The Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Regime of the Transboundary River Shu Basin (Kazakhstan–Kyrgyzstan): Forecast for 2050

The impact of regional climate change on the runoff and the regime of glacier- and snow-fed rivers in the transboundary river Shu basin between Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan is investigated. This study covered three of the most representative rivers of the Shu basin. It was based on the weather and gauging stations’ observation data in the river Shu basin — the northern Tien Shan. Based on the trend analysis, an increase in the average annual temperature and river discharge was identified within the observation period as a whole, and for the separate compared periods. Furthermore, the mean annual flow projections were made based on the methodology of the retrospective analysis of runoff and the rate of river flow increase for the observation period, and further extrapolation of data for the forecast period. According to the analysis, the mean annual flow for the considered rivers will be decreased by 25 to 30% on average by 2050. These findings are necessary for elaborating adaptation measures in water allocation for freshwater supply, irrigation and hydropower within this transboundary river.

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Climatic impacts on water resources in a tropical catchment in Uganda and adaptation measures proposed by resident stakeholders

Climatic Change ◽

10.1007/s10584-021-02958-9 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 164 (1-2) ◽

Author(s):

Bano Mehdi ◽

Julie Dekens ◽

Mathew Herrnegger

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Mean Annual Precipitation ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

The Mean ◽

The Impact ◽

Far Future

AbstractThe Ruhezamyenda catchment in Uganda includes a unique lake, Lake Bunyonyi, and is threatened by increasing social and environmental pressures. The COSERO hydrological model was used to assess the impact of climate change on future surface runoff and evapotranspiration in the Lake Bunyonyi catchment (381 km2). The model was forced with an ensemble of CMIP5 global climate model (GCM) simulations for the mid-term future (2041–2070) and for the far future (2071–2100), each with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In the Ruhezamyenda catchment, compared to 1971–2000, the median of all GCMs (for both RCPs) showed the mean monthly air temperature to increase by approximately 1.5 to 3.0 °C in the mid-term future and by roughly 2.0 to 4.5 °C in the far future. The mean annual precipitation is generally projected to increase, with future changes between − 25 and + 75% (RCP8.5). AET in the Lake Bunyonyi catchment was simulated to increase for the future by approximately + 8 mm/month in the median of all GCMs for RCP8.5 for the far future. The runoff for future periods showed much uncertainty, but with an overall increasing trend. A combination of no-regrets adaptation options in the five categories of: governance; communication and capacity development; water, soil, land management and livelihoods improvement; data management; and research, was identified and validated with stakeholders, who also identified additional adaptation actions based on the model results. This study contributes to improving scientific knowledge on the impacts of climate change on water resources in Uganda with the purpose to support adaptation.

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HOW CLIMATE CHANGE CAN INFLUENCE THE AGRICULTURE IN UKRAINE: A REVIEW

Technical and technological aspects of development and testing of new machinery and technologies for agriculture of Ukraine ◽

10.31473/2305-5987-2020-2-27(41)-15 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

N. Maidanovych ◽

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Crop Yields ◽

Soil Surface ◽

Winter Period ◽

Negative Consequences ◽

Resource Saving ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Positive Effects ◽

Average Annual Temperature ◽

The Impact

The purpose of this work is to review and analyze the main results of modern research on the impact of climate change on the agro-sphere of Ukraine. Results. Analysis of research has shown that the effects of climate change on the agro-sphere are already being felt today and will continue in the future. The observed climate changes in recent decades have already significantly affected the shift in the northern direction of all agro-climatic zones of Europe, including Ukraine. From the point of view of productivity of the agro-sphere of Ukraine, climate change will have both positive and negative consequences. The positives include: improving the conditions of formation and reducing the harvesting time of crop yields; the possibility of effective introduction of late varieties (hybrids), which require more thermal resources; improving the conditions for overwintering crops; increase the efficiency of fertilizer application. Model estimates of the impact of climate change on wheat yields in Ukraine mainly indicate the positive effects of global warming on yields in the medium term, but with an increase in the average annual temperature by 2 ° C above normal, grain yields are expected to decrease. The negative consequences of the impact of climate change on the agrosphere include: increased drought during the growing season; acceleration of humus decomposition in soils; deterioration of soil moisture in the southern regions; deterioration of grain quality and failure to ensure full vernalization of grain; increase in the number of pests, the spread of pathogens of plants and weeds due to favorable conditions for their overwintering; increase in wind and water erosion of the soil caused by an increase in droughts and extreme rainfall; increasing risks of freezing of winter crops due to lack of stable snow cover. Conclusions. Resource-saving agricultural technologies are of particular importance in the context of climate change. They include technologies such as no-till, strip-till, ridge-till, which make it possible to partially store and accumulate mulch on the soil surface, reduce the speed of the surface layer of air and contribute to better preservation of moisture accumulated during the autumn-winter period. And in determining the most effective ways and mechanisms to reduce weather risks for Ukrainian farmers, it is necessary to take into account the world practice of climate-smart technologies.

