Simulation of the minimum annual river flows based on the RCP climatic scenario, time horizon up to 2060-2080 and the Kaczawa River

In this paper a new simulations of minimum daily flow for Kaczawa River a left side tributary of the Odra River in south-west Poland are presented. Generated data were made based on very long series of 35 years of observed data and 24 sites of meteorological stations for south-west Poland gathered from the the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management National Research Institute (IMGW). For the data generation the spatial weather generator SWGEN producing the multisite daily time series was applied. Data were generated for the present (the year 2000 are used as a background) as well for future climate condition for 2060 and 2080 according Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. The flow simulation in the river catchment is made using MIKE SHE hydrological model. Simulations are done for 2060 and 2080. The large number of new simulated series determined by the lead time, two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP6.0), and number of generated years (1000 for each case) is equal to 5000 for a single station. Finally, Lognormal Pdf function for the minimum flow is presented as well probability of exceedance of minimum values.

Download Full-text

Changes in the number of nesting pairs and breeding success of theWhite Stork Ciconia ciconia in a large city and a neighbouring rural area in South-West Poland

Ornis Hungarica ◽

10.1515/orhu-2017-0018 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 25 (2) ◽

pp. 109-115 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Grzegorz Kopij

Keyword(s):

Large City ◽

Breeding Population ◽

White Stork ◽

City Hall ◽

South West ◽

Odra River ◽

White Storks ◽

Education And Awareness ◽

The Mean ◽

The City

Abstract During the years 1994–2009, the number of White Stork pairs breeding in the city of Wrocław (293 km2) fluctuated between 5 pairs in 1999 and 19 pairs 2004. Most nests were clumped in two sites in the Odra river valley. Two nests were located only cca. 1 km from the city hall. The fluctuations in numbers can be linked to the availability of feeding grounds and weather. In years when grass was mowed in the Odra valley, the number of White Storks was higher than in years when the grass was left unattended. Overall, the mean number of fledglings per successful pair during the years 1995–2009 was slightly higher in the rural than in the urban area. Contrary to expectation, the mean number of fledglings per successful pair was the highest in the year of highest population density. In two rural counties adjacent to Wrocław, the number of breeding pairs was similar to that in the city in 1994/95 (15 vs. 13 pairs). However, in 2004 the number of breeding pairs in the city almost doubled compared to that in the neighboring counties (10 vs. 19 pairs). After a sharp decline between 2004 and 2008, populations in both areas were similar in 2009 (5 vs. 4 pairs), but much lower than in 1994–1995. Wrocław is probably the only large city (>100,000 people) in Poland, where the White Stork has developed a sizeable, although fluctuating, breeding population. One of the most powerful role the city-nesting White Storks may play is their ability to engage directly citizens with nature and facilitate in that way environmental education and awareness.

Download Full-text

Greenland Ice Mapping Project: ice flow velocity variation at sub-monthly to decadal timescales

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-12-2211-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 12 (7) ◽

pp. 2211-2227 ◽

Cited By ~ 20

Author(s):

Ian Joughin ◽

Ben E. Smith ◽

Ian Howat

Keyword(s):

Flow Speed ◽

Velocity Variation ◽

Landsat 8 ◽

North West ◽

South West ◽

Speed Up ◽

Ice Velocity ◽

Year 2000 ◽

The Impact ◽

Good Agreement

Abstract. We describe several new ice velocity maps produced by the Greenland Ice Mapping Project (GIMP) using Landsat 8 and Copernicus Sentinel 1A/B data. We then focus on several sites where we analyse these data in conjunction with earlier data from this project, which extend back to the year 2000. At Jakobshavn Isbræ and Køge Bugt, we find good agreement when comparing results from different sensors. In a change from recent behaviour, Jakobshavn Isbræ began slowing substantially in 2017, with a midsummer peak that was even slower than some previous winter minima. Over the last decade, we identify two major slowdown events at Køge Bugt that coincide with short-term advances of the terminus. We also examined populations of glaciers in north-west and south-west Greenland to produce a record of speed-up since 2000. Collectively these glaciers continue to speed up, but there are regional differences in the timing of periods of peak speed-up. In addition, we computed trends in winter flow speed for much of the south-west margin of the ice sheet and find little in the way of statistically significant changes over the period covered by our data. Finally, although the consistency of the data is generally good over time and across sensors, our analysis indicates that substantial differences can arise in regions with high strain rates (e.g. shear margins) where sensor resolution can become a factor. For applications such as constraining model inversions, users should factor in the impact that the data's resolution has on their results.

