A simulation model for diarrhoea and other common recurrent infections: a tool for exploring epidemiological methods

SUMMARYThe measurement and analysis of common recurrent conditions such as diarrhoea, respiratory infections or fever pose methodological challenges with regard to case definition, disease surveillance and statistical analysis. In this paper we describe a flexible and robust model that can generate simulated longitudinal datasets for a range of recurrent infections, reflecting the stochastic processes that underpin the data collected in the field. It can be used to evaluate and compare alternative disease definitions, surveillance strategies and statistical methods under ‘controlled conditions’. Parameters in the model include: characterizing the distributions of the individual disease incidence and the duration of disease episodes; allowing the average disease duration to depend on an individual's number of episodes (simulating a correlation between incidence and duration); making the individual risk of disease depend on the occurrence of previous episodes (simulating autocorrelation of successive episodes); finally, incorporating seasonal variation of disease.

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The importance and significance of gene polymorphisms in preeclampsia

HEALTH OF WOMAN ◽

10.15574/hw.2016.114.45 ◽

2016 ◽

pp. 45-49

Author(s):

P.N. Veropotvelyan ◽

◽

I.S. Tsehmistrenko ◽

N.P. Veropotvelyan ◽

N.S. Rusak ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Oxidative Stress ◽

Systematic Review ◽

Early Diagnosis ◽

Gene Polymorphisms ◽

Individual Risk ◽

Extended Study ◽

Stress Genes ◽

Detoxification System ◽

The Individual ◽

The Relationship

Was to conduct a systematic review of data on the relationship between polymorphisms genes of detoxification system and development of preeclampsia (РЕ). Рresents the main genes of detoxification system (GSTPI, GSTМI, GSTТI, GРХI, ЕРНХI, SOD-2, SOD-3, CYPIAL, MTHЕR, MTR) and their functions. Of interest is the possibility of calculating the individual risk of PE based on the results about the presence of a combination of different polymorphisms in the genotype of the female. Question about early diagnosis of РЕ remains controversial and not fully understood. It is necessary to conduct further in-depth, extended study of this problem. Key words: preeclampsia, oxidative stress, genes of the detoxification system.

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Differentiation of endemic areas by incidence rates of tick-borne infectious diseases as the basis for choosing prevention strategy and tactics

ЗДОРОВЬЕ НАСЕЛЕНИЯ И СРЕДА ОБИТАНИЯ - ЗНиСО / PUBLIC HEALTH AND LIFE ENVIRONMENT ◽

10.35627/2219-5238/2019-321-12-56-61 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 56-61

Author(s):

N.V. Rudakov ◽

N.A. Penyevskaya ◽

D.A. Saveliev ◽

S.A. Rudakova ◽

C.V. Shtrek ◽

...

Keyword(s):

High Risk ◽

Infectious Diseases ◽

Population Based ◽

Preventive Therapy ◽

Incidence Rates ◽

Prevention Strategy ◽

Individual Risk ◽

The Individual ◽

Integral Assessment ◽

Very High

Research objective. Differentiation of natural focal areas of Western Siberia by integral incidence rates of tick-borne infectious diseases for determination of the strategy and tactics of their comprehensive prevention. Materials and methods. A retrospective analysis of official statistics for the period 2002-2018 for eight sub-federal units in the context of administrative territories was carried out. The criteria of differentiation were determined by means of three evaluation scales, including long-term mean rates of tick-borne encephalitis, tick-borne borreliosis, and Siberian tick-borne typhus. As a scale gradation tool, we used the number of sample elements between the confidence boundaries of the median. The integral assessment was carried out by the sum of points corresponding to the incidence rates for each of the analyzed infections. Results. The areas of low, medium, above average, high and very high risk of tick-borne infectious diseases were determined. Recommendations on the choice of prevention strategy and tactics were given. In areas of very high and high incidence rates, a combination of population-based and individual prevention strategies is preferable while in other areas a combination of high-risk and individual strategies is recommended. Discussion. Epidemiologic zoning should be the basis of a risk-based approach to determining optimal volumes and directions of preventive measures against natural focal infections. It is necessary to improve the means and methods of determining the individual risk of getting infected and developing tick-borne infectious diseases in case of bites, in view of mixed infection of vectors, as well as methods of post-exposure disease prevention (preventive therapy).

