scholarly journals Rainfall trends for the State of Paraná: present and future climate

Author(s):  
Luciana Espindula de Quadros ◽  
Eloy Lemos de Mello ◽  
Benedito Martins Gomes ◽  
Fernanda Cristina Araujo

This paper analyzes the variability and the precipitation trend of the State of Paraná, in Brazil. For that, monthly precipitation data belonging to 24 precipitation stations in a 30-year period (1980-2010) were analyzed and they were compared with projections of precipitation for the years 2016-2050. These data were simulated by Eta/Miroc5 for RCP 4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways) from the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies CPTEC/INPE and the historical data of precipitation were taken from National Water Agency (ANA). The Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and the Sen’s slope estimator were applied to detect trends and magnitudes, respectively. The Mann-Whitney test was used to compare the median of the historical series (1980-2010) with the simulated series (2016-2050) and the comparison of the means between the two series was performed by Test t. The results draw attention to the great variability and significant changes in the monthly average rainfall that may occur, if the climate change scenarios that were considered become a reality in the near future.

Author(s):  
I. F. F. Dos Santos ◽  
G. M. A. Almeida ◽  
F. A. B. F. De Moura

We investigate the spreading of SARS-CoV-2 in the state of Alagoas, northeast of Brazil, via an adaptive susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model featuring dynamic recuperation and propagation rates. Input parameters are defined based on data made available by Alagoas Secretary of Health from April 19, 2020 on. We provide with the evolution of the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and reproduce the historical series of the number of confirmed cases with less than [Formula: see text] error. We offer predictions, from November 16 forward, over the epidemic situation in the near future and show that it will keep decelerating. Furthermore, the same model can be used to study the epidemic dynamics in other countries with great easiness and accuracy.


Author(s):  
Nguyen Trong Vinh ◽  
Nguyen Cam Nhung

This research evaluates the efficiency of the state budget allocation in Vietnam in the period 2007-2016 by using econometric models of OLS, FEM, REM and FGLS. The estimated results from the model, together with the evaluation of the state budget allocation show that the budget allocation has achieved positive results, but the efficiency of budget allocation is still not high. Following this, the article gives some policy implications for Vietnam to effectively allocate the state budget in the near future.


2009 ◽  
Vol 160 (8) ◽  
pp. 232-234
Author(s):  
Patrik Fouvy

The history of the forests in canton Geneva, having led to these being disconnected from productive functions, provides a symptomatic demonstration that the services provided by the forest eco-system are common goods. Having no hope of financial returns in the near future and faced with increasing social demands, the state has invested in the purchase of forest land, financed projects for forest regeneration and improvement of biological diversity and developed infrastructures for visitors. In doing this the state as a public body takes on the provision of services in the public interest. But the further funding for this and for expenses for the private forests, which must be taken into account, are not secured for the future.


Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 119
Author(s):  
Pitshu Mulomba Mukadi ◽  
Concepción González-García

Time series of mean monthly temperature and total monthly precipitation are two of the climatic variables most easily obtained from weather station records. There are many studies analyzing historical series of these variables, particularly in the Spanish territory. In this study, the series of these two variables in 47 stations of the provincial capitals of mainland Spain were analyzed. The series cover time periods from the 1940s to 2013; the studies reviewed in mainland Spain go up to 2008. ARIMA models were used to represent their variation. In the preliminary phase of description and identification of the model, a study to detect possible trends in the series was carried out in an isolated manner. Significant trends were found in 15 of the temperature series, and there were trends in precipitation in only five of them. The results obtained for the trends are discussed with reference to those of other, more detailed studies in the different regions, confirming whether the same trend was maintained over time. With the ARIMA models obtained, 12-month predictions were made by measuring errors with the observed data. More than 50% of the series of both were modeled. Predictions with these models could be useful in different aspects of seasonal job planning, such as wildfires, pests and diseases, and agricultural crops.


2018 ◽  
Vol 59 ◽  
pp. 109-133
Author(s):  
Senem Aydın-Düzgit ◽  
Evren Balta

AbstractThis article aims to explore the views of the Turkish elite on the state of polarization in Turkey. By identifying four political frames—namely, harmony, continuity/decline, conspiracy, and conflict—that selected Turkish political and civil society elites use in discussing the phenomenon of polarization in the country through their contributions to a workshop and in-depth qualitative interviews, the article finds that there is a considerable degree of polarization among the Turkish elite regarding their views on the presence of polarization in Turkey. Moreover, this overlaps with the divide between the government and the opposition in the country. An analysis of the justificatory arguments employed in constituting the aforementioned frames shows that, while those elites who deny the existence of polarization seek its absence in essentialist characteristics of society, in reductionist comparisons with history, or in internal/external enemies, those who acknowledge polarization’s presence look for its roots in political and institutional factors and processes. The article highlights how, given the denial of polarization by the pro-government elite and the substantial gap between the two camps’ justificatory narratives, the currently reported high rates of polarization in Turkey can, at best, be expected to remain as is in the near future, barring a radical change in political constellations.


