V.—The Decline of the Birth-Rate : Regularities Revealed by an Analysis of the Rates Observed in Certain European Countries

1939 ◽  
Vol 58 ◽  
pp. 55-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. S. Barclay ◽  
W. O. Kermack

During recent decades the vital statistics of the more developed countries of the world have exhibited two outstanding features: the first is a decline in the death‐rate, and the second a similar decline in the birth‐rate, the latter setting in some time after the former. It is generally realised that, for an adequate study of the changes involved, it is necessary, not merely to consider the crude death‐ and birth‐rates—that is, the number of deaths and births respectively per 1000 inhabitants—but also to take into account the age distribution of the population. In the case of death‐rates, for instance, it is important to know the specific death‐rates for each age-group—that is to say, for example, the annual number of deaths of persons aged twenty, per 1000 individuals of that particular age. In the same way the crude birth‐rate can only be properly interpreted when analysed in reference to the age of the mothers.

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamad H. Badii ◽  
Jorge Castillo ◽  
Jesús Fabian López

Key words: Growth, rates, poor, population, richAbstract. Human populations have grown at an unprecedented rate over the past three centuries. By 2001, the world population stood at 6.2 billion people. If the current trend of 1.4 % per year persists, the population will double in 51years. Most of that growth will occur in the less developed countries of Asia, Africa, and Latin America. There is a serious concern that the number of humans in the world and our impact on the environment will overload the life support systems of the earth. The crude birth rate is the number of births in a year divided by the average population. A more accurate measure of growth is the general fertility rate, which takes into account the age structure and fecundity of the population. The crude birth rate minus the crude death rate gives the rate of natural increase. When this rate reaches a level at which people are just replacing themselves, zero population growth is achieved. In the more highly developed countries of the world, growth has slowed are even reversed in recent years so that without immigration from other areas, population would be declining. The change from high birth and death rates that accompanies in industrialization is called a demographic transition. Many developing nations have already begun this transition. Death rates have fallen, but birth rates remain high. Some demographers believe that as infant mortality drops and economic development progresses so that people in these countries can be sure of secure future, they will complete the transition to a stable population or a high standard living. While larger populations bring many problems, they also may be a valuable resource of energy, intelligence, and enterprise that will make it possible to overcome resource limitation problems. A social just view argues that a more equitable distribution of wealth might reduce both excess population growth and environmental degradation. We have many more options now for controlling fertility than were available to our ancestors. Some techniques are safer than those available earlier; many are easier and more pleasant to use. Sometimes it takes deep changes in a culture to make family planning programs successful. Among these changes are improved social, educational, and economic status for women; higher values on individual children; accepting responsibility for our own lives; social security and political stability that give people the means and confidence to plan for the future; and knowledge, availability, and use of effective and acceptable means of birth control.Palabras claves: Crecimiento, poblacion, pobre, rico, tasaResumen. La poblacion humana ha crecido a una tasa inprecedente en los ultimos tres siglos. Para 2001 la poblacion mundial llego a 6.2 billiones. A una tasa actual de crecimiento de 1.4% annual, la poblaciona se duplicara en 51 anos. La mayoria del crecimiento ocurrira en los paises en via de desarrollo de Asia, Africa, y Latino America. Hay una preocupacion de que la poplacion humana y su impacto negativo sobre el medio ambiente pondra en peligro la existencia de los sytemas de soporte vital del mundo. La tasa cruda de nacimineto es el numero de nacimientos entre el promedio de la poblacion. Una medida mas exacta de crecimiento poblacional es la tasa general de fertilidad que toma en cuenta la estructura de la poblacion y la fecundidad poblacional. La diferencia entre la tasa cruda de nacimiento y la mortalidad nos da la tasa natural de incremento. Cuando esta tasa alcanza el nivel al cual la gente solamente remplaza a si mismo numericamente, se obtiene la tasa cero de crecimiento poblacional. En los países avanzadas del mundo, el crecimiento ha sido reducido o ha puesto en forma negativa, de tal modo que sin inmigracion en estos paises, la poblacion estará disminuyendo. El cambio de las tasas altas de nacimiento y mortalidad a las tasa bajas se denomina la transición demografica. Muchos países desarrolldos han empezado esta transición demográfica. La tasa de mortanda ha bajado en estos países sin que disminuyera la tasa de nacimiento. A medida que la tasa de mortalidad infantil se reduzca en estos países y la economía progresa mas y trae seguridad económico para la gente, entonces será possible una transición demográfica a una poblacion estable o un estandard de vida mas alta. Mientras que las poblaciones grandes traen muchos problemas, tamien pueden servir como recursos de enegia e inteligencia que permiten controlar el problema de la limitación de los recursos. Una idea de la justicia social argumenta que una distribución mas equitativa del capital puede reducir tanto el crecimiento excesivo poblacional como problemas ambientales. Hay muchos métodos de control de fertilidad en comparación con antes. Algunas técnicas son mas seguros, mas fácil de usar y mas placenteras que antes. Se requiere de cambios profundos culturales, como mejoramiento de estatus social, educacional, y económico, valores mas altos de los jóvenes, aceptar la responsabilidad en la vida, seguridad social, estabilidad política, el conocimiento, y el uso efectivo de medidas de control de natalidad, para permitir que la gente planea con seguridad hacia el futuro.


