scholarly journals Time valuation of historical outbreak attribution data

2015 ◽  
Vol 144 (2) ◽  
pp. 396-407 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. D. EBEL ◽  
M. S. WILLIAMS ◽  
N. J. GOLDEN ◽  
W. D. SCHLOSSER ◽  
C. TRAVIS
Keyword(s):  
Food Safety ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Strong Argument ◽  
Estimation Strategy ◽  
Human Illness ◽  
Illness Attribution ◽  
Food Commodities ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Food Commodity

SUMMARYHuman illness attribution is recognized as an important metric for prioritizing and informing food-safety decisions and for monitoring progress towards long-term food-safety goals. Inferences regarding the proportion of illnesses attributed to a specific commodity class are often based on analyses of datasets describing the number of outbreaks in a given year or combination of years. In many countries, the total number of pathogen-related outbreaks reported nationwide for an implicated food source is often fewer than 50 instances in a given year and the number of years for which data are available can be fewer than 10. Therefore, a high degree of uncertainty is associated with the estimated fraction of pathogen-related outbreaks attributed to a general food commodity. Although it is possible to make inferences using only data from the most recent year, this type of estimation strategy ignores the data collected in previous years. Thus, a strong argument exists for an estimator that could ‘borrow strength’ from data collected in the previous years by combining the current data with the data from previous years. While many estimators exist for combining multiple years of data, most either require more data than is currently available or lack an objective and biologically plausible theoretical basis. This study introduces an estimation strategy that progressively reduces the influence of data collected in past years in accordance with the degree of departure from a Poisson process. The methodology is applied to the estimation of the attribution fraction forSalmonellaandEscherichia coliO157:H7 for common food commodities and the estimates are compared against two alternative estimators.

Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders: Employment Issues in the United States

2011 ◽  
Vol 9 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 58-69
Author(s):  
Marlene Kim
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Asian Americans ◽  
The United States ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Pacific Islanders ◽  
Native Hawaiians ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
High Poverty ◽  
Unemployment Rates

Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders (AAPIs) in the United States face problems of discrimination, the glass ceiling, and very high long-term unemployment rates. As a diverse population, although some Asian Americans are more successful than average, others, like those from Southeast Asia and Native Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders (NHPIs), work in low-paying jobs and suffer from high poverty rates, high unemployment rates, and low earnings. Collecting more detailed and additional data from employers, oversampling AAPIs in current data sets, making administrative data available to researchers, providing more resources for research on AAPIs, and enforcing nondiscrimination laws and affirmative action mandates would assist this population.

Hate Crime and Place: The Spatial and Temporal Concentration of Bias-Motivated Crime in Washington, D.C.

2021 ◽  
pp. 088626052098781
Author(s):  
Marin R. Wenger ◽  
Brendan Lantz
Keyword(s):  
Hate Crime ◽  
Hate Crimes ◽  
Temporal Perspective ◽  
Spatial Stability ◽  
Units Of Analysis ◽  
Crime Types ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Block Groups ◽  
Street Segments

Prior research suggests that many crime types are spatially concentrated and stable over time. Hate crime, however, is a unique crime type that is etiologically distinct from others. As such, examination of hate crime from a spatial and temporal perspective offers an opportunity to understand hate crime and the spatial concentration of crime more generally. The current study examines the spatial stability of hate crimes reported to the police in Washington, D.C., from 2012 through 2018 using street segments, intersections, and block groups as units of analysis. Findings reveal that hate crime is spatially concentrated, with less than 4% of street segments and intersections experiencing hate crime over the study period. Results reveal a high degree of spatial stability, both year-to-year and over the long term even when restricting the analysis to units that experienced at least one hate crime.

scholarly journals Influence of the Share of Renewable Energy Sources on the Level of Energy Security in EECCA Countries

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 903 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivan Trifonov ◽  
Dmitry Trukhan ◽  
Yury Koshlich ◽  
Valeriy Prasolov ◽  
Beata Ślusarczyk
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Security ◽  
Structural Characteristics ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Energy Resource ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Structural Content ◽  
High Degree

