scholarly journals The Montreal Protocol or the Paris Agreement as a Model for a Plastics Treaty?

AJIL Unbound ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 114 ◽  
pp. 212-216
Author(s):  
Elizabeth A. Kirk
Keyword(s):  
Iterative Process ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Emissions Reduction ◽  
Emissions Reductions ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Common But Differentiated Responsibilities ◽  
Alternative Materials ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
Over Time

The notion that a plastics treaty is necessary is gaining traction, but there is less agreement as to its content. Some, including this author, have suggested that a plastics treaty should be modelled on treaties such as the Montreal Protocol, which sets out a broad commitment to end the use of a particular material and then introduce regulations to ban particular forms of that material over time. This approach has an immediate appeal—it sends a signal to states and to industry that they must change their behaviors and products, while giving time to adapt to the new regulation and develop alternative materials or ways of working. The potential drawback of this approach is that some states simply will not accept such rigid standards. In addition, some states may prefer a second approach that is more obviously rooted in the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, which assigns different obligations to parties according to their respective capacities. Within the climate change regime, the Paris Agreement takes both approaches, asking states to set their own nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to emissions reductions (common but differentiated responsibilities) and then to revise these NDCs over time through an iterative process to deliver progressively more ambitious targets for emissions reduction (moving toward a ban) or mitigation. In reality, neither approach is entirely suited to regulating plastics, so a new approach to treaty-making is required. This new approach should focus on the outcomes desired rather than the practices that need to be regulated.

scholarly journals The Paris Agreement: Destined to Succeed or Doomed to Fail?

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 124-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oran R. Young
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
International Environmental Agreements ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Environmental Agreements ◽  
General Account ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
Ozone Depleting Substances ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Climate Problem

Is the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change destined to succeed or doomed to fail? If all the pledges embedded in the intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) are implemented fully, temperatures at the Earth’s surface are predicted to rise by 3–4 °C, far above the agreement’s goal of limiting increases to 1.5 °C. This means that the fate of the agreement will be determined by the success of efforts to strengthen or ratchet up the commitments contained in the national pledges over time. The first substantive section of this essay provides a general account of mechanisms for ratcheting up commitments and conditions determining the use of these mechanisms in international environmental agreements. The second section applies this analysis to the specific case of the Paris Agreement. The conclusion is mixed. There are plenty of reasons to doubt whether the Paris Agreement will succeed in moving from strength to strength in a fashion resembling experience with the Montreal Protocol on ozone depleting substances. Nevertheless, there is more room for hope in this regard than those who see the climate problem as unusually malign, wicked, or even diabolical are willing to acknowledge.

scholarly journals Climate Change: Reversing the Past and Advancing the Future

AJIL Unbound ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 115 ◽  
pp. 80-85
Author(s):  
Daniel Bodansky
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Global Institutions ◽  
Change Policy ◽  
Global Action ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
Executive Action

After four years of not simply inaction but significant retrogression in U.S. climate change policy, the Biden administration has its work cut out. As a start, it needs to undo what Trump did. The Biden administration took a step in that direction on Day 1 by rejoining the Paris Agreement. But simply restoring the pre-Trump status quo ante is not enough. The United States also needs to push for more ambitious global action. In part, this will require strengthening parties’ nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement; but it will also require actions by what Sue Biniaz, the former State Department climate change lawyer, likes to call the Greater Metropolitan Paris Agreement—that is, the array of other international actors that help advance the Paris Agreement's goals, including global institutions such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the Montreal Protocol, and the World Bank, as well as regional organizations and non-state actors. Although the Biden administration can pursue some of these international initiatives directly through executive action, new regulatory initiatives will face an uncertain fate in the Supreme Court. So how much the Biden Administration is able to achieve will likely depend significantly on how much a nearly evenly-divided Congress is willing to support.

scholarly journals Fusing subnational with national climate action is central to decarbonization: the case of the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan E. Hultman ◽  
Leon Clarke ◽  
Carla Frisch ◽  
Kevin Kennedy ◽  
Haewon McJeon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Emissions Reductions ◽  
Climate Action ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Reduce Emissions

Abstract Approaches that root national climate strategies in local actions will be essential for all countries as they develop new nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement. The potential impact of climate action from non-national actors in delivering higher global ambition is significant. Sub-national action in the United States provides a test for how such actions can accelerate emissions reductions. We aggregated U.S. state, city, and business commitments within an integrated assessment model to assess how a national climate strategy can be built upon non-state actions. We find that existing commitments alone could reduce emissions 25% below 2005 levels by 2030, and that enhancing actions by these actors could reduce emissions up to 37%. We show how these actions can provide a stepped-up basis for additional federal action to reduce emissions by 49%—consistent with 1.5 °C. Our analysis demonstrates sub-national actions can lead to substantial reductions and support increased national action.

scholarly journals Institutional “Paris Agreement Compatible” Mitigation Scenarios Evaluated Against the Paris Agreement 1.5°C Goal

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Brecha ◽  
Gaurav Ganti ◽  
Robin Lamboll ◽  
Zebedee Nicholls ◽  
Willion Hare ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Emissions Reduction ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Private Companies ◽  
International Agencies ◽  
Development Plans ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
Short And Long Term