Download Full-text

Rainfall trends for the State of Paraná: present and future climate

Ambiente e Agua - An Interdisciplinary Journal of Applied Science ◽

10.4136/ambi-agua.2258 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 14 (2) ◽

pp. 1

Author(s):

Luciana Espindula de Quadros ◽

Eloy Lemos de Mello ◽

Benedito Martins Gomes ◽

Fernanda Cristina Araujo

Keyword(s):

Weather Forecasting ◽

The State ◽

Monthly Precipitation ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Precipitation Trend ◽

Rainfall Trends ◽

Historical Series ◽

Simulated Series ◽

Slope Estimator ◽

Near Future

This paper analyzes the variability and the precipitation trend of the State of Paraná, in Brazil. For that, monthly precipitation data belonging to 24 precipitation stations in a 30-year period (1980-2010) were analyzed and they were compared with projections of precipitation for the years 2016-2050. These data were simulated by Eta/Miroc5 for RCP 4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways) from the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies CPTEC/INPE and the historical data of precipitation were taken from National Water Agency (ANA). The Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and the Sen’s slope estimator were applied to detect trends and magnitudes, respectively. The Mann-Whitney test was used to compare the median of the historical series (1980-2010) with the simulated series (2016-2050) and the comparison of the means between the two series was performed by Test t. The results draw attention to the great variability and significant changes in the monthly average rainfall that may occur, if the climate change scenarios that were considered become a reality in the near future.

Download Full-text

Indicator Based Spatial Climate Change Vulnerability of South West Coastal Bangladesh

Journal of Scientific Research and Reports ◽

10.9734/jsrr/2019/v23i530135 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 1-12

Author(s):

Md. Abdur Razzaque ◽

Muhammed Alamgir

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Coastal Region ◽

Principal Component ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Multivariate Statistical ◽

Climate Change Vulnerability ◽

Secondary Sources ◽

Coastal Bangladesh ◽

South West ◽

The Future

Aims: The aim of the study was to assess the indicator based climate change vulnerability of south west coastal Bangladesh and its future. Place of Study: Four districts form south west coastal Bangladesh, having a total of 50 upazilas, have been selected as the study area. They are Satkhira, Khulna, Bagerhat, Pirojpur, Barguna and Patuakhali districts. Methodology: This study has been conducted, using multivariate statistical techniques, to assess the vulnerabilities of the coastal region of Bangladesh by considering the IPCC framework of vulnerability studies. A total of 31 indicators have been selected of which 23 are socio-economic and 8 are biophysical which have been retrieved from the secondary sources. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) has been applied to derive unbiased weights of all indicators considering both present (2011) and the future (2050) climate change scenarios. Results: This study has identiﬁed 7 principal components through PCA which has been grouped as PC1 (Demographic Vulnerability), PC2 (Economic Vulnerability), PC3 (Climatic Vulnerability), PC4 (Health Vulnerability), PC5 (Agricultural Vulnerability), PC6 (Infrastructural Vulnerability) and PC7 (Water Vulnerability). For all 7 PCA groups (termed as vulnerability proﬁle), the number of high and medium vulnerable coastal Upazilas will be significantly changed in the future. No of highly vulnerable Upazila will increase from 0 to 1 for PC1, unchanged for PC2, increase from 0 to 1 for PC3, from 32 to 33 for PC4, from 47 to 68 for PC5, decrease from 48 to 46 for PC6, and an increase from 14 to 21 for PC7, respectively. Conclusion: Discrete spatial maps of each profile have been generated to assess the regional variation of all vulnerability proﬁles across the southwest coastal region of Bangladesh. The ﬁndings of this study might be useful for policy makers and planners.

