The Voting Behavior of the European Parliament Members on Turkish Accession: A Quantitative Analysis of a Special Status Amendment Vote on Turkey

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 564-580 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdullah Yuvaci
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Analysis ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
European Parliament

Disengaging elections? Political interest, number of elections, and turnout in elections to the European Parliament

2021 ◽  
pp. 146511652199845
Author(s):  
Jeffrey Nonnemacher
Keyword(s):  
Political Behavior ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
National Study ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Multi Level ◽  
European Election ◽  
Using Data ◽  
European Parliament Elections ◽  
Cross National Study

Since direct elections to the European Parliament began in 1979, variations in voting behavior in European Parliament elections from national elections have raised interesting questions about political behavior. I add to a growing literature that explores turnout in European Parliament elections by focusing on the count of national elections between European Parliament elections. Through a cross-national study of elections, I find that turnout decreases in the European Parliament contest following cycles with numerous national contests. Then, using data from the European Election Study, I argue that this is the result of frequent elections decreasing turnout particularly among already low interest voters who stay home. My findings have implications for how formal rules of multi-level elections shape political behavior more generally and voter fatigue in particular.

“New Political History”: Some Statistical Questions Raised

1981 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 171-196
Author(s):  
William G. Shade
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Analysis ◽  
Small Group ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Political History ◽  
Historical Research ◽  
Technical Innovation ◽  
Critical Commentary ◽  
History Of

In the last two decades, the most interesting new perspectives on the history of American voting behavior have come from a small group of historians writing what Bogue (1968) termed the “New Political History.” While members of this group have been characterized by theoretical and methodological concerns that transcend their interest in quantitative analysis, they have emphasized the use of statistics in historical research. At first, this technical innovation awed traditional historians and limited critical commentary on the techniques employed by the “new” historians. Recently, however, both the substantive findings and the methods of these historians have received increasing scrutiny Wright, 1973; McCormick, 1974; Kousser, 1976).

Explaining Vote Switching Across First- and Second-Order Elections

2005 ◽  
Vol 38 (3) ◽  
pp. 260-281 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cliff Carrubba ◽  
Richard J. Timpone
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
Second Order ◽  
Policy Outcomes ◽  
European Context ◽  
European Parliament Elections ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Western Democracies

Across Western democracies, individuals frequently vote for different parties in different elections. A variety of explanations have been proposed for this behavior. In the European context, scholars have focused on the idea that individuals may vote for different parties because some elections are less important than others (i.e., are “second-order” elections). In the U.S. context, scholars have focused on the possibility that individuals might vote for different parties because they care about how the two chambers will affect policy outcomes. In this article, the authors test among four alternative motivations for vote switching, two predicated on the notion that individuals treat one of the elections as second-order and two predicated on the notion that individuals care about policy outcomes from both chambers. The tests are performed by analyzing Euro-barometer survey data on individual voting behavior in European national and European Parliament elections. The authors find support for all four motivations.

scholarly journals How Campaigns Enhance European Issues Voting During European Parliament Elections

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 791-808 ◽  
Author(s):  
Derek Beach ◽  
Kasper M. Hansen ◽  
Martin V. Larsen
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
Cross Sectional Survey ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Campaign Effects ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Voter Decision Making ◽  
The One ◽  
European Parliament Elections ◽  
The Impact

Based on findings from the literature on campaign effects on the one hand, and the literature on European Parliament elections on the other, we propose a model of European Parliamentary elections in which the campaign shift the calculus of electoral support, making differences in national political allegiances less important and attitudes about the European project more important by informing voters of and getting them interested in European politics. In effect, we argue that the political campaign leading up to the election makes European Parliament elections less second order. While previous studies have demonstrated that EU issues can matter for voting behavior in European Parliament elections, existing research has drawn on post-election surveys that do not enable us to capture campaign effects. Our contribution is to assess the impact of a campaign by utilizing a rolling cross-sectional survey that enables us to track how voters were affected by the campaign. Our findings show that campaigns do have an effect on European Parliament election outcomes, in that they provide information that enables voters to make decisions based on their attitude on European issues, making voter decision-making more dominated by EU issue voting.

Ideas, Interests, and Politics in the Case of Belgian Corn Law Repeal, 1834–1873

2011 ◽  
Vol 71 (1) ◽  
pp. 185-210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maarten Van Dijck ◽  
Tom Truyts
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Analysis ◽  
Qualitative Analysis ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Political Strategy ◽  
Party Affiliation ◽  
Economic Interests ◽  
Corn Laws

Economic interests, ideas, and politics have been put forward as explanations for the Repeal of the British Corn Laws. This article evaluates these competing explanations using the case of the Belgian Corn Laws between 1834 and 1873. A detailed quantitative analysis assesses the success of party affiliation and personal and constituency economic interests in predicting representatives' voting behavior. These factors prove to be insufficient to explain the shift towards free trade. This article then moves on to a qualitative analysis, which points to the importance of political strategy and ideas in the liberalization of corn tariffs.

scholarly journals Twitter jako narzędzie zarządzania wizerunkiem

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 507-533
Author(s):  
Wojciech Maguś
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Analysis ◽  
Political Communication ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
National Election ◽  
Management Tool ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Image Management ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Image Creation

