Quantitative evaluation of glacier change and its response to climate change in the Chinese Tien Shan

The impact of regional climate change on the runoff and the regime of glacier- and snow-fed rivers in the transboundary river Shu basin between Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan is investigated. This study covered three of the most representative rivers of the Shu basin. It was based on the weather and gauging stations’ observation data in the river Shu basin — the northern Tien Shan. Based on the trend analysis, an increase in the average annual temperature and river discharge was identified within the observation period as a whole, and for the separate compared periods. Furthermore, the mean annual flow projections were made based on the methodology of the retrospective analysis of runoff and the rate of river flow increase for the observation period, and further extrapolation of data for the forecast period. According to the analysis, the mean annual flow for the considered rivers will be decreased by 25 to 30% on average by 2050. These findings are necessary for elaborating adaptation measures in water allocation for freshwater supply, irrigation and hydropower within this transboundary river.

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Reconstruction of the Historical (1750–2020) Mass Balance of Bordu, Kara-Batkak and Sary-Tor Glaciers in the Inner Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan

Frontiers in Earth Science ◽

10.3389/feart.2021.734802 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 ◽

Author(s):

Lander Van Tricht ◽

Chloë Marie Paice ◽

Oleg Rybak ◽

Rysbek Satylkanov ◽

Victor Popovnin ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Mass Balance ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Tien Shan ◽

Ice Age ◽

Balance Model ◽

Mass Balances ◽

Specific Mass ◽

The Future ◽

The Mean

The mean specific mass balance of a glacier represents the direct link between a glacier and the local climate. Hence, it is intensively monitored throughout the world. In the Kyrgyz Tien Shan, glaciers are of crucial importance with regard to water supply for the surrounding areas. It is therefore essential to know how these glaciers behave due to climate change and how they will evolve in the future. In the Soviet era, multiple glaciological monitoring programs were initiated but these were abandoned in the nineties. Recently, they have been re-established on several glaciers. In this study, a reconstruction of the mean specific mass balance of Bordu, Kara-Batkak and Sary-Tor glaciers is obtained using a surface energy mass balance model. The model is driven by temperature and precipitation data acquired by combining multiple datasets from meteorological stations in the vicinity of the glaciers and tree rings in the Kyrgyz Tien Shan between 1750 and 2020. Multi-annual mass balance measurements integrated over elevation bands of 100 m between 2013 and 2020 are used for calibration. A comparison with WGMS data for the second half of the 20th century is performed for Kara-Batkak glacier. The cumulative mass balances are also compared with geodetic mass balances reconstructed for different time periods. Generally, we find a close agreement, indicating a high confidence in the created mass balance series. The last 20 years show a negative mean specific mass balance except for 2008–2009 when a slightly positive mass balance was found. This indicates that the glaciers are currently in imbalance with the present climatic conditions in the area. For the reconstruction back to 1750, this study specifically highlights that it is essential to adapt the glacier geometry since the end of the Little Ice Age in order to not over- or underestimate the mean specific mass balance. The datasets created can be used to get a better insight into how climate change affects glaciers in the Inner Tien Shan and to model the future evolution of these glaciers as well as other glaciers in the region.

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‘We will change’

Science Fiction Film and Television ◽

10.3828/sfftv.2021.27 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 14 (3) ◽

pp. 395-412

Author(s):

Christy Tidwell

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Natural World ◽

First Century ◽

Environmental Concerns ◽

Glacier Change ◽

New Combinations ◽

The Past ◽

The Future ◽

Western Values ◽

The Many

One of the many threats accompanying climate change is that of deadly viruses being revived or uncovered when the permafrost melts, as in the 2016 uncovering of anthrax in Siberia. Blood Glacier (Kren Austria 2013, originally Blutgletscher) addresses this in creature feature form, telling the story of something nasty emerging from the natural world (in this case, microorganisms emerging from a melting glacier) to threaten humans and human superiority. Blood Glacier reflects a larger twenty-first-century creature-feature trope of prehistoric creatures emerging from thawing ice as well as an expansion of ecohorror beyond familiar nature-strikes-back anxieties or fears of humans becoming food for animals. Instead, the microorganisms discovered within the glacier change people (and other animals), causing mutations and leading to the creation of new combinations of species. The film juxtaposes these environmental concerns with one character’s past abortion, which comes to represent another, more personal, challenge to Western values. As a result, the film asks questions not addressed by other similar creature features: Which life has value? What does the future look like, and who decides that? The film therefore addresses the ethics of bringing life into being, gesturing toward the responsibilities inherent both in bearing children and in choosing not to bear children. These questions are addressed in the end of the film, with the birth and then adoption of a mutant baby. By bringing these issues of reproduction and environmental futures together, the film asks us to consider how our past and current choices help shape the future - both personal and planetary. The conclusion of the film serves in part to reinforce heteronormativity and reproductive futurism, both of which stake the future on the replication of the past through traditional relationships and by reproducing ourselves and our values through our children. Simultaneously, however, it gestures toward new possibilities for queer, nonhuman, mutant kinship and care.