Download Full-text

Hydroelectric Development and Wilderness Conflict in South-West Tasmania

Environmental Conservation ◽

10.1017/s0376892900012601 ◽

1983 ◽

Vol 10 (3) ◽

pp. 197-204 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Andrew K. Dragun

Keyword(s):

Opportunity Cost ◽

Electricity Generation ◽

High Rate ◽

Cost Advantage ◽

Hydroelectric Development ◽

Rigorous Evaluation ◽

Cost Differential ◽

South West ◽

Hydroelectric Developments ◽

Year 2000

The hydroelectric developments portended in South-West Tasmania would inundate tracts having major wilderness and archaeological values as well as threaten a much larger area of wilderness. The development of the region is ‘justified’ by the construction authority, in terms of an expected high rate of electricity demand towards the year 2000. However, a range of independent demand analyses suggest that the demand for electricity in Tasmania will not approach the Hydro-Electric Commission's expectations. Thus a lag in demand may be identified which should provide time for a rigorous evaluation of the wilderness value of the region together with an appraisal of the alternative electricity-generation options.Currently, it appears that a cost advantage exists for the favoured ‘Gordon-below-Franklin’ project. However, the opportunity-cost differential of this project relative to several less-damaging alternatives is slight, at least when the growth in wilderness and electricity demands are considered. The opportunity-cost tradeoff appears quite trivial when current tourist and recreational impacts are accounted for.

Download Full-text

Modeling the sensitivity of CERES-Rice model: An experience of Nepal

Agronomy Journal of Nepal ◽

10.3126/ajn.v3i0.8982 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 3 ◽

pp. 11-22 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

A Lamsal ◽

LP Amgai ◽

A Giri

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sensitivity Analysis ◽

Solar Radiation ◽

Grain Yield ◽

Minimum Temperature ◽

Carbon Dioxide Concentration ◽

Yield Reduction ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Growth Duration ◽

Climatic Scenario

The experiment was conducted with four levels of nitrogen (40, 80,120 and 160 kg/ha) and 3 different cultivars (Prithivi hybrid), Masuli (HYV) and Sunaulo Sugandha (Aromatic).RMSE value (747.35 kg/ha, 1.106 days, 2.58 days and 0.004 kg/ha) and D-stat value (0.793, 0.99, 0.99 and 0.633) for grain yield, anthesis days, maturity days, and individual grain weight respectively. The objective of this study was to identify whether CSM-CERES-Rice model can be used in Nepalese condition and to evaluate the sensitivity of model with impact of climate change on rice production. Eight different climate scenarios were built by perturbing maximum and minimum temperature (± 4°C), CO2 (± 20ppm), solar radiation (±1MJ/m2/day) using interactive sensitivity analysis mode in DSSAT. Among the scenario evaluated, temperature (± 40°C), CO2 concentration (+20 ppm) with change in solar radiation (±1MJ m-2 day-1) resulted maximum increase in yield (by 62, 41 and 42%) under decreasing climatic scenarios and sharp decline in yield (by 80, 46 and 40%) was observed under increasing climate change scenarios, in Prithivi, Masuli and Sunaulo Sugandha cultivars respectively.Not surprisingly, increasing yield by (48, 25 and 27 %) and decrease in yield by(77, 41 and 34) by perturbing only maximum and minimum temperature by (± 4) shows that the temperature is most sensitive for yield potentiality of cultivars than other. CERES-Riceversion 4.0 was well calibrated in Chitwan Nepal condition. The model applications show that model could be a tool for precision decision-making. There was variation in yield in response to the change in climatic scenario in the study. RMSE value (747.4 kg/ha, 1.11days, and 2.58 days), and d-stat (0.79, 0.99 and 0.99) for grain yield, anthesis, and maturity days confirm the possibility of CERESRiceuse in Nepalese agriculture. The finding showed that there was sharp decrease in rice yield due to change in temperature, CO2 and solar radiation. Climatic scenario developed by CERES-Rice model in sensitivity analysis resulted yield reduction up to 80%. Among the cultivar, hybrid rice shows more vulnerability with climate change. Decrease in yield were mainly associated with lowering growth duration along with increasing temperature, where as there is very less counter effect of increasing carbon dioxide concentration and solar radiation. Agronomy Journal of Nepal (Agron JN) Vol. 3. 2013, Page 11-22 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/ajn.v3i0.8982

Download Full-text

Multigrain seabed sediment transport modelling for the south-west Australian Shelf

