Path to net zero is critical to climate outcome

AbstractNet zero greenhouse gas targets have become a central element for climate action. However, most company and government pledges focus on the year that net zero is reached, with limited awareness of how critical the emissions pathway is in determining the climate outcome in both the near- and long-term. Here we show that different pathways of carbon dioxide and methane—the most prominent long-lived and short-lived greenhouse gases, respectively—can lead to nearly 0.4 °C of warming difference in midcentury and potential overshoot of the 2 °C target, even if they technically reach global net zero greenhouse gas emissions in 2050. While all paths achieve the Paris Agreement temperature goals in the long-term, there is still a 0.2 °C difference by end-of-century. We find that early action to reduce both emissions of carbon dioxide and methane simultaneously leads to the best climate outcomes over all timescales. We therefore recommend that companies and countries supplement net zero targets with a two-basket set of interim milestones to ensure that early action is taken for both carbon dioxide and methane. A one-basket approach, such as the standard format for Nationally Determined Contributions, is not sufficient because it can lead to a delay in methane mitigation.

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Net-zero greenhouse gas targets: pathway and when reached equally important

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1425 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Ilissa Ocko ◽

Tianyi Sun ◽

Steven Hamburg

Keyword(s):

Greenhouse Gas ◽

Global Climate ◽

Central Element ◽

Daily Basis ◽

Net Zero ◽

Target Date ◽

Future Warming ◽

Near Term ◽

Gas Targets

The concept of net zero emissions is now a central element of government and business commitments to addressing climate change, with more net zero policies and pledges being rolled out on an almost daily basis. However, of major concern is the limited awareness of how critical the emissions reduction pathway is in achieving desired climate outcomes. The focus of the climate policy community remains on the target date rather than the path to get there, and net zero "by 2050" is considered by many as the required policy characteristic in achieving temperature targets. Ultimately, the rate and magnitude of future warming relies on the amount, type, and timing of greenhouse gas emissions. Based on different combinations of these factors, it is both possible to succeed or fail in achieving temperature goals even if the global community reaches net zero by 2050. For similar reasons, it is also possible to miss the net zero by 2050 target and still succeed in meeting temperature goals. Therefore, it is important to clarify the role of the decarbonization pathway taken and offer recommendations to ensure that net zero pathways succeed in achieving global climate goals. In this analysis, we show how different net zero paths can lead to a range of temperature outcomes, and how we can strengthen the probability of meeting globally agreed upon climate goals by establishing complementary near-term targets. Key components of ensuring success in achieving temperature targets include incorporating a carbon dioxide budget and acting early to reduce methane emissions. Not only do these actions make achieving our goals more likely, but they also make the path forward more affordable and less dependent on technology not yet available at scale. Overall, improved understanding of the role of the path to net zero would create greater flexibility in effectively fulfilling commitments; open opportunities for trading across groups of greenhouse gases with no loss in climate benefits; and make it easier and cheaper to accomplish corporate and government goals.

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Towards high-quality net-zero targets

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10425 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Joeri Rogelj ◽

Andy Reisinger ◽

Annette Cowie ◽

Oliver Geden

Keyword(s):

Global Warming ◽

Greenhouse Gas ◽

Paris Agreement ◽

Emissions Reduction ◽

Special Report ◽

High Quality ◽

Net Zero ◽

The World ◽

Global Goal

With the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015 the world has decided that warming should be kept well below 2&#176;C while pursuing a limit of 1.5&#176;C above preindustrial levels. The Paris Agreement also sets a net emissions reduction goal: in the second half of the century, the balance of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals should become net zero. Since 2018, in response to the publication of the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5&#176;C, a flurry of net zero target announcements has ensued. Many countries, cities, regions, companies, or other organisations have come forward with targets to reach net zero, or become carbon or climate neutral. These labels describe a wide variety of targets, and rarely detailed. Lack of transparency renders it impossible to understand their ultimate contribution towards the global goal. Here we present a set of key criteria that high-quality net zero targets should address. These nine criteria cover emissions, removals, timing, fairness and a long-term vision. Unless net zero targets provide clarity on these nine criteria, we may not know until it is too late whether the collective promise of net zero targets is adequate to meet the global goal of the Paris Agreement.

