6. Our future atmosphere

2017 ◽  
pp. 113-120
Author(s):  
Paul I. Palmer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
The Future ◽  
Scientific Technical ◽  
Global Economic Growth ◽  
Earth’S Climate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Binding Agreement

There is still much about Earth’s atmosphere we do not fully understand, which limits our ability to predict large-scale changes to the atmosphere. As Earth’s climate changes new scientific challenges will emerge that need to be addressed with new measurements and models. These challenges have implications for assessing the impact of future global economic growth and mitigating humanitarian risks. ‘Our future atmosphere’ outlines some of the future scientific, technical, and philosophical challenges we face. These include our responses to the changes in natural and anthropogenic-driven climate change, facing future unknown challenges, using improvements in technology to address the scientific challenges, and aiming for an international legally binding agreement on atmosphere policy.

Climate Change and the Future of Taste

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 14-20
Author(s):  
michele field
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Basmati Rice ◽  
Narrow Focus ◽  
The Future ◽  
Rainfall Patterns ◽  
The Impact

Until now, the impact of the expected climate changes on food has been almost entirely about crop yields, and fantasies about how olives might flourish in Oklahoma. This piece takes a narrow focus, asking how the changes in rainfall patterns and temperatures will possibly affect what a tomato tastes like, or whether the ““beef”” that our children enjoy will be too different for us to enjoy. Many important changes will be to the flavors of fish (already most palates can taste a difference between wild shrimp and farmed) and those foods relying on fragile herbs and flavors like vanilla. If food scenarios become very bad, no one is going to die from the loss of genuine basmati rice, but it is important to anticipate what we will lose. And enjoy it while we can.

scholarly journals Towards a reflective and multiscale optimism

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. v-vi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Human Capacity ◽  
Global Economic Growth

In any region of the world, in any country, each beginning of the year offers us a scenario for potential changes, purposes, goals and hopes, and 2019 does not have to be the exception. Despite various forecasts of slower global economic growth in the coming year (World Bank, Forbes, Reuters), and despite the latest reports from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on stressful atmospheric conditions, among other environmental discomforts around the planet, we cannot limit our human capacity to see the future with courage and optimism.

scholarly journals Global warming and other climate change phenomena on the geological time scale

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (Suppl. 5) ◽  
pp. 1435-1455
Author(s):  
Miodrag Mesarovic
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Geological Time ◽  
Geological Time Scale ◽  
The Future ◽  
Entire History ◽  
Past Climate Change ◽  
Earth’S Climate

Global warming and other climate change phenomena became a worldwide exploited subject over recent decades. World science has made enormous progress in understanding past climate change and its causes, and continues to study current and potential impacts that will affect people in the future. All scientists agree that the Earth's climate is changing due to natural phenomena, and most of them argue that human activities are increasing the greenhouse effect, while some scientists attribute climate changes exclusively to the natural causes. Though there still is, and always will be, need for multiple lines of research on an extremely complex system like Earth's climate is, an immediate consensus is crucial for decision-makers to place climate change in the context of other large challenges facing the world today. This paper discusses the existing body of evidence on climate changes in the past, and uncertainties that prevent scientists to reach full consensus on how climate might change in the future. It extends the time scale of climate changes over the entire history of Earth to help better understanding of hypothetical changes and their consequences that could be expected both in the near and in a very distant future.

scholarly journals Climate Change, Its Impacts and Possible Measures in Slovakia

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (s1) ◽  
pp. 90-96
Author(s):  
Milan Lapin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Development ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Physical Models ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The Future ◽  
Natural Climate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Further Development

Abstract Total climate changes are a combination of climate changes due to human activities and climate changes of natural origin. Further development of climate change can be predicted, if we know the future development of GHG emission into the atmosphere and other human interventions with the world climate system. The future development in natural climate changes cannot be reliably predicted. It is very probable that climate change caused by humans will be much more significant than the natural climate changes, already from 2020. It is almost certain that the concentration of GHG in the Earth’s atmosphere will rise further for at least 100 years. The climate change scenarios can be prepared, according to the outputs of General Earth’s atmospheric circulation physical models (GCM). Adapting and mitigation measures projection to utilise or slow down the impact of the expected climate change are the next steps of the climate change issues solving.