Abstract Since its adoption in 2015, governments, international agencies and private entities have increasingly recognized the implications of the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C long-term temperature goal (LTTG) for greenhouse gas emissions reduction planning in both the near- and long-term. Governments have submitted or are preparing updates of their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and are encouraged to submit long term low greenhouse gas development plans (Article 4 of the Agreement1), aimed at aligning short- and long-term strategies. The foundations on which country targets are based are guided, directly or indirectly, by a variety of sources of information judged to be authoritative, including scientific research institutes2, international agencies, or private companies. Importantly, such authoritative sources also affect planning and decision making by investors3 who aim to anticipate climate policies, and their decisions in turn can drive or hold back setting ambitious emissions-reduction targets.

‘Dynamic Differentiation’: The Principles of CBDR-RC, Progression and Highest Possible Ambition in the Paris Agreement

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 285-303 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christina Voigt ◽  
Felipe Ferreira
Keyword(s):  
Collective Learning ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Duty Of Care ◽  
Due Diligence ◽  
Common But Differentiated Responsibilities ◽  
Climate Action ◽  
History Of ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
Set Up

AbstractThe Paris Agreement has struck a careful balance between the need for ambitious and effective climate action and for fair effort sharing among parties based on differentiation. This article provides an overview of the negotiation history of differentiation and analyzes the ‘dynamic differentiation’ as built into the architecture of the Agreement. While being set against the normative background of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Paris Agreement adopts a more diversified way of differential treatment among parties, approaching it in three complementary ways: firstly, on a principled basis, reflecting common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR-RC), in the light of different national circumstances; secondly, in the content of its articles, in particular on mitigation, finance and transparency; and thirdly, on the basis of the principles of progression and highest possible ambition, which represent new and dynamic aspects of differentiation. The authors argue that ‘highest possible ambition’ is reflective of a duty of care that states now need to exercise. It implies a due diligence standard, which requires each government to act in proportion to the risk at stake and to take all appropriate and adequate climate measures according to its responsibility and its best capabilities. By expecting parties to apply this standard at each successive preparation of nationally determined contributions (NDCs), and to progress beyond previous ones, the Paris Agreement has set up reiterative processes, an ‘international normative pull’ and a collective learning environment. This, in turn, creates a reflexive approach to parties’ determination of effort, promoting the evolution of voluntary cooperative behaviour.

scholarly journals Country-based rate of emissions reductions should increase by 80% beyond nationally determined contributions to meet the 2 °C target

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peiran R. Liu ◽  
Adrian E. Raftery
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Probabilistic Framework ◽  
Emissions Reductions ◽  
Current Trends ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
Reduce Emissions ◽  
Rate Of Decline

AbstractThe 2015 Paris Agreement aims to keep global warming by 2100 to below 2 °C, with 1.5 °C as a target. To that end, countries agreed to reduce their emissions by nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Using a fully statistically based probabilistic framework, we find that the probabilities of meeting their nationally determined contributions for the largest emitters are low, e.g. 2% for the USA and 16% for China. On current trends, the probability of staying below 2 °C of warming is only 5%, but if all countries meet their nationally determined contributions and continue to reduce emissions at the same rate after 2030, it rises to 26%. If the USA alone does not meet its nationally determined contribution, it declines to 18%. To have an even chance of staying below 2 °C, the average rate of decline in emissions would need to increase from the 1% per year needed to meet the nationally determined contributions, to 1.8% per year.

scholarly journals Quantifying the regional stranded asset risks from new coal plants under 1.5°C

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Morgan Edwards ◽  
Ryna Yiyun Cui ◽  
Matilyn Bindl ◽  
Nathan Hultman ◽  
Krinjal Mathur ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
The Past ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Plant Level ◽  
Over Time

Abstract A global phaseout of unabated coal use is critical to meeting the Paris climate goals. This transition can potentially lead to large amounts of stranded assets, especially in regions with newer and growing coal fleets. Here we combine plant-level data with a global integrated assessment model to quantify changes in stranded asset risks across locations and over time. With new plant proposals, cancellations, and retirements over the past five years, global committed emissions in 2030 from existing and planned coal plants declined by 3.3 GtCO2 (25%). While these emissions are now roughly in line with near-term (2030) Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement, they remain far off track from longer-term climate goals. Building all proposed coal plants in the pipeline leads to a 24% (503 GW) increase in capacity and a 55% ($520 billion) increase in stranded assets under 1.5°C. Stranded asset risks fall disproportionately on emerging Asian economies with newer and growing coal fleets.

