scholarly journals Method-Specific Suicide Rates and Accessibility of Means

Crisis ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chien-Yu Lin ◽  
Chia-Yueh Hsu ◽  
Ying-Yeh Chen ◽  
Shu-Sen Chang ◽  
David Gunnell
Keyword(s):  
Credible Interval ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Easy Access ◽  
Charcoal Burning ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Suicide Rates ◽  
Single Person ◽  
Access To Water ◽  
Adjusted Rate ◽  
Standardized Mortality Ratios

Abstract. Background: Few studies have investigated whether means accessibility is related to the spatial distribution of suicide. Aims: To examine the hypothesis that indicators of the accessibility to specific suicide methods were associated with method-specific suicide rates in Taipei City, Taiwan. Method: Smoothed standardized mortality ratios for method-specific suicide rates across 432 neighborhoods and their associations with means accessibility indicators were estimated using Bayesian hierarchical models. Results: The proportion of single-person households, indicating the ease of burning charcoal in the home, was associated with charcoal-burning suicide rates (adjusted rate ratio [aRR] > 1.13, 95% credible interval [CrI] > 1.03–1.25). The proportion of households living on the sixth floor or above, indicating easy access to high places, was associated with jumping suicide rates (aRR > 1.16, 95% CrI, 1.04–1.29). Neighborhoods’ adjacency to rivers, indicating easy access to water, showed no statistical evidence of an association with drowning suicide rates (aRR > 1.27, 95% CrI > 0.92–1.69). Hanging and overall suicide rates showed no associations with any of these three accessibility indicators. Limitations: This is an ecological study; associations between means accessibility and suicide cannot be directly inferred as causal. Conclusion: The findings have implications for identifying high-risk groups for charcoal-burning suicide (e.g., vulnerable individuals living alone) and preventing jumping suicides by increasing the safety of high buildings.

scholarly journals A hierarchical model to estimate the abundance and biomass of salmonids by using removal sampling and biometric data from multiple locations

2010 ◽  
Vol 67 (12) ◽  
pp. 2032-2044 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Ruiz ◽  
Christophe Laplanche
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Variability ◽  
Hierarchical Model ◽  
Salmo Trutta ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Fish Length ◽  
Biometric Data ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Fish Model ◽  
Brown Trout Salmo Trutta ◽  
Removal Sampling

We present a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the abundance and the biomass of brown trout ( Salmo trutta fario ) by using removal sampling and biometric data collected at several stream sections. The model accounts for (i) variability of the abundance with fish length (as a distribution mixture), (ii) spatial variability of the abundance, (iii) variability of the catchability with fish length (as a logit regression model), (iv) spatial variability of the catchability, and (v) residual variability of the catchability with fish. Model measured variables are the areas of the stream sections as well as the length and the weight of the caught fish. We first test the model by using a simulated dataset before using a 3-location, 2-removal sampling dataset collected in the field. Fifteen model alternatives are compared with an index of complexity and fit by using the field dataset. The selected model accounts for variability of the abundance with fish length and stream section and variability of the catchability with fish length. By using the selected model, 95% credible interval estimates of the abundances at the three stream sections are (0.46,0.59), (0.90,1.07), and (0.56,0.69) fish/m2. Respective biomass estimates are (9.68, 13.58), (17.22, 22.71), and (12.69, 17.31) g/m2.

scholarly journals Year-round monitoring reveals prevalence of fatal bird-window collisions at the Virginia Tech Corporate Research Center

PeerJ ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. e4562 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca M. Schneider ◽  
Christine M. Barton ◽  
Keith W. Zirkle ◽  
Caitlin F. Greene ◽  
Kara B. Newman
Keyword(s):  
Relative Risk ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Poisson Model ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
The United States ◽  
Virginia Tech ◽  
Research Center ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Significant Relationships ◽  
Ornamental Trees

