The realization of fertility intentions in the context of childbearing postponement: comparison of transitional and post-transitional populations

2020 ◽  
Vol 53 (1) ◽  
pp. 82-97
Author(s):  
Jiřina Kocourková ◽  
Anna Šťastná
Keyword(s):  
Fertility Intentions ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Western European Country ◽  
Fertility Level ◽  
Younger Women ◽  
Ideal Family ◽  
Cohort Fertility ◽  
Lower Fertility ◽  
Late Childbearing ◽  
The Postponement

AbstractChildbearing postponement is a key demographic change that has been experienced by most European countries. It leads to a late-fertility pattern, with women realizing their reproductive plans preferentially after the age of 30. This may result in a lower fertility level. Since the ideal family size has not changed in most European countries, it has been argued that the end of the postponement transition further depends on the extent to which the lower fertility of younger women is compensated for by an increase in that of older women. Thus, the completion of the transition depends not only on the formation of a late childbearing pattern, but also on the capability of women to realize their reproductive plans if they commence childbearing later in their lives. This study employed a new approach to assess postponement transition based on analysis of the realization of the fertility intentions of women at later childbearing ages using survey panel data. A method that enables the differentiation between transitional and post-transitional cohorts was applied. The investigation was based on a comparison of the postponement transition in Czechia and France, the former being a post-communist and the latter a Western European country. It was found that despite having a similar pattern of fertility timing, Czechia and France underwent differing phases of postponement transition. The Czech population was identified as being transitional since only the ‘transition’ cohorts had completed their fertility during the period under study. These cohorts did not show a significant increase in realization of fertility intentions in later age. In contrast, the post-transitional French population is characterized by higher completed cohort fertility rates amongst women who entered motherhood at the age of 30 and over and by the significantly higher realization of fertility intentions for women aged 30–34 years.

scholarly journals Postponement and Recuperation in Cohort Fertility:Austria, Germany and Switzerland in a European Context

2012 ◽  
Vol 36 (2-3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomáš Sobotka ◽  
Kryštof Zeman ◽  
Ron Lesthaeghe ◽  
Tomas Frejka ◽  
Karel Neels
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Fertility Decline ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
The United States ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Reproductive Age ◽  
Relational Model ◽  
Fertility Level ◽  
German Speaking ◽  
Cohort Fertility

Across developed countries, cohorts of women born after World War II have seen a shift of childbearing towards later ages and a concomitant decline in fertility level. We study this shift using the notions of fertility postponement (fertility decline at younger ages) and subsequent recuperation (a compensatory fertility increase at higher reproductive ages). We apply order-specific data and extend and elaborate on two broad approaches to this process: 1) a basic benchmark model extensively used by Tomas Frejka and his colleagues and 2) a relational model proposed by Ron Lesthaeghe (2001). Our work focuses especially on three predominantly German-speaking countries, Austria, Germany and Switzerland, and compares them with selected European countries and the United States. We illustrate the usefulness of these two approaches for constructing projection scenarios of completed cohort fertility among women of reproductive age. Using three key indicators of the postponement transition – initial fertility level, absolute fertility decline at younger ages, and the relative degree of fertility “recuperation” at older ages – we demonstrate that each of these components is salient for explaining contemporary cross-country differences in cohort fertility. Recuperation is especially important, but is also clearly patterned by birth order: whereas all the countries analysed have experienced a vigorous recovery of delayed first births, pronounced differentials are observed with regard to the recuperation of second and particularly of third and later births. In line with the differentials observed, projected values of completed fertility in five European countries vary widely for the cohorts born in the early 1980s, ranging from 1.3 in the lowest scenario for Spain to over 1.8 in the highest scenario for the Czech Republic.

scholarly journals Estimation of Cohort Fertility Using Parity Progression Ratio

2020 ◽  
pp. 18-28
Author(s):  
Dhanendra Veer Shakya
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Fertility Level ◽  
Parity Progression ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Number Of Children ◽  
Parity Progression Ratio ◽  
History Of ◽  
Cohort Fertility ◽  
Children Ever Born ◽  
Using Data

This study attempts to analyze the levels and patterns of cohort fertility in Nepal in 2016 using data on parity progression ratios (PPRs). Simple PPRs, rather than synthetic PPRs or birth history of women, are used in this study from distribution of women by age and children ever born. Data on PPRs are used from 2016 Nepal Demographic and Health Survey to estimate cohort fertility of currently married and all women separately. Fertility is analyzed for different birth cohorts of women, specifically for birth cohorts of age groups 45-49, 20-24, 25-29, and 30-34 years, beside overall span of reproductive ages (15-49) for different purposes. The PPRs data are employed in this study in three different ways such as PPRs itself, proportion of women with at least ‘N’ number of children ever born (CEB), and cohort fertility rates. All three measures are implied to estimate cohort fertility of both currently married and all women separately. Fertility patterns are almost similar in all the three methods and other the measures show that the level of cohort fertility is still a little higher in Nepal, although it is declining gradually over time. The completed cohort fertility is estimated at around 4 in Nepal in 2016. The contribution of this article will be to check fertility level by applying this simple, but less common, method in estimating cohort fertility.

