scholarly journals Time series of diabetes attributable mortality from 2008 to 2017

Author(s):  
U. Fedeli ◽  
E. Schievano ◽  
S. Masotto ◽  
E. Bonora ◽  
G. Zoppini

Abstract Purpose Diabetes is a growing health problem. The aim of this study was to capture time trends in mortality associated with diabetes. Methods The mortality database of the Veneto region (Italy) includes both the underlying causes of death, and all the diseases mentioned in the death certificate. The annual percent change (APC) in age-standardized rates from 2008 to 2017 was computed by the Joinpoint Regression Program. Results Overall 453,972 deaths (56,074 with mention of diabetes) were observed among subjects aged ≥ 40 years. Mortality rates declined for diabetes as the underlying cause of death and from diabetes-related circulatory diseases. The latter declined especially in females − 4.4 (CI 95% − 5.3/− 3.4), while in males the APC was − 2.8 (CI 95% − 4.0/− 1.6). Conclusion We observed a significant reduction in mortality during the period 2008–2017 in diabetes either as underlying cause of death or when all mentions of diabetes in the death certificate were considered.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Hu ◽  
Yong Lin ◽  
Lanjing Zhang

AbstractOverall mortality among U.S. adults was stable in the past years, while racial disparity was found in 10 leading causes of death or age-specific mortality in U.S. Blacks or African Americans. However, the trends in sex- and race-adjusted age-standardized cause-specific mortality are poorly understood. This study was aimed at identifying the UCD with sex- and race-adjusted, age-standardized mortality that was changing in recent years. We extracted the data of underlying causes of death (UCD) from the Multiple Cause of Death database of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Multivariable log-linear regression models were used to estimate trends in sex- and race-adjusted, age-standardized mortality during 2013-2017. A total of 31,029,133 deaths were identified. Among the list of 113 UCD compiled by the CDC, there were 29 UCD with upward trend, 33 UCD with downward trend and 56 UCD with no significant trend. The 2 UCD with largest annual percent change were both nutrition related (annual percent change= 17.73, 95% CI [15.13-20.33] for malnutrition and annual percent change= 17.49, 95% CI [14.94-20.04] for Nutritional deficiencies), followed by Accidental poisoning and exposure to noxious substances. This study thus reported the UCD with changing mortality in recent years, which was sex- and race-adjusted and age-standardized. More efforts and resources should be focused on understanding, prevention and control of the mortality linked to these UCD. Continuous monitoring of mortality trends is recommended.


2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 1117
Author(s):  
Alberto Fernández-García ◽  
Mónica Pérez-Ríos ◽  
Alberto Fernández-Villar ◽  
Gael Naveira ◽  
Cristina Candal-Pedreira ◽  
...  

There is little information on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortality trends, age of death, or male:female ratio. This study therefore sought to analyze time trends in mortality with COPD recorded as the underlying cause of death from 1980 through 2017, and with COPD recorded other than as the underlying cause of death. We conducted an analysis of COPD deaths in Galicia (Spain) from 1980 through 2017, including those in which COPD was recorded other than as the underlying cause of death from 2015 through 2017. We calculated the crude and standardized rates, and analyzed mortality trends using joinpoint regression models. There were 43,234 COPD deaths, with a male:female ratio of 2.4. Median age of death was 82 years. A change point in the mortality trend was detected in 1996 with a significant decrease across the sexes, reflected by an annual percentage change of −3.8%. Taking deaths into account in which COPD participated or contributed without being the underlying cause led to an overall 42% increase in the mortality burden. The most frequent causes of death when COPD was not considered to be the underlying cause were bronchopulmonary neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. COPD mortality has decreased steadily across the sexes in Galicia since 1996, and age of death has also gradually increased. Multiple-cause death analysis may help prevent the underestimation of COPD mortality.


10.2196/17125 ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. e17125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louis Falissard ◽  
Claire Morgand ◽  
Sylvie Roussel ◽  
Claire Imbaud ◽  
Walid Ghosn ◽  
...  

