scholarly journals Markovian Random Walk Modeling and Visualization of the Epidemic Spread of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haluk Akay ◽  
George Barbastathis
Keyword(s):  
Random Walk ◽  
Population Density ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Respiratory Illness ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Epidemic Spread ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Susceptible Population ◽  
The World ◽  
Viral Respiratory

AbstractThe epidemic spread of CoVID-19 has resulted in confirmed cases of viral respiratory illness in more than 1.4 million people around the world as of April 7th, 2020 [1]. However, different regions have experienced the spread of this disease differently. Here, we develop a Markovian random-walk spatial extension of a quarantine-enhanced SIR model to measure, visualize and forecast the effect of susceptible population density, testing rate, and social distancing and quarantine policies on epidemic spreading. The model is used to simulate the spread of CoVID-19 in the regions of Hubei, China; South Korea; Iran; and Spain. The model allows for evaluating the results of different policies both quantitatively and visually as means of better understanding and controlling the spread of the disease.

scholarly journals Epidemic spreading model in heterogeneous conditions

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Andrey Viktorovich Podlazov
Keyword(s):  
Equilibrium Position ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Epidemic Spread ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Oscillatory Dynamics ◽  
Spreading Model ◽  
Multiple Contacts ◽  
The Social

I propose two modifications of the SIR model of the epidemic spread, taking into account the social and space heterogeneity of the population. Social hetero¬geneity associated with differences in the intensity of paired contacts between people qualitatively changes the basic reproductive number. Space heterogeneity associated with differences in the intensity of multiple contacts between people significantly shifts the equilibrium position, increases the characteristic times and leads to the emergence of oscillatory dynamics of finite duration.

scholarly journals COVID-19 screening center models in South Korea

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ji Eon Kim ◽  
Ji Ho Lee ◽  
Hocheol Lee ◽  
Seok Jun Moon ◽  
Eun Woo Nam
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Population Density ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Role Model ◽  
High Population Density ◽  
Adequate Model ◽  
The World ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
Community Transmission

Abstract In a recent report, the British Broadcasting Company (BBC) introduced South Korea’s measures to manage COVID-19 as role model for the world. Screening centers serve as frontiers for preventing community transmission of infectious diseases. COVID-19 screening centers in Korea operate 24 h a day, always open for individuals with suspected COVID-19 symptoms. South Korea concentrated COVID-19 screening centers around cities with high population density. Advanced screening centers (models C, D, and E) proved more effective and efficient in the prevention of COVID-19 than the traditional screening centers (models A and B). Particularly, screening centers at Incheon Airport in South Korea prevent transmission through imported cases effectively. It will be important elsewhere, as in South Korea, to establish an infectious disease delivery system that can lead to 'Test-Treat-Track' using an adequate model of screening centers.

The World

2017 ◽  
pp. 65-99
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Systems Theory ◽  
The Other ◽  
World Systems ◽  
World Systems Theory ◽  
Model Classification ◽  
Economic Complexity ◽  
The World

We will now look at the general results from the ? model (developed in Chapter II). The chapter examines the overlap between the world-systems theory classification of core and periphery countries and the ? model classification of sink (economically efficient) and source (economically inefficient) countries. Core countries exhibit not only economic complexity but also complex institutions. However, some of these countries, such as Australia and Canada, are not economically efficient, mainly due to their large footprint and low population density. On the other hand, some semi-periphery countries, such as South Korea and Turkey, are economically efficient according to the model.

scholarly journals Serious role of non-quarantined COVID-19 patients for random walk simulations

2022 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nariyuki Nakagiri ◽  
Kazunori Sato ◽  
Yukio Sakisaka ◽  
Kei-ichi Tainaka
Keyword(s):  
Random Walk ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Critical Value ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Mixed Population ◽  
Total Population Size ◽  
Infected People ◽  
The World ◽  
Pcr Test

AbstractThe infectious disease (COVID-19) causes serious damages and outbreaks. A large number of infected people have been reported in the world. However, such a number only represents those who have been tested; e.g. PCR test. We focus on the infected individuals who are not checked by inspections. The susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model is modified: infected people are divided into quarantined (Q) and non-quarantined (N) agents. Since N-agents behave like uninfected people, they can move around in a stochastic simulation. Both theory of well-mixed population and simulation of random-walk reveal that the total population size of Q-agents decrease in spite of increasing the number of tests. Such a paradox appears, when the ratio of Q exceeds a critical value. Random-walk simulations indicate that the infection hardly spreads, if the movement of all people is prohibited ("lockdown"). In this case the infected people are clustered and locally distributed within narrow spots. The similar result can be obtained, even when only non-infected people move around. However, when both N-agents and uninfected people move around, the infection spreads everywhere. Hence, it may be important to promote the inspections even for asymptomatic people, because most of N-agents are mild or asymptomatic.

scholarly journals Discovering Correlations between the COVID-19 Epidemic Spread and Climate

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (21) ◽  
pp. 7958 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaofu Lin ◽  
Yu Fu ◽  
Xiaofeng Jia ◽  
Shimin Ding ◽  
Yongxing Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Newly Diagnosed ◽  
Epidemic Spread ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Corona Virus ◽  
The World

The outbreak of Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has affected the lives of people all over the world. It is particularly urgent and important to analyze the epidemic spreading law and support the implementation of epidemic prevention measures. It is found that there is a moderate to high correlations between the number of newly diagnosed cases per day and temperature and relative humidity in countries with more than 10,000 confirmed cases worldwide. In this paper, the correlation between temperature/relative humidity and the number of newly diagnosed cases is obvious. Governments can adjust the epidemic prevention measures according to climate change, which will more effectively control the spread of COVID-19.

