Future Trade Relations between Canada and the United Kingdom

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
C M Armand de Mestral

Abstract Canada’s trade relations with the UK have been governed by the CETA since the signature of that agreement with the EU in October 2016. Subsequent to the decision of the UK electorate to leave the EU, it became necessary to envisage the creation of a new trade agreement directly between the UK and Canada. Initially, the Government of Canada indicated a willingness to negotiate a new trade agreement with the UK as quickly as possible. But, as the future relationship of the UK to the EU became increasingly uncertain, the Government of Canada decided to hold back until greater clarity could be obtained. As of July 2020, Canada was still waiting. The future trade agreement will reflect the desire of both countries to maintain their long-standing and close relationship. Both have strong interests in trade and investment with the other and both will seek to reinforce these interests. The particular concerns of both countries are outlined in this paper and the outlines of a future trade agreement are set out. In conclusion, the author suggests that it would be in the interests of the UK, rather than seeking simply a bilateral agreement, to seek to negotiate an Atlantic Free Trade Agreement, thereby clarifying its relations not simply with Canada but with all of Europe and North America.

2020 ◽  
pp. 002201832097753
Author(s):  
Gemma Davies ◽  
Paul Arnell

The Republic of Ireland and the United Kingdom have a long, close and difficult history. The most recent phase of which dates from 1998 and the conclusion of the Good Friday Agreement. Since 1921, however, there has been unique practice between Ireland and the UK as regards the transfer of accused and convicted persons from one to the other. Indeed, there has been a special and close relationship between the two in that regard; albeit one not without difficulties. In recent times EU Justice and Home Affairs measures and the Good Friday Agreement have supplemented and strengthened the relationship. These include, since January 2004, the European Arrest Warrant (EAW). The EAW has been particularly important in streamlining the extradition process between the Ireland and the UK. This phase of history and co-operation is coming to an end. The UK’s membership of the EU has now ceased, and a transition period during which the UK remains part of the EAW will end on 31st December 2020. The extradition relationship between the two is therefore facing a considerable challenge. There are several options open to Ireland, the UK and the EU as a replacement. Time, political will and the interests of third states, however, may well stand in the way of the conclusion of an agreement that optimally serves the interests of all parties and criminal justice. This paper considers the origins of extradition between the UK and Ireland and the alternative methods of extradition open to the UK and Ireland after Brexit. Consideration is given to the likely operation of a Norway-Iceland style agreement and whether such an agreement will be in place by the end of the transition and, if it was, whether its terms are likely to be sufficient for the needs of Ireland and the UK. The possibility of a bilateral arrangement on extradition between Ireland and the UK is also explored. Underlying the discussion is the critical point that the future extradition relationship must retain its ‘special’ characteristics, and therefore maintain the trust and good will that has developed over the years and given rise to an effective extradition relationship between the two countries. In other words, the lessons of history must be remembered.


Author(s):  
Paola Mariani ◽  
Giorgio Sacerdoti

This chapter examines the negotiations on the future relations between the UK and the EU. The UK left the EU on the basis of a Withdrawal Agreement, which includes an obligation to negotiate in good faith the future relationship between the parties. The framework for future cooperation is outlined in a non-binding Political Declaration attached to the Withdrawal Agreement. This foresees the conclusion after the end of the transition period of a free trade agreement. However, the parties’ respective negotiating directives and guidelines, made public in February of 2020, show a remarkable gap in objectives and features of the future agreement, to the point that a failure of the negotiations and a no-deal Brexit is still a possibility. The chapter then considers the provisions of the Withdrawal Agreement impacting the future EU–UK relations, namely Article 184 and the Protocol on Northern Ireland that already foresees rules applying between the parties post-transition, with respect to Northern Ireland. It also reflects on the challenges the UK faces in negotiating trade agreements with the EU while also doing so with the rest of the world.


2019 ◽  

The exit of the United Kingdom from the EU represents the first large-scale reversal of European integration. It will, in particular, have an appreciable impact on the trade relations with the European continent. This edited volume brings together contributions from leading economists and legal scholars that raise crucial questions and challenges with respect to the Brexit negotiations. In doing so, the contributions do not only look at the withdrawal agreement but, beyond that, at the future trade relations between the UK and the EU after the entry into force of a possible withdrawal agreement. The authors are driven by the conviction that the future relationship between EU and UK shall allow the utmost possible degree of economic freedoms in the benefit of both sides, taking into account political restraints deriving from UK to meet the main objectives of the Brexit campaign and addressing the special circumstance of the Northern Irish peace process, and from the EU, preventing the emergence of incentives to destabilise the European integration. Against this background, the contributions develop realistic solutions which can serve as a reliable model for the negotiation process.


This book provides the first comprehensive analysis of the withdrawal agreement concluded between the United Kingdom and the European Union to create the legal framework for Brexit. Building on a prior volume, it overviews the process of Brexit negotiations that took place between the UK and the EU from 2017 to 2019. It also examines the key provisions of the Brexit deal, including the protection of citizens’ rights, the Irish border, and the financial settlement. Moreover, the book assesses the governance provisions on transition, decision-making and adjudication, and the prospects for future EU–UK trade relations. Finally, it reflects on the longer-term challenges that the implementation of the 2016 Brexit referendum poses for the UK territorial system, for British–Irish relations, as well as for the future of the EU beyond Brexit.


