scholarly journals SARS-CoV-2 Cumulative Incidence and Period Seroprevalence: Results from a Statewide Population-Based Serosurvey in California

Author(s):  
Katherine Lamba ◽  
Heather Bradley ◽  
Kayoko Shioda ◽  
Patrick S Sullivan ◽  
Nicole Luisi ◽  
...  

Abstract Background California has reported the largest number of COVID-19 cases of any U.S. state, with more than 3.5 million confirmed as of March 2021. However, the full breadth of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in California is unknown since reported cases only represent a fraction of all infections. Methods We conducted a population-based serosurvey, utilizing mailed, home-based SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing along with a demographic and behavioral survey. We weighted data from a random sample to represent the adult California population and estimated period seroprevalence overall and by participant characteristics. Seroprevalence estimates were adjusted for waning antibodies to produce statewide estimates of cumulative incidence, the infection fatality ratio (IFR), and the reported fraction. Results California’s SARS-CoV-2 weighted seroprevalence during August–December 2020 was 4.6% (95% CI: 2.8–7.4%). Estimated cumulative incidence as of November 2, 2020 was 8.7% (95% CrI: 6.4%–11.5%), indicating 2,660,441 adults (95% CrI: 1,959,218–3,532,380) had been infected. The estimated IFR was 0.8% (95% CrI: 0.6%–1.0%), and the estimated percentage of infections reported to the California Department of Public Health was 31%. Disparately high risk for infection was observed among persons of Hispanic/Latinx ethnicity and people with no health insurance and who reported working outside the home. Conclusions We present the first statewide SARS-CoV-2 cumulative incidence estimate among adults in California. As of November 2020, approximately one in three SARS-CoV-2 infections in California adults had been identified by public health surveillance. When accounting for unreported SARS-CoV-2 infections, disparities by race/ethnicity seen in case-based surveillance persist.

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S435-S435
Author(s):  
Louise Hawkley ◽  
Phil Schumm ◽  
Elbert Huang ◽  
Martha McClintock

Abstract The epidemic increase in diabetes prevalence (primarily type 2) is a public health crisis. We hypothesized that the rates of movement among diabetic states depend in part on one’s social relationships and environment. Using population-based samples from both NSHAP and HRS, collected in 2005–15, we found that having more friends was associated with a lower risk for acquiring diabetes over the next 4-5 years. As an independent replication, separate logistic models for NSHAP and HRS data yielded similar odds-ratios for the protective effect of having friends (OR = 0.82 and 0.92 respectively), adjusting for gender, age, race/ethnicity, and BMI. This effect was concentrated entirely between 0–4 friends; differences in the number of friends above 4 were not associated with differences in diabetes risk.


2020 ◽  
pp. e1-e8
Author(s):  
Alfredo Morabia

Between November 20, 1918, and March 12, 1919, the US Public Health Service carried out a vast population-based survey to assess the incidence rate and mortality of the influenza pandemic among 146 203 persons in 18 localities across the United States. The survey attempted to retrospectively assess all self-reported or diagnosed cases of influenza since August 1, 1918. It indicated that the cumulative incidence of symptomatic influenza over 6 months had been 29.4% (range = 15% in Louisville, KY, to 53.3% in San Antonio, TX). The overall case fatality rate (CFR) was 1.70%, and it ranged from 0.78% in San Antonio to 3.14% in New London, Connecticut. Localities with high cumulative incidence were not necessarily those with high CFR. Overall, assuming the survey missed asymptomatic cases, between August 1, 1918, and February 21, 1919, maybe more than 50% of the population was infected, and about 1% of the infected died. Eight months into the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States has not yet launched a survey that would provide population-based estimates of incidence and CFRs analogous to those generated by the 1918 US Public Health Service house-to-house canvass survey of influenza. Published online ahead of print December 8, 2020: 1–8. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2020.306025 )


Author(s):  
Kengo Inagaki ◽  
Chad Blackshear ◽  
Paul A Burns ◽  
Charlotte V Hobbs