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Labour-use Efficiency of Assam Gramin Vikash Bank: Branch- and District-level Analysis

Studies in Microeconomics ◽

10.1177/23210222211024374 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 232102222110243

Author(s):

Mohuya Deb Purkayastha ◽

Joyeeta Deb ◽

Ram Pratap Sinha

Keyword(s):

Efficiency Score ◽

Significant Variable ◽

Data Envelopment ◽

Tobit Regression ◽

Second Stage ◽

Time Period ◽

Use Efficiency ◽

The Mean ◽

The Impact ◽

Observation Period

The present study estimated labour-use efficiency of 48 branches of Assam Gramin Vikash Bank at its branch level, covering three districts of Barak Valley, which falls under Silchar region of the bank for the time period from 2010–2011 to 2017–2018. The study applied data envelopment analysis for estimating labour-use efficiency. In the second stage, the study applied censored Tobit regression for determining the impact of several contextual variables on efficiency. The study reveals that the mean labour-use efficiency score of the selected branches is 76% when averaged for the in-sample branches over the observation period. Results of the Tobit regression identified cluster 2 and total business of the branches as the significant factors for determining efficiency and the number of employees as a significant variable influencing inefficiency. JEL Classifications: G2, G20, G21, J3

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High-Resolution Climate Change Impact Analysis on Expected Future Water Availability in the Upper Jordan Catchment and the Middle East

Journal of Hydrometeorology ◽

10.1175/jhm-d-13-0153.1 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 15 (4) ◽

pp. 1517-1531 ◽

Cited By ~ 15

Author(s):

Gerhard Smiatek ◽

Harald Kunstmann ◽

Andreas Heckl

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

High Resolution ◽

Water Availability ◽

Impact Analysis ◽

River Flow ◽

Climate Model ◽

Mesoscale Model ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Full Range ◽

The Impact

Abstract The impact of climate change on the future water availability of the upper Jordan River (UJR) and its tributaries Dan, Snir, and Hermon located in the eastern Mediterranean is evaluated by a highly resolved distributed approach with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) run at 18.6- and 6.2-km resolution offline coupled with the Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM). The MM5 was driven with NCEP reanalysis for 1971–2000 and with Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3), GCM forcings for 1971–2099. Because only one regional–global climate model combination was applied, the results may not give the full range of possible future projections. To describe the Dan spring behavior, the hydrological model was extended by a bypass approach to allow the fast discharge components of the Snir to enter the Dan catchment. Simulation results for the period 1976–2000 reveal that the coupled system was able to reproduce the observed discharge rates in the partially karstic complex terrain to a reasonable extent with the high-resolution 6.2-km meteorological input only. The performed future climate simulations show steadily rising temperatures with 2.2 K above the 1976–2000 mean for the period 2031–60 and 3.5 K for the period 2070–99. Precipitation trends are insignificant until the middle of the century, although a decrease of approximately 12% is simulated. For the end of the century, a reduction in rainfall ranging between 10% and 35% can be expected. Discharge in the UJR is simulated to decrease by 12% until 2060 and by 26% until 2099, both related to the 1976–2000 mean. The discharge decrease is associated with a lower number of high river flow years.

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Evaluation of the daily cycle in the simulation of the ClimEx large-ensemble

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12097 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Anne-Marie Begin

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Estimation Error ◽

Natural Variability ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Large Ensemble ◽