Collisions with glass are a serious threat to avian life and are estimated to kill hundreds of millions of birds per year in the United States. We monitored 22 buildings at the Virginia Tech Corporate Research Center (VTCRC) in Blacksburg, Virginia, for collision fatalities from October 2013 through May 2015 and explored possible effects exerted by glass area and surrounding land cover on avian mortality. We documented 240 individuals representing 55 identifiable species that died due to collisions with windows at the VTCRC. The relative risk of fatal collisions at all buildings over the study period were estimated using a Bayesian hierarchical zero-inflated Poisson model adjusting for percentage of tree and lawn cover within 50 m of buildings, as well as for glass area. We found significant relationships between fatalities and surrounding lawn area (relative risk: 0.96, 95% credible interval: 0.93, 0.98) as well as glass area on buildings (RR: 1.30, 95% CI [1.05–1.65]). The model also found a moderately significant relationship between fatal collisions and the percent land cover of ornamental trees surrounding buildings (RR = 1.02, 95% CI [1.00–1.05]). Every building surveyed had at least one recorded collision death. Our findings indicate that birds collide with VTCRC windows during the summer breeding season in addition to spring and fall migration. The Ruby-throated Hummingbird (Archilochus colubris) was the most common window collision species and accounted for 10% of deaths. Though research has identified various correlates with fatal bird-window collisions, such studies rarely culminate in mitigation. We hope our study brings attention, and ultimately action, to address this significant threat to birds at the VTCRC and elsewhere.

scholarly journals Suicide after bereavement: an overlooked problem

2008 ◽  
Vol 38 (5) ◽  
pp. 673-676 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Ajdacic-Gross ◽  
M. Ring ◽  
E. Gadola ◽  
C. Lauber ◽  
M. Bopp ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Practitioners ◽  
Suicide Risk ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
First Year ◽  
Mortality Statistics ◽  
Clear Cut ◽  
Suicide Rates ◽  
Baseline Levels ◽  
Standardized Mortality Ratios

BackgroundTo examine the effect of time on suicide after bereavement among widowed persons.MethodThe data were extracted from Swiss mortality statistics for the period 1987–2005. The time between bereavement and subsequent death, specifically by suicide, was determined by linkage of individual records of married persons. The suicide rates and the standardized mortality ratios in the first week/month/year of widowhood were calculated based on person-year calculations.ResultsThe annualized suicide rates in widowed persons were highest in the first week after bereavement: 941 males and 207 females per 100 000. The corresponding standardized mortality ratios were approximately 34 and 19 respectively. In the first month(s) after bereavement, the rates and the ratios decreased, first rapidly, then gradually. Except in older widows, they did not reach the baseline levels during the first year after bereavement.ConclusionsThe suicide risk of widowed persons is increased in the days, weeks and months after bereavement. Widowed persons are a clear-cut risk group under the aegis of undertakers, priests and general practitioners.

Suicide Rates in Canada before and after Tightening Firearm Control Laws

1993 ◽  
Vol 72 (3) ◽  
pp. 787-790 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Lester ◽  
Antoon Leenaars
Keyword(s):  
Suicide Rate ◽  
Gun Control ◽  
Easy Access ◽  
Control Laws ◽  
Good Opportunity ◽  
Suicide Rates ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Firearm Suicide ◽  
Firearm Control ◽  
Methods Of Suicide

In Canada, Bill C-51 was implemented in 1977 to restrict the use of firearms, providing a good opportunity to study the effects of gun control laws in the use of firearms for suicide. The present study examined the use of guns for suicide during the period prior to the bill and during the period after the passing of Bill C-51 to assess the association of the bill with suicide rates. Analysis showed a significant decreasing trend after passage of Bill C-51 on the firearm suicide rate in Canada and the percentage of suicides using firearms. The analysis supports the position that restricting easy access to lethal methods of suicide may assist in reducing suicide.

Understanding the long-term concentration, flux, composition and processing of dissolved organic carbon in UK rivers

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fred Worrall ◽  
Nicholas Howden ◽  
Timothy Burt
Keyword(s):  
Organic Matter ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Dissolved Organic Matter ◽  
Dissolved Organic Carbon ◽  
Sewage Treatment ◽  
Resource Limitation ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Doc Flux ◽  
The Uk

<p>Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) represents an important component of the terrestrial and fluvial carbon cycle as it represents a flux from terrestrial carbon stores and while it transfers through the fluvial network it can be processed to release greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Furthermore, DOC is a major water resource limitation as the dissolved organic matter has to be removed prior to treatment. Therefore, we need to understand the concentration and fluxes of DOC and they change across a landscape between the terrestrial source and the tidal limit.</p><p>Our ability to understand the processing of terrestrial and fluvial carbon has been limited by the range of catchments that have been considered and the time scale over which they have been considered. Studies focused on similar catchment types and very little means of comparing between catchments. However, if we can access and understand large datasets we can find general principles which control DOC and the relative importance of these controls. In this study we use two datasets. The first, is a dataset sampled across the UK for major rivers (270 catchments) from 1974 and this dataset is ideal for understanding flux to the continental shelf and this dataset has over 50000 datapoints. Secondly, many of these sites are monitored for a rang e of other parameters that are related to the composition of the dissolved organic matter. The important covariates for DOM composition are BOD, which is a measure of DOM decomposition, and COD which is measure of the oxidation state of the DOM. All the study catchments could be characterised by a range of covariate information, eg. soil cover, land use, hydro-climatology. To make maximum use of this data the dataset was considered within a Bayesian hierarchical framework.</p><p>The concentrations of DOC from the UK rose for the 1974 on to the late 1990s before a decline to 2007-08. The decline was driven by changes in urban sources, particular by improvements in sewage treatment. The DOC flux from the UK has declined since a peak in 2000 and in 2017 was 767 ktonnes C/yr (95% credible interval 644 – 909 ktonnesC/yr). Modelling composition turnover gives the DOC flux from source as 3.5 Mtonnes C/yr with 2.6 Mtonnes C/yr lost to atmosphere (14 Mtonnes CO<sub>2eq</sub>/yr = 59 tonnes CO<sub>2eq</sub>/km2/yr).</p>