PEDIATRICS ◽  
1969 ◽  
Vol 44 (6) ◽  
pp. 1031-1034
Author(s):  
Myron E. Wegman

Infant mortality declined again in 1968, for the third successive year, and there is some evidence of a more rapidly downward trend in the unacceptably higher infant death rates which have existed among some population groups. The birth rate also declined again, but the marriage rate showed rather a sharp rise ( Table I ). With an excess of births over deaths of 1.55 million persons, the rate of natural increase was 7.8 per 1,000 population. Births Once more there was a decline in annual number of births, although a smaller one than last year. Nevertheless, with a rising population the birth rate fell to 17.4, the lowest ever recorded in the United States.


Blood ◽  
1947 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
MILTON S. SACKS ◽  
ISADORE SEEMAN

Abstract The recorded death rate from leukemia in the United States has risen continuously since 1900, with an accelerated rate of increase since 1930. The rise from a rate of 1.9 per 100,000 population in 1920 to 3.7 in 1940 represents an increase of 94.7 per cent in this twenty-year period. This increase cannot be accounted for by changes in the age distribution of the population, for the age specific death rates have increased in each age group. The factor of increasing recognition of the disease resulting from improved diagnostic technics and greater use of hospitals with their laboratory facilities must be given adequate consideration in an effort to determine the causes for the rising death rate. White persons are affected at a rate more than twice as great as nonwhites. Some of the difference must be attributed to variations in the availability of diagnostic services. Males experience a rate approximately one-third greater than females. Leukemia affects persons in the older ages, particularly over 55 years, with the greatest frequency, and the population under 5 years of age experiences a mortality rate higher than any other age under 45 years. In the intermediate ages the death rate falls to the lowest point. In 1940 the death rate from leukemia for all ages was 3.7 per 100,000 population. The highest rate, 15.7 per 100,000 occurred in the age group 75-84 years. Under 1 year the rate was 4.9 per 100,000. The lowest rate, 1.5 per 100,000, occurred in the ages from 15 to 2.4 years. Figures for the city of Baltimore for the five-year period 1939-1943 indicate an almost equal incidence of lymphoid and myeloid leukemia. Nearly two-thirds of the deaths studied in Baltimore were reported as acute leukemia. Acute myeloid leukemia appears to be more common than acute lymphoid. After age 45 chronic leukemia is more frequently observed; younger persons experience acute leukemia most commonly. Undoubtedly many deaths result from leukemia in which this disease was neither diagnosed nor recorded on a death certificate. Clinical evidence indicates that the causes in which this failure would occur most commonly are cancer, anemia, and diseases of the spleen. Statistical evidence reveals that these conditions are certified jointly with leukemia in a significant number and proportion of cases. Comparison of the experience of several countries indicates that the general trends of mortality from leukemia in the United States are common to the other communities. The death rates per 100,000 population in 1931 adjusted for differences in age and sex composition of the population were: United States, 3.5; England and Wales, 3.0; Paris 2.5; and Canada 2.3. Each year since 1940 more than 5,000 persons in the United States have died from leukemia.


