scholarly journals LO98: Optimal length of observation for emergency department patients with syncope: a time to event analysis

CJEM ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (S1) ◽  
pp. S62
Author(s):  
V. Thiruganasambandamoorthy ◽  
M. Sivilotti ◽  
M.A. Mukarram ◽  
C. Leafloor ◽  
K. Arcot ◽  
...  

Introduction: Concern for occult serious conditions leads to variations in ED syncope management [hospitalization, duration of ED/inpatient monitoring including Syncope Observation Units (SOU) for prolonged monitoring]. We sought to develop evidence-based recommendations for duration of ED/post-ED ECG monitoring using the Canadian Syncope Risk Score (CSRS) by assessing the time to serious adverse event (SAE) occurrence. Methods: We enrolled adults with syncope at 6 EDs and collected demographics, time of syncope and ED arrival, CSRS predictors and time of SAE. We stratified patients as per the CSRS (low, medium and high risk as ≤0, 1-3 and ≥4 respectively). 30-day adjudicated SAEs included death, myocardial infarction, arrhythmia, structural heart disease, pulmonary embolism or serious hemorrhage. We categorized arrhythmias, interventions for arrhythmias and death from unknown cause as arrhythmic SAE and the rest as non-arrhythmic SAE. We performed Kaplan-Meier analysis using time of ED registration for primary and time of syncope for secondary analyses. Results: 5,372 patients (mean age 54.3 years, 54% females, and 13.7% hospitalized) were enrolled with 538 (10%) patients suffering SAE (0.3% died due to an unknown cause and 0.5% suffered ventricular arrhythmia). 64.8% of SAEs occurred within 6 hours of ED arrival. The probability for any SAE or arrhythmia was highest within 2-hours of ED arrival for low-risk patients (0.65% and 0.31%; dropped to 0.54% and 0.06% after 2-hours) and within 6-hours for the medium and high-risk patients (any SAE 6.9% and 17.4%; arrhythmia 6.5% and 18.9% respectively) which also dropped after 6-hours (any SAE 0.99% and 2.92%; arrhythmia 0.78% and 3.07% respectively). For any CSRS threshold, the risk of arrhythmia was highest within the first 15-days (for CSRS ≥2 patients 15.6% vs. 0.006%). ED monitoring for 2-hours (low-risk) and 6-hours (medium and high-risk) and using a CSRS ≥2 cut-off for outpatient 15-day ECG monitoring will lead to 52% increase in arrhythmia detection. The majority (82.2%) arrived to the ED within 2-hours (median time 1.1 hours) and secondary analysis yielded similar results. Conclusion: Our study found 2 and 6 hours of ED monitoring for low-risk and medium/high-risk CSRS patients respectively, with 15-day outpatient ECG monitoring for CSRS ≥2 patients will improve arrhythmia detection without the need for hospitalization or observation units.

2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (7_suppl) ◽  
pp. 68-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
Phuoc T. Tran ◽  
Amol Narang ◽  
Ashwin Ram ◽  
Scott P. Robertson ◽  
Pei He ◽  
...  

68 Background: In patients with localized prostate cancer undergoing radiation therapy (RT) +/- androgen deprivation therapy (ADT), an end of radiation (EOR) PSA obtained during the last week of RT may serve as an early post-treatment predictor of poor outcomes and identify patients in whom to pursue treatment intensification or novel therapies. Methods: We reviewed an IRB-monitored, prospectively acquired database of patients with prostate cancer treated with definitive RT at our institution from 1993-2007 (n=890). Patients with an available EOR PSA were divided into two cohorts and analyzed separately based on inclusion of ADT into the treatment regimen. EOR PSA thresholds of 0.5 ng/mL and 1.0 ng/mL were explored. Multivariate analysis was performed to determine prognostic factors for biochemical failure-free survival (BFFS, Phoenix criteria) and overall survival (OS). Kaplan-Meier survival curves were constructed, with stratification by EOR PSA thresholds. Results: Median age was 69 years, with an even distribution of NCCN low risk (33.5%), intermediate risk (34.0%), and high risk (32.5%) patients. Median RT dose was 7020 cGy, and 54.5% were treated with ADT. Median follow-up of the entire cohort was 11.7 yrs. EOR PSA level was available for the majority of patients (77.5%). On multivariate analysis, EOR PSA >0.5 ng/mL was significantly associated with worse BFFS (p<0.0001) and OS (p<0.0001). In the subset of patients undergoing RT with ADT for NCCN intermediate/high risk disease, 5 yr BFFS was more disparate based an EOR PSA threshold of 0.5 ng/mL (5 yr BFFS: 87.3% vs. 41.1%, p<0.001), than initial NCCN risk level (5 yr BFFS: 88.7% vs. 76.9%, p=0.038). In NCCN low risk patients undergoing definitive RT alone, an EOR PSA threshold of 1.0 ng/mL was significantly prognostic of outcome (5 yr BFFS: 100.0% vs. 88.6%, p=0.024). Conclusions: For NCCN intermediate/high risk patients undergoing RT with ADT, EOR PSA >0.5 ng/mL may represent a better surrogate for poor outcomes than initial risk group. In addition, NCCN low risk patients undergoing RT alone who obtained an EOR PSA ≤1.0 ng/mL experienced excellent BFFS. Prospective evaluation of the utility of EOR PSA should be explored.


