scholarly journals Fire mitigates bark beetle outbreaks in serotinous forests

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter C. Jentsch ◽  
Chris T. Bauch ◽  
Madhur Anand
Keyword(s):  
Bark Beetle ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Fire Dynamics ◽  
Tree Population ◽  
Dynamical Regimes ◽  
Stand Thinning ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
The Impact

AbstractBark beetle outbreaks and forest fires have imposed severe ecological damage and caused billions of dollars in lost resources in recent decades. The impact of such combined disturbances is projected to become more severe, especially as climate change takes its toll on forest ecosystems in the coming years. Here, we investigate the impact of multiple disturbances in a demographically heterogeneous tree population, using an age-structured difference equation model of bark beetle outbreaks and forest fires. We identify two dynamical regimes for beetle and fire dynamics. The model predicts that fire helps dampen beetle outbreaks not only by removing host trees but also by altering the demographic structure of forest stands. We show that a stand thinning protocol, which reduces the population size of the largest few juvenile classes by a small percentage, is able to significantly reduce beetle-induced tree mortality. Our research demonstrates one approach to capturing compound disturbances in a mathematical model.

scholarly journals The impact of bark beetle infestations on monoterpene emissions and secondary organic aerosol formation in western North America

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 3149-3161 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. R. Berg ◽  
C. L. Heald ◽  
K. E. Huff Hartz ◽  
A. G. Hallar ◽  
A. J. H. Meddens ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
British Columbia ◽  
North America ◽  
Bark Beetle ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Secondary Organic Aerosol ◽  
Organic Aerosol ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Western North America ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Over the last decade, extensive beetle outbreaks in western North America have destroyed over 100 000 km2 of forest throughout British Columbia and the western United States. Beetle infestations impact monoterpene emissions through both decreased emissions as trees are killed (mortality effect) and increased emissions in trees under attack (attack effect). We use 14 yr of beetle-induced tree mortality data together with beetle-induced monoterpene emission data in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model (CESM) to investigate the impact of beetle-induced tree mortality and attack on monoterpene emissions and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation in western North America. Regionally, beetle infestations may have a significant impact on monoterpene emissions and SOA concentrations, with up to a 4-fold increase in monoterpene emissions and up to a 40% increase in SOA concentrations in some years (in a scenario where the attack effect is based on observed lodgepole pine response). Responses to beetle attack depend on the extent of previous mortality and the number of trees under attack in a given year, which can vary greatly over space and time. Simulated enhancements peak in 2004 (British Columbia) and 2008 (US). Responses to beetle attack are shown to be substantially larger (up to a 3-fold localized increase in summertime SOA concentrations) in a scenario based on bark-beetle attack in spruce trees. Placed in the context of observations from the IMPROVE network, the changes in SOA concentrations due to beetle attack are in most cases small compared to the large annual and interannual variability in total organic aerosol which is driven by wildfire activity in western North America. This indicates that most beetle-induced SOA changes are not likely detectable in current observation networks; however, these changes may impede efforts to achieve natural visibility conditions in the national parks and wilderness areas of the western United States.

#INCLUSION – THE IMPACT OF SOCIAL MEDIA COMMUNICATION ON THE LEGITIMACY OF ARMED FORCES

2019 ◽  
pp. 43-60
Author(s):  
EVA MOEHLECKE DE BASEGGIO ◽  
OLIVIA SCHNEIDER ◽  
TIBOR SZVIRCSEV TRESCH
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Political Communication ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Media Communication ◽  
The Public ◽  
Political Legitimation ◽  
Social Media Communication ◽  
The Impact

The Swiss Armed Forces (SAF), as part of a democratic system, depends on legitimacy. Democracy, legitimacy and the public are closely connected. In the public sphere the SAF need to be visible; it is where they are controlled and legitimated by the citizens, as part of a deliberative discussion in which political decisions are communicatively negotiated. Considering this, the meaning of political communication, including the SAF’s communication, becomes obvious as it forms the most important basis for political legitimation processes. Social media provide a new way for the SAF to communicate and interact directly with the population. The SAF’s social media communication potentially brings it closer to the people and engages them in a dialogue. The SAF can become more transparent and social media communication may increase its reputation and legitimacy. To measure the effects of social media communication, a survey of the Swiss internet population was conducted. Based on this data, a structural equation model was defined, the effects of which substantiate the assumption that the SAF benefits from being on social media in terms of broadening its reach and increasing legitimacy values.

