Study on the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Intervention Based on Improved SIR Model (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Beibei Li ◽  
Wenjun Wang ◽  
Jun Wang ◽  
Mengxuan Zhang ◽  
Xueli Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Delay ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
The Real ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Intervention Measures ◽  
The World ◽  
Implementation Time ◽  
Three Stages

BACKGROUND The COVID-19 has been rapidly spreading across China's provinces, neighboring countries and all over the world since its outbreak in Wuhan, China in January 2020. At present, there are still many countries in the world suffering from it and struggle against it. OBJECTIVE The purpose of this paper is to prove the effectiveness of interventions implemented by some countries, so as to provide reference for other countries and future epidemics. METHODS We segment the cases data according to the implementation time of the intervention and put them into the improved SIR model which take the time–varying epidemiological parameters and the influence of time delay into account to evaluate the effectiveness of each intervention. RESULTS We employed the data of Italy, Britain and Spain to do the experiment, which is divided into four stages, three stages and four stages. Italy got the best time delay when days=4 and the quantification of the effectiveness of different interventions was 0.0254, 0.023 and 0.0147, respectively. The time delay in Britain was the best at 5 days, and the corresponding results were 0.0078 and -0.0095. The best time delay in Spain is 3 days, and the corresponding results were 0.2744, 0.2321 and -0.1033. Finally, we calculated the real reproductive number R in contrast to hypothetical R and found that the real reproductive number R have been lowered by interventions in various degree. CONCLUSIONS The results show that even though the effectiveness and time delays of different interventions vary from country to country, interventions can indeed reduce infected population by markedly decreasing reproductive number R. Therefore, intervention measures should be taken in time to slow down the development of the epidemic, reduce the number of infected people and economic losses.

scholarly journals Determination of critical decision points for COVID-19 measures in Japan

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Junu Kim ◽  
Kensaku Matsunami ◽  
Kozue Okamura ◽  
Sara Badr ◽  
Hirokazu Sugiyama
Keyword(s):  
Time Delay ◽  
Infection Rate ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Decision Points ◽  
Medical Institutions ◽  
The World

AbstractCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread throughout the world. The prediction of the number of cases has become essential to governments’ ability to define policies and take countermeasures in advance. The numbers of cases have been estimated using compartment models of infectious diseases such as the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model and its derived models. However, the required use of hypothetical future values for parameters, such as the effective reproduction number or infection rate, increases the uncertainty of the prediction results. Here, we describe our model for forecasting future COVID-19 cases based on observed data by considering the time delay (tdelay). We used machine learning to estimate the future infection rate based on real-time mobility, temperature, and relative humidity. We then used this calculation with the susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) model to forecast future cases with less uncertainty. The results suggest that changes in mobility affect observed infection rates with 5–10 days of time delay. This window should be accounted for in the decision-making phase especially during periods with predicted infection surges. Our prediction model helps governments and medical institutions to take targeted early countermeasures at critical decision points regarding mobility to avoid significant levels of infection rise.

scholarly journals Serious role of non-quarantined COVID-19 patients for random walk simulations

2022 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nariyuki Nakagiri ◽  
Kazunori Sato ◽  
Yukio Sakisaka ◽  
Kei-ichi Tainaka
Keyword(s):  
Random Walk ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Critical Value ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Mixed Population ◽  
Total Population Size ◽  
Infected People ◽  
The World ◽  
Pcr Test

AbstractThe infectious disease (COVID-19) causes serious damages and outbreaks. A large number of infected people have been reported in the world. However, such a number only represents those who have been tested; e.g. PCR test. We focus on the infected individuals who are not checked by inspections. The susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model is modified: infected people are divided into quarantined (Q) and non-quarantined (N) agents. Since N-agents behave like uninfected people, they can move around in a stochastic simulation. Both theory of well-mixed population and simulation of random-walk reveal that the total population size of Q-agents decrease in spite of increasing the number of tests. Such a paradox appears, when the ratio of Q exceeds a critical value. Random-walk simulations indicate that the infection hardly spreads, if the movement of all people is prohibited ("lockdown"). In this case the infected people are clustered and locally distributed within narrow spots. The similar result can be obtained, even when only non-infected people move around. However, when both N-agents and uninfected people move around, the infection spreads everywhere. Hence, it may be important to promote the inspections even for asymptomatic people, because most of N-agents are mild or asymptomatic.

scholarly journals Delayed dynamics of SIR model for COVID-19 spread forecasting

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hameed K. Ebraheem ◽  
Nizar Alkhateeb ◽  
Hussein Badran ◽  
Ali Hajjiah ◽  
Ebraheem Sultan
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Geographical Area ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Accurate Prediction ◽  
World Health ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Time Data ◽  
New Model ◽  
The World ◽  
Real Time Data