Comparative Suicide Rates in Different Types of Involuntary Confinement

1993 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 128-136 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joel Haycock
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
State Hospital ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Treatment Center ◽  
The Past ◽  
Suicide Rates ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Treatment Centre ◽  
Court Involved ◽  
Two Populations

In the past decade especially, a number of studies have appeared on suicide among court-involved persons, chiefly in jail and prison remand settings, and to a lesser degree among longer-term prisoners. Confinement is not everywhere equally suicidogenic, and the types of people who find themselves confined do not represent uniformly high risk groups. This article reports on rates of completed suicides over long periods of time in two very different US institutions operated by the Massachusetts Department of Correction: the Addiction Centre and its antecedent faculties (1886–1990); and the Defective Delinquent Department (1922–1971). For perspective, the paper compares suicide rates among its two populations to rates for other very distinctive institutions operated by the Massachusetts Department of Correction, the Bridgewater State Hospital and the Massachusetts Treatment Centre for Sexually Dangerous Persons. The results are remarkable for the rarity of suicide in three distinct populations—the Addiction Center, the Defective Delinquent Department and the Treatment Center for Sexually Dangerous Persons—but considerably higher rates in the State Hospital, a population often dismissed as “criminally insane.” The possible significance of these results for debates about “importation” versus “deprivation” explanations of custodial suicide is discussed.

scholarly journals Analyzing Postdisaster Surveillance Data: The Effect of the Statistical Method

2008 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 119-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles DiMaggio ◽  
Sandro Galea ◽  
David Abramson
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Hierarchical Modeling ◽  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Administrative Databases ◽  
Point Estimate ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling ◽  
Measures Of Association ◽  
Bayesian Approaches ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical

ABSTRACTData from existing administrative databases and ongoing surveys or surveillance methods may prove indispensable after mass traumas as a way of providing information that may be useful to emergency planners and practitioners. The analytic approach, however, may affect exposure prevalence estimates and measures of association. We compare Bayesian hierarchical modeling methods to standard survey analytic techniques for survey data collected in the aftermath of a terrorist attack. Estimates for the prevalence of exposure to the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, varied by the method chosen. Bayesian hierarchical modeling returned the lowest estimate for exposure prevalence with a credible interval spanning nearly 3 times the range of the confidence intervals (CIs) associated with both unadjusted and survey procedures. Bayesian hierarchical modeling also returned a smaller point estimate for measures of association, although in this instance the credible interval was tighter than that obtained through survey procedures. Bayesian approaches allow a consideration of preexisting assumptions about survey data, and may offer potential advantages, particularly in the uncertain environment of postterrorism and disaster settings. Additional comparative analyses of existing data are necessary to guide our ability to use these techniques in future incidents. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2008;2:119–126)

scholarly journals Modelling the population dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes in humans during malaria infection

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pengxing Cao ◽  
Katharine A. Collins ◽  
Sophie Zaloumis ◽  
Thanaporn Wattanakul ◽  
Joel Tarning ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Plasmodium Falciparum ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Malaria Infection ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Reliable Prediction ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Kinetics Of

AbstractEvery year over two hundred million people are infected with the malaria parasite. Renewed efforts to eliminate malaria has highlighted the potential to interrupt transmission from humans to mosquitoes which is mediated through the gametocytes. Reliable prediction of transmission requires an improved understanding of in vivo kinetics of gametocytes. Here we study the population dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes in human hosts by establishing a framework which incorporates improved measurements of parasitaemia in humans, a novel mathematical model of gametocyte dynamics, and model validation using a Bayesian hierarchical inference method. We found that the novel mathematical model provides an excellent fit to the available clinical data from 17 volunteers infected with P. falciparum, and reliably predicts observed gametocyte levels. We estimated the P. falciparum’s sexual commitment rate and gametocyte sequestration time in humans to be 0.54% (95% credible interval: 0.30-1.00) per life cycle and 8.39 (6.54-10.59) days respectively. Furthermore, we used the data-calibrated model to predict the effects of those gametocyte dynamics parameters on human-to-mosquito transmissibility, providing a method to link within-human host kinetics of malaria infection to epidemiological-scale infection and transmission patterns.