Australia energy policy will undermine emissions goals

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Power Plants ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Emissions Reduction ◽  
Economic Data ◽  
Emissions Reductions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Inflation Forecasts ◽  
Supply Policy ◽  
Economic Outlook

Significance Recent economic data provide mixed signals for the economy, although GDP growth and inflation forecasts remain unchanged. The most important domestic risks to the economic outlook arise in domestic housing markets and energy supply. Policy is shifting towards greater intervention in markets. Impacts Australia is unlikely to meet its 26-28% emissions reduction by 2030 pledge under the Paris Agreement. Canberra will probably opt for a light regulatory touch for utilities that fail to achieve emissions reductions. Gas-fired power plants will nevertheless remain more attractive investments for utilities than replacing aging coal plants.

scholarly journals Implikasi Hukum Paris Agreement Melalui Program REDD+ Berbasis Blue Carbon Di Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 174
Author(s):  
Elda Sofia
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Kyoto Protocol ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Emissions Reductions ◽  
Common But Differentiated Responsibilities ◽  
Legal Implications ◽  
Forestry Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
Gas Targets

To replace the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC post-2020 the Participating Countries of UNFCCC made a new commitment namely Paris Agreement to the UNFCCC. Indonesia has ratified the Paris Agreement to become its national law. In Paris Agreement to the UNFCCC, all Countries should reduce greenhouse gas/GHG emissions following the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities. GHG emissions reductions obligations are set out in a nationally determined contribution/NDC. Within the NDC, Indonesia achieves emission reduction greenhouse gas targets up to 29% on its own and up 41% with international assistance. GHG emissions reductions through the forestry sectors are key sectors in NDC Indonesia at 17.2%. Using the method of normative research through an approach to legislation. After ratified of Paris Agreement to the UNFCCC brings legal implications for Indonesia namely the establishment of the laws on REDD+ in the forestry sector. Efforts made by the government of Indonesia is the establishment of the laws on REDD+. It has found the legal problem which can be a factor inhibiting the achievement of NDC target consisting of law enforcement, legal certainty of forest area. It is suggested that the Government of Indonesia makes regulation on mangrove forest. Untuk menggantikan Kyoto Protocol pasca 2020 Negara Peserta UNFCCC membuat komitmen baru yaitu Paris Agreement to the UNFCCC. Indonesia telah meratifikasi Paris Agreement menjadi hukum nasional. Di dalam Paris Agreement to the UNFCCC, semua negara diberikan kewajiban untuk mengurangi emisi gas rumah kaca sesuai dengan prinsip common but differentiated responsibilities. Kewajiban pengurangan emisi gas rumah kaca ditetapkan dalam nationally determined contribution/NDC. Di dalam NDC, Indonesia mempunyai target untuk mengurangi emisi gas rumah kaca sebesar 29% dengan usaha sendiri dan sampai dengan 41% dengan bantuan internasional. Pengurangan emisi gas rumah kaca melalui sektor kehutanan adalah sektor utama dalam NDC Indonesia yaitu sebesar 17.2%. Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah penelitian hukum normatif yaitu melalui pendekatan perundang-undangan. Pasca diratifikasinya Paris Agreement to the UNFCCC membawa implikasi hukum bagi Indonesia yaitu dibentuknya sejumlah peraturan-peraturan terkait REDD+ di sektor kehutanan. Upaya-upaya yang dilakukan pemerintah Indonesia untuk mengimplementasikan Paris Agreement to the UNFCCC sektor kehutanan adalah membentuk sejumlah peraturan-peraturan hukum terkait REDD+. Persoalan-persoalan hukum yang ditemui menjadi faktor penghambat tercapainya target NDC Indonesia yaitu penegakan hukum, kepastian hukum kawasan hutan. Disarankan agar dibentuknya regulasi tentang perlindungan terhadap hutan mangrove.

Electric vehicles: the future we made and the problem of unmaking it

2020 ◽  
Vol 44 (4) ◽  
pp. 953-977 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jamie Morgan
Keyword(s):  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Public Transportation ◽  
Combustion Engine ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Emissions Reduction ◽  
The Public ◽  
Private Transportation ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Individual Ownership

Abstract The uptake of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), subject to bottlenecks, seems to have reached a tipping point in the UK and this mirrors a general trend globally. BEVs are being positioned as one significant strand in the web of policy intended to translate the good intentions of Article 2 of the Conference of the Parties 21 Paris Agreement into reality. Governments and municipalities are anticipating that a widespread shift to BEVs will significantly reduce transport-related carbon emissions and, therefore, augment their nationally determined contributions to emissions reduction within the Paris Agreement. However, matters are more complicated than they may appear. There is a difference between thinking we can just keep relying on human ingenuity to solve problems after they emerge and engaging in fundamental social redesign to prevent the trajectories of harm. BEVs illustrate this. The contribution to emissions reduction per vehicle unit may be less than the public initially perceive since the important issue here is the lifecycle of the BEV and this is in no sense zero-emission. Furthermore, even though one can make the case that BEVs are a superior alternative to the fossil fuel-powered internal combustion engine, the transition to BEVs may actually facilitate exceeding the carbon budget on which the Paris Agreement ultimately rests. Whether in fact it does depends on the nature of the policy that shapes the transition. If the transition is a form of substitution that conforms to rather than shifts against current global scales and trends in private transportation, then it is highly likely that BEVs will be a successful failure. For this not to be the case, then the transition to BEVs must be coordinated with a transformation of the current scales and trends in private transportation. That is, a significant reduction in dependence on and individual ownership of powered vehicles, a radical reimagining of the nature of private conveyance and of public transportation.

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