Remittances, Economic Growth and Poverty: A Case of African OIC Member Countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 121-143
Author(s):  
Nasim Shah Shirazi ◽  
Sajid Amin Javed ◽  
Dawood Ashraf
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Simultaneous Equation ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Simultaneous Equation Model ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Alternative Source ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the impact of remittance inflows on economic growth and poverty reduction for seven African countries using annual data from 1992-2010. By using the depth of hunger as a proxy for poverty in a Simultaneous Equation Model (SEM), we find that remittances have statistically significant growth enhancing and poverty reducing impact. Drawing on our estimates, we conclude that financial development level significantly increases the remittances inflows and strengthens poverty alleviating impact of remittances. Results of our study further show a signficant interactive imapct of remittances and finacial develpment on economic growth, suggesting the substitutability between remittance inflows and financial development. We further find that 3 percentage point increase in credit provision to the private sector (financial development) can help eliminate the severe depth of hunger in the region. Remittances, serving an alternative source of private credit, can be effective in this regard. Keywords: Remittance Inflow, Poverty Alleviation, Financial Development, Simultaneous Equation Model

scholarly journals Model-based evaluation of school- and non-school-related measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ganna Rozhnova ◽  
Christiaan H. van Dorp ◽  
Patricia Bruijning-Verhagen ◽  
Martin C. J. Bootsma ◽  
Janneke H. H. M. van de Wijgert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Additional Benefit ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Time Points ◽  
School Based ◽  
Admission Data ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pandemic Wave

AbstractThe role of school-based contacts in the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 is incompletely understood. We use an age-structured transmission model fitted to age-specific seroprevalence and hospital admission data to assess the effects of school-based measures at different time points during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Netherlands. Our analyses suggest that the impact of measures reducing school-based contacts depends on the remaining opportunities to reduce non-school-based contacts. If opportunities to reduce the effective reproduction number (Re) with non-school-based measures are exhausted or undesired and Re is still close to 1, the additional benefit of school-based measures may be considerable, particularly among older school children. As two examples, we demonstrate that keeping schools closed after the summer holidays in 2020, in the absence of other measures, would not have prevented the second pandemic wave in autumn 2020 but closing schools in November 2020 could have reduced Re below 1, with unchanged non-school-based contacts.

scholarly journals Cross-scale interaction of host tree size and climatic water deficit governs bark beetle-induced tree mortality

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. Koontz ◽  
Andrew M. Latimer ◽  
Leif A. Mortenson ◽  
Christopher J. Fettig ◽  
Malcolm P. North
Keyword(s):  
Water Deficit ◽  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Bark Beetle ◽  
Ponderosa Pine ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Dendroctonus Brevicomis ◽  
Scale Interactions ◽  
Climatic Water Deficit ◽  
Host Mortality

AbstractThe recent Californian hot drought (2012–2016) precipitated unprecedented ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) mortality, largely attributable to the western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis; WPB). Broad-scale climate conditions can directly shape tree mortality patterns, but mortality rates respond non-linearly to climate when local-scale forest characteristics influence the behavior of tree-killing bark beetles (e.g., WPB). To test for these cross-scale interactions, we conduct aerial drone surveys at 32 sites along a gradient of climatic water deficit (CWD) spanning 350 km of latitude and 1000 m of elevation in WPB-impacted Sierra Nevada forests. We map, measure, and classify over 450,000 trees within 9 km2, validating measurements with coincident field plots. We find greater size, proportion, and density of ponderosa pine (the WPB host) increase host mortality rates, as does greater CWD. Critically, we find a CWD/host size interaction such that larger trees amplify host mortality rates in hot/dry sites. Management strategies for climate change adaptation should consider how bark beetle disturbances can depend on cross-scale interactions, which challenge our ability to predict and understand patterns of tree mortality.

scholarly journals Integrated IEW-TOPSIS and Fire Dynamics Simulation for Agent-Based Evacuation Modeling in Industrial Safety

Safety ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 47
Author(s):  
Wattana Chanthakhot ◽  
Kasin Ransikarbum
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Evacuation ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Industrial Safety ◽  
Dynamics Simulation ◽  
Entropy Weight ◽  
Fire Dynamics ◽  
Evacuation Simulation ◽  
Evacuation Modeling ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The Impact

Emergency events in the industrial sector have been increasingly reported during the past decade. However, studies that focus on emergency evacuation to improve industrial safety are still scarce. Existing evacuation-related studies also lack a perspective of fire assembly point’s analysis. In this research, location of assembly points is analyzed using the multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) technique based on the integrated information entropy weight (IEW) and techniques for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) to support the fire evacuation plan. Next, we propose a novel simulation model that integrates fire dynamics simulation coupled with agent-based evacuation simulation to evaluate the impact of smoke and visibility from fire on evacuee behavior. Factors related to agent and building characteristics are examined for fire perception of evacuees, evacuees with physical disabilities, escape door width, fire location, and occupancy density. Then, the proposed model is applied to a case study of a home appliance factory in Chachoengsao, Thailand. Finally, results for the total evacuation time and the number of remaining occupants are statistically examined to suggest proper evacuation planning.