scholarly journals Strategic release of lockdowns in a COVID infection model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi Zhang ◽  
Mohit Hota ◽  
Sanjiv Kapoor
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Economic System ◽  
Health Care System ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Infection Model ◽  
Epidemic Spread ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

The COVID-19 Pandemic has impacted the world's socio-economic system, resulting in a serious health crisis and lockdowns around the world. As the growth of infection slows, decisions regarding easing of lockdown restrictions are required, keeping in view the capacity of the health-care system. In this paper, we quantify the impact of a multi-phased release of the population from lockdown. Using the SIR model for epidemic spread, we design and implement a method to determine the earliest time of release from lockdown restrictions, constrained by a specified threshold on the subsequent peaks of infection. Trade-offs between the threshold and the earliest times of removing lockdown restrictions are illustrated. Additionally, we consider alternative policy decisions where the population is released gradually from lockdown restrictions and illustrate the trade-offs between the rate of release of population and number of active infections.

scholarly journals City Lockdown and Nationwide Intensive Community Screening Are Effective In Controlling COVID-19 Epidemic: Analysis Based on A Modified SIR Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tailai Peng ◽  
Xinhao Liu ◽  
Hefeng Ni ◽  
Zhe Cui ◽  
Lei Du
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
Community Screening ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
The World ◽  
Time Point

Abstract In December 2019, an outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic occurred in Wuhan, China and this infection has spread rapidly into more than 109 countries around the world. To limit the rapid spread in community and nationwide, Wuhan city lockdown and nationwide intensive community screening were employed by Chinese government. To assess the effectiveness of city lockdown and intensive community screening, we built a modified SIR model by introducing an α value into the classic SIR model. The α value represents the proportion of the infected that is not effectively isolated from the susceptible at a given time point. The α value of China excluding Hubei province was largely reduced by Wuhan city lockdown. Although the α value of Wuhan city dropped a little with city lockdown, but dropped rapidly with intensive community screening. With the decrease of α value, the epidemic in China would be end at the beginning of June 2020. With current epidemiological data, the infection cases in South Korea and Italy are predicted to increase exponentially in the next days, if stringent mitigation measures were not adopted.Authors Tailai Peng and Xinhao Liu contributed equally to this work.

scholarly journals Predication of Pandemic COVID-19 situation in Maharashtra, India

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sunny Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Spreading Rate ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Current Spreading ◽  
Infected People ◽  
The World ◽  
Effective Models ◽  
Virus Spreading

AbstractPresently, the world is infected by COVID 19 virus which has created an emergency for public health. For controlling the spreading of the virus, we have to prepare for precaution and futuristic calculation for infection spreading. The coronavirus affects the population of the world including Inia. Here, we are the study the virus spreading rate on the Maharashtra state which is part of India. We are predicting the infected people by the SIR model. SIR model is one of the most effective models which can predict the spreading rate of the virus. We have validated the model with the current spreading rate with this SIR model. This study will help to stop the epidemic spreading because it is in the early stage in the Maharashtra region.

scholarly journals GOVERNMENT LEGAL ACT COMPARISON BETWEEN INDONESIA AND SOUTH KOREA IN HANDLING COVID-19 PANDEMIC

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 43
Author(s):  
Isma Novalia Firdha Susanto ◽  
Bayu Aji Satria ◽  
Sholahuddin Al-Fatih
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Respiratory Illness ◽  
Economic Sector ◽  
Effective Strategy ◽  
South Korean ◽  
Medical Sector ◽  
The World ◽  
Case Rate ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Other World

Coronavirus Disease of 2019 (COVID-19) with the official name of SARS-CoV-2 has been a serious emerging alert for countries around the world, which makes it a global outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel (new) coronavirus. Some countries did a remarkable job on flatten their COVID-19 case rate curve, the finest world reputation in handling this pandemic is given to the Republic of Korea or more known as South Korea which has amazed other world leaders wondering how Moon Jae-in, current President of South Korea, has successfully implied effective and accurate strategies in handling this world outbreak in South Korea. Asides from South Korea succeed, there are some countries who are fall way behind such as the Republic of Indonesia who is currently concerning not only in the medical sector, but the emerging economic sector is severely impacted which leaves us a solicitous feeling towards the future of our nation. In this case, a comparative study is needed to reflect on what has not yet done right. This paper discusses what sort of precise policy reconstructions should be adapted by the Indonesian government from the South Korean government’s effective strategy accuracy in handling COVID-19.

The Irresistible Rise of Asian Cinema 1

1994 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerald Pratley
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Motion Pictures ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
New Wave ◽  
World Today ◽  
The World ◽  
Production Activity ◽  
Exciting Development ◽  
Asian Cinema

PRODUCTION ACTIVITY It was not so many years ago it seems when speaking of motion pictures from Asia meant Japanese films as represented by Akira Kurosawa and films from India made by Satyajit Ray. But suddenly time passes and now we are impressed and immersed in the flow of films from Hong Kong, Taiwan, China, South Korea, the Philippines, with Japan a less significant player, and India and Pakistan more prolific than ever in making entertainment for the mass audience. No one has given it a name or described it as "New Wave," it is simply Asian Cinema -- the most exciting development in filmmaking taking place in the world today. In China everything is falling apart yet it manages to hold together, nothing works yet it keeps on going, nothing is ever finished or properly maintained, and yes, here time does wait for every man. But as far...

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