scholarly journals Sex ratio at birth in Vietnam among six subnational regions during 1990–2050, estimation and probabilistic projection using a Bayesian hierarchical time series model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fengqing Chao ◽  
Christophe Z. Guilmoto ◽  
Hernando Ombao
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Sex Ratio ◽  
Local Maximum ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
River Delta ◽  
Red River ◽  
Sex Ratio At Birth ◽  
Red River Delta ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical

The sex ratio at birth (SRB, i.e., the ratio of male to female births) in Vietnam has been imbalanced since the 2000s. Previous studies have revealed a rapid increase in the SRB over the past 15 years and the presence of important variations across regions. More recent studies suggested that the nation’s SRB may have plateaued during the 2010s. Given the lack of exhaustive birth registration data in Vietnam, it is necessary to estimate and project levels and trends in the regional SRBs in Vietnam based on a reproducible statistical approach. We compiled an extensive database on regional Vietnam SRBs based on all publicly available surveys and censuses and used a Bayesian hierarchical time series mixture model to estimate and project SRB in Vietnam by region from 1980 to 2050. The Bayesian model incorporates the uncertainties from the observations and year-by-year natural fluctuation. It includes a binary parameter to detect the existence of sex ratio transitions among Vietnamese regions. Furthermore, we model the SRB imbalance using a trapezoid function to capture the increase, stagnation, and decrease of the sex ratio transition by Vietnamese regions. The model results show that four out of six Vietnamese regions, namely, Northern Midlands and Mountain Areas, Northern Central and Central Coastal Areas, Red River Delta, and South East, have existing sex imbalances at birth. The rise in SRB in the Red River Delta was the fastest, as it took only 12 years and was more pronounced, with the SRB reaching the local maximum of 1.146 with a 95% credible interval (1.129, 1.163) in 2013. The model projections suggest that the current decade will record a sustained decline in sex imbalances at birth, and the SRB should be back to the national SRB baseline level of 1.06 in all regions by the mid-2030s.

scholarly journals Prevalence and phylogenetic analysis of hepatitis E virus in pigs in Vietnam

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hu Suk Lee ◽  
Duy Tung Dao ◽  
Vuong Nghia Bui ◽  
Anh Ngoc Bui ◽  
Duy Thanh Le ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Phylogenetic Analysis ◽  
Hepatitis E Virus ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Hepatitis E ◽  
Public Health Perspective ◽  
Worldwide Distribution ◽  
Apparent Prevalence ◽  
Pooled Samples

Abstract Background: Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is one of the important zoonotic diseases with a worldwide distribution. The main objective of this study was to assess the sero-prevalence and phylogenetic analysis of HEV in Vietnam. Pig blood and fecal pooled samples were used to determine the prevalence of HEV. We evaluated the true prevalence (TP) of HEV from apparent prevalence (AP) by taking into account the sensitivity and specificity of diagnostic tests using a Bayesian approach. For phylogenetic analysis, the data compared with worldwide HEV reference strains illustrating all eight genotypes (G1-G8) which were identified in previous study.Results: A total of 475 sera and 250 fecal pooled samples were collected at slaughterhouses and pig farms from five provinces, in Viet Nam. Overall, the AP of HEV was 58.53% (95% CI: 53.95-62.70) while the TP was slightly higher (59.96%, 95% credible interval: 54.49-65.41). In terms of pooled samples, overall, the AP (13.38%, 95% credible interval: 9.89-17.30) of HEV was much higher than TP (6.80%, 95%CI: 4.01-10.66). One strain in Hanoi, two strains in Dak Lak, seven strains in An Giang, four strains in Son La and two strains in Nghe An were isolated. The phylogenetic tree demonstrated that 19 Vietnamese strains were clustered into HEV 3 and 4.Conclusions: This study provided evidence that HEV is circulating in domestic pigs in Vietnam. From a public health perspective, it is very important to raise public awareness for high-risk groups (e.g. slaughterhouse workers, pig traders, farmers and market sellers) who have more opportunities to come in contact with pig and contaminated meats.

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