Abstract BackgroundThe global spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has been one of the most challenging tasks the world has faced since the last pandemic outbreak of 1918. Early on countries felt the strength and persistence of the virus infections spreading with no means of estimating the dispersion rates. Officials in infected countries followed several guidelines set by the World Health Organization (WHO) to try and flatten the infection curve and maintain a low number of infectives. Nonetheless, the virus kept on spreading with impunity and all predictions of how containments or peak detections have been a fail so far. Therefore, a need for a more accurate model to predict the peaking of infections and help guide officials on what best to enact as a measure of public health safety from a multitude of choices outlined by the WHO. Earlier studies of compartmental model of Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) did not predict the peaking of a hot spots flairs of viral infections and a new model needed to provide a more realistic results to serve public officials battling the pandemic worldwideMethodsA new modified SIR model which incorporates appropriate delay parameters leading to a more precise prediction of COVID-19 real time data. The predictions of the new model are compared to real data obtained from four countries, namely Germany, Italy, Kuwait, and Oman. Two included delay periods for incubation and recovery within the SIR model produces a sensible and more accurate representation of the real time data. The reproductive number 𝑅0 is defined for the model for values of recovery time delay 𝜏2 of the infective case.ResultsIncorporating two delay periods that corresponds to the duration of the incubational and recovery periods measured for COVID-19 gives a more accurate prediction of the peak pandemic infections per geographical area. The parameter variations in the model 𝛽,𝛾,𝛼,𝜏1,𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝜏2 makeup different cases corresponding to different situations. The variations are estimated a priori based on what is being observed and collected data of an infected region to give officials better guidelines on what health policies should be enacted in the future.2 of 15ConclusionsThe empirical data provided by WHO show that the proposed new SIR model gives a better more accurate prediction of COVID-19 pandemic spreading curve. The model is shown to closely fit real time data for four countries. Simulation results are consistent with data and generated curves are well constrained. The parameters can be varied and adjusted for producing and/or reproduction of numbers within the range of each country

scholarly journals Predication of Pandemic COVID-19 situation in Maharashtra, India

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sunny Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Spreading Rate ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Current Spreading ◽  
Infected People ◽  
The World ◽  
Effective Models ◽  
Virus Spreading

AbstractPresently, the world is infected by COVID 19 virus which has created an emergency for public health. For controlling the spreading of the virus, we have to prepare for precaution and futuristic calculation for infection spreading. The coronavirus affects the population of the world including Inia. Here, we are the study the virus spreading rate on the Maharashtra state which is part of India. We are predicting the infected people by the SIR model. SIR model is one of the most effective models which can predict the spreading rate of the virus. We have validated the model with the current spreading rate with this SIR model. This study will help to stop the epidemic spreading because it is in the early stage in the Maharashtra region.

scholarly journals A Review on Smart Pendent

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (VI) ◽  
pp. 2749-2751
Author(s):  
Deepak A. Pashine
Keyword(s):  
Input Power ◽  
Experimental Comparison ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Infected Person ◽  
Rf Power ◽  
High Input ◽  
Infected People ◽  
High Input Power ◽  
The World ◽  
Small Device

The world is facing a dangerous pandemic and it is a transmissible virus that infects people who came in contact with the infected person and with the things used by them. Many industries see huge economic losses, and businesses are going ruined. Although, unlock process is started still many industries facing problems due to the increasing rate of Covid positive patients, it is not possible to close working after the detection of individual positive employees. Also, it is difficult to find contacted employees with Covid positive employees. .It became a challenging task to find out how many people came in contact with the infected people. So, to make this process somehow easy we have designed a small device. In this paper, we have described the smart pendent a small device that helps to detect how many people come in contact with the coronavirus infected person. It is a wearable RF device in the form factor of a Pendant, suitable for powering a smart Rf device. An experimental comparison between multistage Cockcroft-Walton and Dickson RF-DC converters shows that the Dickson topology offers higher efficiency at high input power, whereas the Cockcroft- Walton converter performs better for low input power. The pendant can produce up to 23.2 µW at 10.4 m from a commercial isotropic 3 W RF power transmitter.