Daily Cycle ◽

Minimum Number ◽

The Mean ◽

Mean Cycle ◽

The Impact

To estimate the impact of climate change on our society we need to use climate projections based on numerical models. These models make it possible to assess the effects on climate of the increase in greenhouse gases (GHG) as well as natural variability. We know that the global average temperature will increase and that the occurrence, intensity and spatio-temporal distribution of extreme precipitations will change. These extreme weather events cause droughts, floods and other natural disasters that have significant consequences on our life and environment. Precipitation is a key variable in adapting to climate change.&#160;This study focuses on the ClimEx large ensemble, a set of 50 independent simulations created to study the effect of climate change and natural variability on the water network in Quebec. This dataset consists of simulations produced using the Canadian Regional Climate Model version 5 (CRCM5) at 12 km of resolution driven by simulations from the second generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) global model at 310 km of resolution.&#160;The aim of the project is to evaluate the performance of the ClimEx ensemble in simulating the daily cycle and representing extreme values.&#160; To get there, 30 years of hourly time series for precipitation and 3 hourly for temperature are analyzed. The simulations are compared with the values from the simulation of CRCM5 driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis, the ERA5 reanalysis and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) stations. An evaluation of the sensitivity of different statistics to the number of members is also performed.&#160;The daily cycle of precipitation from ClimEx shows mainly non-significant correlations with the other datasets and its amplitude is less than the observation datas from ECCC stations. For temperature, the correlation is strong and the amplitude of the cycle is similar to observations. ClimEx provides a fairly good representation of the 95, 97, 99th quantiles for precipitation. For temperature it represents a good distribution of quantiles but with a warm bias in southern Quebec. For precipitation hourly maximum, ClimEx shows values 10 times higher than ERA5.&#160; For temperature, minimum and maximum values may exceed the ERA5 limit by up to 20&#176;C. For precipitation, the minimum number of members for the estimation of the 95 and 99thquantiles and the mean cycle is between 15 and 50 for an estimation error of less than 5%. For the 95, 99th quantiles of temperature, the minimum number of members is between 1 and 17 and for the mean cycle 1 to 2 members are necessary to obtain an estimation error of less than 0.5&#176;C.

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Feasibility of The Olympic Marathon Under Climatic And Socioeconomic Change

10.21203/rs.3.rs-906806/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Takahiro Oyama ◽

Jun'ya Takakura ◽

Minoru Fujii ◽

Kenichi Nakajima ◽

Yasuaki Hijioka

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

21St Century ◽

Emission Scenario ◽

Olympic Games ◽

Climate Factors ◽

Socioeconomic Conditions ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

Marathon Runners ◽

Late 21St Century ◽

The Impact

Abstract There are concerns about the impact of climate change on Olympic Games, especially endurance events, such as marathons. In recent competitions, many marathon runners dropped out of their races due to extreme heat, and it is expected that more areas will be unable to host the Olympic Games due to climate change. Here, we show the feasibility of the Olympic marathon considering the variations in climate factors, socioeconomic conditions, and adaptation measures. The number of current possible host cities will decline by up to 24% worldwide by the late 21st century. Dozens of emerging cities, especially in Asia, will not be capable of hosting the marathon under the highest emission scenario. Moving the marathon from August to October and holding the games in multiple cities in the country are effective measures, and they should be considered if we are to maintain the regional diversity of the games.

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Climate change and drought effects on rural income distribution in the Mediterranean: a case study for Spain

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/nhessd-3-4353-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 3 (7) ◽

pp. 4353-4389

Author(s):

S. Quiroga ◽

C. Suárez

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Income Distribution ◽

Rural Areas ◽

Crop Production ◽

Crop Productivity ◽

Social Aspect ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

Effects Of Drought ◽

The Impact

Abstract. This paper examines the effects of climate change and drought on agricultural outputs in Spanish rural areas. By now the effects of drought as a response to climate change or policy restrictions have been analyzed through response functions considering direct effects on crop productivity and incomes. These changes also affect incomes distribution in the region and therefore modify the social structure. Here we consider this complementary indirect effect on social distribution of incomes which is essential in the long term. We estimate crop production functions for a range of Mediterranean crops in Spain and we use a decomposition of inequalities measure to estimate the impact of climate change and drought on yield disparities. This social aspect is important for climate change policies since it can be determinant for the public acceptance of certain adaptation measures in a context of drought. We provide the empirical estimations for the marginal effects of the two considered impacts: farms' income average and social income distribution. In our estimates we consider crop productivity response to both bio-physical and socio-economic aspects to analyze long term implications on both competitiveness and social disparities. We find disparities in the adaptation priorities depending on the crop and the region analyzed.

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Regional assessment of climate risks using GIS technologies (on the example of the Belgorod Region)

Proceedings of the International conference “InterCarto/InterGIS” ◽

10.35595/2414-9179-2020-1-26-271-278 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 26 (1) ◽

pp. 271-278

Author(s):

Yuri Chendev ◽

Maria Lebedeva ◽

Olga Krymskaya ◽

Maria Petina

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Quantitative Assessment ◽

Weather Conditions ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Winter Period ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