scholarly journals Microanálisis comparado de la transición demográfica en tres islas de las Azores, siglos XVIII-XX: Diferencias en el pasado, semejanzas en el presente.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Norberta Amorim ◽  
Francisco J. Marco Gracia ◽  
Filipe Salgado
Keyword(s):  
Rural Communities ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Transition Process ◽  
Population Pressure ◽  
Fertility Level ◽  
Birth Intervals ◽  
Age At Marriage ◽  
Several Variables ◽  
Close Proximity ◽  
Lower Fertility

The demographic transition is a global phenomenon. However, previous studies have demonstrated the existence of differences in its development between areas that are in close proximity. The aim of this article is to compare the process of demographic transition in the rural communities of three islands in the archipelago of the Azores (Pico, Flores and Corvo) using life course data for more than 250 years. Throughout the article several variables related to nuptiality, fertility, mortality and mobility have been analysed. Our results show clear differences between communities prior to the demographic transition and, to a lesser extent, during the demographic transition process. The island of Flores, for instance, has historically presented higher fertility because of a lower age at marriage. The island of Pico, on the other hand, had a lower fertility level, higher age at marriage and longer birth intervals. During the demographic transition, infant mortality first began to fall in Flores, therefore increasing population pressure. Since 1840, international migration and the abandonment of children served as mechanism to reduce the population pressure.

scholarly journals Misleading Policy Messages Derived from the Period TFR: Should We Stop Using It?

2011 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomáš Sobotka ◽  
Wolfgang Lutz
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Birth Spacing ◽  
Fertility Intentions ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Fertility Level ◽  
Relevant Question ◽  
Year 2000

Discussions about fertility in developed countries refer almost exclusively to the period Total Fertility Rate (TFR). We argue that the use of this indicator frequently leads to incorrect interpretations of period fertility levels and trends, resulting in distorted policy conclusions and, potentially, in misguided policies. We illustrate this with four policy-relevant examples, drawn from contemporary Europe. These illustrations show that the TFR (a) inflates the presumed gap between fertility intentions and realised fertility, (b) erroneously suggests a significant fertility increase in many countries of Europe after the year 2000, (c) often exaggerates the level of immigrants’ fertility and (d) frequently suggests that family-related policies which led to shorter birth spacing in fact brought an upward swing in fertility level. There seems to be no policy-relevant question for which the period TFR would be the indicator of choice to be preferred over other existing measures.

Impact of child mortality and sociodemographic attributes on family size desires: some data from urban India

1984 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 119-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. N. Saksena ◽  
J. N. Srivastava
Keyword(s):  
Child Mortality ◽  
Family Size ◽  
Family Education ◽  
City Hospital ◽  
Ideal Family Size ◽  
Urban Background ◽  
Younger Women ◽  
Ideal Family ◽  
The Family

SummaryUsing follow-up data on a sample of mothers who gave birth at a Lucknow city hospital, the family size ideals of the women were examined in relation to experienced and perceived levels of child mortality and socioeconomic and demographic characteristics.The fear of child mortality and their own experience tended to increase the size of family which the mothers considered to be ideal. Lower ideal family size was found among younger women, those who married at later ages and those currently using contraception. Family size preferences were also influenced by rural/urban background, religion, caste, type of family, education, income and occupation of husband and type of housing.

Kinderwunsch im Krieg: Kriegserfahrung und Fertilität in Deutschland im Zweiten Weltkrieg

2018 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 471-505
Author(s):  
Katerina Piro
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Family Planning ◽  
Infant Mortality ◽  
Qualitative Analysis ◽  
Married Couples ◽  
Source Material ◽  
World War ◽  
Lower Fertility ◽  
The Postponement ◽  
Excellent Source

Abstract Does the experience of war necessarily lead to lower fertility and the postponement of starting or enlarging a family? This qualitative analysis verifies the economic and sociological theories of family planning during war. The excellent source material from World War II in Germany allows for an analysis of a large number of ego-documents. The results imply that married couples were aware of the difficult circumstances and dealt with increased infertility, miscarriages and infant mortality. However, they did not let adversity interfere with their generative decisions. The experience of war did not deter people from planning, starting or building a family. It appears that during wartime, children fulfilled important psychological values for their (prospective) parents.