On the Rainfall Induced Shallow and Deep-seated Landslide Hazard in Central Taiwan

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keh-Jian Shou
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Slope Angle ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Tectonic Activity ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

<p>Due to active tectonic activity, the rock formations are young and highly fractured in Taiwan area. The dynamic changing of river morphology makes the highly weathered formations or colluviums prone to landslide and debris flow. In addition, due to the impact of 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, the hazards of landslides and debris flows were significantly increased. For the past decade, the effect of climate change is significant and creates more and more extreme weather events. The change of rainfall behavior significantly changes the landslide behavior, which makes the large-scale landslides, like the Shiaolin landslide, possible. Therefore, it is necessary to develop the new technologies for large-scale landslide investigation, monitoring, analysis, early warning, etc.</p><p>Since the landslide hazards are mainly induced by heavy rainfall, due to climate change and the subsequent extreme weather events, the probability of large-scale landslides is also increased. Focusing on the slate formation area in the upstreams of the Tachia River, Wu River, and Chuoshui River, this project studied the behavior and hazard of shallow and deep-seated landslides. This study adopts the SHALSTAB model with the consideration of slope angle to classify the landslides, and then established the landslide susceptibility models based on the classified landslide inventories. Different types of susceptibility models in different catchment scales were tested, in which the control factors were analyzed and discussed. This study also employs rainfall frequency analysis together with the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) downscaling estimation to predict the extreme rainfalls in the future. Such that the future hazard of the shallow and deep-seated landslide in the study area can be predicted. The results of predictive analysis can be applied for risk prevention and management in the study area.</p>

scholarly journals The Impact of Human Pressure and Climate Change on the Habitat Availability and Protection of Cypripedium (Orchidaceae) in Northeast China

Plants ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 84
Author(s):  
Huanchu Liu ◽  
Hans Jacquemyn ◽  
Xingyuan He ◽  
Wei Chen ◽  
Yanqing Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Northeast China ◽  
Habitat Destruction ◽  
Changbai Mountains ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Human Pressure ◽  
Terrestrial Orchids ◽  
The Future ◽  
Suitable Habitats ◽  
The Impact

Human pressure on the environment and climate change are two important factors contributing to species decline and overall loss of biodiversity. Orchids may be particularly vulnerable to human-induced losses of habitat and the pervasive impact of global climate change. In this study, we simulated the extent of the suitable habitat of three species of the terrestrial orchid genus Cypripedium in northeast China and assessed the impact of human pressure and climate change on the future distribution of these species. Cypripedium represents a genus of long-lived terrestrial orchids that contains several species with great ornamental value. Severe habitat destruction and overcollection have led to major population declines in recent decades. Our results showed that at present the most suitable habitats of the three species can be found in Da Xing’an Ling, Xiao Xing’an Ling and in the Changbai Mountains. Human activity was predicted to have the largest impact on species distributions in the Changbai Mountains. In addition, climate change was predicted to lead to a shift in distribution towards higher elevations and to an increased fragmentation of suitable habitats of the three investigated Cypripedium species in the study area. These results will be valuable for decision makers to identify areas that are likely to maintain viable Cypripedium populations in the future and to develop conservation strategies to protect the remaining populations of these enigmatic orchid species.

scholarly journals Impact of air–sea coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alba de la Vara ◽  
William Cabos ◽  
Dmitry V. Sein ◽  
Claas Teichmann ◽  
Daniela Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Distribution ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
The North ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn this work we use a regional atmosphere–ocean coupled model (RAOCM) and its stand-alone atmospheric component to gain insight into the impact of atmosphere–ocean coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The IP climate is influenced by both the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean sea. Complex interactions with the orography take place there and high-resolution models are required to realistically reproduce its current and future climate. We find that under the RCP8.5 scenario, the generalized 2-m air temperature (T2M) increase by the end of the twenty-first century (2070–2099) in the atmospheric-only simulation is tempered by the coupling. The impact of coupling is specially seen in summer, when the warming is stronger. Precipitation shows regionally-dependent changes in winter, whilst a drier climate is found in summer. The coupling generally reduces the magnitude of the changes. Differences in T2M and precipitation between the coupled and uncoupled simulations are caused by changes in the Atlantic large-scale circulation and in the Mediterranean Sea. Additionally, the differences in projected changes of T2M and precipitation with the RAOCM under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios are tackled. Results show that in winter and summer T2M increases less and precipitation changes are of a smaller magnitude with the RCP4.5. Whilst in summer changes present a similar regional distribution in both runs, in winter there are some differences in the NW of the IP due to differences in the North Atlantic circulation. The differences in the climate change signal from the RAOCM and the driving Global Coupled Model show that regionalization has an effect in terms of higher resolution over the land and ocean.