Exploring Citizenship: Unit 4 My Heritage

EDIS ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (5) ◽  
pp. 14
Author(s):  
John Rutledge ◽  
Joy C. Jordan ◽  
Dale W. Pracht
Keyword(s):  
Youth Development ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Development Program ◽  
The Real ◽  
Volunteer Leaders ◽  
Youth Development Program ◽  
Major Revision ◽  
The World ◽  
Individual Needs

 The 4-H Citizenship Project offers the opportunity to help 4-H members relate all of their 4-H projects and experiences to the world around them. The 4-H Citizenship manuals will serve as a guide for 4-H Citizenship experiences. To be truly meaningful to the real-life needs and interests of your group, the contribution of volunteer leaders is essential. Each person, neighborhood, and community has individual needs that you can help your group identify. This 14-page major revision of Unit IV covers the heritage project. Written by John Rutledge, Joy C. Jordan, and Dale Pracht and published by the UF/IFAS Extension 4-H Youth Development program. https://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/4h019

KINERJA iLEARNING RAHARJA ASK AND NEWS (IRAN) DALAM MENDUKUNG KEGIATAN TRIDHARMA IDUHELP!

CCIT Journal ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-33
Author(s):  
Untung Rahardja ◽  
Meta Amalya Dewi ◽  
Fitri Lisnawati
Keyword(s):  
Information Technology ◽  
System Performance ◽  
Communication Media ◽  
Related Method ◽  
Literature Reviews ◽  
The World ◽  
Information And Communication ◽  
System Requirements ◽  
Three Stages ◽  
Care System

Advances in information technology and communications which we achieve now actually been recognized and felt in the world of education in general. Currently College Prog implement a Tridharma terms Tridharma iDuHelp!. Tridharma is one of the basic responsibilities that students must be developed simultaneously and together. In this Tridharma still there are problems in the system iDuHelp! service. So IRAN (iLearning Prog Ask and News) in collaboration with iDuHelp! in providing answers and information needed by the student. In its application in Tridharma iDuHelp! IRAN There is a related method in it, such as iLearning methods that are currently being developed. With iLearning method can facilitate conduct research in detail, accurately, and clearly by using mindmapping. Besides the method of analysis is also done with three stages  namely the identification of the problem, identifying needs, and identifying system requirements. In this study using 4 literature reviews that can be used as references in preparing this paper. In this article explained about the problems that arise and solving problems in accurately using the flow Flowchart. In the implementation of the prototype shown iDuHelp! As well as the performance of Iran. So the end result of the study is a system performance to information and communication media of Iran can maximize iDuHelp! care system  It is widely integrated in a university.

Risk and Return of Retail Sukuk and Retail Bond in Indonesia Period 2008-2017 (Comparative Study)

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rahma Yudi Astuti ◽  
Asad Arsya Brilliant Fani
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Comparative Study ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Bond Market ◽  
Bond Pricing ◽  
Risk And Return ◽  
Underlying Asset ◽  
The Real ◽  
The World

Sukuk and Bonds has differences and similarities. Fundamental differences between sukuk and bonds are first, underlying asset in every sukuk issuance, concept of profit loss sharing and the use of Islamic contracts. Whereas conducted research in practice of differences between sukuk and bonds are still an on-going discussion. This study aims to add the evidence in the discussion regarding whether there is differences between sukuk and bonds in the world of practice, provide investment preferences as well as educating investors in choosing sukuk or bonds as a sustainable and smooth instrument. The method used is Mann Whitney U-Test to test whether there is a different between yield to maturity (return) and standard deviation (risk) of both instruments. Using secondary data of Retail Sukuk (SR) and Retail Bonds (ORI) period 2008-2017 obtained from Indonesia Stock Exchange, Indonesia Bond Market Directory and Indonesia Bond Pricing Agency. The result shows that there is no significance difference of retail sukuk return and risk with retail bonds in Indonesia. Besides retail bonds are show higher return than retail sukuk because of higher coupon and longest mature date. While, retail sukuk is more stable rather than bonds as it backed up by the real underlying asset. Keywords: Retail Sukuk (SR), Retail Bonds (ORI), Yield to Maturity

The Supply-Demand Research of Cultural and Tourism Industries Policies in China with the Impact of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-24
Author(s):  
Dr. Jianfei Yang
Keyword(s):  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Cultural Industries ◽  
Real Situation ◽  
The Real ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Post Period

COVID-19 has made a bad influence on economic and society including cultural and tourism industry in China，2020.The industry has received a huge loss in the first quarter of the year and the situation is getting worse in the near future. It is believed that there will be a long impact for the country even the world. In order to recover the industry, Chinese government has published series of policies to support the enterprises and clusters to reduce the bad influence of COVID-19. This paper mainly uses filed survey and documentary research to map the real situation of the industry. It tries to find the policy demand of the industries and then analyze the policies published by government to conquer COVID-19. Meanwhile it will focus on whether the supply meet the demand and give suggestions on how to promote the policy efficiency in the post period of COVID-19 in China. Keywords: Evaluation; Cultural Industries; Policy; Park; Pandemic

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