Abstract Background Race/ethnicity is currently not considered a risk factor for bronchiolitis, except for indigenous populations in western countries. A better understanding of the potential impact of race/ethnicity can inform programs, policy and practice related to bronchiolitis. Methods We performed a population-based longitudinal observational study using the State Inpatient Database from New York state in the United States. Infants born between 2009 and 2013 at term without comorbidities were followed for the first two years of life, up to 2015. We calculated the cumulative incidence among different race/ethnicity groups, and evaluated the risks by developing logistic regression models. Results Of 877 465 healthy term infants, 10 356 infants were hospitalized with bronchiolitis. The overall cumulative incidence was 11.8 per 1000 births. The cumulative incidences in non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, Hispanic, and Asian infants were 8.6, 15.4, 19.1, and 6.5 per 1000 births, respectively. On multivariable analysis adjusting for socioeconomic status, the risks remained substantially high among non-Hispanic black (odds ratio [OR] 1.42, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.34-1.51) and Hispanic infants (OR 1.77, 95%CI: 1.67-1.87), whereas Asian race was protective (aHR 0.62, 95%CI: 0.56-0.69). Conclusions The risks of bronchiolitis hospitalization in the first two years of life were substantially different by race/ethnicity, with Hispanic and black infants having highest rates of hospitalization. Further research is needed to develop and implement culturally appropriate public health interventions to reduce racial and ethnic health disparities in bronchiolitis.


2021 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 34
Author(s):  
Kate Northstone ◽  
Daniel Smith ◽  
Claire Bowring ◽  
Amanda Hill ◽  
Richard Hobbs ◽  
...  

The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) is a prospective population-based cohort study which recruited pregnant women in 1990-1992 and has followed these women, their partners (Generation 0; G0) and offspring (Generation 1; G1) ever since. The study reacted rapidly to the COVID-19 pandemic, deploying online questionnaires in March and May 2020. Home-based antibody tests and a further questionnaire were sent to 5220 participants during a two-week period of October 2020.  4.2% (n=201) of participants reported a positive antibody test (3.2% G0s [n=81]; 5.6% G1s [n=120]). 43 reported an invalid test, 7 did not complete and 3 did not report their result. Participants uploaded a photo of their test to enable validation: all positive tests, those where the participant could not interpret the result and a 5% random sample were manually checked against photos. We report 92% agreement (kappa=0.853). Positive tests were compared to additional COVID-19 status information: 58 (1.2%) participants reported a previous positive test, 73 (1.5%) reported that COVID-19 was suspected by a doctor, but not tested and 980 (20.4%) believed they had COVID-19 due to their own suspicions.  Of those reporting a positive result on our antibody test, 55 reported that they did not think they had had COVID-19. Results from antibody testing and questionnaire data will be complemented by health record linkage and results of other biological testing– uniting Pillar testing data with home testing and self-report. Data have been released as an update to the original datasets released in July 2020. It comprises: 1) a standard dataset containing all participant responses to all three questionnaires with key sociodemographic factors and 2) as individual participant-specific release files enabling bespoke research across all areas supported by the study. This data note describes the antibody testing, associated questionnaire and the data obtained from it.


2021 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 34
Author(s):  
Kate Northstone ◽  
Daniel Smith ◽  
Claire Bowring ◽  
Amanda Hill ◽  
Richard Hobbs ◽  
...  

The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) is a prospective population-based cohort study which recruited pregnant women in 1990-1992 and has followed these women, their partners (Generation 0; G0) and offspring (Generation 1; G1) ever since. The study reacted rapidly to the COVID-19 pandemic, deploying online questionnaires in March and May 2020. Home-based antibody tests and a further questionnaire were sent to 5220 participants during a two-week period of October 2020. 4.2% (n=201) of participants reported a positive antibody test (3.2% G0s [n=81]; 5.6% G1s [n=120]). 43 reported an invalid test, 7 did not complete and 3 did not report their result. Participants uploaded a photo of their test to enable validation: all positive tests, those where the participant could not interpret the result and a 5% random sample were manually checked against photos. We report 92% agreement (kappa=0.853). Positive tests were compared to additional COVID-19 status information: 58 (1.2%) participants reported a previous positive test, 73 (1.5%) reported that COVID-19 was suspected by a doctor, but not tested and 980 (20.4%) believed they had COVID-19 due to their own suspicions.  Of those reporting a positive result on our antibody test, 55 reported that they did not think they had had COVID-19. Results from antibody testing and questionnaire data will be complemented by health record linkage and results of other biological testing– uniting Pillar testing data with home testing and self-report. Data have been released as an update to the original datasets released in July 2020. It comprises: 1) a standard dataset containing all participant responses to all three questionnaires with key sociodemographic factors and 2) as individual participant-specific release files enabling bespoke research across all areas supported by the study. This data note describes the antibody testing, associated questionnaire and the data obtained from it.