1903 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 468-485 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. J. Barclay

Of all British colonies New Zealand is the one that most closely resembles Great Britain in size, in situation, and in climate. And the inhabitants of the two countries are of practically the same race. The vital statistics of New Zealand are therefore eminently suitable for comparison with those of Great Britain. In the present paper comparison has been restricted to the birth-rates and death-rates, and in this limited survey several points of interest present themselves.


1959 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 581 ◽  
Author(s):  
HN Turner ◽  
CHS Dolling ◽  
PHG Sheaffe

Estimates of death rates are given for four mating groups in a flock of approximately 1000 Merino ewes, for each year of age from 1½ to 10½. Three of the groups are under selection for clean wool weight and other characters, and the fourth is an unselected control. The flock is run under extensive grazing conditions, and death rates are based on ewes dead or missing between one pen-mating and the next. Between 1951 and 1957, the average death rate for ewes 1½ to 7½ years old was 2.2 per cent. per annum, while at the older ages the average was no higher than 7.3 per cent. During the drought year 1957-58 losses averaged 3.8 per cent. for ewes up to 6½ years old, then rose steeply with age to 45.6 per cent. for ewes 9½ years old. In neither period did the selected groups differ from the unselected control. Starting with the 1953 drop, all rams in the unselected control group have been retained for the study of age effects on them. Average losses to date in each age group have been less than 5 per cent.


1960 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 59-73 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leo A. Orleans

Whereas throughout most of the world the results of the 1953 censusregistration of Communist China, reporting a population of 582·6 million, evoked anxiety and even alarm, the Communists expressed only pride and overwhelming confidence. As a people “liberated from the oppressive chains of capitalism,” Communist leaders felt that their horizons were unlimited and that feeding and caring for a population of this size presented no problems under a system in which people are “the most precious of all categories of capital.” The simultaneous release of vital rates which indicated a birth rate of 37 per thousand population and a death rate of 17 per thousand, further stressed the “great vitality of the people of new China.” The 2 per cent, natural increase (excess of births over deaths), resulting in an annual population growth of some 12 million, was declared, in line with Marxist doctrine, to be an asset in a country with vast new lands and unexploited natural resources, where additional people create additional wealth.


PEDIATRICS ◽  
1996 ◽  
Vol 98 (6) ◽  
pp. 1007-1019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernard Guyer ◽  
Donna M. Strobino ◽  
Stephanie J. Ventura ◽  
Marian MacDorman ◽  
Joyce A. Martin

