scholarly journals Serious role of non-quarantined COVID-19 patients for random walk simulations

2022 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nariyuki Nakagiri ◽  
Kazunori Sato ◽  
Yukio Sakisaka ◽  
Kei-ichi Tainaka
Keyword(s):  
Random Walk ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Critical Value ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Mixed Population ◽  
Total Population Size ◽  
Infected People ◽  
The World ◽  
Pcr Test

AbstractThe infectious disease (COVID-19) causes serious damages and outbreaks. A large number of infected people have been reported in the world. However, such a number only represents those who have been tested; e.g. PCR test. We focus on the infected individuals who are not checked by inspections. The susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model is modified: infected people are divided into quarantined (Q) and non-quarantined (N) agents. Since N-agents behave like uninfected people, they can move around in a stochastic simulation. Both theory of well-mixed population and simulation of random-walk reveal that the total population size of Q-agents decrease in spite of increasing the number of tests. Such a paradox appears, when the ratio of Q exceeds a critical value. Random-walk simulations indicate that the infection hardly spreads, if the movement of all people is prohibited ("lockdown"). In this case the infected people are clustered and locally distributed within narrow spots. The similar result can be obtained, even when only non-infected people move around. However, when both N-agents and uninfected people move around, the infection spreads everywhere. Hence, it may be important to promote the inspections even for asymptomatic people, because most of N-agents are mild or asymptomatic.

Role of Survey Department In Disaster Management In Nepal

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
pp. 31-35
Author(s):  
Suresh Man Shrestha
Keyword(s):  
Natural Disaster ◽  
Disaster Management ◽  
Active Zone ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Outburst Flood ◽  
The World ◽  
Mountain System ◽  
Major River ◽  
Negative Impacts

The Himalayan Range is a young mountain system of the world and about 83% of the total area of Nepal is covered by high hills and mountains. Major river systems of Nepal originate from the glaciers and are perennial in nature. According to the preliminary results of the Census 2011, more than 50% of total population live in Terai and are vulnerable to flood. Since Nepal falls under the seismically active zone earthquake has been one of the major disasters experienced in the country. Fire, Glacier Lake Outburst Flood, lightening, hail storm are some other natural disaster claiming lives of Nepalese people. It is not possible to stop disasters, but the consolidated effort of different organization may make us better prepared to overcome the negative impacts of such disasters. This article tries to explore the role of Survey Department in this context.

IMPACT OF RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS ON THE STATUS OF RURAL WOMEN

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (26) ◽  
Author(s):  
Arun Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Rural Development ◽  
Rural Women ◽  
Total Population ◽  
World Population ◽  
Development Programs ◽  
The Past ◽  
The World ◽  
The Status

Mother is a radiant nurse, an angel of mercy, a patient teacher, a watchful guardian and compassionate attorney and a fountainhead of courage. Post independence sociologists paid attention towards the women who are traditionally backward, exploited and taken as second-rate citizens. This is obstruction and hindrance in the progress and prosperity of family, community and country. The complete social structure is affected. For the rural development and reconstruction, it is necessary to understand the changing social status and role of rural women who are 48.3% of the Total population of the country. For the study of past enables us to grasp the fundamental psychology behind the present problems and attitudes that uphold or reject them due to which it has come to be what it is. We may thus be enabling to make out the cause and circumstances embedded in the past, which led to the existence and conditions and causes are sure to prove themselves of great help to us in the making up and planning of a figure. Women constitute about fifty per cent of the world population. It is estimated that by A.D. 2000, the total number of women in the world will be more than 3 billion and they will outnumber men by nearly 175 million. At the United Nations Conference in Nairobi in 1985, it was noted that they comprise 35 per cent of the world’s labor force in the sphere of employment and occupied lower positions. Further it is observed that over 60 per cent of world’s illiterates are women, mostly in the developing countries. More than 60% respondents have accepted all the factors mentioned as variables are responsible for the uplift of the status of rural women. But; it is note-worthy that more than three-fourth of the respondents have emphasized especially on urbanization, women welfare organizations and rural development programs; as the tools of uplift for the status of rural women.

scholarly journals Implementation of Immigration Function for Protection of Indonesian Migrant Workers

