What Is the Future of the Wine-Grape Industry in Veneto? Evidence from a Micro-Macro Prediction Model

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 394-402
Author(s):  
Laura Onofri ◽  
Federica Bianchin ◽  
Vasco Boatto ◽  
Maikol Furlani ◽  
Francesco Pecci ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Quantitative Assessment ◽  
Integrated Model ◽  
Wine Grape ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
The Future ◽  
Jel Classifications

AbstractThis article presents a micro-macro integrated model/framework for the disaggregated quantitative assessment of the impacts of various shocks generated in five socio-economic and climate-driven simulations on the wine-grape sector in Veneto, Italy. (JEL Classifications: C01, C67, Q12, Q54)

scholarly journals Spreading predictability in complex networks

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Na Zhao ◽  
Jian Wang ◽  
Yong Yu ◽  
Jun-Yan Zhao ◽  
Duan-Bing Chen
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Complex Networks ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Experimental Results ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
Macro Scale ◽  
Good Consistency ◽  
The Future ◽  
Rumor Control

AbstractMany state-of-the-art researches focus on predicting infection scale or threshold in infectious diseases or rumor and give the vaccination strategies correspondingly. In these works, most of them assume that the infection probability and initially infected individuals are known at the very beginning. Generally, infectious diseases or rumor has been spreading for some time when it is noticed. How to predict which individuals will be infected in the future only by knowing the current snapshot becomes a key issue in infectious diseases or rumor control. In this report, a prediction model based on snapshot is presented to predict the potentially infected individuals in the future, not just the macro scale of infection. Experimental results on synthetic and real networks demonstrate that the infected individuals predicted by the model have good consistency with the actual infected ones based on simulations.

Long-Term Prospects of the International Wine Trade

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 442-450 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Bargain ◽  
Jean-Marie Cardebat ◽  
Raphael Chiappini ◽  
Corentin Laffitte
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Great Emphasis ◽  
Market Structures ◽  
On Demand ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Comparative Advantages ◽  
The Future ◽  
Jel Classifications ◽  
Wine Trade

AbstractThis article discusses key comparative advantages of wine-producing nations and suggest prospective views on their evolution. Our methodology is twofold. First, we study comparative advantages in 16 countries using Porter's diamond. Then, we report results from a survey in which wine economists are asked to assess the future trade performance of these countries. Results are relatively consistent across methods regarding the future “heavy weights” like China, but also New Zealand and Chile, countries show the greatest potential to succeed in the future global wine trade. It is also expected that Georgia, the United Kingdom, and Australia play an important role, although to a lesser extent. Our findings indicate that comparative advantages in wine trade are neither uniform nor static; especially, terroir is no longer sufficient. The diamond approach contradicts experts from two countries in particular, France and Argentina, suggesting that experts put great emphasis on demand and market structures as key trade determinants for the future. (JEL Classifications: F14, Q17)

scholarly journals Muslims in France: features of the integrated model

2012 ◽  
pp. 98-102
Author(s):  
A. V. Veretevskaya
Keyword(s):  
Integrated Model ◽  
Integration Model ◽  
Muslim Immigrants ◽  
The Future ◽  
Modern Status

The article deals with an acute problem of integration of Muslim immigrants and their descendants in France. The author follows the problem throughout its history and analyzes its modern status. The article provides thorough analysis of the French Integration Model. The author concludes with a prospect on its use in the future.

scholarly journals A Novel Approach for Forest Fragmentation Susceptibility Mapping and Assessment: A Case Study from the Indian Himalayan Region

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (20) ◽  
pp. 4090
Author(s):  
Amit Kumar Batar ◽  
Hideaki Shibata ◽  
Teiji Watanabe
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fragmentation ◽  
Integrated Model ◽  
Himalayan Region ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Forest Landscape ◽  
Indian Himalayan Region ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Causative Factors ◽  
The Future