scholarly journals Application of SWAT in Hydrological Simulation of Complex Mountainous River Basin (Part II: Climate Change Impact Assessment)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1548
Author(s):  
Suresh Marahatta ◽  
Deepak Aryal ◽  
Laxmi Prasad Devkota ◽  
Utsav Bhattarai ◽  
Dibesh Shrestha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mountainous River

This study aims at analysing the impact of climate change (CC) on the river hydrology of a complex mountainous river basin—the Budhigandaki River Basin (BRB)—using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model that was calibrated and validated in Part I of this research. A relatively new approach of selecting global climate models (GCMs) for each of the two selected RCPs, 4.5 (stabilization scenario) and 8.5 (high emission scenario), representing four extreme cases (warm-wet, cold-wet, warm-dry, and cold-dry conditions), was applied. Future climate data was bias corrected using a quantile mapping method. The bias-corrected GCM data were forced into the SWAT model one at a time to simulate the future flows of BRB for three 30-year time windows: Immediate Future (2021–2050), Mid Future (2046–2075), and Far Future (2070–2099). The projected flows were compared with the corresponding monthly, seasonal, annual, and fractional differences of extreme flows of the simulated baseline period (1983–2012). The results showed that future long-term average annual flows are expected to increase in all climatic conditions for both RCPs compared to the baseline. The range of predicted changes in future monthly, seasonal, and annual flows shows high uncertainty. The comparative frequency analysis of the annual one-day-maximum and -minimum flows shows increased high flows and decreased low flows in the future. These results imply the necessity for design modifications in hydraulic structures as well as the preference of storage over run-of-river water resources development projects in the study basin from the perspective of climate resilience.

scholarly journals China’s Investments in Germany and the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 56 (2) ◽  
pp. 113-119
Author(s):  
Xinming Xia ◽  
Wan-Hsin Liu
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Know How ◽  
Advanced Technologies ◽  
The Future ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Chinese State ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Gain Access ◽  
Over Time

AbstractThis paper analyses how China’s investments in Germany have developed over time and the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in this regard, based on four different datasets, including our own survey in mid-2020. Our analysis shows that Germany is currently one of the most attractive investment destinations for Chinese investors. Chinese state-owned enterprises have played an important role as investors in Germany — particularly in large-scale projects. The COVID-19 pandemic has had some negative but rather temporary effects on Chinese investments in Germany. Germany is expected to stay attractive to Chinese investors who seek to gain access to advanced technologies and know-how in the future.

scholarly journals How will future climate depending agronomic management impact the yield risk of wheat cropping systems? A regional case study of Eastern Denmark

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
J. Macholdt ◽  
J. Glerup Gyldengren ◽  
E. Diamantopoulos ◽  
M. E. Styczen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Cropping Systems ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Catch Crops ◽  
Agronomic Management ◽  
The Future ◽  
Yield Risk ◽  
Management Factors ◽  
The Impact

Abstract One of the major challenges in agriculture is how climate change influences crop production, for different environmental (soil type, topography, groundwater depth, etc.) and agronomic management conditions. Through systems modelling, this study aims to quantify the impact of future climate on yield risk of winter wheat for two common soil types of Eastern Denmark. The agro-ecosystem model DAISY was used to simulate arable, conventional cropping systems (CSs) and the study focused on the three main management factors: cropping sequence, usage of catch crops and cereal straw management. For the case region of Eastern Denmark, the future yield risk of wheat does not necessarily increase under climate change mainly due to lower water stress in the projections; rather, it depends on appropriate management and each CS design. Major management factors affecting the yield risk of wheat were N supply and the amount of organic material added during rotations. If a CS is characterized by straw removal and no catch crop within the rotation, an increased wheat yield risk must be expected in the future. In contrast, more favourable CSs, including catch crops and straw incorporation, maintain their capacity and result in a decreasing yield risk over time. Higher soil organic matter content, higher net nitrogen mineralization rate and higher soil organic nitrogen content were the main underlying causes for these positive effects. Furthermore, the simulation results showed better N recycling and reduced nitrate leaching for the more favourable CSs, which provide benefits for environment-friendly and sustainable crop production.

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