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Withdrawn: Topographic influence on glacier change in the Gangotri glacier basin, Garhwal Himalaya, India

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2018.119 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Sarfaraz Ahmad ◽

Khatib Khan

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Garhwal Himalaya ◽

Glacier Change ◽

Gangotri Glacier ◽

Topographic Influence

Abstract Journal of Water and Climate Change issues a formal withdrawal in relation to the above article by Sarfaraz Ahmad and Khatib Khan. This decision has been taken as the authors failed to complete the necessary corrections to their paper, and production could not be completed. As a result of this the paper has been withdrawn.

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Modelling glacier change in the Everest region, Nepal Himalaya

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-9-1105-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 9 (3) ◽

pp. 1105-1128 ◽

Cited By ~ 89

Author(s):

J. M. Shea ◽

W. W. Immerzeel ◽

P. Wagnon ◽

C. Vincent ◽

S. Bajracharya

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Mass Balance ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Glacier Mass Balance ◽

Glacier Change ◽

Nepal Himalaya ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Precipitation Anomalies ◽

Koshi Basin ◽

End Members

Abstract. In this study, we apply a glacier mass balance and ice redistribution model to examine the sensitivity of glaciers in the Everest region of Nepal to climate change. High-resolution temperature and precipitation fields derived from gridded station data, and bias-corrected with independent station observations, are used to drive the historical model from 1961 to 2007. The model is calibrated against geodetically derived estimates of net glacier mass change from 1992 to 2008, termini position of four large glaciers at the end of the calibration period, average velocities observed on selected debris-covered glaciers, and total glacierized area. We integrate field-based observations of glacier mass balance and ice thickness with remotely sensed observations of decadal glacier change to validate the model. Between 1961 and 2007, the mean modelled volume change over the Dudh Koshi basin is −6.4 ± 1.5 km3, a decrease of 15.6% from the original estimated ice volume in 1961. Modelled glacier area change between 1961 and 2007 is −101.0 ± 11.4 km2, a decrease of approximately 20% from the initial extent. The modelled glacier sensitivity to future climate change is high. Application of temperature and precipitation anomalies from warm/dry and wet/cold end-members of the CMIP5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 ensemble results in sustained mass loss from glaciers in the Everest region through the 21st century.

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A doubling of glacier mass loss in the Karlik Range, easternmost Tien Shan, between the periods 1972–2000 and 2000–2015

Journal of Glaciology ◽

10.1017/jog.2020.76 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 1-12

Author(s):

Zhujun Wan ◽

Yetang Wang ◽

Shugui Hou ◽

Baojuan Huai ◽

Qi Liu

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Mass Loss ◽

Radar Data ◽

Tien Shan ◽

Topographic Maps ◽

Glacier Mass Balance ◽

Regional Warming ◽

Early 21St Century ◽

Digital Elevation ◽

X Band

Abstract Despite a number of studies reporting glacier extent changes and their response to climate change over the eastern Tien Shan, glacier mass-balance changes over multiple decades are still not well reconstructed. Here, glacier mass budgets on the Karlik Range, easternmost Tien Shan during the time spans of 1972–2000 and 2000–2015 are quantified using digital elevation models reconstructed from topographic maps, SRTM X-band radar data and ASTER images. The results exhibit significant glacier mass loss in the Karlik Range for the two time spans, with a mean mass loss of −0.19 ± 0.08 m w.e. a−1 for the 1972–2000 period and −0.45 ± 0.17 m w.e. a−1 for the 2000–2015 period. The doubling of mass loss over the latter period suggests an acceleration of glacier mass loss in the early 21st century. The accelerated mass loss is associated with regional warming whereas the decline in annual precipitation is not significant.

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