2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (4_suppl) ◽  
pp. 845-845
Author(s):  
Ofer Margalit ◽  
Ronac Mamtani ◽  
Yu-Xiao Yang ◽  
Kim Anna Reiss ◽  
Talia Golan ◽  
...  

845 Background: The IDEA pooled analysis compared 3 to 6 months of adjuvant chemotherapy for newly defined low- and high-risk stage III colon cancer patients, suggesting low-risk patients may be offered only 3 months of treatment. We aimed to evaluate the benefit of monotherapy vs doublet chemotherapy in low and high IDEA risk groups. Methods: Using the NCDB (2004-2014) we identified 56,728 and 47,557 individuals as low and high IDEA risk groups, respectively. We used multivariate COX regression to evaluate the magnitude of survival differences between IDEA risk groups, according to treatment intensity (doublet vs monotherapy). In a secondary analysis, we examined the predictive value of subgroups of age. Results: Low and high IDEA risk groups derived similar benefit from doublet chemotherapy compared to monotherapy, with hazard ratios of 0.83 (95%CI 0.79-0.86) and 0.80 (95%CI 0.78-0.83), respectively. The only subpopulations that did not benefit from doublet chemotherapy were low-risk patients above the age of 72 (HR = 0.95, 95%CI 0.90-1.01) and high-risk patients above the age of 85 (HR = 0.90, 95%CI 0.77-1.05). Conclusions: IDEA risk classification does not predict benefit from doublet chemotherapy in stage III colon cancer. However, omission of oxaliplatin can be considered in IDEA low-risk patients above the age of 72.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ting-Yu Lin ◽  
Wei-Jung Chang ◽  
Chen-Yang Hsu ◽  
Chao-Chih Lai ◽  
Amy Ming-Fang Yen ◽  
...  

Background: The impact of remdesivir on length of stay of hospitalization, high-risk state, and death stratified by the severity of COVID-19 at enrollment is controversial. Methods: We applied a simulated two-arm controlled study design to the data on compassionate use of remdesivir as a secondary analysis. Dynamics of risk states and death from COVID-19 patients defined by the six-point disease severity recommended by the WHO R&D and the time to discharge from hospital were used to evaluate the efficacy of remdesivir treatment compared with standard care. Results: Stratified by the risk state at enrollment, low-risk patients exhibited the highest efficacy of remdesivir in reducing subsequent progression to high-risk state by 67% (relative risk (RR)=0.33,95% CI: 0.30-0.35) and further to death by 55% (RR=0.45, 95%CI: 0.39-0.50). For the medium-risk patients, less but still statistically significant efficacy results were noted in reducing progression to high-risk state by 52% (RR=0.48, 95% CI: 0.45-0.51) and further to death by 40% (RR=0.60, 95% CI:0.54-0.66). High-risk state patients treated with remdesivir led to a 25% statistically significant reduction in death (RR=0.75, 95% CI: 0.69-0.82). Regarding the outcome of discharge, remdesivir treatment was most effective for medium-risk patients at enrollment (RR: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.35-1.47) followed by high- (RR=1.34, 95% CI: 1.27-1.42) and low-risk patients (RR=1.28, 95% CI: 1.25-1.31). Conclusion: Our results with a simulated two-arm controlled study have provided a new insight into the precision treatment of remdesivir for COVID-19 patients based on risk-stratified efficacy.


