Yingyong Chen

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Tree Species ◽

Critical Factor ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Maxent Modelling ◽

The Future ◽

Suitable Habitats ◽

Increasing Precipitation ◽

Cyclobalanopsis Glauca

Climate change has caused substantial shifts in the geographical distribution of many species. There is growing evidence that many species are migrating in response to climate change. Changes in the distribution of dominant tree species induced by climate change can have an impact not only on organisms such as epiphytes and understory vegetation, but also on the whole ecosystem. Cyclobalanopsis glauca is a dominant tree species in the mingled evergreen and deciduous broadleaf forests of China. Understanding their adaptive strategies against climate change is important for understanding the future community structure. We employed the Maxent framework to model current suitable habitats of C. glauca under current climate conditions and predicted it onto the climate scenarios for 2041–2060 and 2081–2100 using 315 occurrence data. Our results showed that annual precipitation was the most critical factor for the distribution of C. glauca. In the future, increasing precipitation would reduce the limitation of water on habitats, leading to an expansion of the distribution to a higher latitude and higher altitude. At the same time, there were habitat contractions at the junction of the Jiangxi and Fujian Provinces. This study can provide vital information for the management of C. glauca, and serve as a reminder for managers to protect C. glauca in the range contraction areas.

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One-third of global food production at risk for unprecedented climate conditions due to climate change

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11923 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Matti Kummu ◽

Matias Heino ◽

Maija Taka ◽

Olli Varis ◽

Daniel Viviroli

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

At Risk ◽

Food Production ◽

Crop Production ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Livestock Production ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Planetary Boundaries ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Global Food

The majority of food production is based on agricultural practices developed for the stable Holocene climatic conditions, which now are under risk for rapid change due to climate change. Although various studies have assessed the potential changes in climatic conditions and their projected impacts on yields globally, there is no clear understanding on the climatic niche of the current food production. Nor, which areas are under risk of falling outside this niche.In this study we aim first at defining the novel concept Safe Climatic Space (SCS) by using a combination of three key climatic parameters. SCS is defined here as the climate conditions to which current food production systems (here crop production and livestock production separately) are accustomed to, an analogue to Safe Operating Space (SOS) concepts such as Planetary Boundaries and human climate niche. We use a combination of selected key climatic factors to define the SCS through the Holdridge Life Zone (HLZ) concept. It allows us to first define the SCS based on three climatic factors (annual precipitation, biotemperature and aridity) and to identify which food production areas would stay within it under changed future climate conditions.&#160;We show that a rapid and unhalted growth of GHG emissions (SSP5-8.5) could force 31% (25-37% with 5th-95th percentile confidence interval) of global food crop production and 34% (26-43%) of livestock production beyond the SCS by 2081-2100. Our results underpin the importance of committing to a low emission scenario (SSP1-2.6), whereupon the extent of food production facing unprecedented conditions would be a fraction: 8% (4-10%) for crop production and 4% (2-8%) for livestock production. The most vulnerable areas are the ones at risk of leaving SCS with low resilience to cope with the change, particularly South and Southeast Asia and Africa&#8217;s Sudano-Sahelian Zone.&#160;Our findings reinforce the existing research in suggesting that climate change forces humanity into a new era of reduced validity of past experiences and dramatically increased uncertainties. Future solutions should be concentrated on actions that would both mitigate climate change as well as increase resilience in food systems and societies, increase the food production sustainability that respects key planetary boundaries, adapt to climate change by, for example, crop migration and foster local livelihoods especially in the most critical areas.

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Dominant tree species are at risk from exaggerated drought under climate change

Global Change Biology ◽

10.1111/gcb.12981 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 21 (10) ◽

pp. 3777-3785 ◽

Cited By ~ 29

Author(s):

Roderick J. Fensham ◽

Josie Fraser ◽

Harry J. MacDermott ◽

Jenifer Firn

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

At Risk ◽

Tree Species

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Climate change within Serbian forests: Current state and future perspectives

Topola ◽

10.5937/topola2108039s ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 39-56

Author(s):

Dejan Stojanović ◽

Saša Orlović ◽

Milica Zlatković ◽

Saša Kostić ◽

Verica Vasić ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Tree Species ◽

Forest Ecosystems ◽

Insect Pests ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Ground Vegetation ◽

