scholarly journals Rapidly Increasing Chance of Record-Shattering Heat Extremes

Eos ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Allen
Keyword(s):  
Heat Waves ◽  
Heat Extremes ◽  
Near Future

A new study warns that we need to expect and prepare for unprecedented heat waves in the near future.

scholarly journals Climate Change and the Kidney

2019 ◽  
Vol 74 (Suppl. 3) ◽  
pp. 38-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard J. Johnson ◽  
Laura G. Sánchez-Lozada ◽  
Lee S. Newman ◽  
Miguel A. Lanaspa ◽  
Henry F. Diaz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Stress ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Kidney Diseases ◽  
Whole Body ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Adequate Hydration ◽  
Acute Kidney Disease ◽  
Heat Extremes ◽  
Tract Infections

The worldwide increase in temperature has resulted in a marked increase in heat waves (heat extremes) that carries a markedly increased risk for morbidity and mortality. The kidney has a unique role not only in protecting the host from heat and dehydration but also is an important site of heat-associated disease. Here we review the potential impact of global warming and heat extremes on kidney diseases. High temperatures can result in increased core temperatures, dehydration, and blood hyperosmolality. Heatstroke (both clinical and subclinical whole-body hyperthermia) may have a major role in causing both acute kidney disease, leading to increased risk of acute kidney injury from rhabdomyolysis, or heat-induced inflammatory injury to the kidney. Recurrent heat and dehydration can result in chronic kidney disease (CKD) in animals and theoretically plays a role in epidemics of CKD developing in hot regions of the world where workers are exposed to extreme heat. Heat stress and dehydration also has a role in kidney stone formation, and poor hydration habits may increase the risk for recurrent urinary tract infections. The resultant social and economic consequences include disability and loss of productivity and employment. Given the rise in world temperatures, there is a major need to better understand how heat stress can induce kidney disease, how best to provide adequate hydration, and ways to reduce the negative effects of chronic heat exposure.

scholarly journals Elevated CO2 maintains grassland net carbon uptake under a future heat and drought extreme

2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (22) ◽  
pp. 6224-6229 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacques Roy ◽  
Catherine Picon-Cochard ◽  
Angela Augusti ◽  
Marie-Lise Benot ◽  
Lionel Thiery ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Balance ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Carbon Uptake ◽  
Controlled Environment ◽  
Water Fluxes ◽  
Ecosystem Research ◽  
Plant Nitrogen ◽  
Ecosystem Carbon ◽  
Ecosystem Level ◽  
Near Future

Extreme climatic events (ECEs) such as droughts and heat waves are predicted to increase in intensity and frequency and impact the terrestrial carbon balance. However, we lack direct experimental evidence of how the net carbon uptake of ecosystems is affected by ECEs under future elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (eCO2). Taking advantage of an advanced controlled environment facility for ecosystem research (Ecotron), we simulated eCO2 and extreme cooccurring heat and drought events as projected for the 2050s and analyzed their effects on the ecosystem-level carbon and water fluxes in a C3 grassland. Our results indicate that eCO2 not only slows down the decline of ecosystem carbon uptake during the ECE but also enhances its recovery after the ECE, as mediated by increases of root growth and plant nitrogen uptake induced by the ECE. These findings indicate that, in the predicted near future climate, eCO2 could mitigate the effects of extreme droughts and heat waves on ecosystem net carbon uptake.

scholarly journals The effect of forced change and unforced variability in heat waves, temperature extremes, and associated population risk in a CO<sub>2</sub>-warmed world

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (15) ◽  
pp. 11889-11904
Author(s):  
Jangho Lee ◽  
Jeffrey C. Mast ◽  
Andrew E. Dessler
Keyword(s):  
Heat Waves ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
Heat Extremes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Population ◽  
Heat Events ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. This study investigates the impact of global warming on heat and humidity extremes by analyzing 6 h output from 28 members of the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble driven by forcing from a 1 % yr−1 CO2 increase. We find that unforced variability drives large changes in regional exposure to extremes in different ensemble members, and these variations are mostly associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. However, while the unforced variability in the climate can alter the occurrence of extremes regionally, variability within the ensemble decreases significantly as one looks at larger regions or at a global population perspective. This means that, for metrics of extreme heat and humidity analyzed here, forced variability in the climate is more important than the unforced variability at global scales. Lastly, we found that most heat wave metrics will increase significantly between 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C, and that low gross domestic product (GDP) regions show significantly higher risks of facing extreme heat events compared to high GDP regions. Considering the limited economic adaptability of the population to heat extremes, this reinforces the idea that the most severe impacts of climate change may fall mostly on those least capable of adapting.