Family Policy and Fertility Intentions in 21 European Countries

2014 ◽  
Vol 76 (2) ◽  
pp. 428-445 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sunnee Billingsley ◽  
Tommy Ferrarini
Keyword(s):  
Family Policy ◽  
Fertility Intentions ◽  
European Countries

scholarly journals Features of Fertility and Marriagin the Capitals of Eastern European Countries

2020 ◽  
pp. 37-58
Author(s):  
S.Y. AKSYONOVA ◽  
L.I. SLYUSAR
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Fertility Level ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
Capital Cities ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
Big Cities ◽  
Urban And Rural Areas ◽  
Eastern European Countries

Demographic research is mainly aimed at analysing the diff erences between marriage and birth rates in urban and rural areas. Th ere is much less investigations which study the particularities of these demographic processes within the big cities. The special status of the capital city reinforces the interest of researchers to it. However, the capital city is oft en considered as particular district of the country and compared to other regions or provinces which may include urban and rural areas. Th e purpose of the proposed paper is to fi nd out the peculiarities of marriage and fertility in Kiev and other capitals of some countries of Eastern Europe on the background of the general characteristics of these processes (national level and urban area level), to identify similarities and diff erences between them. Th is research presented fi rst revealed common and specifi c characteristics of marriage, divorce and fertility in the capital cities of Eastern European countries. Th e study used such methods of scientifi c knowledge as comparison, analysis, generalization, graphical method. Demographic yearbooks of Poland, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Belarus, Ukraine for 2009-2018, and statistics from statistical sites in these countries and Slovakia were used for the detailed analysis. Th e important conditions for using statistical information were free access to it and the same methodology for calculating demographic indicators involved in the analysis. Among the common features of the development of demographic processes in the capital cities of the selected countries our attention was attracted by aging of marriage and motherhood which rate exceeded level in the whole country. Th e share of marriages aft er 30 years, the share of children born to women aged 35 and over among all births, the mean age of mothers at the birth in the capitals were considerable higher than the corresponding national indicators. Diff erences between capitals in the dynamics and structure of the processes of formation and dissolution of marriages are largely caused by national characteristics of the marital-family behaviour. In our study we question the universality of the well-known statement that big cities tend to have lower fertility rates comparison to other areas of country. Th e fertility level in some capitals could be both below and above the national average level.

scholarly journals A cohort perspective on the fertility postponement transition and low fertility in Central Europe

2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 109-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Branislav Šprocha ◽  
Pavol Tišliar ◽  
Luděk Šídlo
Keyword(s):  
Central Europe ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Time Span ◽  
Eastern Bloc ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Central European ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Cohort Fertility ◽  
The Postponement

Abstract Fertility postponement and the concomitant decline in fertility levels are the most prominent trends in the demographic behaviours of the former Eastern Bloc countries in Central Europe. A number of studies have analysed period fertility development but the cohort perspective is often neglected. The postponement transition has evolved over a long time span and affected many cohorts, so the cohort approach is appropriate for studying long-term changes in fertility tempo and quantum. A cohort analysis engenders an analysis in detail of the onset, dynamics and ultimate extent of this process. Using the cohort benchmark model, we have been able to pinpoint differences in postponement and recuperation levels and have combined it with projection scenarios. Thus we have been able to model the hypothetical trajectory of the completed cohort fertility rate. Our analysis highlights differences in the timing of the onset of the postponement transition, its trajectory and extent, as well as in the recuperation of postponed childbearing. These findings suggest differences in completed fertility across the selected four Central European countries are likely to continue and perhaps increase.

scholarly journals Does Money Matter? Childbearing Behaviour of Swedish Students in the 1980's and 1990's

2011 ◽  
pp. 5-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Thalberg
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Female Students ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Student Financial Aid ◽  
Earned Income ◽  
Lower Fertility ◽  
Economic Constraints ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The Postponement

Education is considered to be one of the primary factors behind postponement of childbearing, as students have significantly lower fertility than non-students of the same age. The low fertility of students may have many different explanations. This study focus on the impact of economic and policy factors on the relationship between study enrolment and childbearing in Sweden. Using longitudinal data it is examined whether the student financial aid reform of 1989 had any effect on female students childbearing behaviour and whether female students relative childbearing propensi-ties change when controlling for their earned income. The results show that the reform had no noticeable impact on students childbearing behaviour. However, first birth risks for female students in all age groups are clearly related to earnings, indicating that the postponement of childbearing until completion of education is, to some degree, a matter of economic constraints.

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