Blood ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 138 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 4718-4718
Author(s):  
Afsaneh M. Shariatpanahi ◽  
Sarah Grasedieck ◽  
Matthew C. Jarvis ◽  
Faezeh Borzooee ◽  
Reuben S. Harris ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: The prognosis of MM is determined by affected organs, tumor burden as measured by e.g., the international staging system (ISS), disease biology such as cytogenetic abnormalities, and response to therapy. The outcome of high-risk MM patients classified by ISS or adverse risk cytogenetics is not uniform and patients show heterogeneous survival. Recent insights into the pathogenesis of MM highlighted genome/transcriptome editing as well as inflammation as drivers for the onset and progression of MM. We hypothesized that inclusion of molecular features into risk stratification could potentially resolve the challenge of accurately distinguishing between high-risk and low-risk MM patients at initial diagnosis and improve outcome. Aim: We aimed to create a simple molecular risk score to identify unrecognized patient subgroups, who have been previously misclassified by current risk stratifiers. Method: The Multiple Myeloma Research Foundation CoMMpass study genomics dataset, combining mRNA Seq and clinical data from more than 700 MM patients, allowed us to evaluate the prognostic value of demographic and clinical parameters, cytogenetics, and gene expression levels of APOBEC genes as well as inflammation-modulating cytokines in MM patients. We calculated hazard ratios and Kaplan-Meier survival estimates for all extracted features. Combining clinical variables that were significantly associated with PFS and OS, we then applied machine learning approaches to identify the most accurate classification model to define a new risk score that is easy to compute and able to stratify NDMM patients more accurately than cytogenetics-based classifiers. Based on a Kaplan-Meier survival curve analysis, we then evaluated the performance of our newly built EI score in sub-classifying of current multiple myeloma risk stratifiers. Results: Based on machine learning models, we defined a weighted OS/PFS risk score (Editor-Inflammation (EI) score) based on mRNA expression of APOBEC2, APOBEC3B, IL11, TGFB1, TGFB3, as well as ß2-microglobulin and LDH serum levels. We showed that the EI score subclassified patients into high-risk, intermediate-risk, and low-risk prognostic groups and demonstrated superior performance (C-index: 0.76) compared to ISS (C-index: 0.66) and R-ISS (C-index: 0.64). We further showed that EI low-risk patients do not benefit from autograft and maintenance therapy. Re-classification of ISS (Figure 1a, b, c) and R-ISS risk groups further confirmed the superiority of the EI score. In addition, the EI score identified previously unrecognized distinct subgroups of MM patients with adverse risk cytogenetics but good prognosis (Figure 1d, e, f). For example, the EI score excellently subclassified del(17p) MM patients into three main risk subgroups including a super low-risk group (none of them has p53 mut) with 5-year OS of 100%, an intermediate-risk group (30% of these patients also have p53 mut) with 5-year OS rate of 75%, and a very poor prognosis group of patients (40% of these patients also have p53 mut) with 5-year OS rate of 0% (2y OS: 40%) (Figure 1f). In line, we could show that patients with del(17p) and high EI score exhibit an enrichment of APOBEC induced genomic mutations compared to intermediate-risk and low-risk patients supporting the hypothesis that del(17p) along with high APOBEC expression levels activate the APOBEC mutation program and thus create an optimal environment for tumor progression. These findings support the necessity of a prognostic score that more accurately reflects MM disease biology. Conclusion: Although MM is considered as an incurable disease, an improved risk stratification could help to identify previously unrecognized low- and high-risk patient subgroups that are over- or undertreated and lead to improved outcomes. Our EI score is a simple score that is based on recent insights into MM biology and accurately identifies high-risk and low-risk newly diagnosed MM patients as well as misclassified MM patients in different cytogenetic and ISS risk subgroups. Figure 1 Figure 1. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.