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The case for long-term studies of greenhouse gas emissions

Environmental Conservation ◽

10.1017/s0376892999000247 ◽

1999 ◽

Vol 26 (3) ◽

pp. 166-168 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

TIM NEWCOMB

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Carbon Dioxide ◽

Greenhouse Gases ◽

Greenhouse Gas ◽

Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽

Ghg Emissions ◽

Industrialized Countries ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Long Term Studies

Many nations have recognized the need to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). The scientific assessments of climate change of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) support the need to reduce GHG emissions. The 1997 Kyoto Protocol to the 1992 Convention on Climate Change (UNTS 30822) has now been signed by more than 65 countries, although that Protocol has not yet entered into force. Some 14 of the industrialized countries listed in the Protocol face reductions in carbon dioxide emissions of more than 10% compared to projected 1997 carbon dioxide emissions (Najam & Page 1998).

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Institutional “Paris Agreement Compatible” Mitigation Scenarios Evaluated Against the Paris Agreement 1.5°C Goal

10.21203/rs.3.rs-599934/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Robert Brecha ◽

Gaurav Ganti ◽

Robin Lamboll ◽

Zebedee Nicholls ◽

Willion Hare ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Greenhouse Gas ◽

Paris Agreement ◽

Emissions Reduction ◽

Sources Of Information ◽

Private Companies ◽

International Agencies ◽

Development Plans ◽

Nationally Determined Contributions ◽

Short And Long Term

Abstract Since its adoption in 2015, governments, international agencies and private entities have increasingly recognized the implications of the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C long-term temperature goal (LTTG) for greenhouse gas emissions reduction planning in both the near- and long-term. Governments have submitted or are preparing updates of their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and are encouraged to submit long term low greenhouse gas development plans (Article 4 of the Agreement1), aimed at aligning short- and long-term strategies. The foundations on which country targets are based are guided, directly or indirectly, by a variety of sources of information judged to be authoritative, including scientific research institutes2, international agencies, or private companies. Importantly, such authoritative sources also affect planning and decision making by investors3 who aim to anticipate climate policies, and their decisions in turn can drive or hold back setting ambitious emissions-reduction targets.

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Achieving Net Zero Emissions Requires the Knowledge and Skills of the Oil and Gas Industry

Frontiers in Climate ◽

10.3389/fclim.2020.601778 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 2 ◽

Author(s):

Astley Hastings ◽

Pete Smith

Keyword(s):

Carbon Dioxide ◽

Energy Consumption ◽

Greenhouse Gas ◽

Carbon Capture ◽

Oil And Gas ◽

Ghg Emissions ◽

Anthropogenic Activity ◽

Low Carbon ◽

Net Zero ◽

Low Carbon Energy

The challenge facing society in the 21st century is to improve the quality of life for all citizens in an egalitarian way, providing sufficient food, shelter, energy, and other resources for a healthy meaningful life, while at the same time decarbonizing anthropogenic activity to provide a safe global climate, limiting temperature rise to well-below 2°C with the aim of limiting the temperature increase to no more than 1.5°C. To do this, the world must achieve net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050. Currently spreading wealth and health across the globe is dependent on growing the GDP of all countries, driven by the use of energy, which until recently has mostly been derived from fossil fuel. Recently, some countries have decoupled their GDP growth and greenhouse gas emissions through a rapid increase in low carbon energy generation. Considering the current level of energy consumption and projected implementation rates of low carbon energy production, a considerable quantity of fossil fuels is projected to be used to fill the gap, and to avoid emissions of GHG and close the gap between the 1.5°C carbon budget and projected emissions, carbon capture and storage (CCS) on an industrial scale will be required. In addition, the IPCC estimate that large-scale GHG removal from the atmosphere is required to limit warming to below 2°C using technologies such as Bioenergy CCS and direct carbon capture with CCS to achieve climate safety. In this paper, we estimate the amount of carbon dioxide that will have to be captured and stored, the storage volume, technology, and infrastructure required to achieve the energy consumption projections with net zero GHG emissions by 2050. We conclude that the oil and gas production industry alone has the geological and engineering expertise and global reach to find the geological storage structures and build the facilities, pipelines, and wells required. Here, we consider why and how oil and gas companies will need to morph from hydrocarbon production enterprises into net zero emission energy and carbon dioxide storage enterprises, decommission facilities only after CCS, and thus be economically sustainable businesses in the long term, by diversifying in and developing this new industry.