2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Manuela Temmer

AbstractThe Sun, as an active star, is the driver of energetic phenomena that structure interplanetary space and affect planetary atmospheres. The effects of Space Weather on Earth and the solar system is of increasing importance as human spaceflight is preparing for lunar and Mars missions. This review is focusing on the solar perspective of the Space Weather relevant phenomena, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), flares, solar energetic particles (SEPs), and solar wind stream interaction regions (SIR). With the advent of the STEREO mission (launched in 2006), literally, new perspectives were provided that enabled for the first time to study coronal structures and the evolution of activity phenomena in three dimensions. New imaging capabilities, covering the entire Sun-Earth distance range, allowed to seamlessly connect CMEs and their interplanetary counterparts measured in-situ (so called ICMEs). This vastly increased our knowledge and understanding of the dynamics of interplanetary space due to solar activity and fostered the development of Space Weather forecasting models. Moreover, we are facing challenging times gathering new data from two extraordinary missions, NASA’s Parker Solar Probe (launched in 2018) and ESA’s Solar Orbiter (launched in 2020), that will in the near future provide more detailed insight into the solar wind evolution and image CMEs from view points never approached before. The current review builds upon the Living Reviews article by Schwenn from 2006, updating on the Space Weather relevant CME-flare-SEP phenomena from the solar perspective, as observed from multiple viewpoints and their concomitant solar surface signatures.


2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Deivid Ramos dos Santos ◽  
Laura Maria Vidal Nogueira ◽  
Bárbara Lopes Paiva ◽  
Ivaneide Leal Ataide Rodrigues ◽  
Lívia Félix de Oliveira ◽  
...  

Abstract Objective: To analyze the occurrence of Maternal Mortality in general and in the indigenous population in the state of Pará. Method: A quantitative, analytical and retrospective study was performed, covering a historical series from 2005 to 2014. For the analysis of the results, non-parametric statistical tests, the Chi-square test and the G test were processed in the BioStat 5.0 software program. Results: A total of 884 maternal deaths were reported in the state of Pará, corresponding to a Mortality Rate of 60.7 per 100,000 live births for non-indigenous women and 135.8 per 100,000 live births for indigenous women. Oedema, proteinuria and hypertensive disorders in pregnancy, childbirth and puerperium corresponded to 30.5% (n = 270). Conclusion and Implications for the Practice: Maternal mortality remains a serious public health problem in the state of Pará, clearly demonstrating that indigenous pregnant women require greater care, since they showed higher Maternal Mortality Rates when compared to non-indigenous women.


2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 106-115
Author(s):  
Nataliia Zachosova ◽  
Nataliia Babina

In the conditions of the financial system destabilization in Ukraine, caused by such negative phenomenaas military actions in the East, the economic downturn, political and financial crises, population disappointment inthe institution of power and loss of the people’s confidence in power structures and so on, market mechanisms arenot able to ensure the restoration of the national financial market and to encourage its professional participantsto use mechanisms of protection their own assets and the assets of their clients from external and internal threatsactively. State interference in the functioning of financial institutions is necessary, especially for those of their types,whose bankruptcy may have fatal consequences for the welfare of the population and cause the liquidation ofeconomic entities of the domestic economy. Among them are: banks, insurance companies, credit unions, andother institutions of credit co-operation, investment companies, in particular, joint investment institutions (unit andcorporate investment funds), non-state pension funds, leasing, factoring, and other financial companies, pawns,etc. Therefore, it is expedient to consider the possibility of the influence of state regulators in financial servicesmarkets on the state of their participants’ economic security. However, the study of the realities of the financialmarket of Ukraine development has made it possible to assert that for a number of financial institutions, the conceptof economic security is something abstract, and the understanding by their top management the importanceof economic security management, taking into account the negative market trends, is completely absent.So, the purpose of this study is to diagnose the level of financial institutions preparedness for the implementationof economic security management into their common system of management. The high level of financial marketparticipants’ readiness for safe-oriented management will allow regulators to rapidly implement in their practicea list of recommendations that will minimize the threat of bankruptcy and liquidation of domestic financialinstitutions. Methodology. In the process of preparing a scientific article, a great number of literary sources wasconsidered. Some of them were developed using the method of theoretical generalization and the monographicmethod. The theoretical results presented in the research materials were obtained on the basis of the study ofworks of such scientists as Amadae S. M., Baily M. N., Elliott D. J., Ismail Z., Johnson K. N., Mirtchev A., Nelson J. A.,Raczkowski K., Schneider F., Sidek Z. M., Ula M., Whalen C. J., Wierzbicka E., Yong J. To confirm the reliability of thescientific results presented in the article, the authors used the Delphi method and expert evaluation. The list ofindicators for assessing the level of financial institutions readiness for the implementation of a mechanism formanaging economic security in the following five areas is formed. These areas are: the availability and conditionof the economic security system, the state of information and analytical support for the adoption of managementdecisions in the field of economic security, the state of intellectual and personnel management provision ofeconomic security, reserves of financial support of economic security, the level of external influence on the stateof economic security (state regulation and supervision). In May 2018, representatives of the top management ofvarious types of financial institutions, scientists, researchers, and analysts who were interested in the issues ofeconomic security management of the financial sector were interviewed. Their answers were analysed and the levelof readiness for managing the economic security of the most common types of financial institutions in the financialmarket of Ukraine was determined. Using the graphical method, the obtained scientific results are presented ina convenient and understandable form for the perception of all interested persons. Results of the survey. The necessityof carrying out diagnostics of the readiness to manage economic security at the level of state regulatory bodies andat the level of top management of financial institutions in the near future is substantiated. A large-scale analytical work was carried out on determining the parameters of financial institutions readiness for the continuous and professional economic security management, which should be carried out with the use of a systematic approach. Based on expert opinions, a preliminary assessment of the various types of financial intermediaries’ readiness to integrate security-oriented management into the financial institutions’ common management system was made. Practical implications. The proposed methodological approach for assessing the level of financial institutions readiness to manage their own economic security should be used by the state regulators of the financial market, in particular, by the National Bank of Ukraine and the National Commission, which performs state regulation in the field of financial services markets, to monitor the activities of professional financial market participants in order to conduct advisory and consultative work with their owners and managers, as well as for the development of strategic guidelines for the provision of the state financial security. It is desirable to implement into the practical activities of financial intermediaries our proposals for increasing the readiness for implementation of the economic security management mechanism in the existing systems of management. Value/originality. For the first time, a scoring methodology was prepared for assessing the level of financial institutions readiness for the implementation of economic security management as an independent direction of management, and not as one of the tasks of other types of their management activity. At the theoretical level, the substantive interpretation of the notion of the readiness of financial institutions to manage their own economic security is proposed. The reasons for the impossibility of the modern financial institutions to manage their own economic security effectively are identified, and a few suggestions to minimize their number in the near future were made.