Blood ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 112 (11) ◽  
pp. 3633-3633
Author(s):  
Nisha L Jacobs ◽  
Shernan G Holtan ◽  
Luis F Porrata ◽  
Svetomir N Markovic ◽  
Ayalew Tefferi ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: The prognostic significance of lymphocyte counts and immune status has been carefully examined in lymphoid malignancies, but the importance of the lymphocyte count in chronic myeloid neoplasms is less clear. In a recent analysis of MDS cases associated with deletion of chromosome 5q (Holtan SG et al AmJHem 2008 Epub 12Jun), we observed that an ALC >1.2 × 109 cells/L at diagnosis is independently associated with improved survival. The prognostic value of ALC in MDS not associated with del(5q) is unknown. Methods: We reviewed the medical records of patients without del(5q) diagnosed with MDS at our institution over a 10-year period and gathered data on complete blood counts and leukocyte differentials, bone marrow findings, and clinical course. Inclusion criteria included diagnosis within 6 months prior to initial consultation at our institution and <20% marrow blasts. Patients were classified according to the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) and the WHO-classification based Prognostic Scoring System (WPSS). Results: The median age of the 503 included patients (360 M, 143 F) was 69 years (range 20–91). Median follow-up was 14 months, and 65% of patients were known to have died with an overall median survival of 36 months. Cytogenetic results as classified by the IPSS were favorable in 326 (65%) patients, intermediate in 112 (22%), and poor in 65 (13%). Both IPSS and WPSS accurately stratified patients, but the WPSS was better at identifying the lowest and highest risk patients. Survival by IPSS risk group was as follows: low-risk disease (n=95, median survival 41.8 months), intermediate-1 (n=285, 23.6 months), 106 with intermediate-2 (n=106, 14.1 months), and high-risk (n=17, 8.05 months). WPSS risk groups included very low risk (n=87; median survival 71.9 months), low risk (n=149, 28.8 months), intermediate risk (n=85, 19.3 months), high risk (n=143, 14.4 months), and very high risk (n=39, 8.8 months). In univariate analysis, factors associated with poorer survival included advanced age (p = 0.0012), higher-risk WHO subtype (p<0.0001), increased marrow blast percentage (p<0.0001), poor-risk karyotype (p<0.0001), higher IPSS score or WPSS score (p<0.0001), lower hemoglobin (p<0.0001), lower MCV (p=0.03), lower ALC (p=0.001), and lower platelets (p=0.001). Factors not associated with survival included sex and ANC. In a multivariate model including only baseline CBC parameters, hemoglobin >10 g/dL (p < 0.001), MCV >96 fl (p = 0.0493), ALC >1.2 × 109/L (p = 0.0449), and platelet count >100 × 109/L (p = 0.0046) were associated with improved survival. A high baseline ALC also maintained independent prognostic significance in a multivariate model against the IPSS (RR 0.746, 95% CI: 0.598, 0.933, p = 0.0099), and the raw WPSS score (RR 0.791, 95% CI 0.633, 0.987, p=0.037) but not the WPSS group (p=0.0794). There was no significant difference in the distribution of IPSS scores between the ALC >1.2 × 109 cells/L and the ALC ≤ 1.2 × 109 cells/L groups, although there were significantly more WPSS high risk patients in the low baseline ALC group (p = 0.0163). The creation of an ALC-modified IPSS score by adding 0.5 point for an ALC ≤ 1.2 × 109 cells/L resulted in a significant increase in median overall survival of the low risk group (41.8 months versus 66.1 months, p < 0.001, Figure 1). Conclusion: ALC is a novel and easily obtained prognostic marker in MDS that provides information complementary to existing prognostic scoring systems. Figure 1. Kaplan-Meier curves based upon IPSS (a) and the ALC-modified IPSS (b), where 0.5 point was added for an ALC ≤ 1.2 × 109 cells/L. Figure 1. Kaplan-Meier curves based upon IPSS (a) and the ALC-modified IPSS (b), where 0.5 point was added for an ALC ≤ 1.2 × 109 cells/L.


Author(s):  
Yan Fan ◽  
Hong Shen ◽  
Brandon Stacey ◽  
David Zhao ◽  
Robert J. Applegate ◽  
...  