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AUSTRALIA’S FIRST GEOSEQUESTRATION DEMONSTRATION PROJECT—THE CO2CRC OTWAY BASIN PILOT PROJECT

The APPEA Journal ◽

10.1071/aj06017 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 47 (1) ◽

pp. 259 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

S. Sharma ◽

P. Cook ◽

T. Berly ◽

C. Anderson

Keyword(s):

Carbon Dioxide ◽

Natural Gas ◽

Greenhouse Gas ◽

Demonstration Project ◽

Public Understanding ◽

Assessment Process ◽

Research Centre ◽

Storage Site ◽

Cooperative Research

Geological sequestration is a promising technology for reducing atmospheric emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) with the potential to geologically store a significant proportion Australia of Australia’s stationary CO2 emissions. Stationary emissions comprise almost 50% (or about 280 million tonnes of CO2 per annum) of Australia’s total greenhouse gas emissions. Australia has abundant coal and gas resources and extensive geological storage opportunities; it is therefore well positioned to include geosequestration as an important part of its portfolio of greenhouse gas emission mitigation technologies.The Cooperative Research Centre for Greenhouse Gas Technologies is undertaking a geosequestration demonstration project in the Otway Basin of southwest Victoria, with injection of CO2 planned to commence around mid 2007. The project will extract natural gas containing a high percentage of CO2 from an existing gas well and inject it into a nearby depleted natural gas field for long-term storage. The suitability of the storage site has been assessed through a comprehensive risk assessment process. About 100,000 tonnes of CO2 is expected to be injected through a new injection well during a one- to two-year period. The injection of CO2 will be accompanied by a comprehensive monitoring and verification program to understand the behaviour of the CO2 in the subsurface and determine if the injected carbon dioxide has migrated out of the storage reservoir into overlying formations. This project will be the first storage project in Australia and the first in the world to test monitoring for storage in a depleted gas reservoir. Baseline data pertinent to geosequestration is already being acquired through the project and the research will enable a better understanding of long-term reactive transport and trapping mechanisms.This project is being authorised under the Petroleum Act 1998 (Victoria) and research, development and demonstration provisions administered by the Environment Protection Authority (EPA) Victoria in the absence of geosequestration- specific legislation. This highlights the need for such legislation to enable commercial-scale projects to proceed. Community acceptance is a key objective for the project and a consultation plan based on social research has been put in place to gauge public understanding and build support for the technology as a viable mitigation mechanism.

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GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION FROM COMBUSTION OF ASSOCIATED PETROLEUM GAS IN RUSSIA

Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya ◽

10.52002/0130-2906-2021-5-54-61 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 54-61

Author(s):

N. V. Popov ◽

◽

I. L. Govor ◽

M. L. Gitarskii ◽

◽

...

Keyword(s):

Carbon Dioxide ◽

Greenhouse Gases ◽

Greenhouse Gas ◽

Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽

Component Composition ◽

Emission Factors ◽

Gas Emission ◽

Associated Petroleum Gas ◽

Carbon Dioxide Co2

The average weighted long-term component composition of associated petroleum gas burned at the fields in Russia is obtained, where the volume fractions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) make up 0.8 and 66.4%, respectively. Based on it, the national emission factors of greenhouse gases from the flaring of associated petroleum gas are developed: the values are equal to 2.76 103 t CO2 and 0.0155 103 t CH4 per 1 106 m3 of the gas burnt. The calculations based on the emission factors led to the 37% increase in total equivalent emission of CO2 and CH4 as compared to the calculations based on the IPCC emission factors. The use of the national emission factors increases the reliability of the estimates of greenhouse gas emissions and the evaluation of their impact on climate.

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U.S. Public Support to Climate Change Initiatives?