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A New Medical Record Proposal to the Prognostic Risk Assessment for MRONJ in Oncologic Patients: “Sapienza Head and Neck Unit” Proposal

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph18041851 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (4) ◽

pp. 1851

Author(s):

Edoardo Brauner ◽

Silvia Mezi ◽

Alessandro Ciolfi ◽

Chiara Ciolfi ◽

Resi Pucci ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Multidisciplinary Approach ◽

Bone Cancer ◽

Osteonecrosis Of The Jaw ◽

Individual Risk ◽

Medical Report ◽

Oncologic Patients ◽

Antiangiogenic Drugs ◽

Dental Screening ◽

The Individual

Medication-related osteonecrosis of the jaw (MRONJ) is an adverse event associated with antiresorptive and antiangiogenic drugs. The use of these drugs in the treatment of cancer patients with bone metastasis is necessary and standardized in the literature. A multidisciplinary approach for the patient’s management is strongly recommended. Therefore, it should be necessary to integrate the path of these subjects with a dedicated dental screening in order to first assess the individual risk of developing a MRONJ, and then to plan dental treatments and oral hygiene sessions, and finally to schedule a follow-up to intercept and treat early osteonecrosis. The aim of this manuscript is to propose a new simple medical report to evaluate patients affected by metastatic bone cancer in order to reduce the risk of developing MRONJ.

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Exposure to paternal tobacco smoking increased child hospitalization for lower respiratory infections but not for other diseases in Vietnam

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/srep45481 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Reiko Miyahara ◽

Kensuke Takahashi ◽

Nguyen Thi Hien Anh ◽

Vu Dinh Thiem ◽

Motoi Suzuki ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factor ◽

Tobacco Smoking ◽

Respiratory Infections ◽

Disease Incidence ◽

Population Attributable Fraction ◽

Birth Cohort Study ◽

Effective Interventions ◽

Paternal Smoking ◽

Observation Period

Abstract Exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) is an important modifiable risk factor for child hospitalization, although its contribution is not well documented in countries where ETS due to maternal tobacco smoking is negligible. We conducted a birth cohort study of 1999 neonates between May 2009 and May 2010 in Nha Trang, Vietnam, to evaluate paternal tobacco smoking as a risk factor for infectious and non-infectious diseases. Hospitalizations during a 24-month observation period were identified using hospital records. The effect of paternal exposure during pregnancy and infancy on infectious disease incidence was evaluated using Poisson regression models. In total, 35.6% of 1624 children who attended follow-up visits required at least one hospitalization by 2 years of age, and the most common reason for hospitalization was lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI). Paternal tobacco smoking independently increased the risk of LRTI 1.76-fold (95% CI: 1.24–2.51) after adjusting for possible confounders but was not associated with any other cause of hospitalization. The population attributable fraction indicated that effective interventions to prevent paternal smoking in the presence of children would reduce LRTI-related hospitalizations by 14.8% in this epidemiological setting.

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Prediction of pre-eclampsia

Obstetric Medicine ◽

10.1177/1753495x20984015 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1753495X2098401

Author(s):

Konstantinos Giannakou

Keyword(s):

Early Recognition ◽

Routine Care ◽

Current Evidence ◽

Individual Risk ◽

Negative Consequences ◽

Predictive Tool ◽

Mortality And Morbidity ◽

Maternal Mortality And Morbidity ◽

Conducting Research ◽

The Individual

Pre-eclampsia is a leading cause of neonatal and maternal mortality and morbidity that complicates approximately 2–8% of all pregnancies worldwide. The precise cause of pre-eclampsia is not completely understood, with several environmental, genetic, and maternal factors involved in its pathogenesis and pathophysiology. An accurate predictor of pre-eclampsia will facilitate early recognition, close surveillance according to the individual risk and early intervention, and reduce the negative consequences of the disorder. Current evidence shows that no single test predicts pre-eclampsia with sufficient accuracy to be clinically useful. A combination of markers into multiparametric models may provide a more useful and feasible predictive tool for pre-eclampsia screening in the routine care setting than a test of either component alone. This review presents a summary of the current advances on prediction of pre-eclampsia, highlighting their performance and applicability. Key priorities when conducting research on predicting pre-eclampsia are also analyzed.

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Frequency distribution of GSTM1 and GSTT1 null allele in Pakistani population and risk of disease incidence

Environmental Toxicology and Pharmacology ◽

10.1016/j.etap.2010.04.002 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 30 (1) ◽

pp. 76-79 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

Rehan Sadiq Shaikh ◽

Muhammad Amir ◽

Ahmed Ijaz Masood ◽

Asma Sohail ◽

Habib-ur-Rehman Athar ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Frequency Distribution ◽

Null Allele ◽

Disease Incidence ◽

Pakistani Population ◽

Risk Of Disease

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Financial and Labor Benefits of the Individual TB Risk Assessment Model for Annual TB Screening

Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology ◽

10.1017/ice.2020.787 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 41 (S1) ◽

pp. s234-s234

Author(s):