Background Coding of underlying causes of death from death certificates is a process that is nowadays undertaken mostly by humans with potential assistance from expert systems, such as the Iris software. It is, consequently, an expensive process that can, in addition, suffer from geospatial discrepancies, thus severely impairing the comparability of death statistics at the international level. The recent advances in artificial intelligence, specifically the rise of deep learning methods, has enabled computers to make efficient decisions on a number of complex problems that were typically considered out of reach without human assistance; they require a considerable amount of data to learn from, which is typically their main limiting factor. However, the CépiDc (Centre d’épidémiologie sur les causes médicales de Décès) stores an exhaustive database of death certificates at the French national scale, amounting to several millions of training examples available for the machine learning practitioner. Objective This article investigates the application of deep neural network methods to coding underlying causes of death. Methods The investigated dataset was based on data contained from every French death certificate from 2000 to 2015, containing information such as the subject’s age and gender, as well as the chain of events leading to his or her death, for a total of around 8 million observations. The task of automatically coding the subject’s underlying cause of death was then formulated as a predictive modelling problem. A deep neural network−based model was then designed and fit to the dataset. Its error rate was then assessed on an exterior test dataset and compared to the current state-of-the-art (ie, the Iris software). Statistical significance of the proposed approach’s superiority was assessed via bootstrap. Results The proposed approach resulted in a test accuracy of 97.8% (95% CI 97.7-97.9), which constitutes a significant improvement over the current state-of-the-art and its accuracy of 74.5% (95% CI 74.0-75.0) assessed on the same test example. Such an improvement opens up a whole field of new applications, from nosologist-level batch-automated coding to international and temporal harmonization of cause of death statistics. A typical example of such an application is demonstrated by recoding French overdose-related deaths from 2000 to 2010. Conclusions This article shows that deep artificial neural networks are perfectly suited to the analysis of electronic health records and can learn a complex set of medical rules directly from voluminous datasets, without any explicit prior knowledge. Although not entirely free from mistakes, the derived algorithm constitutes a powerful decision-making tool that is able to handle structured medical data with an unprecedented performance. We strongly believe that the methods developed in this article are highly reusable in a variety of settings related to epidemiology, biostatistics, and the medical sciences in general.


Circulation ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 133 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincent L. Mendy ◽  
Rodolfo Vargas ◽  
Lamees El-sadek ◽  
Abigail Gamble

Background: Heart disease (HD) mortality has declined in Mississippi over recent decades however it remains as the leading cause of death among Mississippians. Trends in Mississippi HD mortality have not been thoroughly explored. This study examined trends in HD mortality from 1980 through 2013 among Mississippi adults (≥ 25 years) and further assessed trends by race and sex. Methods and Results: Data from Mississippi Vital Statistics (1980 through 2013) were used to calculate age-specific HD mortality rates for Mississippi adults. Cases were identified using underlying cause of death codes from the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10), including I00-I09, I11, I13, and I20-I51. Joinpoint software was used to calculate the average annual percent change in HD mortality rates for the overall population and by race, sex, and race and sex. Overall, the age-adjusted HD mortality rates among Mississippi adults decreased by 36.5% between 1980 and 2013 with an average annual percent change of -1.60% (95% CI -2.0 to -1.3). During this period, HD mortality rates decreased annually on average by -1.30% (95% CI -1.98 to -0.69) for black adults; by -1.60% (95% CI -1.74 to -1.46) for white adults; by -1.30% (95% CI -1.5 to -1.1) for all females, and by -1.90% (95% -2.2 to -1.5) for all males. Conclusions: Between 1980 and 2013 a continual decrease in HD mortality among Mississippi adults was observed. Disparities in the magnitude of the decrease in HD mortality existed by race and sex.


2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S926-S926
Author(s):  
Habibatou Diallo ◽  
Joanne Murabito ◽  
Anne B Newman ◽  
Thomas T Perls ◽  
Diane Ives ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Death certificate inaccuracy increases at older ages. The Long Life Family Study (LLFS) utilizes a physician adjudication committee to review the death certificate, medical records and a family narrative about cause of death. We report here the adjudication process and the prevalent underlying causes of death for a subsample of those who have died so far. Methods: We first describe the adjudication process. There were ~1,250 deaths in LLFS. We report underlying causes of death for a subset of proband generation subjects enrolled and evaluated by two LLFS study centers. Results: As of May 2019, we have adjudicated 190 deaths (98 male, 92 female) . Mean age 95 years (range 81-105 years). Top 5 causes of death for men: cancer (13%), coronary heart disease (CHD, 13%), dementia (13%), "other" (11%) and "unknown" (9%) and for women: dementia (21%), valvular heart disease (14%), coronary heart disease (12%), unknown (12%) and other (9%). Rate of death due to dementia was greater in women compared to men (CHI2 =7.33, p=0.006). Conclusions: In this pilot study, a significantly greater proportion of women died due to dementia compared to men. At least some portion of this difference may be due to the observation that women are known to survive chronic aging-related diseases more than men and thus have a greater opportunity to die from dementia at advanced ages. An additional cause to consider includes clinicians’ gender bias in ascribing diagnoses in the medical records that were relied upon as part of the adjudication process.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Lærke Taudorf ◽  
Ane Nørgaard ◽  
Sabrina Islamoska ◽  
Thomas Munk Laursen ◽  
Gunhild Waldemar