Human Society ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Pests And Diseases ◽

Precipitation Decrease

Extreme weather conditions, namely droughts, heat waves, heavy rains, floods, and landslides are becoming more frequent globally and in Serbia as a result of climate change. Generally, various parts of human society are affected by changing climate conditions. Forest ecosystems are one of the most sensitive systems to weather and climate. In that sense, small changes may lead to large disturbances including forest decline, outbreaks of insect pests and diseases and eventually mortality. In Serbia, the average temperature in forest ecosystems of the most important and abundant forest tree species has risen for more than 1°C in the last thirty years (1990-2019) in comparison to the previous period (1961-1990). During the last thirty years, the northern and western parts of Serbia experienced an increase in precipitation as opposed to the southern and eastern parts of the country. If one takes a closer look at the climate within a particular forest stands, it would seem that the effect of precipitation decrease is stronger in less humid parts of a tree species range. In this paper, we discuss various aspects of climate change impacts on forests and forestry, including forest ecology, genetics, physiology, pests and diseases, ground vegetation, monitoring, reporting and verification system, climate change litigation and perspectives of forests in the 21st century in Serbia.

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Wildfires and climate change push low-elevation forests across a critical climate threshold for tree regeneration

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ◽

10.1073/pnas.1815107116 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 116 (13) ◽

pp. 6193-6198 ◽

Cited By ~ 77

Author(s):

Kimberley T. Davis ◽

Solomon Z. Dobrowski ◽

Philip E. Higuera ◽

Zachary A. Holden ◽

Thomas T. Veblen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

United States ◽

Ponderosa Pine ◽

Douglas Fir ◽

Tree Regeneration ◽

Western United States ◽

Study Region ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Postfire Regeneration ◽

Adult Trees

Climate change is increasing fire activity in the western United States, which has the potential to accelerate climate-induced shifts in vegetation communities. Wildfire can catalyze vegetation change by killing adult trees that could otherwise persist in climate conditions no longer suitable for seedling establishment and survival. Recently documented declines in postfire conifer recruitment in the western United States may be an example of this phenomenon. However, the role of annual climate variation and its interaction with long-term climate trends in driving these changes is poorly resolved. Here we examine the relationship between annual climate and postfire tree regeneration of two dominant, low-elevation conifers (ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir) using annually resolved establishment dates from 2,935 destructively sampled trees from 33 wildfires across four regions in the western United States. We show that regeneration had a nonlinear response to annual climate conditions, with distinct thresholds for recruitment based on vapor pressure deficit, soil moisture, and maximum surface temperature. At dry sites across our study region, seasonal to annual climate conditions over the past 20 years have crossed these thresholds, such that conditions have become increasingly unsuitable for regeneration. High fire severity and low seed availability further reduced the probability of postfire regeneration. Together, our results demonstrate that climate change combined with high severity fire is leading to increasingly fewer opportunities for seedlings to establish after wildfires and may lead to ecosystem transitions in low-elevation ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir forests across the western United States.

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Common garden comparisons confirm inherited differences in sensitivity to climate change between forest tree species

PeerJ ◽

10.7717/peerj.6213 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 7 ◽

pp. e6213 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Cuauhtémoc Sáenz-Romero ◽

Antoine Kremer ◽

László Nagy ◽

Éva Újvári-Jármay ◽

Alexis Ducousso ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Tree Species ◽

Mixed Model ◽

Tree Height ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Published Data ◽

Response Curves ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Mixed Model Approach ◽