Recent trends in the vital statistics of the United States continued in 1995, including decreases in the number of births, the birth rate, the age-adjusted death rate, and the infant mortality rate; life expectancy at birth increased to a level equal to the record high of 75.8 years in 1992. Marriages and divorces both decreased. An estimated 3 900 089 infants were born during 1995, a decline of 1% from 1994. The preliminary birth rate for 1995 was 14.8 live births per 1000 total population, a 3% decline, and the lowest recorded in nearly two decades. The fertility rate, which relates births to women in the childbearing ages, declined to 65.6 live births per 1000 women 15 to 44 years old, the lowest rate since 1986. According to preliminary data for 1995, fertility rates declined for all racial groups with the gap narrowing between black and white rates. The fertility rate for black women declined 7% to a historic low level (71.7); the preliminary rate for white women (64.5) dropped just 1%. Fertility rates continue to be highest for Hispanic, especially Mexican-American, women. Preliminary data for 1995 suggest a 2% decline in the rate for Hispanic women to 103.7. The birth rate for teenagers has now decreased for four consecutive years, from a high of 62.1 per 1000 women 15 to 19 years old in 1991 to 56.9 in 1995, an overall decline of 8%. The rate of childbearing by unmarried mothers dropped 4% from 1994 to 1995, from 46.9 births per 1000 unmarried women 15 to 44 years old to 44.9, the first decline in the rate in nearly two decades. The proportion of all births occurring to unmarried women dropped as well in 1995, to 32.0% from 32.6% in 1994. Smoking during pregnancy dropped steadily from 1989 (19.5%) to 1994 (14.6%), a decline of about 25%. Prenatal care utilization continued to improve in 1995 with 81.2% of all mothers receiving care in the first trimester compared with 78.9% in 1993. Preliminary data for 1995 suggests continued improvement to 81.2%. The percent of infants delivered by cesarean delivery declined slightly to 20.8% in 1995. The percent of low birth weight (LBW) infants continued to climb in 1994 rising to 7.3%, from 7.2% in 1993. The proportion of LBW improved slightly among black infants, declining from 13.3% to 13.2% between 1993 and 1994. Preliminary figures for 1995 suggest continued decline in LBW for black infants (13.0%). The multiple birth ratio rose to 25.7 per 1000 births for 1994, an increase of 2% over 1993 and 33% since 1980. Age-adjusted death rates in 1995 were lower for heart disease, malignant neoplasms, accidents, and homicide. Although the total number of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection deaths increased slightly from 42 114 in 1994 to an estimated 42 506 in 1995, the age-adjusted death rate for HIV infection did not increase, which may indicate a leveling off of the steep upward trend in mortality from HIV infection since 1987. Nearly 15 000 children between the ages of 1-14 years died in the United States (US) in 1995. The death rate for children 1 to 4 years old in 1995 was 40.4 per 100 000 population aged 1 to 4 years, 6% lower than the rate of 42.9 in 1994. The 1995 death rate for 5-to 14-year-olds was 22.1,2% lower than the rate of 22.5 in 1994. Since 1979, death rates have declined by 37% for children 1 to 4 years old, and by 30% for children 5 to 14 years old. For children 1 to 4 years old, the leading cause of death was injuries, which accounted for an estimated 2277 deaths in 1995, 36% of all deaths in this age group. Injuries were the leading cause of death for 5-to 14-year-olds as well, accounting for an even higher percentage (41%) of all deaths. In 1995, the preliminary infant mortality rate was 7.5 per 1000 live births, 6% lower than 1994, and the lowest ever recorded in the US. The decline occurred for neonatal as well as postneonatal mortality rates, and among white and black infants alike. Sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) rates have dropped precipitously since 1992, when the American Academy of Pediatrics issued recommendations that infants be placed on their backs or sides to sleep to reduce the risk of SIDS. SIDS dropped to the third leading cause of infant death in 1994, after being the second leading cause of death since 1980. Infant mortality rates (IMRs) have also declined rapidly for respiratory distress syndrome since 1989, concurrent with the widespread availability of new treatments for this condition.


2021 ◽  
Vol 111 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-126
Author(s):  
Qiang Xia ◽  
Ying Sun ◽  
Chitra Ramaswamy ◽  
Lucia V. Torian ◽  
Wenhui Li

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and local health jurisdictions have been using HIV surveillance data to monitor mortality among people with HIV in the United States with age-standardized death rates, but the principles of age standardization have not been consistently followed, making age standardization lose its purpose—comparison over time, across jurisdictions, or by other characteristics. We review the current practices of age standardization in calculating death rates among people with HIV in the United States, discuss the principles of age standardization including those specific to the HIV population whose age distribution differs markedly from that of the US 2000 standard population, make recommendations, and report age-standardized death rates among people with HIV in New York City. When we restricted the analysis population to adults aged between 18 and 84 years in New York City, the age-standardized death rate among people with HIV decreased from 20.8 per 1000 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 19.2, 22.3) in 2013 to 17.1 per 1000 (95% CI = 15.8, 18.3) in 2017, and the age-standardized death rate among people without HIV decreased from 5.8 per 1000 in 2013 to 5.5 per 1000 in 2017.


1937 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 489-511
Author(s):  
W. J. Martin

The trend of fertility in Wales and the Southern and Midland counties of England was demonstrated and discussed in the previous sections of this enquiry.1 The corresponding vital statistics for Northern England are given in the present concluding section and, in addition, the results that have been found are briefly reviewed for the country as a whole. For the Northern counties the same methods have been employed as in the two previous sections. Briefly, the actual birth-rate has been measured by the number of births per 1000 married women aged 15–45, while as a rough assessment of how far a changing age distribution of married women has affected its level, a potential birth-rate and fertility ratio have also been calculated. The potential birth-rate gives the number of births per 1000 married women aged 15–45 obtained by applying Tait's fertility ratios 48.75, 41.25, 30 and 15 to the number of married women in the age groups 15–19, 20–24, 25–35 and 35–45 respectively. The fertility ratio is the ratio of the actual to the potential birth-rate.


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