2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 618-632
Author(s):  
A.S. Panchenko

Subject. The article addresses the public health in the Russian Federation and Israel. Objectives. The focus is on researching the state of public health in Russia and Israel, using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) project methodology, identifying problem areas and searching for possible ways to improve the quality of health of the Russian population based on the experience of Israel. Methods. The study draws on the ideology of the GBD project, which is based on the Disability-Adjusted Life-Year (DALY) metric. Results. The paper reveals the main causes of DALY losses and important risk factors for cancer for Russia and Israel. The findings show that the total DALY losses for Russia exceed Israeli values. The same is true for cancer diseases. Conclusions. Activities in Israel aimed at improving the quality of public health, the effectiveness of which has been proven, can serve as practical recommendations for Russia. The method of analysis, using the ideology of the GBD project, can be used as a tool for quantitative and comparative assessment of the public health.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruoyan Sun ◽  
Henna Budhwani

BACKGROUND Though public health systems are responding rapidly to the COVID-19 pandemic, outcomes from publicly available, crowd-sourced big data may assist in helping to identify hot spots, prioritize equipment allocation and staffing, while also informing health policy related to “shelter in place” and social distancing recommendations. OBJECTIVE To assess if the rising state-level prevalence of COVID-19 related posts on Twitter (tweets) is predictive of state-level cumulative COVID-19 incidence after controlling for socio-economic characteristics. METHODS We identified extracted COVID-19 related tweets from January 21st to March 7th (2020) across all 50 states (N = 7,427,057). Tweets were combined with state-level characteristics and confirmed COVID-19 cases to determine the association between public commentary and cumulative incidence. RESULTS The cumulative incidence of COVID-19 cases varied significantly across states. Ratio of tweet increase (p=0.03), number of physicians per 1,000 population (p=0.01), education attainment (p=0.006), income per capita (p = 0.002), and percentage of adult population (p=0.003) were positively associated with cumulative incidence. Ratio of tweet increase was significantly associated with the logarithmic of cumulative incidence (p=0.06) with a coefficient of 0.26. CONCLUSIONS An increase in the prevalence of state-level tweets was predictive of an increase in COVID-19 diagnoses, providing evidence that Twitter can be a valuable surveillance tool for public health.


2021 ◽  
Vol 80 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 322-322
Author(s):  
B. Samhouri ◽  
R. Vassallo ◽  
S. Achenbach ◽  
V. Kronzer ◽  
J. M. Davis ◽  
...  