Marine and Freshwater Research ◽

10.1071/mf08049 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 60 (7) ◽

pp. 774 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

F. Li ◽

C. M. Griffiths ◽

C. P. Dyt ◽

P. Weill ◽

M. Feng ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sediment Transport ◽

Continental Shelf ◽

Morphological Changes ◽

High Energy ◽

Sediment Supply ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

The South ◽

South West

With increasing concerns about climate change and sea-level rise, there is a need for a comprehensive understanding of the sedimentary processes involved in the erosion, transport and deposition of sediment on the continental shelf. In the present paper, long-term and large-scale seabed morphological changes on the south-west Australian continental shelf were investigated by a comprehensive sediment transport model, Sedsim. The investigated area covers the continental shelf and abyssal basins of the south-western region. The regional seabed is sensitive to environmental forces and sediment supply, and most terrigenous sediment carried down by major rivers is trapped in inland lakes or estuaries. Only a small fraction of fine-grain sediment reaches the continental shelf. The simulation has also confirmed that the Leeuwin Current and high-energy waves play the most important roles in regional long-term seabed evolution. Although the numerical implementation only approximates some forcing and responses, it represents a significant step forward in understanding the nature of potential long-term seabed change as a response to possible climate change scenarios. The 50-year forecast on the seabed morphological changes provides a reference for the management of coastal and offshore resources, as well as infrastructure, in a sustainable way.

Download Full-text

Forecasting GNSS Zenith Troposphere Delay by Improving GPT3 Model with Machine Learning in Antarctica

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos13010078 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 13 (1) ◽

pp. 78

Author(s):

Song Li ◽

Tianhe Xu ◽

Yan Xu ◽

Nan Jiang ◽

Luísa Bastos

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Vapor ◽

Short Term Memory ◽

Global Climate ◽

Meteorological Data ◽

Water Vapor Content ◽

Tropospheric Delay ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Rbf Neural Networks ◽

Single Station

Antarctica has a significant impact on global climate change. However, to draw climate change scenarios, there is a need for meteorological data, such as water vapor content, which is scarce in Antarctica. Global navigation satellite system (GNSS) networks can play a major role in overcoming this problem as the tropospheric delay that can be derived from GNSS measurements is an important data source for monitoring the variation of water vapor content. This work intends to be a contribution for improving the estimation of the zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) obtained with the latest global pressure–temperature (GPT3) model for Antarctica through the use of long short-term-memory (LSTM) and radial basis function (RBF) neural networks for modifying GPT3_ZTD. The forecasting ZTD model is established based on the GNSS_ZTD observations at 71 GNSS stations from 1 January 2018 to 23 October 2021. According to the autocorrelation of the bias series between GNSS_ZTD and GPT3_ZTD, we predict the LSTM_ZTD for each GNSS station for period from October 2020 to October 2021 using the LSTM day by day. Based on the bias between LSTM_ZTD and GPT3_ZTD of the training stations, the RBF is adopted to estimate the LSTM_RBF_ZTD of the verified station, where the LSTM_ZTD represents the temporal forecasting ZTD at a single station, and the LSTM_RBF_ZTD represents the predicted ZTD obtained from space. Both the daily and yearly RMSE are calculated against the reference (GNSS_ZTD), and the improvement of predicted ZTD is compared with GPT3_ZTD. The results show that the single-station LSTM_ZTD series has a good agreement with the GNSS_ZTD, and most daily RMSE values are within 20 mm. The yearly RMSE of the 65 stations ranges from 6.4 mm to 32.8 mm, with an average of 10.9 mm. The overall accuracy of the LSTM_RBF_ZTD is significantly better than that of the GPT3_ZTD, with the daily RMSE of LSTM_RBF_ZTD significantly less than 30 mm, and the yearly RMSE ranging from 5.6 mm to 50.1 mm for the 65 stations. The average yearly RMSE is 15.7 mm, which is 10.2 mm less than that of the GPT3_ZTD. The LSTM_RBF_ZTD of 62 stations is more accurate than GPT3_ZTD, with the maximum improvement reaching 76.3%. The accuracy of LSTM_RBF_ZTD is slightly inferior to GPT3_ZTD at three stations located in East Antarctica with few GNSS stations. The average improvement across the 65 stations is 39.6%.

Download Full-text