Quantifying differences in the epidemic curves from three influenza surveillance systems: a nonlinear regression analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 143 (2) ◽  
pp. 427-439 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. G. THOMAS ◽  
J. M. McCAW ◽  
H. A. KELLY ◽  
K. A. GRANT ◽  
J. McVERNON
Keyword(s):  
Nonlinear Regression ◽  
Influenza Surveillance ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Disease Patterns ◽  
Department Of Health ◽  
Baseline Activity ◽  
Victorian Department

SUMMARYInfluenza surveillance enables systematic collection of data on spatially and demographically heterogeneous epidemics. Different data collection mechanisms record different aspects of the underlying epidemic with varying bias and noise. We aimed to characterize key differences in weekly incidence data from three influenza surveillance systems in Melbourne, Australia, from 2009 to 2012: laboratory-confirmed influenza notified to the Victorian Department of Health, influenza-like illness (ILI) reported through the Victorian General Practice Sentinel Surveillance scheme, and ILI cases presenting to the Melbourne Medical Deputising Service. Using nonlinear regression, we found that after adjusting for the effects of geographical region and age group, characteristics of the epidemic curve (including season length, timing of peak incidence and constant baseline activity) varied across the systems. We conclude that unmeasured factors endogenous to each surveillance system cause differences in the disease patterns recorded. Future research, particularly data synthesis studies, could benefit from accounting for these differences.

scholarly journals Viral Filtration Efficiency of Fabric Masks Compared with Surgical and N95 Masks

Pathogens ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 762
Author(s):  
Harriet Whiley ◽  
Thilini Piushani Keerthirathne ◽  
Muhammad Atif Nisar ◽  
Mae A. F. White ◽  
Kirstin E. Ross
Keyword(s):  
Filtration Efficiency ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Community Settings ◽  
Vacuum Cleaner ◽  
Department Of Health ◽  
Bacteriophage Ms2 ◽  
Surgical Masks ◽  
Victorian Department ◽  
Average Size ◽  
Model Virus

In response to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, current modeling supports the use of masks in community settings to reduce the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. However, concerns have been raised regarding the global shortage of medical grade masks and the limited evidence on the efficacy of fabric masks. This study used a standard mask testing method (ASTM F2101-14) and a model virus (bacteriophage MS2) to test the viral filtration efficiency (VFE) of fabric masks compared with commercially available disposable, surgical, and N95 masks. Five different types of fabric masks were purchased from the ecommerce website Etsy to represent a range of different fabric mask designs and materials currently available. One mask included a pocket for a filter; which was tested without a filter, with a dried baby wipe, and a section of a vacuum cleaner bag. A sixth fabric mask was also made according to the Victorian Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) guidelines (Australia). Three masks of each type were tested. This study found that all the fabric masks had a VFE of at least 50% when tested against aerosols with an average size of 6.0 µm (VFE(6.0 µm)). The minimum VFE of fabric masks improved (to 63%) when the larger aerosols were excluded to give and average aerosol size of 2.6 µm (VFE(2.6 µm)), which better represents inhaled aerosols that can reach the lower respiratory system. The best performing fabric masks were the cotton mask with a section of vacuum cleaner bag (VFE(6.0 µm) = 99.5%, VFE(2.6 µm) = 98.8%) or a dried baby wipe (VFE(6.0 µm) = 98.5%, VFE(2.6 µm) = 97.6%) in the pocket designed for a disposable filter, the mask made using the Victorian DHHS design (VFE(6.0 µm) = 98.6%, VFE(2.6 µm) =99.1%) and one made from a layer of 100% hemp, a layer of poly membrane, and a layer of cheesecloth (VFE(6.0 µm) = 93.6%, VFE(2.6 µm) = 89.0%). The VFE of two surgical masks (VFE(6.0 µm) = 99.9% and 99.6%, VFE(2.6 µm) = 99.5% and 98.5%) and a N95 masks (VFE(6.0 µm) = 99.9%, VFE(2.6 µm) = 99.3%) were comparable to their advertised bacterial filtration efficacy. This research supports the use of fabric masks in the community to prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2; however, future research is needed to explore the optimum design in ensuring proper fit. There is also a need for mass education campaigns to disseminate this information, along with guidelines around the proper usage and washing of fabric masks.