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Achmad Setiawan. S
Keyword(s):  
Migrant Workers ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Legal Basis ◽  
The World ◽  
Directorate General ◽  
Border Areas ◽  
The Government

Indonesia is one of the most populous countries in the world. It makes an imbalance between the availability of employment and the total population, thus causing some citizens choose to become migrant workers in order to support their families. Along with the increase in the flow of migrant workers, it is also equivalent to the emergence of various problems related to migrant workers. Therefore, the Government needs to take steps to protect Indonesian migrant workers. In this paper, the author discusses the role of the Directorate General of Immigration in the implementation of the chess function of immigration for Indonesian migrant workers, while among others the Prevention of Non-Procedural PMI, facilities for migrant workers in border areas, and also supervision for PMI abroad. The method used is Empirical Juridical, which links the legal basis in this case the regulation of laws relating to the facts that occur in the community.

scholarly journals IMPACT OF RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS ON THE STATUS OF RURAL WOMEN

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (43) ◽  
Author(s):  
Arun Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Rural Development ◽  
Rural Women ◽  
Total Population ◽  
World Population ◽  
Development Programs ◽  
The Past ◽  
The World ◽  
The Status

Mother is a radiant nurse, an angel of mercy, a patient teacher, a watchful guardian and compassionate attorney and a fountainhead of courage. Post independence sociologists paid attention towards the women who are traditionally backward, exploited and taken as second-rate citizens. This is obstruction and hindrance in the progress and prosperity of family, community and country. The complete social structure is affected. For the rural development and reconstruction, it is necessary to understand the changing social status and role of rural women who are 48.3% of the Total population of the country. For the study of past enables us to grasp the fundamental psychology behind the present problems and attitudes that uphold or reject them due to which it has come to be what it is. We may thus be enabling to make out the cause and circumstances embedded in the past, which led to the existence and conditions and causes are sure to prove themselves of great help to us in the making up and planning of a figure. Women constitute about fifty per cent of the world population. It is estimated that by A.D. 2000, the total number of women in the world will be more than 3 billion and they will outnumber men by nearly 175 million. At the United Nations Conference in Nairobi in 1985, it was noted that they comprise 35 per cent of the world’s labor force in the sphere of employment and occupied lower positions. Further it is observed that over 60 per cent of world’s illiterates are women, mostly in the developing countries. More than 60% respondents have accepted all the factors mentioned as variables are responsible for the uplift of the status of rural women. But; it is note-worthy that more than three-fourth of the respondents have emphasized especially on urbanization, women welfare organizations and rural development programs; as the tools of uplift for the status of rural women.

The Role of Local Interactions in Cities’ Global Networking of Multinational Firms: An SIR Model Applied to Partial-Multiplex Directed Networks

2018 ◽  
pp. 138-147
Author(s):  
Maria Tsouchnika ◽  
Michael Kanetidis ◽  
Celine Rozenblat ◽  
Panos Argyrakis
Keyword(s):  
Multinational Firms ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Financial Resources ◽  
Geographical Proximity ◽  
Directed Networks ◽  
Financial Network ◽  
Local Interactions ◽  
Form Complex ◽  
The World

In “The Role of Local Interactions in Cities’ Global Networking of Multinational Firms: An SIR Model Applied to Partial-Multiplex Directed Networks,” the spreading of a financial crisis in a partial-multiplex, direct financial network is simulated. Two important factors shape the relationships between the cities: their geographical proximity and their activity proximity. Global firms interact with each other to form complex networks of financial relations of ownership relations between them. Whatever their activities, the networks of companies are mostly concentrated in the main global cities of the world, where they benefit from human, natural, and financial resources, but reversely, firms’ networks contribute to build the global characters of cities. This chapter examines the possible outcome of the spreading of a catastrophic event, such as an epidemic, by applying an SIR process to this network.

scholarly journals Predication of Pandemic COVID-19 situation in Maharashtra, India

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sunny Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Spreading Rate ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Current Spreading ◽  
Infected People ◽  
The World ◽  
Effective Models ◽  
Virus Spreading