2015 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 542
Author(s):  
José Edson Florentino de Morais ◽  
Thieres George Freire da Silva ◽  
Marcela Lúcia Barbosa ◽  
Wellington Jairo da Silva Diniz ◽  
Carlos André Alves de Souza ◽  
...  

O aumento na ocorrência de eventos climáticos extremos nas últimas décadas é uma forte evidência das mudanças climáticas. Em regiões Semiáridas, onde a pressão de desertificação tem se intensificado, são esperadas diminuição da disponibilidade de água e maior ocorrência de períodos seca, e, consequentemente, efeitos na resposta fisiológica das plantas. Assim, objetivou-se analisar os impactos dos cenários de mudanças climáticas sobre a duração do ciclo fenológico e a demanda de água do sorgo forrageiro e do feijão-caupi cultivados no Estado de Pernambuco. Foram utilizados os valores mensais da normal climatológica brilho solar, temperatura do ar, umidade relativa do ar e velocidade do vento de dez municípios. Considerou-se um aumento de 1,8°C (Cenário B2) e 4,0°C (Cenário A1F1) na temperatura do ar e um decréscimo de 5,0% dos valores absolutos de umidade relativa do ar, além do aumento de 22% na resistência estomática e de 4% no índice de área foliar. Com base nessas informações foram gerados três cenários: situação atual e projeções futuras para B2 e A1F1. Os resultados revelaram uma redução média de 11% (B2) e 20% (A1F1), e de 10% (B2) e 17% (A1F1) na duração do ciclo, e de 4% (B2) e 8% (A1F1), e 2% (B2) e 5% (A1F1) na demanda de água acumulada para o sorgo forrageiro e feijão-caupi, respectivamente. Conclui-se que a magnitude das reduções da duração do ciclo e a demanda de água simulada para as culturas do sorgo forrageiro e do feijão-caupi variaram espaço-temporalmente no Estado de Pernambuco com os cenários de mudanças climáticas.ABSTRACT The increase in the occurrence of extreme weather events in recent decades is a strong evidence of climate change. In semiarid regions, where the pressure of desertification has intensified, are expected to decrease in the availability of water and higher occurrence of drought periods, and, consequently, effects on physiological response of plants. Thus, the objective of analyzing the impacts of climate change scenarios on the duration of phenological cycle and water demand of forage sorghum and cowpea, grown in the State of Pernambuco. Monthly values were used normal climatological solar brightness, air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed of ten municipalities. It was considered an increase of 1.8° C (B2 Scenario) and 4.0° C (A1F1 Scenario) on air temperature and a decrease of 5.0% of the absolute values of relative humidity, in addition to the 22% increase in stomatal resistance and 4% in leaf area index. Based on this information were generated three scenarios: current situation and future projections for B2, A1F1. The results revealed an average reduction of 11% (B2) and 20% (A1F1), and 10% (B2) and 17% (A1F1) for the duration of the cycle, and 4% (B2) and 8% (A1F1), and 2% (B2) and 5% (A1F1) in accumulated water demand for forage sorghum and cowpea, respectively. It is concluded that the magnitude of the reductions in the duration of the cycle and the simulated water demand for crops of forage sorghum and cowpea ranged space-temporarily in the State of Pernambuco with climate change scenarios.


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