An estimation of where forest fragmentation is likely to occur is critically important for improving the integrity of the forest landscape. We prepare a forest fragmentation susceptibility map for the first time by developing an integrated model and identify its causative factors in the forest landscape. Our proposed model is based upon the synergistic use of the earth observation data, forest fragmentation approach, patch forests, causative factors, and the weight-of-evidence (WOE) method in a Geographical Information System (GIS) platform. We evaluate the applicability of the proposed model in the Indian Himalayan region, a region of rich biodiversity and environmental significance in the Indian subcontinent. To obtain a forest fragmentation susceptibility map, we used patch forests as past evidence of completely degraded forests. Subsequently, we used these patch forests in the WOE method to assign the standardized weight value to each class of causative factors tested by the Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) method. Finally, we prepare a forest fragmentation susceptibility map and classify it into five levels: very low, low, medium, high, and very high and test its validity using 30% randomly selected patch forests. Our study reveals that around 40% of the study area is highly susceptible to forest fragmentation. This study identifies that forest fragmentation is more likely to occur if proximity to built-up areas, roads, agricultural lands, and streams is low, whereas it is less likely to occur in higher altitude zones (more than 2000 m a.s.l.). Additionally, forest fragmentation will likely occur in areas mainly facing south, east, southwest, and southeast directions and on very gentle and gentle slopes (less than 25 degrees). This study identifies Himalayan moist temperate and pine forests as being likely to be most affected by forest fragmentation in the future. The results suggest that the study area would experience more forest fragmentation in the future, meaning loss of forest landscape integrity and rich biodiversity in the Indian Himalayan region. Our integrated model achieved a prediction accuracy of 88.7%, indicating good accuracy of the model. This study will be helpful to minimize forest fragmentation and improve the integrity of the forest landscape by implementing forest restoration and reforestation schemes.

scholarly journals When the Going Gets Tough, How Do We Perceive the Future?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie J. Tepper ◽  
Neil Anthony Lewis
Keyword(s):  
Time Perception ◽  
Integrated Model ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Social And Behavioral Sciences ◽  
Behavioral Sciences ◽  
Intervention Practice ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Future ◽  
Goal Directed Behavior ◽  
Experienced Difficulty

People struggle to stay motivated to work toward difficult goals. Sometimes the feeling of difficulty signals that the goal is important and worth pursuing; other times, it signals that the goal is impossible and should be abandoned. In this paper, we argue that how difficulty is experienced depends on how we perceive and experience the timing of difficult events. We synthesize research from across the social and behavioral sciences and propose a new integrated model to explain how components of time perception interact with interpretations of experienced difficulty to influence motivation and goal-directed behavior. Although these constructs have been studied separately in previous research, we suggest that these factors are inseparable and that an integrated model will help us to better understand motivation and predict behavior. We conclude with new empirical questions to guide future research and by discussing the implications of this research for both theory and intervention practice.

Study on Byproducts Recycling in Eco-Industrial Parks

2013 ◽  
Vol 788 ◽  
pp. 288-292 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao Long Gao ◽  
Rui Qing Li ◽  
Ran Li
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Assessment ◽  
Industrial Symbiosis ◽  
Industrial System ◽  
Industrial Parks ◽  
The Future ◽  
Two Indices ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Future Direction

Eco-industrial parks represent the future direction of the development of industrial system. In order to reduce their impacts on the environment, and increase the recycling degree of byproducts , this paper has made quantitative assessment on the stability of byproducts recycling web and the rate of byproducts recycling by two indices. Based on the existing research, the thesis has contributed to applying the indices to the Kalundborg industrial symbiosis, the example of EIPs. By calculating the two indices, results have proved the feasibility of the indices. However, efforts should be paid to achieve the accuracy and integrity of data.