Derivation of New Surveillance System for Influenza-like Illness Using Claims Data 2014-2018 in Korea (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
HeeKyung Choi ◽  
Won Suk Choi ◽  
Euna Han
Keyword(s):  
Surveillance System ◽  
Claims Data ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
Influenza Surveillance ◽  
Utilization Review ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Influenza Like Illness ◽  
System P ◽  
National Patient ◽  
Antitussive Agents

BACKGROUND Influenza is an important public health concern. A national surveillance system that easily and rapidly detects influenza epidemics is lacking. OBJECTIVE We assumed that the rate of influenza-like illness (ILI) related-claims is similar to the current ILI surveillance system. METHODS We used the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service-National Patient Samples (HIRA-NPS), 2014-2018. We defined ILI-related claims as outpatient claims that contain both antipyretic and antitussive agents and calculated the weekly rate of ILI-related claims. We compared ILI-related claims and weekly ILI rates from clinical sentinel surveillance data. RESULTS We observed a strong correlation between the two surveillance systems each season. The absolute thresholds for the four-years were 84.64 and 86.19 cases claims per 1,000 claims for claims data and 12.27 and 16.82 per 1,000 patients for sentinel data (Figure 5). Both the claims and sentinel data surpassed the epidemic thresholds each season. The peak epidemic in the claims data was reached one to two weeks later than in the sentinel data. The epidemic patterns were more similar in the 2016-2017 and 2017-2018 seasons than the 2014-2015 and 2015-2016 seasons. CONCLUSIONS Based on hospital reports, ILI-related claims rates were similar to the ILI surveillance system. ILI claims data can be loaded to a drug utilization review system in Korea to make an influenza surveillance system.

scholarly journals Deaths From Plasmodium knowlesi Malaria: Case Series and Systematic Review

2019 ◽  
Vol 69 (10) ◽  
pp. 1703-1711 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giri S Rajahram ◽  
Daniel J Cooper ◽  
Timothy William ◽  
Matthew J Grigg ◽  
Nicholas M Anstey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Odds Ratio ◽  
Plasmodium Knowlesi ◽  
Case Series ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Mandatory Reporting ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Cardiovascular Comorbidities ◽  
Department Of Health ◽  
Appropriate Therapy

Abstract Background Plasmodium knowlesi causes severe and fatal malaria, and incidence in Southeast Asia is increasing. Factors associated with death are not clearly defined. Methods All malaria deaths in Sabah, Malaysia, from 2015 to 2017 were identified from mandatory reporting to the Sabah Department of Health. Case notes were reviewed, and a systematic review of these and all previously reported fatal P. knowlesi cases was conducted. Case fatality rates (CFRs) during 2010–2017 were calculated using incidence data from the Sabah Department of Health. Results Six malaria deaths occurred in Sabah during 2015–2017, all from P. knowlesi. Median age was 40 (range, 23–58) years; 4 cases (67%) were male. Three (50%) had significant cardiovascular comorbidities and 1 was pregnant. Delays in administering appropriate therapy contributed to 3 (50%) deaths. An additional 26 fatal cases were included in the systematic review. Among all 32 cases, 18 (56%) were male; median age was 56 (range, 23–84) years. Cardiovascular-metabolic disease, microscopic misdiagnosis, and delay in commencing intravenous treatment were identified in 11 of 32 (34%), 26 of 29 (90%), and 11 of 31 (36%) cases, respectively. The overall CFR during 2010–2017 was 2.5/1000: 6.0/1000 for women and 1.7/1000 for men (P = .01). Independent risk factors for death included female sex (odds ratio, 2.6; P = .04), and age ≥45 years (odds ratio, 4.7; P < .01). Conclusions Earlier presentation, more rapid diagnosis, and administration of intravenous artesunate may avoid fatal outcomes, particularly in females, older adults, and patients with cardiovascular comorbidities.

scholarly journals Computer Simulation of the King's Cross Fire: Effect of Radiative Heat Transfer on Fire Spread

1991 ◽  
Vol 205 (3) ◽  
pp. 201-208 ◽  
Author(s):  
W M G Malalasekera ◽  
F Lockwood
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Radiative Heat ◽  
Health And Safety ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Full Description ◽  
Department Of Health ◽  
Underground Fire ◽  
The Mathematical Model ◽  
Good Agreement