scholarly journals Understanding drivers of wild oyster population persistence

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mickael Teixeira Alves ◽  
Nick G. H. Taylor ◽  
Hannah J. Tidbury
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Pacific Oyster ◽  
Wild Population ◽  
Population Persistence ◽  
Oyster Reefs ◽  
Oyster Population ◽  
Northern European ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
The Impact

AbstractPersistence of wild Pacific oyster, Magallana gigas, also known as Crassostrea gigas, has been increasingly reported across Northern European waters in recent years. While reproduction is inhibited by cold waters, recent warm summer temperature has increased the frequency of spawning events. Although correlation between the increasing abundance of Pacific oyster reefs in Northern European waters and climate change is documented, persistence of wild populations may also be influenced by external recruitment from farmed populations and other wild oyster populations, as well as on competition for resources with aquaculture sites. Our understanding of the combined impact of the spawning frequency, external recruitment, and competition on wild population persistence is limited. This study applied an age-structured model, based on ordinary differential equations, to describe an oyster population under discrete temperature-related dynamics. The impact of more frequent spawning events, external recruitment, and changes in carrying capacity on Pacific oyster density were simulated and compared under theoretical scenarios and two case studies in Southern England. Results indicate that long term persistence of wild oyster populations towards carrying capacity requires a high frequency of spawning events but that in the absence of spawning, external recruitment from farmed populations and other wild oyster populations may act to prevent extinction and increase population density. However, external recruitment sources may be in competition with the wild population so that external recruitment is associated with a reduction in wild population density. The implications of model results are discussed in the context of wild oyster population management.

scholarly journals Laurel Wilt: Current and Potential Impacts and Possibilities for Prevention and Management

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 181
Author(s):  
Rabiu O. Olatinwo ◽  
Stephen W. Fraedrich ◽  
Albert E. Mayfield
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
The United States ◽  
Persea Americana ◽  
Laurel Wilt ◽  
Important Species ◽  
Invasive Insects ◽  
Raffaelea Lauricola ◽  
Redbay Ambrosia Beetle ◽  
The Impact

In recent years, outbreaks of nonnative invasive insects and pathogens have caused significant levels of tree mortality and disturbance in various forest ecosystems throughout the United States. Laurel wilt, caused by the pathogen Raffaelea lauricola (T.C. Harr., Fraedrich and Aghayeva) and the primary vector, the redbay ambrosia beetle (Xyleborus glabratus Eichhoff), is a nonnative pest-disease complex first reported in the southeastern United States in 2002. Since then, it has spread across eleven southeastern states to date, killing hundreds of millions of trees in the plant family Lauraceae. Here, we examine the impacts of laurel wilt on selected vulnerable Lauraceae in the United States and discuss management methods for limiting geographic expansion and reducing impact. Although about 13 species belonging to the Lauraceae are indigenous to the United States, the highly susceptible members of the family to laurel wilt are the large tree species including redbay (Persea borbonia (L.) Spreng) and sassafras (Sassafras albidum (Nutt.) Nees), with a significant economic impact on the commercial production of avocado (Persea americana Mill.), an important species native to Central America grown in the United States. Preventing new introductions and mitigating the impact of previously introduced nonnative species are critically important to decelerate losses of forest habitat, genetic diversity, and overall ecosystem value.

TWOFOLD IMPACT OF DELAYED FEEDBACK ON COUPLED OSCILLATORS

2007 ◽  
Vol 17 (07) ◽  
pp. 2517-2530 ◽  
Author(s):  
OLEKSANDR V. POPOVYCH ◽  
VALERII KRACHKOVSKYI ◽  
PETER A. TASS
Keyword(s):  
Time Delay ◽  
Coupling Strength ◽  
Coupled Oscillators ◽  
Phase Synchronization ◽  
Threshold Value ◽  
Phase Oscillators ◽  
Intermediate Coupling ◽  
Rich Variety ◽  
Dynamical Regimes ◽  
The Impact

We present a detailed bifurcation analysis of desynchronization transitions in a system of two coupled phase oscillators with delay. The coupling between the oscillators combines a delayed self-feedback of each oscillator with an instantaneous mutual interaction. The delayed self-feedback leads to a rich variety of dynamical regimes, ranging from phase-locked and periodically modulated synchronized states to chaotic phase synchronization and desynchronization. We show that an increase of the coupling strength between oscillators may lead to a loss of synchronization. Intriguingly, the delay has a twofold influence on the oscillations: synchronizing for small and intermediate coupling strength and desynchronizing if the coupling strength exceeds a certain threshold value. We show that the desynchronization transition has the form of a crisis bifurcation of a chaotic attractor of chaotic phase synchronization. This study contributes to a better understanding of the impact of time delay on interacting oscillators.

Warming increased bark beetle‐induced tree mortality by 30% during an extreme drought in California

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zachary J. Robbins ◽  
Chonggang Xu ◽  
Brian H. Aukema ◽  
Polly C. Buotte ◽  
Rutuja Chitra‐Tarak ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bark Beetle ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Extreme Drought
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