Practice, Progress, and Proficiency in Sustainability - Handbook of Research on Green Economic Development Initiatives and Strategies ◽

10.4018/978-1-5225-0440-5.ch026 ◽

2016 ◽

pp. 605-624

Author(s):

Mary Schmeida ◽

Ramona Sue McNeal

Keyword(s):

Carbon Dioxide ◽

Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽

Greenhouse Gas ◽

Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽

Action Plan ◽

Carbon Dioxide Emission ◽

Change Initiatives ◽

Gas Emissions ◽

Climate Action ◽

Emission Limits

The Obama Administration Climate Action Plan is enforcing goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions below 2005 levels by 2020, regulating both stationary and mobile sources of pollution. As energy-related carbon dioxide emissions account for the majority of greenhouse gas emissions, the plan proposed carbon pollution standards for both new and existing plants. Impacts related to upgraded regulations have been projected as both favorable and not, with public and political opinions showing support among some groups and among other interests a concern. The purpose of this chapter is to analyze factors predicting which groups are supportive and non-supportive on setting stricter carbon dioxide emission limits on coal-fired electricity generating power plants. This topic is explored using multivariate regression analysis and individual level data. Findings suggest that comprehension of the policy area and individual financial situation are the most important factors in predicting support for stricter emission limits.

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NDC Invest: Supporting Transformational Climate Policy and Finance

10.18235/0003340 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Marcela Jaramillo ◽

Valentina Saavedra

Keyword(s):

Sustainable Development ◽

Latin American ◽

Scale Up ◽

Climate Targets ◽

Net Zero ◽

One Stop ◽

Nationally Determined Contributions ◽

The One ◽

Carbon Dioxide Co2

The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates that meeting the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting the global temperature rise from pre-industrial levels to between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius requires reaching net-zero emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) between 2050 and 2070, as well as deep reductions in the emissions of other greenhouse gases by around mid-century (GHGs) (IPCC, 2018). At the same time countries need to build resilience to face the changes that cannot be avoided. NDC Invest was created as the one-stop-shop of the IDB Group providing technical and financial support for countries in Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) in their efforts to achieve the climate objectives under the Paris Agreement, seeking to transition to a net zero, resilient and sustainable development pathways that improve quality of life and prosperity in LAC. Through our research and experience supporting countries and piloting solutions we have developed a toolbox for support. This paper describes three NDC Invest products to support Governments to tackle challenges and scale up action towards a climate aligned and sustainable development path: i) the design of Long-Term Strategies (LTS) for net-zero emissions and resilience; ii) design of ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), aligned to LTS; and iii) design of investment plans and finance strategies. Our three products are not a fix recipe, but rather a toolbox to provide flexible and relevant solutions tailored to country needs and context, and different stages of design and implementation of their climate targets.

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Implications of current net zero targets for long-term emissions pathways and warming levels

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11018 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Andreas Geiges ◽

Claire Fyson ◽

Frederic Hans ◽

Louise Jeffery ◽

Silke Mooldijk ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Co2 Emissions ◽

Short Term ◽

Global Emission ◽

Net Zero ◽

Transition Pathways ◽

Climate Action ◽

Global Zero ◽

Global Emissions ◽

Node Type

<div data-node-type="line">In 2020, climate target announcements were dominated by net-zero commitments, including by a number of major emitters. Despite the urgency of more ambitious NDCs in the short term, long-term net-zero targets are important for the transition to global zero emissions. Tracking progress towards and assessing the adequacy of these targets requires an assessment of what they mean for transition pathways and associated emissions trajectories at both national and global levels.&#160;</div><div data-node-type="line"></div><div data-node-type="line">We present an assessment of net-zero targets of the major emitting countries and their implications for long-term emissions trajectories and warming levels. Based on the work of the Climate Action Tracker, country-specific analyses are aggregated to a global emissions pathway to derive a best estimate for a resulting global warming in 2100. Undertaking this analysis requires assumptions to be made regarding projected emissions and removals from the land-use sector, non-CO2 emissions, and the trajectory of total net emissions after net-zero, which we explain and explore. For example, by computing the cumulative emissions of our aggregated net-zero target emissions pathway, we can compare this pathway with modelled global emissions pathways from the IPCC's SR1.5 Special Report, to draw broad conclusions over what current net-zero commitments might mean for carbon dioxide removal and non-CO2 emissions, and the uncertainties therein.</div>

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