Research on bra component design and perceptual image prediction

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fang Fang ◽  
Caili Hu ◽  
Ting Ting Yan
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Psychology ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Indicator System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Class Theory ◽  
Female Consumers ◽  
Component Design ◽  
Computer Aided ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to apply the theory of perceptual image to clothing, study the effect of bra components on the perceptual image of Chinese female consumers aged 18 to 27, explore the relationship between them, promote the computer-aided bra design to be more rapid and accurate and meet consumer's needs better.Design/methodology/approachIn this paper, cognitive psychology and mathematical analysis methods were used, and two experiments were conducted. A reaction time experiment was conducted based on 3D virtual bra samples, proving that bra components have an effect on the consumer's perceptual image and obtaining a revised bra component design indicator system by multi-dimensional Scaling (MDS). A projection experiment was conducted to study what kind of relationship exists between the two, and a prediction model was constructed by the quantitative I-class theory.FindingsIt is found that bra components have an effect on perceptual image of Chinese female consumers aged 18 to 27. A total of five important components (cup area, center front height, torso width, side wing width and center back shape) that affect the consumer's perceptual image were identified by MDS and references analysis, and then a bra perceptual image space composed of five pairs of words was constructed by subjective evaluation and cluster analysis. What is more, a prediction model was obtained by the quantitative I-class theory; after testing, the model can visually and effectively predict consumer's perceptual image according to bra components indicators, which provide a convenience for the positive design of bras.Research limitations/implicationsIn this article, the authors just studied bra components, but did not take fabric, color and other factors that also affect the perceptual image into consideration. Further research can use this method to study other important influential factors as well as their comprehensive impact. Also, the subjects are Chinese young women; consumers of other age or from other countries are not involved, and more extensive research can be done in the future.Practical implicationsThe bra component indicator system can help to build a more systematic and clearer bra design library, which provides convenience for designers to search and use them quickly, improving the efficiency of bra design. The prediction model is also helpful to bra designers and companies. When they already design a bra, they can use this model to predict consumer's perceptual image, thus carry out more accurate market positioning and promotion. When they want to satisfy consumers or design a specific effect, they can also refer to this model to reverse design of components. In general, the outcomes of this paper can help companies to quickly establish a computer-aided bra design system, which is conducive to designers to accurately design and better meet market's needs, and the method is also a good attempt to apply the theory of perceptual image in psychology to clothing and can be extended to other relevant fields in the future.Originality/valueBased on cognitive psychology, this paper attempts to apply the theory of perceptual image in psychology into clothing and takes bra as an example to study the relationship between bra components and consumer's perceptual image. The prediction model constructed here is conducive to the development of bra design and to meet personalized needs of consumers. This method can also be extended to other fields in the future.

A Data-Driven Two-Stage Prediction Model for Train Primary-Delay Recovery Time

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (07) ◽  
pp. 921-940
Author(s):  
Bowen Gao ◽  
Dongxiu Ou ◽  
Decun Dong ◽  
Yusen Wu
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Knowledge Base ◽  
Recovery Time ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Delay Propagation ◽  
Proposed Model

Accurate prediction of train delay recovery is critical for railway incident management and providing passengers with accurate journey time. In this paper, a two-stage prediction model is proposed to predict the recovery time of train primary-delay based on the real records from High-Speed Railway (HSR). In Stage 1, two models are built to study the influence of feature space and model framework on the prediction accuracy of buffer time in each section or station. It is found that explicitly inputting the attribute features of stations and sections to the model, instead of implicit simulation, will improve the prediction accuracy effectively. For validation purpose, the proposed model has been compared with several alternative models, namely, Logistic Regression (LR), Artificial Neutral Network (ANN), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Gradient Boosting Tree (GBT). The results show that its remarkable performance is better than other schemes. Specifically, when the error is extended to 3[Formula: see text]min, the proposed model can achieve up to the accuracy of 94.63%. It proves that our method has high value in practical engineering application. Considering the delay propagation of trains is a complex process, our future study will focus on building delay propagation knowledge base and dispatcher experience knowledge base.

Current R & D Activities in the Study on Geosphere Stability

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takahiro Hanamuro ◽  
Ken-Ichi Yasue ◽  
Yoko Saito-Kokubu ◽  
Koichi Asamori ◽  
Tsuneari Ishimaru ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Hot Spring ◽  
Active Faults ◽  
Hydrogen Gas ◽  
Helium Isotope ◽  
Sea Level Changes ◽  
Detection Techniques ◽  
Geothermal Activity ◽  
The Future

The Japanese islands are located in a tectonically active zone. The scientific base is required for assessing the geosphere stability for long-term isolation of radioactive waste in Japan. JAEA is promoting the establishment of investigation method for geotectonic events affecting geosphere stability and prediction model for the future changes of geological environments, that is necessary for site selection and safety assessment of the HLW geological disposal. For seismicity and faulting, detection techniques for active faults without topographic surface expression, such as using helium isotope ratios in hot spring gases or detection of hydrogen gas, and studies on the assessment of fault evolution have been developed. For volcanism and geothermal activity, heat sources for anomalous geothermal activity in non-volcanic regions are considered. Detection techniques for high-temperature fluids and magma deep underground, using geophysical and geochemical approaches, were constructed. For uplift, denudation and climatic/sea-level changes, a methodology to predict the future topographic change was developed. Also, for dating techniques as an essential part to proceed on these studies, C-14 and Be-10 dating using AMS and (U-Th)/He dating using QMS and ICP-MS have been developed. We are planning the establishment of assessment methods for geosphere stability including assessment of the activity of faults encountered in underground excavations, development of long-term prediction model of volcanism and hydrothermal activities, and hydrogeological analyses considering topographic change.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document