Twitter as an Image Management Tool Twitter is becoming an increasingly popular tool used for political communication, especially in election campaigns. It is also an important element of image creation. Due to its functionalities, it allows for quick, low-cost reaching of recipients. As part of the article, over 130,000 entries from the period of the 2019 European Parliament election campaign in Poland were subject to quantitative analysis. The activity of 397 people running from six national election committees was analyzed. Every second candidate applying for a mandate as an MEP used this service. The article is an attempt to answer whether and to what extent popularity on Twitter translated into the electoral result.

scholarly journals European Affiliations or National Interests? Analyses of Voting Patterns on Trade Policy in European Parliament

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 19-48
Author(s):  
Yoo-Duk Kang
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
Probit Model ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
Political Affiliation ◽  
National Interests ◽  
Members Of European Parliament ◽  
Political Groups ◽  
Country Specific

Abstract This article examines the determinants of voting patterns within the European Parliament for EU trade legislations including EU trade agreements. Given that trade is a very sensitive issue for particular Member States, our question is to verify whether members of European Parliament (MEP) tend to vote in line with their political affiliation or national identity prevails in voting for trade-related issues. Our results from EU trade agreements with Korea and Columbia/Peru show that MEPs tend to vote with others in their political groups in trade legislations and their voting pattern is not very different from the overall voting pattern observed in other policy areas. This trend is confirmed by both the comparison of intra-voting cohesion index and the empirical test based on the probit model. Country-specific variables do not explain well the voting behavior of MEPs in trade issues. However, it is noteworthy that some MEPs voted in line with their national interests in case of EU-Korea FTA.

EXPLAINING ELECTIONS IN SINGAPORE: DOMINANT PARTY RESILIENCE AND VALENCE POLITICS

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 129-156 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Oliver ◽  
Kai Ostwald
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Analysis ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
High Capacity ◽  
General Election ◽  
Dominant Party ◽  
Voter Preferences ◽  
Comparative Advantages ◽  
Dominant Parties ◽  
Main Factor ◽  
Valence Politics

AbstractThe People's Action Party (PAP) of Singapore is one of the world's longest ruling dominant parties, having won every general election since the country's independence in 1965. Why do Singaporeans consistently vote for the PAP, contrary to the expectations of democratization theories? We argue that valence considerations—specifically, perceptions of party credibility—are the main factor in the voting behavior of Singapore's electorate, and are critical to explaining the PAP's resilience. Furthermore, we argue that the primacy of valence politics arose in part by design, as the PAP has used its control of Singapore's high-capacity state to reshape society and thereby reshape voter preferences towards its comparative advantages. We use a multi-methods approach to substantiate this argument, including a comprehensive quantitative analysis of recent elections. Ultimately, our findings suggest that a focus on valence politics can increase the resilience of dominant parties, but that such a strategy also faces natural limits.

scholarly journals Agencies’ Reputational Game in an Evolving Environment: Europol and the European Parliament

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 85-95
Author(s):  
Agathe Piquet
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Quantitative Analysis ◽  
Qualitative Study ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
European Governance ◽  
Communicative Strategies ◽  
The Face ◽  
Over Time

With European Union agencies becoming increasingly significant actors in European governance, further research is needed to understand how they interact with their environment. Applying the ‘reputation’ literature to Europol, this article examines in greater detail how agencies behave with their ‘informal’ audiences in comparison with the formal ones. It demonstrates that agencies are deeply invested in the shaping of their reputation, including towards their informal audiences especially if the latter represent ‘reputational threats.’ Based on a quantitative analysis of activity reports and on a qualitative study of the face-to-face engagements of Europol with the European Parliament over time, this research sheds light on the complementary communicative strategies agencies can use to (re)present themselves depending on the dimension of their reputation at stake.

scholarly journals Exploring the Political Agenda of the European Parliament Using a Dynamic Topic Modeling Approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-94 ◽  
Author(s):  
Derek Greene ◽  
James P. Cross
Keyword(s):  
Topic Modeling ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
English Language ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
Political Agenda ◽  
The Political ◽  
Euro Crisis ◽  
Speech Content ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Non Negative Matrix Factorization

This study analyzes the political agenda of the European Parliament (EP) plenary, how it has evolved over time, and the manner in which Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) have reacted to external and internal stimuli when making plenary speeches. To unveil the plenary agenda and detect latent themes in legislative speeches over time, MEP speech content is analyzed using a new dynamic topic modeling method based on two layers of Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF). This method is applied to a new corpus of all English language legislative speeches in the EP plenary from the period 1999 to 2014. Our findings suggest that two-layer NMF is a valuable alternative to existing dynamic topic modeling approaches found in the literature, and can unveil niche topics and associated vocabularies not captured by existing methods. Substantively, our findings suggest that the political agenda of the EP evolves significantly over time and reacts to exogenous events such as EU Treaty referenda and the emergence of the Euro Crisis. MEP contributions to the plenary agenda are also found to be impacted upon by voting behavior and the committee structure of the Parliament.

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