Hottest drought temperature anomalies in sub-humid regions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sungmin Oh ◽  
Ana Bastos ◽  
Markus Reichstein ◽  
Wantong Li ◽  
Jasper Denissen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Evaporative Cooling ◽  
Net Radiation ◽  
Drought Management ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Heat Extremes ◽  
Underlying Mechanisms ◽  
Global Data

&lt;p&gt;Droughts cause serious environmental and societal impacts, often aggravated by simultaneously occurring heat waves. Climate model projections suggest that droughts and high temperatures will further intensify over the next century. Thus, understanding the underlying mechanisms responsible for drought-induced heat is crucial to inform drought management strategies and to improve prediction of dry-hot extremes, especially under a changing climate. Using observation-based, global data over 2001-2015, we show hottest temperature anomalies during droughts in sub-humid and tree-dominated regions. This is mainly driven by a drought-related net radiation surplus and further amplified by forests&amp;#8217; water saving strategies that result in diminished evaporative cooling. By contrast, in semi-arid and short-vegetation regions, drought-related temperature increases are smaller. The reduction of evaporative cooling is weak and net radiation increases only marginally due to higher albedo over drought-stressed vegetation. As a result, our findings show the relative roles of climate and vegetation in shaping drought-heat extremes across space and highlight the importance of considering all interacting factors in understanding concurrent drought-heat extremes.&lt;/p&gt;

On exposure of land area and population to heat waves and cold waves in a changing climate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Hampshire ◽  
Neven Fuckar ◽  
Clare Heaviside ◽  
Myles Allen
Keyword(s):  
Heat Waves ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Land Area ◽  
Cold Waves ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Thermal Climate ◽  
Heat Extremes ◽  
Projected Changes

&lt;p&gt;As climate changes &amp;#8211; potentially to a warmer state than any time during the evolution of humans &amp;#8211; heat extremes threatening human health, global ecosystem and socio-economic fabric of our society are occurring at increasing frequency and intensity in most parts of the world. This study examines changes in global land area and population exposed to both tails of temperature distribution in changing climate since heat and cold exposure is directly associated with a range of health impacts and affects thermal comfort and occupational capacity. We first utilise the latest ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis, ERA5, to examine changes over the satellite era (since 1979), and then we explore the equivalent changes in CMIP6 archive of historical runs and future projections. Besides daily maximum and minimum of dry-bulb surface air temperature (SAT), we also consider daily extremes of the universal thermal climate index (UTCI) that includes the influence of humidity, wind and radiation encapsulating the synergetic heat exchanges between the environment and the human body. Our analysis dissects changes in spatial and temporal exposure to both heat waves and cold waves and presents metrics contrasting changes in the opposite extremes of SAT and UTCI distributions. We assess the significance of the observed, modelled and projected changes and relate them to external drivers of climate change.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals The Effect of Forced and Unforced Variability on Heat Waves, Temperature Extremes, and Associated Population Risk in a CO<sub>2</sub>-Warmed World

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jangho Lee ◽  
Jeffery C. Mast ◽  
Andrew E. Dessler
Keyword(s):  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
Hourly Output ◽  
Heat Extremes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Population ◽  
Heat Events ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. This study investigates the impact of global warming on heat and humidity extremes by analyzing 6-hourly output from 28 members of the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble driven by forcing from a 1 %/year CO2 increase. We find that unforced variability drives large changes in regional exposure to extremes in different ensemble members, and these variations are mostly associated with ENSO variability. However, while the unforced variability of the climate can alter the occurrence of extremes regionally, variability within the ensemble decreases significantly as one looks at larger regions or at a global population perspective. This means that, for metrics of extreme heat and humidity analyzed here, forced variability of the climate is more important than the unforced variability at global scales. Lastly, we found that most heat wave metrics will increase significantly between 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C, and that low GDP regions shows significant higher risks of facing extreme heat events compared to high GDP regions. Considering the limited economic adaptability of population to heat extremes, this reinforces the idea that the most severe impacts of climate change may fall mostly on those least capable to adapt.

scholarly journals Cotton versus climate change: the case of Greek cotton production

2021 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 12547
Author(s):  
Vassilis ENGONOPOULOS ◽  
Varvara KOUNELI ◽  
Antonios MAVROEIDIS ◽  
Stella KARYDOGIANNI ◽  
Dimitrios BESLEMES ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
European Union ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Cotton Production ◽  
Agronomic Practices ◽  
Greenhouse Gases Emissions ◽  
Change Climate ◽  
Near Future

Through the last century, the increased greenhouse gases emissions altered the atmosphere’s composition and resulted to the phenomenon known as climate change. Climate change threatens the sustainability of the agricultural sector in the Mediterranean region. Droughts and extreme heat waves will probably become more frequent in the next few decades, thus maintaining sufficient yields in heat and drought susceptible major crops will be challenging. In Greece, cotton is of paramount economic importance. Besides the fact that it is regarded as the most significant fiber crop, Greece is the main cotton producer of the European Union. The aim of the present review was to examine the environmental factors that might affect cotton production in Greece and assess whether (or not) climate change has the potential to limit the productivity of this crop in the near future. According to the existing literature, cotton can adapt to the changing climate. Climate change-induced elevated CO2 levels and temperatures might even benefit cotton. The mitigation of the adverse effects of climate change is possible via the adaptation of site-specific agronomic practices. A simplistic framework, based on the literature and the goals of the European Union, that aims to the preservation of sufficient cotton yields in Greece is proposed in the present study.