Background: Dementia is associated with increased mortality. However, it is not clear whether causes of death in people with dementia have changed over time. Objective: To investigate if causes of death changed over time in people with dementia compared to the general elderly population. Methods: We included longitudinal data from nationwide registries on all Danish residents aged≥65 years to 110 years who died between 2002 to 2015. We assessed the annual frequency of dementia-related deaths (defined as a dementia diagnosis registered as a cause of death) and of underlying causes of death in people registered with dementia compared to the general elderly population. Results: From 2002 to 2015, 621,826 people died, of whom 103,785 were diagnosed with dementia. During this period, the percentage of dementia-related deaths increased from 10.1%to 15.2%in women, and from 6.3%to 9.5%in men in the general elderly population. From 2002 to 2015, dementia became the leading, registered underlying cause of death in people with diagnosed dementia. Simultaneously, a marked decline in cardiovascular and cerebrovascular deaths was observed in people with and without dementia. Conclusion: This is the first study to investigate if the causes of death change over time in people with diagnosed dementia compared with the general elderly population. The increase in the registration of dementia as an underlying cause of death could reflect increasing awareness of dementia as a fatal condition.


Author(s):  
Hui Ge ◽  
Keyan Gao ◽  
Shaoqiong Li ◽  
Wei Wang ◽  
Qiang Chen ◽  
...  

It is very important to have a comprehensive understanding of the health status of a country’s population, which helps to develop corresponding public health policies. Correct inference of the underlying cause-of-death for citizens is essential to achieve a comprehensive understanding of the health status of a country’s population. Traditionally, this relies mainly on manual methods based on medical staff’s experiences, which require a lot of resources and is not very efficient. In this work, we present our efforts to construct an automatic method to perform inferences of the underlying causes-of-death for citizens. A sink algorithm is introduced, which could perform automatic inference of the underlying cause-of-death for citizens. The results show that our sink algorithm could generate a reasonable output and outperforms other stat-of-the-art algorithms. We believe it would be very useful to greatly enhance the efficiency of correct inferences of the underlying causes-of-death for citizens.


2013 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 157-167
Author(s):  
Michalina Krzyżak ◽  
Dominik Maślach ◽  
Martyna Skrodzka ◽  
Katarzyna Florczyk ◽  
Anna Szpak ◽  
...  

Abstract The purpose of the study was to analyse the level and the trends of Potential Years of Life Lost due to the main causes of death in Poland in the years 2002-2011. The material for the study was the information from the Central Statistical Office on the number of deaths due to the main causes of death in Poland in the years 2002-2011. The premature mortality analysis was conducted with the use of the PYLL (Potential Years of Life Lost) indicator. PYLL rate was calculated following the method proposed by J. Romeder, according to which premature mortality was defined as death before the age of 70. Time trends of PYLL rate and the average annual percent change (APC - Annual Percent Change) were assessed using jointpoint models and the Joinpoint Regression Program. In the years 2002-2011, PYLL rate for all-cause deaths decreased by 7.0% among men and 8.1% among women. In 2011, the main reasons for PYLL among men were: external causes (27.6%), cardiovascular diseases (24.2%) and cancers (20.3%). Among women the leading causes were: cancers (41.1%), cardiovascular diseases (19.7%) and external causes (12.5%). PYLL rate increased among men for colorectal cancer, and among women for colorectal and lung cancer. The presented epidemiological situation for premature mortality in Poland shows that in the majority of cases it is caused by preventable deaths, which highlights a need to intensify measures in primary and secondary prevention.


Blood ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 124 (21) ◽  
pp. 439-439
Author(s):  
Susan Paulukonis ◽  
Todd Griffin ◽  
Mei Zhou ◽  
James R. Eckman ◽  
Robert Hagar ◽  
...  