A mathematical model has been applied to simulate model experiments of the 1987 King's Cross underground fire by the Department of Health and Safety Executive. The predicted growth of the fire is compared with the experimental data and in particular the predicted and measured times to ‘flashover’ are compared. The comparisons show exceptional agreement which, in part, may be fortuitous due to the need to facilitate the prediction of the early stages of the growth with the aid of an experimentally estimated fire strength. The good agreement nonetheless is also due to the full description of the radiation transfer which is a feature of the mathematical model. It is concluded that the flashover phenomenon that occurred at King's Cross was thermal radiation driven and that future research should be devoted to modelling the details of fire spread across a combustible surface.

scholarly journals A comparison of coronavirus disease 2019 and seasonal influenza surveillance in five European countries: France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hélène Bricout ◽  
Rigoine de Fougerolles Thierry ◽  
Joan Puig-Barbera ◽  
Georges Kassianos ◽  
Philippe Vanhems ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Medical Information ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Data Communication ◽  
European Countries ◽  
World Health ◽  
Influenza Surveillance ◽  
Molecular Testing ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
The United Kingdom

Background: In response to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak that unfolded across Europe in 2020, the World Health Organisation called for repurposing existing influenza surveillance systems to monitor COVID-19. This analysis aimed to compare descriptively the extent to which influenza surveillance systems were adapted and enhanced, and how COVID-19 surveillance could ultimately benefit or disrupt routine influenza surveillance. Methods: We used a previously developed framework in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom to describe COVID-19 surveillance and its impact on influenza surveillance. The framework divides surveillance systems into 7 sub-systems and 20 comparable outcomes of interest, and uses 5 evaluation criteria based on WHO guidance. Information on influenza and COVID-19 surveillance systems were collected from publicly available resources shared by European and national public health agencies. Results: Overall, non-medically attended, virological, primary care and mortality surveillance were adapted in most countries to monitor COVID-19, whilst community, outbreak, and hospital surveillance were reinforced in all countries. Data granularity improved, with more detailed demographic and medical information recorded. A shift to systematic notification for cases and deaths enhanced both geographic and population representativeness whilst the sampling strategy benefited from the roll out of widespread molecular testing. Data communication was greatly enhanced, contributing to improved public awareness. Conclusions: Well-established influenza surveillance systems are a key component of pandemic preparedness and their upgrade allowed European countries to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, uncertainties remain on how both influenza and COVID-19 surveillance can be jointly and durably implemented.

scholarly journals Researchable questions to support evidence-based mental health policy concerning adult mental illness

2002 ◽  
Vol 26 (10) ◽  
pp. 364-367 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graham Thornicroft ◽  
Jonathan Bindman ◽  
David Goldberg ◽  
Kevin Gournay ◽  
Peter Huxley
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Mental Health Policy ◽  
Health Department ◽  
Mental Health Research ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Future Research Agenda ◽  
Department Of Health ◽  
National Service Framework ◽  
Mental Health Department

Policy makers find much mental health research irrelevant to their concerns. What types of research would directly assist those who formulate policy? The two purposes of this paper are (i) to identify important gaps in completed research, particularly in relation to the National Service Framework (NSF) for Mental Health (Department of Health, 1999a) and the NHS Plan (NHS Confederation, 2001); and (ii) to translate these gaps into researchable questions that can contribute to a debate about the future research agenda for general adult mental health in England.

scholarly journals Characteristics of hospitalizations with influenza diagnosis, France, 2012-2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (Supplement_4) ◽  
Author(s):  
M Pivette ◽  
V de Lauzun ◽  
N Nicolay ◽  
A Scanff ◽  
B Hubert
Keyword(s):  
Length Of Stay ◽  
Diagnosis Related Groups ◽  
Laboratory Data ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
H3n2 Virus ◽  
Influenza Surveillance ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Hospital System ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Seasonal influenza surveillance in France is based on several data sources (ambulatory data, emergency department and intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, laboratory data, mortality). However, the data do not provide a complete measure of the impact of the epidemics on the hospital system. The objective of the study was to describe the characteristics of influenza hospitalizations from the French national hospital discharge database (PMSI) between 2012 and 2017 and to precise the burden of influenza by age group and by season. Methods All hospitalizations in metropolitan France with at least one ICD-10 code related to influenza (J09, J10, J11) as a principal, related or associated diagnosis between 1 July 2012 to 30 June 2017 were extracted from the PMSI. For each season, the total number of hospitalizations, admissions to ICU, incidence and lethality rates, lengths of stay and classification in diagnosis-related groups were described by age group. Results During the 5 seasons, 91 255 hospitalizations with an influenza-diagnosis were identified. The incidence varied significantly between seasons, from 12.7/100 000 in 2013-2014 to 45.9/100 000 in 2016-2017. A high number of cases was observed in elderlies in 2014-2015 and 2016-2017, marked by the circulation of A (H3N2) virus. The proportion of hospitalizations with an admission in ICU was 10%, and was higher in the 40-79 age group (19%). Lethality increased steadily with age, from 0.5% under 20 years to 10% in 80 years and older. Length of stay also increased with age. Significant regional disparities were observed, with higher incidence rates in South-Eastern France each season. Conclusions The analysis of influenza hospitalizations from the PMSI provides important elements on influenza burden, not available in the current surveillance systems. An annual analysis, stratified by age group, would provide an indicator of the impact of the epidemics on hospital system at the end of each influenza season. Key messages Important influenza incidence variations were observed between seasons by age groups. Severity and impact of influenza (mortality, ICU, length of stay) varied significantly by age group.