AbstractPresently, the world is infected by COVID 19 virus which has created an emergency for public health. For controlling the spreading of the virus, we have to prepare for precaution and futuristic calculation for infection spreading. The coronavirus affects the population of the world including Inia. Here, we are the study the virus spreading rate on the Maharashtra state which is part of India. We are predicting the infected people by the SIR model. SIR model is one of the most effective models which can predict the spreading rate of the virus. We have validated the model with the current spreading rate with this SIR model. This study will help to stop the epidemic spreading because it is in the early stage in the Maharashtra region.

scholarly journals Markovian Random Walk Modeling and Visualization of the Epidemic Spread of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haluk Akay ◽  
George Barbastathis
Keyword(s):  
Random Walk ◽  
Population Density ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Respiratory Illness ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Epidemic Spread ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Susceptible Population ◽  
The World ◽  
Viral Respiratory

AbstractThe epidemic spread of CoVID-19 has resulted in confirmed cases of viral respiratory illness in more than 1.4 million people around the world as of April 7th, 2020 [1]. However, different regions have experienced the spread of this disease differently. Here, we develop a Markovian random-walk spatial extension of a quarantine-enhanced SIR model to measure, visualize and forecast the effect of susceptible population density, testing rate, and social distancing and quarantine policies on epidemic spreading. The model is used to simulate the spread of CoVID-19 in the regions of Hubei, China; South Korea; Iran; and Spain. The model allows for evaluating the results of different policies both quantitatively and visually as means of better understanding and controlling the spread of the disease.

Study on the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Intervention Based on Improved SIR Model (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Beibei Li ◽  
Wenjun Wang ◽  
Jun Wang ◽  
Mengxuan Zhang ◽  
Xueli Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Delay ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
The Real ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Intervention Measures ◽  
The World ◽  
Implementation Time ◽  
Three Stages

BACKGROUND The COVID-19 has been rapidly spreading across China's provinces, neighboring countries and all over the world since its outbreak in Wuhan, China in January 2020. At present, there are still many countries in the world suffering from it and struggle against it. OBJECTIVE The purpose of this paper is to prove the effectiveness of interventions implemented by some countries, so as to provide reference for other countries and future epidemics. METHODS We segment the cases data according to the implementation time of the intervention and put them into the improved SIR model which take the time–varying epidemiological parameters and the influence of time delay into account to evaluate the effectiveness of each intervention. RESULTS We employed the data of Italy, Britain and Spain to do the experiment, which is divided into four stages, three stages and four stages. Italy got the best time delay when days=4 and the quantification of the effectiveness of different interventions was 0.0254, 0.023 and 0.0147, respectively. The time delay in Britain was the best at 5 days, and the corresponding results were 0.0078 and -0.0095. The best time delay in Spain is 3 days, and the corresponding results were 0.2744, 0.2321 and -0.1033. Finally, we calculated the real reproductive number R in contrast to hypothetical R and found that the real reproductive number R have been lowered by interventions in various degree. CONCLUSIONS The results show that even though the effectiveness and time delays of different interventions vary from country to country, interventions can indeed reduce infected population by markedly decreasing reproductive number R. Therefore, intervention measures should be taken in time to slow down the development of the epidemic, reduce the number of infected people and economic losses.

The essence and causes of the spiritual and moral decline of mankind in the XX century

1998 ◽  
pp. 124-127
Author(s):  
V. Tolkachenko
Keyword(s):  
Well Being ◽  
Religious Institutions ◽  
Social Force ◽  
The World ◽  
Role Of Religion

One of the most important reasons for such a clearly distressed state of society was the decline of religion as a social force, the external manifestation of which is the weakening of religious institutions. "Religion," Baha'u'llah writes, "is the greatest of all means of establishing order in the world to the universal satisfaction of those who live in it." The weakening of the foundations of religion strengthened the ranks of ignoramuses, gave them impudence and arrogance. "I truly say that everything that belittles the supreme role of religion opens way for the revelry of maliciousness, inevitably leading to anarchy. " In another Tablet, He says: "Religion is a radiant light and an impregnable fortress that ensures the safety and well-being of the peoples of the world, for God-fearing induces man to adhere to the good and to reject all evil." Blink the light of religion, and chaos and distemper will set in, the radiance of justice, justice, tranquility and peace. "

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