Background:Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a systemic inflammatory disease of the joints and other organs, including the lungs.1 Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is a lung injury pattern associated with significant symptom burden and poor outcomes in RA.2 Better understanding of its risk factors could help with disease prevention and treatment.Objectives:Using a population-based cohort, we sought to ascertain the incidence and risk factors of RA-associated ILD (RA-ILD) in recent years.Methods:The study included adult residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota with incident RA between 1999 and 2014 based on the 1987 ACR classification criteria.3 Study subjects were followed until death, migration, or 4/30/2019. ILD was defined by the presence of bilateral interstitial fibrotic changes (excluding biapical scarring) on chest computed tomography (CT). In the absence of chest CT imaging, a physician’s diagnosis of ILD in conjunction with chest X-ray findings suggestive of ILD and a restrictive pattern on pulmonary function testing (defined as a total lung capacity less than the lower limit of normal) was considered diagnostic of ILD. Evaluated risk factors included age, sex, calendar year, smoking status, body mass index (BMI) and presence/absence of rheumatoid factor (RF) and anti-citrullinated protein antibodies (ACPA). Cumulative incidence of ILD was adjusted for the competing risk of death. Cox models were used to assess the association between potential risk factors and the development of RA-ILD.Results:In Olmsted County, 645 residents were diagnosed with RA between 1999 and 2014. Seventy percent of patients were females, and 30% were males; median age at RA diagnosis was 55.3 [IQR 44.1-66.6] years, and most patients (89%) were white. Fifty-three percent of patients were never-smokers, and 64% had seropositive RA. Forty percent were obese (i.e., BMI ≥30 kg/m2); median BMI was 28.3 [IQR 24.3-33.0] kg/m2.In the cohort, ILD was identified in 73 patients. The ILD diagnosis predated RA diagnosis in 22 patients (3.4%) who were excluded from subsequent analyses. Final analyses included the remaining 623 patients with no ILD preceding, or at the time of RA diagnosis. Over a median follow-up interval of 10.2 [IQR 6.5-14.3] years, 51 patients developed ILD. Cumulative incidence of ILD, adjusted for the competing risk of death, was 4.3% at 5 years; 7.8% at 10 years; 9.4% at 15 years; and 12.3% at 20 years after RA diagnosis (Figure 1).Age, and history of smoking at RA diagnosis correlated with the incidence of ILD; adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were 1.89 per 10-year increase in age (95% confidence interval 1.52-2.34) and 1.94 (95% confidence interval 1.10-3.42), respectively. On the other hand, sex (HR: 1.21; 95% CI: 0.68-2.17), BMI (HR: 0.99; 95% CI: 0.95-1.04), obesity (HR: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.50-1.58), and seropositivity (HR: 1.15; 95% CI: 0.65-2.03) did not demonstrate significant associations with ILD.Conclusion:This study provides a contemporary estimate of the occurrence of ILD in a well-characterized population-based cohort of patients with RA. Our findings of a lack of association between sex, obesity and seropositivity with ILD may indicate a change in established risk factors for ILD and warrant further investigation.References:[1]Shaw M, Collins BF, Ho LA, Raghu G. Rheumatoid arthritis-associated lung disease. Eur Respir Rev. 2015;24(135):1-16. doi:10.1183/09059180.00008014[2]Bongartz T, Nannini C, Medina-Velasquez YF, et al. Incidence and mortality of interstitial lung disease in rheumatoid arthritis - A population-based study. Arthritis Rheum. 2010;62(6):1583-1591. doi:10.1002/art.27405[3]Aletaha D, Neogi T, Silman AJ, et al. 2010 Rheumatoid arthritis classification criteria: An American College of Rheumatology/European League Against Rheumatism collaborative initiative. Arthritis Rheum. 2010;62(9):2569-2581. doi:10.1002/art.27584Figure 1.Cumulative incidence of ILD in patients diagnosed with RA between 1999 and 2014, adjusted for the competing risk of death. Abbreviations. ILD: interstitial lung disease; RA: rheumatoid arthritis.Disclosure of Interests:Bilal Samhouri: None declared, Robert Vassallo Grant/research support from: Research grants from Pfizer, Sun Pharmaceuticals and Bristol Myers Squibb, Sara Achenbach: None declared, Vanessa Kronzer: None declared, John M Davis III Grant/research support from: Research grant from Pfizer., Elena Myasoedova: None declared, Cynthia S. Crowson: None declared


2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 720-720
Author(s):  
Lisa McGuire

Abstract The Healthy Brain Initiative (HBI) seeks to advance public health awareness of and action on ADRD as a public health issue. The HBI Road Map Series, State and Local Public Health Partnerships to Address Dementia: The 2018–2023 Road Map (S&L RM) and Road Map for Indian Country (RMIC), provide the public health with concrete steps to respond to the growing burden of ADRD in communities, consistent with the aim of the Building Our Largest Dementia (BOLD) Infrastructure for Alzheimer’s Act (P.L. 115-406). This series of RMs for state, local, and tribal public health provide flexible menus of actions to address cognitive health, including ADRD, and support for dementia caregivers with population-based approaches. This session will describe how the initiative evolved over the past 15 years including policy and implementation success stories.


Vaccines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 550
Author(s):  
Peter A. C. Maple

In the UK, population virus or antibody testing using virus swabs, serum samples, blood spots or oral fluids has been performed to a limited extent for several diseases including measles, mumps, rubella and hepatitis and HIV. The collection of population-based infection and immunity data is key to the monitoring of disease prevalence and assessing the effectiveness of interventions such as behavioural modifications and vaccination. In particular, the biological properties of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) and its interaction with the human host have presented several challenges towards the development of population-based immunity testing. Measuring SARS-CoV-2 immunity requires the development of antibody assays of acceptable sensitivity and specificity which are capable of accurately detecting seroprevalence and differentiating protection from non-protective responses. Now that anti-COVID-19 vaccines are becoming available there is a pressing need to measure vaccine efficacy and the development of herd immunity. The unprecedented impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the UK in terms of morbidity, mortality, and economic and social disruption has mobilized a national scientific effort to learn more about this virus. In this article, the challenges of testing for SARS-CoV-2 infection, particularly in relation to population-based immunity testing, will be considered and examples given of relevant national level studies.


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