Abstract On-going public health surveillance efforts in sickle cell disease (SCD) are critical for understanding the course and outcomes of this disease over time. Once nearly universally fatal by adolescence, many patients are living well into adulthood and sometimes into retirement years. Previous SCD mortality estimates have relied on data from death certificates alone or from deaths of patients receiving care in high volume hematology clinics, resulting in gaps in reporting and potentially biased conclusions. The Registry and Surveillance System for Hemoglobinopathies (RuSH) project collected and linked population-based surveillance data on SCD in California and Georgia from a variety of sources for years 2004-2008. These data sources included administrative records, newborn screening reports and health insurance claims as well as case reports of adult and pediatric patients receiving care in the following large specialty treatment centers: Georgia Comprehensive Sickle Cell Center, Georgia Regents University, Georgia Comprehensive Sickle Cell Center at Grady Health Systems and Children's Healthcare of Atlanta in Georgia, and Children's Hospital Los Angeles and UCSF Benioff Children's Hospital Oakland in California. Cases identified from these combined data sources were linked to death certificates in CA and GA for the same years. Among 12,143 identified SCD cases, 640 were linked to death certificates. Combined SCD mortality rates by age group at time of death are compared to combined mortality rates for all African Americans living in CA and GA. (Figure 1). SCD death rates among children up to age 14 and among adults 65 and older were very similar to those of the overall African American population. In contrast, death rates from young adulthood to midlife were substantially higher in the SCD population. Overall, only 55% of death certificates linked to the SCD cases had SCD listed in any of the cause of death fields. Thirty-four percent (CA) and 37% (GA) had SCD as the underlying cause of death. An additional 22% and 20% (CA and GA, respectively) had underlying causes of death that were not unexpected for SCD patients, including related infections such as septicemia, pulmonary/cardiac causes of death, renal failure and stroke. The remaining 44% (CA) and 43% (GA) had underlying causes of death that were either not related to SCD (e.g., malignancies, trauma) or too vague to be associated with SCD (e.g., generalized pulmonary or cardiac causes of death. Figure 2 shows the number of deaths by state, age group at death and whether the underlying cause of death was SCD specific, potentially related to SCD or not clearly related to SCD. While the number of deaths was too small to use for life expectancy calculations, there were more deaths over age 40 than under age 40 during this five year period. This effort represents a novel, population-based approach to examine mortality in SCD patients. These data suggest that the use of death certificates alone to identify deceased cases may not capture all-cause mortality among all SCD patients. Additional years of surveillance are needed to provide better estimates of current life expectancy and the ability to track and monitor changes in mortality over time. On-going surveillance of the SCD population is required to monitor changes in mortality and other outcomes in response to changes in treatments, standards of care and healthcare policy and inform advocacy efforts. This work was supported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute, cooperative agreement numbers U50DD000568 and U50DD001008. Figure 1: SCD-Specific & Overall African American Mortality Rates in CA and GA, 2004 – 2008. Figure 1:. SCD-Specific & Overall African American Mortality Rates in CA and GA, 2004 – 2008. Figure 2: Deaths (Count) Among Individuals with SCD in CA and GA, by Age Group and Underlying Cause of Death, 2004-2008 (N=615) Figure 2:. Deaths (Count) Among Individuals with SCD in CA and GA, by Age Group and Underlying Cause of Death, 2004-2008 (N=615) Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.


1998 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Augusto H. Santo ◽  
Celso E. Pinheiro ◽  
Eliana M. Rodrigues

INTRODUCTION: The correct identification of the underlying cause of death and its precise assignment to a code from the International Classification of Diseases are important issues to achieve accurate and universally comparable mortality statistics These factors, among other ones, led to the development of computer software programs in order to automatically identify the underlying cause of death. OBJECTIVE: This work was conceived to compare the underlying causes of death processed respectively by the Automated Classification of Medical Entities (ACME) and the "Sistema de Seleção de Causa Básica de Morte" (SCB) programs. MATERIAL AND METHOD: The comparative evaluation of the underlying causes of death processed respectively by ACME and SCB systems was performed using the input data file for the ACME system that included deaths which occurred in the State of S. Paulo from June to December 1993, totalling 129,104 records of the corresponding death certificates. The differences between underlying causes selected by ACME and SCB systems verified in the month of June, when considered as SCB errors, were used to correct and improve SCB processing logic and its decision tables. RESULTS: The processing of the underlying causes of death by the ACME and SCB systems resulted in 3,278 differences, that were analysed and ascribed to lack of answer to dialogue boxes during processing, to deaths due to human immunodeficiency virus [HIV] disease for which there was no specific provision in any of the systems, to coding and/or keying errors and to actual problems. The detailed analysis of these latter disclosed that the majority of the underlying causes of death processed by the SCB system were correct and that different interpretations were given to the mortality coding rules by each system, that some particular problems could not be explained with the available documentation and that a smaller proportion of problems were identified as SCB errors. CONCLUSION: These results, disclosing a very low and insignificant number of actual problems, guarantees the use of the version of the SCB system for the Ninth Revision of the International Classification of Diseases and assures the continuity of the work which is being undertaken for the Tenth Revision version.


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