AbstractThe purpose of this study was to explore the utility of echocardiography and the EuroSCORE II in stratifying patients with low-gradient severe aortic stenosis (LG SAS) and preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF ≥ 50%) with or without aortic valve intervention (AVI). The study included 323 patients with LG SAS (aortic valve area ≤ 1.0 cm2 and mean pressure gradient < 40 mmHg). Patients were divided into two groups: a high-risk group (EuroSCORE II ≥ 4%, n = 115) and a low-risk group (EuroSCORE II < 4%, n = 208). Echocardiographic and clinical characteristics were analyzed. All-cause mortality was used as a clinical outcome during mean follow-up of 2 ± 1.3 years. Two-year cumulative survival was significantly lower in the high-risk group than the low-risk patients (62.3% vs. 81.7%, p = 0.001). AVI tended to reduce mortality in the high-risk patients (70% vs. 59%; p = 0.065). It did not significantly reduce mortality in the low-risk patients (82.8% with AVI vs. 81.2%, p = 0.68). Multivariable analysis identified heart failure, renal dysfunction and stroke volume index (SVi) as independent predictors for mortality. The study suggested that individualization of AVI based on risk stratification could be considered in a patient with LG SAS and preserved LVEF.


2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 680-690
Author(s):  
Michiel C. Mommersteeg ◽  
Stella A. V. Nieuwenburg ◽  
Wouter J. den Hollander ◽  
Lisanne Holster ◽  
Caroline M. den Hoed ◽  
...  

Abstract Introduction Guidelines recommend endoscopy with biopsies to stratify patients with gastric premalignant lesions (GPL) to high and low progression risk. High-risk patients are recommended to undergo surveillance. We aimed to assess the accuracy of guideline recommendations to identify low-risk patients, who can safely be discharged from surveillance. Methods This study includes patients with GPL. Patients underwent at least two endoscopies with an interval of 1–6 years. Patients were defined ‘low risk’ if they fulfilled requirements for discharge, and ‘high risk’ if they fulfilled requirements for surveillance, according to European guidelines (MAPS-2012, updated MAPS-2019, BSG). Patients defined ‘low risk’ with progression of disease during follow-up (FU) were considered ‘misclassified’ as low risk. Results 334 patients (median age 60 years IQR11; 48.7% male) were included and followed for a median of 48 months. At baseline, 181/334 (54%) patients were defined low risk. Of these, 32.6% were ‘misclassified’, showing progression of disease during FU. If MAPS-2019 were followed, 169/334 (51%) patients were defined low risk, of which 32.5% were ‘misclassified’. If BSG were followed, 174/334 (51%) patients were defined low risk, of which 32.2% were ‘misclassified’. Seven patients developed gastric cancer (GC) or dysplasia, four patients were ‘misclassified’ based on MAPS-2012 and three on MAPS-2019 and BSG. By performing one additional endoscopy 72.9% (95% CI 62.4–83.3) of high-risk patients and all patients who developed GC or dysplasia were identified. Conclusion One-third of patients that would have been discharged from GC surveillance, appeared to be ‘misclassified’ as low risk. One additional endoscopy will reduce this risk by 70%.


2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 1075
Author(s):  
Luca Bedon ◽  
Michele Dal Bo ◽  
Monica Mossenta ◽  
Davide Busato ◽  
Giuseppe Toffoli ◽  
...  

Although extensive advancements have been made in treatment against hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the prognosis of HCC patients remains unsatisfied. It is now clearly established that extensive epigenetic changes act as a driver in human tumors. This study exploits HCC epigenetic deregulation to define a novel prognostic model for monitoring the progression of HCC. We analyzed the genome-wide DNA methylation profile of 374 primary tumor specimens using the Illumina 450 K array data from The Cancer Genome Atlas. We initially used a novel combination of Machine Learning algorithms (Recursive Features Selection, Boruta) to capture early tumor progression features. The subsets of probes obtained were used to train and validate Random Forest models to predict a Progression Free Survival greater or less than 6 months. The model based on 34 epigenetic probes showed the best performance, scoring 0.80 accuracy and 0.51 Matthews Correlation Coefficient on testset. Then, we generated and validated a progression signature based on 4 methylation probes capable of stratifying HCC patients at high and low risk of progression. Survival analysis showed that high risk patients are characterized by a poorer progression free survival compared to low risk patients. Moreover, decision curve analysis confirmed the strength of this predictive tool over conventional clinical parameters. Functional enrichment analysis highlighted that high risk patients differentiated themselves by the upregulation of proliferative pathways. Ultimately, we propose the oncogenic MCM2 gene as a methylation-driven gene of which the representative epigenetic markers could serve both as predictive and prognostic markers. Briefly, our work provides several potential HCC progression epigenetic biomarkers as well as a new signature that may enhance patients surveillance and advances in personalized treatment.


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