In this study we aimed to determine the extent to which changes in the share of renewable energy sources, their structural complex, and the level of energy security in Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia (EECCA) countries in the medium- and long-term are interconnected. The study was performed through modeling and determination of the structural characteristics of energy security in the countries. The methodology of the approach to modeling was based on solving the problem of nonlinear optimization by selecting a certain scenario. For the study, the data of EECCA countries were used. The ability of EECCA countries to benefit from long-term indirect and induced advantages of the transformation period depends on the extent to which their domestic supply chains facilitate the deployment of energy transformation and induced economic activity. This study provides an opportunity to assess the degree of influence of renewable energy sources on the level of energy security of countries in the context of energy resource diversification. The high degree of influence of renewable energy sources on energy security in the EECCA countries has been proven in the implementation of the developed scenarios for its increase. Energy security is growing. At the same time, its level depends not only on an increase in the share of renewable sources but also on the structure of energy resources complex of countries, and the development of various renewable energy sources. Therefore, today the EECCA countries are forced not only to increase the share of renewable energy sources but also to attach strategic importance to the structural content of their energy complex.

Development of a Performance-Related Framework for Asphalt Mixture Design for the Illinois Tollway

2021 ◽  
pp. 036119812110148
Author(s):  
Behnam Jahangiri ◽  
Punyaslok Rath ◽  
Hamed Majidifard ◽  
William G. Buttlar
Keyword(s):  
Asphalt Mixture ◽  
Field Performance ◽  
Compact Tension ◽  
T Test ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Final Adjustment ◽  
Development And Validation ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Selection Of

Various agencies have begun to research and introduce performance-related specifications (PRS) for the design of modern asphalt paving mixtures. The focus of most recent studies has been directed toward simplified cracking test development and evaluation. In some cases, development and validation of PRS has been performed, building on these new tests, often by comparison of test values to accelerated pavement test studies and/or to limited field data. This study describes the findings of a comprehensive research project conducted at Illinois Tollway, leading to a PRS for the design of mainline and shoulder asphalt mixtures. A novel approach was developed, involving the systematic establishment of specification requirements based on: 1) selection of baseline values based on minimally acceptable field performance thresholds; 2) elevation of thresholds to account for differences between short-term lab aging and expected long-term field aging; 3) further elevation of thresholds to account for variability in lab testing, plus variability in the testing of field cores; and 4) final adjustment and rounding of thresholds based on a consensus process. After a thorough evaluation of different candidate cracking tests in the course of the project, the Disk-shaped Compact Tension—DC(T)—test was chosen to be retained in the Illinois Tollway PRS and to be presented in this study for the design of crack-resistant mixtures. The DC(T) test was selected because of its high degree of correlation with field results and its excellent repeatability. Tailored Hamburg rut depth and stripping inflection point thresholds were also established for mainline and shoulder mixes.

China’s evolving humanitarian diplomacy: Evidence from China’s disaster-related aid to Nepal

2021 ◽  
pp. 205789112110192
Author(s):  
Peng Lin
Keyword(s):  
Humanitarian Assistance ◽  
Underdeveloped Countries ◽  
The Past ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
High Degree ◽  
The Belt And Road ◽  
Post Disaster ◽  
Effective Channel ◽  
India And China

Engaging in disaster relief and, more recently, post-disaster reconstruction in developing countries with critical geoeconomic and geopolitical interests has become an increasingly regular and institutionalized component of China’s evolving humanitarian diplomacy over the past decade. Drawn upon novel evidence from China’s growing disaster-related humanitarian assistance to Nepal and unprecedented engagement in Nepal’s long-term post-earthquake rebuild since 2015, this article explores the dynamics behind China’s transforming humanitarian diplomacy. The findings of this article suggest that: 1) geopolitical and geoeconomic interests, represented by the Belt-and-Road Initiative, serve as a critical driver for the development of China’s bilateral partnership with other countries in the disaster sector; 2) long-term cooperation with underdeveloped countries like Nepal provides China, both government and non-state actors (NSAs), with an effective channel to engage with the international humanitarian community and to internalize humanitarian norms; 3) although humanitarian missions remain contingent and instrumental in China’s international relations, they are laying the foundations for a specialized humanitarian policy area with more relevant normative assets, more professional actors, and more sophisticated institutions; 4) NSAs, represented by private foundations and civil NGOs, have played active roles in the state-dominant cooperation in disaster management. This article also suggests that intensified geopolitical confrontations, such as military clashes between India and China along their disputed borders over the past year, would lead to a high degree of politicization of humanitarian missions and partnerships counter-conducive to humanitarian goals.