A rejoinder: the real story of the H&CS Enterprise Competency Standards

1993 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 31-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bob Burgell
Keyword(s):  
Child Protection ◽  
Community Services ◽  
The Real ◽  
Department Of Health ◽  
Skill Analysis ◽  
Victorian Department

The article ‘A Word Salad - Enterprise Based Competencies in Child Protection’, Children Australia 18 (2) 1993 by Dr. Lesley Cooper, examines the Victorian Department of Health and Community Services (H&CS) Skills Enhancement Project (SEP). H&CS plainly rejects the negative criticisms of the skill analysis work which the article espouses.

scholarly journals Statistical Methods for Predicting Malaria Incidences Using Data from Sudan

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamid H. Hussien ◽  
Fathy H. Eissa ◽  
Khidir E. Awadalla
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Malaria Incidence ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Transformation Method ◽  
Transformation Model ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Moving Average Model ◽  
Using Data

Malaria is the leading cause of illness and death in Sudan. The entire population is at risk of malaria epidemics with a very high burden on government and population. The usefulness of forecasting methods in predicting the number of future incidences is needed to motivate the development of a system that can predict future incidences. The objective of this paper is to develop applicable and understood time series models and to find out what method can provide better performance to predict future incidences level. We used monthly incidence data collected from five states in Sudan with unstable malaria transmission. We test four methods of the forecast: (1) autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA); (2) exponential smoothing; (3) transformation model; and (4) moving average. The result showed that transformation method performed significantly better than the other methods for Gadaref, Gazira, North Kordofan, and Northern, while the moving average model performed significantly better for Khartoum. Future research should combine a number of different and dissimilar methods of time series to improve forecast accuracy with the ultimate aim of developing a simple and useful model for producing reasonably reliable forecasts of the malaria incidence in the study area.

scholarly journals Point-of-Care Testing as an Influenza Surveillance Tool: Methodology and Lessons Learned from Implementation

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa H. Gren ◽  
Christina A. Porucznik ◽  
Elizabeth A. Joy ◽  
Joseph L. Lyon ◽  
Catherine J. Staes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Collection ◽  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
Point Of Care ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Research Network ◽  
Influenza Surveillance ◽  
Statistical Process ◽  
University Of Utah ◽  
Department Of Health ◽  
The University

Objectives. Disease surveillance combines data collection and analysis with dissemination of findings to decision makers. The timeliness of these activities affects the ability to implement preventive measures. Influenza surveillance has traditionally been hampered by delays in both data collection and dissemination. Methods. We used statistical process control (SPC) to evaluate the daily percentage of outpatient visits with a positive point-of-care (POC) influenza test in the University of Utah Primary Care Research Network. Results. Retrospectively, POC testing generated an alert in each of 4 seasons (2004–2008, median 16 days before epidemic onset), suggesting that email notification of clinicians would be 9 days earlier than surveillance alerts posted to the Utah Department of Health website. In the 2008-09 season, the algorithm generated a real-time alert 19 days before epidemic onset. Clinicians in 4 intervention clinics received email notification of the alert within 4 days. Compared with clinicians in 6 control clinics, intervention clinicians were 40% more likely to perform rapid testing () and twice as likely to vaccinate for seasonal influenza () after notification. Conclusions. Email notification of SPC-generated alerts provided significantly earlier notification of the epidemic onset than traditional surveillance. Clinician preventive behavior was not significantly different in intervention clinics.

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