Climate Services ◽

Climate Risks ◽

Weather And Climate ◽

The Impact

The ongoing climate change requires a quantitative assessment of the impact of weather conditions on the nature and livelihoods of the population. However, to date, the concept of “climate risk” has not been finally defined, and the corresponding terminology is not universally recognized. One manifestation of climate change is an increase in climate variability and extremeness in many regions. At the same time, modern statistics indicate growing worldwide damage from dangerous weather and climate events. The most widely used in climate services is the concept of “Vulnerability index”, which reflects a combination (with or without weighing) of several indicators that indicate the potential damage that climate change can cause to a particular sector of the economy. development of adaptation measures to ensure sustainable development of territories. The main criterion for the vulnerability of the territory from the point of view of meteorological parameters is the extremeness of the basic values: daily air temperature, daily precipitation, maximum wind speed. To fully take into account the possible impacts of extreme climatic conditions on the region’s economy, it is necessary to detail the weather and climate risks taking into account the entire observation network, since significant differences in quantitative assessment are possible. The obtained average regional values of the climate vulnerability indices for the Belgorod Region of the Russian Federation provide 150 points for the winter period, 330 points for the summer season, which indicates the prevalence of extreme weather conditions in the warm season. Most of the territory has a relative influence on climatic phenomena, with the exception of the East and the Southeast Region. Moreover, the eastern part of the region is the most vulnerable in climatic terms.

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Innovative urban climate model PALM-4U as a support tool for municipal climate adaptation strategies.

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12563 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Antonina Kriuger ◽

Alexander Reinbold ◽

Martina Schubert-Frisius ◽

Jörg Cortekar

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

High Performance ◽

Climate Model ◽

Urban Climate ◽

Performance Model ◽

Practical Implementation ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

Funding Program ◽

The Impact ◽

Comfort Indices

Cities are particularly vulnerable to climate change. At the same time, cities change slowly. Accordingly, preparatory measures to adapt to climate change have to be taken urgently. High-performance urban climate models with various applications can form the basis for prospective planning decisions, however, as of today no such model exists that can be easily applied outside of the scientific community. Therefore, the funding program Urban Climate Under Change [UC]2 aims to further develop the new urban climate model PALM-4U (Parallelized Large-Eddy Simulation Model for Urban Applications) into a practice-oriented and user-friendly product that meets the needs of municipalities and other practical users in addition to scientific research.Specifically, the high-performance model PALM-4U allows simulation of entire large cities comprising the area over 1.000 km2 with a grid size of down to few meters. One of our goals within the project ProPolis is to design and test the practical implementation of PALM-4U in standard and innovative application fields which include thermal comfort (indices like PT, PET, UTCI), cold air balance (source areas, reach and others), local wind comfort (indices derived from medium winds and gusts) as well as dispersion of pollutants.In close cooperation with our practice partners, we explore the potential of PALM-4U to support the urban planning processes in each specific application setting. Additionally, with development of the fit for purpose graphic user interface, manuals and trainings we aim to enable practitioners to apply the model for their individual planning questions and adaptation measures.In our presentation, we will show an application case of PALM-4U in a major German city. We will investigate the effect of a planned development area on the local climate and the impact of different climate change adaptation measures (such as extensive vs. intensive green roofs). The comparative simulations of the current state and planning scenarios with integrated green and blue infrastructure should provide arguments for the municipal decision making in consideration of climate change aspects in a densely built-up environment, e.g. urban heat stress.

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Hydrological Alteration Index as an Indicator of the Calibration Complexity of Water Quantity and Quality Modeling in the Context of Global Change

Water ◽

10.3390/w12010115 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 115 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Roxelane Cakir ◽

Mélanie Raimonet ◽

Sabine Sauvage ◽

Javier Paredes-Arquiola ◽

Youen Grusson ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Quality ◽

Water Resources ◽

Stream Water ◽

Swat Model ◽

Water Yield ◽

Observation Data ◽

Hydrological Alteration ◽

Water Quality And Quantity ◽

The Impact

Modeling is a useful way to understand human and climate change impacts on the water resources of agricultural watersheds. Calibration and validation methodologies are crucial in forecasting assessments. This study explores the best calibration methodology depending on the level of hydrological alteration due to human-derived stressors. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used to evaluate hydrology in South-West Europe in a context of intensive agriculture and water scarcity. The Index of Hydrological Alteration (IHA) is calculated using discharge observation data. A comparison of two SWAT calibration methodologies are done; a conventional calibration (CC) based on recorded in-stream water quality and quantity and an additional calibration (AC) adding crop managements practices. Even if the water quality and quantity trends are similar between CC and AC, water balance, irrigation and crop yields are different. In the context of rainfall decrease, water yield decreases in both CC and AC, while crop productions present opposite trends (+33% in CC and −31% in AC). Hydrological performance between CC and AC is correlated to IHA: When the level of IHA is under 80%, AC methodology is necessary. The combination of both calibrations appears essential to better constrain the model and to forecast the impact of climate change or anthropogenic influences on water resources.

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