Kristin Sims ◽

Roger Stienecker

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Health Care ◽

Assessment Model ◽

Health Care Personnel ◽

Individual Risk ◽

Tuberculosis Screening ◽

Hospital System ◽

National Tuberculosis ◽

The Individual ◽

The Cost

Background: Since 1991, US tuberculosis (TB) rates have declined, including among health care personnel (HCP). Non–US born persons accounted for approximately two-thirds of cases. Serial TB testing has limitations in populations at low risk; it is expensive and labor intensive. Method: We moved a large hospital system from facility-level risk stratification to an individual risk model to guide TB screening based on Tuberculosis Screening, Testing, and Treatment of US Health Care Personnel: Recommendations from the National Tuberculosis Controllers Association and CDC, 2019. This process included individual TB risk assessment, symptom evaluation, TB testing for M. tuberculosis infection (by either IGRA or TST) for HCP without documented evidence of prior LTBI or TB disease, with an additional workup for TB disease for HCP with positive test results or symptoms compatible with TB disease. In addition, employees with specific job codes deemed high risk were required to undergo TB screening. Result: In 2018, this hospital system of ~10,000 employees screened 7,556 HCP for TB at a cost of $348,625. In 2019, the cost of the T Spot test increased from $45 to $100 and the cost of screening 5,754 HCP through October 31, 2019, was $543,057. In 2020, it is anticipated that 755 HCP will be screened, saving the hospital an estimated minimum of $467,557. The labor burden associated with employee health personnel will fall from ~629.66 hours to 62.91 hours. The labor burden associated with pulling HCPs from the bedside to be screened will be reduced from 629.66 hours to 62.91 hours as well. Conclusion: Adoption of the individual risk assessment model for TB screening based on Tuberculosis Screening, Testing, and Treatment of US Health Care Personnel: Recommendations from the National Tuberculosis Controllers Association and CDC, 2019 will greatly reduce financial and labor burdens in healthcare settings when implemented.Funding: NoneDisclosures: None

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Clinical Score and Machine Learning-Based Model to Predict Diagnosis of Primary Aldosteronism in Arterial Hypertension

Hypertension ◽

10.1161/hypertensionaha.121.17444 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 78 (5) ◽

pp. 1595-1604

Author(s):

Fabrizio Buffolo ◽

Jacopo Burrello ◽

Alessio Burrello ◽

Daniel Heinrich ◽

Christian Adolf ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Arterial Hypertension ◽

Primary Aldosteronism ◽

Learning Algorithm ◽

Area Under The Curve ◽

Clinical Score ◽

Machine Learning Algorithms ◽

Supervised Machine Learning ◽

Individual Risk ◽

The Individual

Primary aldosteronism (PA) is the cause of arterial hypertension in 4% to 6% of patients, and 30% of patients with PA are affected by unilateral and surgically curable forms. Current guidelines recommend screening for PA ≈50% of patients with hypertension on the basis of individual factors, while some experts suggest screening all patients with hypertension. To define the risk of PA and tailor the diagnostic workup to the individual risk of each patient, we developed a conventional scoring system and supervised machine learning algorithms using a retrospective cohort of 4059 patients with hypertension. On the basis of 6 widely available parameters, we developed a numerical score and 308 machine learning-based models, selecting the one with the highest diagnostic performance. After validation, we obtained high predictive performance with our score (optimized sensitivity of 90.7% for PA and 92.3% for unilateral PA [UPA]). The machine learning-based model provided the highest performance, with an area under the curve of 0.834 for PA and 0.905 for diagnosis of UPA, with optimized sensitivity of 96.6% for PA, and 100.0% for UPA, at validation. The application of the predicting tools allowed the identification of a subgroup of patients with very low risk of PA (0.6% for both models) and null probability of having UPA. In conclusion, this score and the machine learning algorithm can accurately predict the individual pretest probability of PA in patients with hypertension and circumvent screening in up to 32.7% of patients using a machine learning-based model, without omitting patients with surgically curable UPA.

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Population Densities Allowed Around Dutch SEVESO Establishments

10.1115/imece2000-1033 ◽

2000 ◽

Author(s):

G. M. H. Laheij ◽

B. J. M. Ale ◽

J. G. Post

Keyword(s):

Population Density ◽

The Netherlands ◽

Individual Risk ◽

Population Densities ◽

Planning Policy ◽

Relative Contribution ◽

Societal Risk ◽

Dangerous Substances ◽

The Individual ◽

Uniform Population

Abstract In the Netherlands, the individual risk and societal risk are used in efforts to reduce the number of people exposed to the effect of an accident at an establishment with dangerous substances. To facilitate the societal risk planning policy an investigation was carried out for the Dutch SEVESO establishments to investigate the possibility of determining a generic uniform population density for the zone between the individual risk contours of 10−5 and 10−6 per year. The indicative limit for the societal risk at this density was not to be exceeded. Also there was to be enough space left for a significantly higher population density outside the individual risk contour of 10−6 per year. The RORISC methodology and the actual data for the 124 Dutch SEVESO establishments were used to determine the generic uniform population density. Based on the data available it can be concluded that the maximum allowed uniform population density in the zone between the individual risk contours of 10−5 and 10−6 per year is lower than one person per hectare. At this density there is no space left for a higher population density outside the individual risk contour of 10−6 per year. For uniform population densities the relative contribution to the societal risk has been found significant up to the individual risk contour of 10−7 per year.

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