scholarly journals Ambiguous agricultural drought: characterising soil moisture and vegetation droughts in Europe from earth observation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Theresa C. van Hateren ◽  
Marco Chini ◽  
Patrick Matgen ◽  
Adriaan J. Teuling
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Earth Observation ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Positive Anomaly ◽  
The Past ◽  
Near Future

Abstract. Climate change will likely lead to more regular and more severe drought events in the near future, with large impacts on agriculture, especially during long-lasting precipitation deficits or heat waves. This study focuses on agricultural droughts, which are generally defined as soil moisture deficits so severe, that vegetation is negatively impacted. However, during short soil moisture drought events, vegetation is not always negatively affected, and sometimes even thrives under these conditions. Because of this duality in agricultural drought impacts, the use of the term agricultural droughts is ambiguous. Here we show that, in major European droughts over the past two decades, clear asynchronies and discrepancies occur between soil moisture and vegetation anomalies. A clear delay is visible between the onset of soil moisture drought and vegetation drought, and correlation between the two types of drought generally peaks at the end of the growing season. This behaviour seems to be different in droughts at lower latitudes, where correlations peak earlier in the season, likely due to water limited conditions occurring much earlier there. Moreover, results indicate that in some cases, vegetation can show a positive anomaly, even when soil moisture anomalies are negative. As a result, the use of the term agricultural drought could lead to misclassification of drought events and false drought alarms depending on whether vegetation or soil moisture is used to quantify the drought. We argue that it is necessary to make a distinction between soil moisture drought and anomalies in vegetation.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Twenty-First Century Crop Yields in the U.S.

Climate ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 40 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lillian Petersen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Field Research ◽  
C3 Plants ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
Co2 Fertilization ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Concentrations ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Heat Extremes

Crop yields are strongly dependent on the average climate, extreme temperatures, and carbon dioxide concentrations, all of which are projected to increase in the coming century. In this study, a statistical model was created to predict US yields to 2100 for three crops using low and high-emissions future scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). The model is based on linear regressions between historical crop yields and daily weather observations since 1970 for every county in the US. Yields were found to be most strongly dependent on heat waves, summer average temperatures, and killing degree days; these relationships were hence used to predict future yields. The model shows that warming temperatures will significantly decrease corn and soybean yields, but will not have as strong of an influence on rice. Before accounting for CO2 fertilization, crops in the high-emissions scenario are predicted to produce 77%, 85%, and 96% of their expected yield without climate change for corn, soybeans, and rice, respectively. When a simple CO2 fertilization factor is included, corn, a C4 plant, increases slightly, while the yields of the C3 plants (soybeans and rice) are actually predicted to increase compared to today’s yields. This study exhibits the wide range of possible impacts of climate change on crop yields in the coming century, and emphasizes the need for field research on the combined effects of CO2 fertilization and heat extremes.

Risks and impacts of Heat Extremes under 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ global warming Over Mediterranean areas

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hao Yu ◽  
Xuefeng Cui
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Heat Exposure ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Maize Yield ◽  
Mediterranean Area ◽  
Eastern Area ◽  
Mediterranean Areas ◽  
Heat Extremes ◽  
Warming World

&lt;p&gt;Heat extremes have serious impact on human and agriculture over the world. As one of the prominent climate change &amp;#8220;hot spots&amp;#8221;, Mediterranean area, especially, its eastern area is expected to be more vulnerable to heat exposure, due to its population density and high rates of urbanization. The Paris Agreement aims to control global warming below +2&amp;#8451; comparing to pre-industrial level. It is interesting to study how heat extremes would change in Mediterranean area in a +1.5 &amp;#8451; and +2 &amp;#8451; global warming world and how they impact on human and agriculture.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Based on the high resolution climate scenario data from CORDEX-MED, we calculate several heat waves indices e.g. HWN (the total number of events), HWD (the length of the longest event), HWF (the total number of heat waves days), HWA (the hottest day (amplitude) of the hottest event) and EDD (extreme degree days, 30&amp;#8451; used to study impact on maize yield). We find that in most Mediterranean areas, both heat waves intensity and frequency have a robust increase in a +1.5 &amp;#8451; and +2 &amp;#8451; global warming world and cause more people exposure to heat waves in different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The most prominent areas are central Spain, Italy and Turkey. Also, more maize growing areas in Mediterranean will experience yield losses.&lt;/p&gt;

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