Provenance Test

The natural distribution, habitat, growth and evolutionary history of tree species are strongly dependent on ecological and genetic processes in ecosystems subject to fluctuating climatic conditions, but there have been few experimental comparisons of sensitivity between species. We compared the responses of two broadleaved tree species (Fagus sylvatica and Quercus petraea) and two conifer tree species (Pinus sylvestris and Picea abies) to climatic transfers by fitting models containing the same climatic variables. We used published data from European provenance test networks to model the responses of individual populations nested within species. A mixed model approach was applied to develop a response function for tree height over climatic transfer distance, taking into account the climatic conditions at both the seed source and the test location. The two broadleaved species had flat climatic response curves, indicating high levels of plasticity in populations, facilitating adaptation to a broader range of environments, and conferring a high potential for resilience in the face of climatic change. By contrast, the two conifer species had response curves with more pronounced slopes, indicating a lower resilience to climate change. This finding may reflect stronger genetic clines in P. sylvestris and P. abies, which constrain their climate responses to narrower climatic ranges. The response functions had maxima that deviated from the expected maximum productivity in the climate of provenance towards cooler/moister climate conditions, which we interpreted as an adaptation lag. Unilateral, linear regression analyses following transfer to warmer and drier sites confirmed a decline in productivity, predictive of the likely impact of ongoing climate change on forest populations. The responses to mimicked climate change evaluated here are of considerable interest for forestry and ecology, supporting projections of expected performance based on “real-time” field data.

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A Roadmap for the Restoration of Mediterranean Macroalgal Forests

Frontiers in Marine Science ◽

10.3389/fmars.2021.709219 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 8 ◽

Author(s):

Emma Cebrian ◽

Laura Tamburello ◽

Jana Verdura ◽

Giuseppe Guarnieri ◽

Alba Medrano ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Decision Making ◽

Cost Effectiveness ◽

Human Impacts ◽

Forest Recovery ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Invertebrate Species ◽

Promising Strategy ◽

Eu Project ◽

Mesophotic Reef

Canopy-forming macroalgae play a crucial role in coastal primary production and nutrient cycling, providing food, shelter, nurseries, and habitat for many vertebrate and invertebrate species. However, macroalgal forests are in decline in various places and natural recovery is almost impossible when populations become locally extinct. Hence, active restoration emerges as the most promising strategy to rebuild disappeared forests. In this regard, significant efforts have been made by several EU institutions to research new restoration tools for shallow and mesophotic reef habitats (e.g., MERCES EU project, AFRIMED, and ROCPOP-life) and effective techniques have subsequently been proposed to promote self-sustaining populations. Recent research indicates that macroalgal forest recovery requires a broad spectrum of measures, ranging from mitigating human impacts to restoring the most degraded populations and habitats, and that the viability of large restoration actions is compromised by ongoing human pressures (e.g., pollution, overgrazing, and climate change). We propose a roadmap for Mediterranean macroalgal restoration to assist researchers and stakeholders in decision-making, considering the most effective methods in terms of cost and cost-effectiveness, and taking background environmental conditions and potential threats into account. Last, the challenges currently faced by the restoration of rocky coastal ecosystems under changing climate conditions are also discussed.

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Above-ground net primary productivity in young stands of beech and spruce

Forestry Journal ◽

10.2478/v10114-011-0022-y ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 59 (3) ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Jozef Pajtík ◽

Bohdan Konôpka ◽

Róbert Marušák

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Primary Productivity ◽

Tree Species ◽

Net Primary Productivity ◽

Standing Stock ◽

European Beech ◽

Forest Tree ◽

Tree Species Composition ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Resistant Species

AbstractOne of the expected consequences of climate change and its inherent phenomena to forest ecosystems is the gradual modification of their tree species composition (i.e. expansion of resistant species instead of less resistant ones). Climate change accompanied with increasing temperatures and a lack of precipitations may present a threat especially to spruce stands in the European part of the temperate zone. European beech is one of the possible forest tree species which might replace the potentially endangered spruce. In this paper, we observed, by using a combination of continual measurements and destructive whole-tree sampling, standing stocks of above-ground biomass (i.e. stem, branches, and foliage) and its annual net primary productivity (NPP) in naturally regenerated young stands of beech and spruce. We intentionally selected a site where the changing climate conditions are better suited to the ecological demands of beech rather than spruce (the species is dominant in the observed area). We recorded only small differences in the standing stock of stems of the beech, if based on tons per ha. However, this is in favor of spruce if based on cubic meters per ha. The largest difference between the species was found for the standing stock of foliage, spruce retained three times the biomass of beech. Also, beech allocated more carbohydrates to stem than spruce. On the other hand, we estimated nearly the same production of foliages and branches in both stands.

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