scholarly journals Microscale Heterogeneous Distribution and Speciation of Phosphorus in Soils Amended with Mineral Fertilizer and Cattle Manure Compost

Minerals ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 121
Author(s):  
Noriko Yamaguchi ◽  
Toshiaki Ohkura ◽  
Atsuko Hikono ◽  
Yohey Hashimoto ◽  
Aomi Suda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hot Spots ◽  
Mineral Fertilizer ◽  
Chemical Extraction ◽  
Heterogeneous Distribution ◽  
Edge Structure ◽  
Soil P ◽  
Macro Scale ◽  
Cattle Manure Compost ◽  
High Degree

Global concerns for the sustainability of agriculture have emphasized the need to reduce the use of mineral fertilizer. Although phosphorus (P) is accumulated in farmland soils due to the long-term application of fertilizer, most soil P is not readily available to plants. The chemical speciation of P in soils, which comprise heterogeneous microenvironments, cannot be evaluated with a high degree of specificity using only macroscopic analyses. In this study, we investigated the distribution and speciation of P accumulated in soils by using both macro- and microscopic techniques including chemical extraction, solution and solid-state 31P NMR, bulk- and micro- P K-edge X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES), and electron probe microanalysis (EPMA). Soil samples were collected from a field in which cabbage was cultivated under three amendment treatments: i) mineral fertilizer (NPK), ii) mineral fertilizer and compost (NPK + compost), and iii) mineral fertilizer plus compost but without nitrogen fertilizer (PK + compost). Macro-scale analyses suggested that accumulated P was predominantly inorganic P and associated with Al-bearing minerals. The repeated application of compost to the soils increased the proportion of P associated with Ca which accounted for 17% in the NPK + compost plot and 40% in the PK + compost plot. At the microscale, hot spots of P were heterogeneously distributed, and P was associated with Fe and Ca in hot spots of the NPK + compost (pH 6) and PK + compost (pH 7) treated samples, respectively. Our results indicate that application of compost contributed to creating diverse microenvironments hosting P in these soils.

When Vacant Lots Become Urban Gardens: Characterizing the Perceived and Actual Food Safety Concerns of Urban Agriculture in Ohio

2015 ◽  
Vol 78 (11) ◽  
pp. 2070-2080 ◽  
Author(s):  
MICHELLE L. KAISER ◽  
MICHELE L. WILLIAMS ◽  
NICHOLAS BASTA ◽  
MICHELLE HAND ◽  
SARAH HUBER
Keyword(s):  
Food Safety ◽  
Soil Quality ◽  
Urban Agriculture ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Urban Soils ◽  
Fresh Produce ◽  
Urban Gardens ◽  
Soil Contaminants ◽  
Improve Access