Author(s):  
Aldona Zawojska

The article is a contribution to the discussion on the anticipated consequences of the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union for Poland’s trade relations with this country, with particular emphasis on the likely impacts of a hard or no-deal Brexit on Polish exporters. Its aim is to provide readers with an understanding of how agri-food flows between Poland and the UK (especially Poland’s exports) could be affected once the UK departs the EU. The question is important considering that, in recent years, the UK has been the second biggest importer and a net importer of agricultural and food products from Poland. The study is based on trade data from the UN Comtrade Database and Poland’s Central Statistical Office, and on tariff data from the UK’s Department for International Trade. Taking into account the possible imposition of customs duties announced thus far by the British government on the import of agri-food products from third countries in the event of a no-trade agreement with the EU, the introduction of additional non-tariff barriers, as well as increased transactional (friction) costs and complexity of doing business with foreign partners, a hard Brexit would have serious implications for Poland’s fast growing agri-food exports to the UK. It would even lead to a collapse of some Polish supplies, particularly of meat and dairy commodities, to Great Britain. The loss of two-way preferences in trade now arising from participation in the EU single market will undermine the competitiveness of Polish producers on UK’s market both against British producers and lower cost exporters from outside the EU.


Significance The minority Socialist Party (PSOE) - Unidas Podemos (UP) government needed the support of several left-wing and pro-independence parties to get the budget through. Its approval makes early elections unlikely and gives the government a better chance to shape the COVID-19 economic recovery and implement some of its 2019 electoral pledges. Impacts Spain’s poor record in absorbing EU funds suggests it will struggle to make the most of the EU recovery fund. The weakening of the UK currency will hurt Spanish exports to the United Kingdom, especially with fewer UK tourists coming to Spain. Greater political stability will enable Spain to pursue a more assertive foreign policy.


Author(s):  
Ananieva Elena

Prime Minister T. May has put forward the concept of "Global Britain". After the United Kingdom had left the EU, the concept was formalized under the government of Boris Johnson in the document “Integrated Review of Security, Defense, Development and Foreign Policy "Global Britain in a Competitive Age"”. The article presents an analysis of its goals, methods and practical implementation. Britain, realizing itself as a "middle power", intends to build a system of alliances to counter China and Russia, the latter designated as an ”acute direct threat” to the UK.


2018 ◽  
Vol 54 (2) ◽  
pp. 99-109
Author(s):  
Jakub Borowski ◽  
Jakub Olipra ◽  
Paweł Błaszyński

Abstract The decision of the United Kingdom (UK) to leave the European Union (EU) is unprecedented, especially considering the recent trend in the global economy toward economic integration. There is a multitude of research concerning the implications of economic integration; however, research in the field of disintegration is scarce. Brexit serves as an interesting case study to investigate the effects of economic disintegration. The implications for trade are especially fascinating as trade liberalization is one of the most important benefits of economic integration. Existing studies focus mainly on Brexit’s impact on the UK’s exports and imports, while less attention has been paid to Brexit’s effects on the trade of other countries. The main objective of our research is to estimate Brexit’s influence on Polish exports. We present several possible scenarios of future trade relations between the UK and the EU and assume that, at least in the nearest-future post-Brexit scenario, trade under the World Trade Organization rules is most likely. This will result in the imposition of tariffs on trade between the UK and the EU members, including Poland. In our research, we used the real exchange rate of the Polish zloty against the British pound as a proxy for the changes in price competitiveness of Polish exports due to the imposition of tariffs. We find that in the first year after Brexit, the dynamics of Polish exports to the UK will decrease due to the imposition of customs duties by 1.3 percentage points (pp) and by 0.1 pp when it comes to total Polish exports. This paper contributes to the discussion on the effects of disintegration on trade. We propose a new method for assessing changes in trade volume due to increase of trade barriers.


2014 ◽  
pp. 116-131
Author(s):  
Beata Słupek

The subject of this publication is the scepticism regarding the future of the European Union in the UK. The research is based on Eurobarometer surveys conducted over the period of five years. A purpose of the research is to show the relationship between the results of the Eurobarometer survey on the future of the EU, and the eurosceptic views in the UK. The main research questions is: is the UK sceptical about the future of the EU? Hypothesis of this publication is that the UK is sceptical about the future of the European Union. The reasons for such attitudes are not analysed here – the article is merely an attempt to present the societal attitudes. The research method employed is the comparative critical analysis of quantitative data. The conclusion is that Great Britain is not significantly eurosceptic. British people are, however, less enthusiastic about what is happening at present in the EU, and also are showing greater anxieties when it comes to the future of the EU.


2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 77-81
Author(s):  
P. Yu. Baryshnikov

This article presents an analysis of the main provisions of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) signed by the government of Canada and the European Parliament at the end of 2016. In particular, the author analysed such aspects of the agreement as the abolition of customs tariffs, the introduction of common quality standards, access to the procurement market, modification of the system of investment disputes, etc. According to the results of the study, there was a mixed effect of the agreement for both Canada and the EU. For some sectors of the economies of the participating countries, the implementation of the CETA promises to create exceptional conditions for development, while for others the signing of a multilateral agreement is unprofitable or means losses. It should be noted that at the present stage the pros and cons of the СЕТА can be considered only at the theoretical level. It will be possible to draw objective conclusions about the impact of the multilateral trade agreement on the development of trade and economic relations between the countries only a certain time later after the ratification of the agreement by all parties. At the current stage of development of Canada-EU relations within the framework of the СЕТА, it can be noted that only the dynamic development and further improvement of the mechanisms of the multilateral agreement will make a trade and economic relations between the countries more open and transparent.


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