This study was intended to characterize the perceived risks of urban agriculture by residents of four low-income neighborhoods in which the potential exists for further urban agriculture development and to provide data to support whether any chemical hazards and foodborne pathogens as potential food safety hazards were present. Sixty-seven residents participated in focus groups related to environmental health, food security, and urban gardening. In addition, soils from six locations were tested. Residents expressed interest in the development of urban gardens to improve access to healthy, fresh produce, but they had concerns about soil quality. Soils were contaminated with lead (Pb), zinc, cadmium (Cd), and copper, but not arsenic or chromium. Results from our study suggest paint was the main source of soil contamination. Detectable polyaromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) levels in urban soils were well below levels of concern. These urban soils will require further management to reduce Pb and possibly Cd bioavailability to decrease the potential for uptake into food crops. Although the number of locations in this study is limited, results suggest lower levels of soil contaminants at well-established gardens. Soil tillage associated with long-term gardening could have diluted the soil metal contaminants by mixing the contaminants with clean soil. Also, lower PAH levels in long-term gardening could be due to enhanced microbial activity and PAH degradation, dilution, or both due to mixing, similar to metals. No foodborne pathogen targets were detected by PCR from any of the soils. Residents expressed the need for clearness regarding soil quality and gardening practices in their neighborhoods to consume food grown in these urban areas. Results from this study suggest long-term gardening has the potential to reduce soil contaminants and their potential threat to food quality and human health and to improve access to fresh produce in low-income urban communities.

scholarly journals Long Term Real-World Outcomes of Trifluridine/Tipiracil in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer—A Single UK Centre Experience

2021 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 2260-2269
Author(s):  
Daniel Tong ◽  
Lei Wang ◽  
Jeewaka Mendis ◽  
Sharadah Essapen
Keyword(s):  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
Metastatic Colorectal Cancer ◽  
Real World ◽  
Systemic Treatment ◽  
Progression Free Survival ◽  
Median Number ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Real World Data

In the UK, Trifluridine-tipiracil (Lonsurf) is used to treat metastatic colorectal cancer in the third-line setting, after prior exposure to fluoropyrimidine-based regimes. Current data on the real-world use of Lonsurf lack long-term follow-up data. A retrospective evaluation of patients receiving Lonsurf at our Cancer Centre in 2016–2017 was performed, all with a minimum of two-year follow-up. Fifty-six patients were included in the review. The median number of cycles of Lonsurf administered was 3. Median follow-up was 6.0 months, with all patients deceased at the time of analysis. Median progression-free survival (PFS) was 3.2 months, and overall survival (OS) was 5.8 months. The median interval from Lonsurf discontinuation to death was two months, but seven patients received further systemic treatment and median OS gained was 12 months. Lonsurf offered a slightly better PFS but inferior OS to that of the RECOURSE trial, with PFS similar to real-world data previously presented. Interestingly, 12.5% had a PFS > 9 months, and this cohort had primarily left-sided and RAS wild-type disease. A subset received further systemic treatment on Lonsurf discontinuation with good additional OS benefit. Lonsurf may alter the course of disease for a subset of patients, and further treatment on progression can be considered in carefully selected patients.

Pierwotna małopłytkowość immunologiczna u dzieci

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Dusza ◽  
Michał Matysiak
Keyword(s):  
Immune Thrombocytopenia ◽  
Clinical Symptoms ◽  
Pediatric Population ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Current Investigation ◽  
Surgical Interventions ◽  
Hematological Disorders ◽  
Primary Immune Thrombocytopenia

In this article we present current investigation on primary immune thrombocytopenia in children. There are described pathomorphology, clinical symptoms, diagnosis and treatment. We also present current data from literature about genetic tests and latest data on treating options in children. Primary immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) is one of the most frequent hematological disorders in pediatric population. Although the majority of children have a self-limited and short duration of the disease. However, approximately 20-30% of those patients can develop chronic ITP, which can cause significant complications and higher mortality and reduced quality of life. Especially regarding to long-term immunosupression or surgical interventions, such like splenectomy and restrictions on daily activities to avoid trauma. Over the past decades a lot of informations has been reported about pathogenic features of ITP. Nowdays, we know that it is not only caused by increased platet destruction and decreased platet production, but also complex, multifactorial immune dysregulation, like loss of immune tolerance and generation of platelet autoantibodies. In this article we present current investigation on ITP including clinical symptoms, diagnosis, pathomorphology and latests options on treatment in children. We also present current data about genetic biomarker, such as Vanin-1 (VNN-1) which has been suggested as one of predictors of chronic disease and potentially can offer early prognosis estimation.

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