Adaptive management: making recurrent decisions in the face of uncertainty

2021 ◽  
pp. 313-328
Author(s):  
James D. Nichols
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Adaptive Management ◽  
Model Development ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Vital Rates ◽  
Information State ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Wise Decision ◽  
The Face ◽  
Development State

The key to wise decision-making in disciplines such as conservation, wildlife management, and epidemiology is the ability to predict consequences of management actions on focal systems. Predicted consequences are evaluated relative to programme objectives in order to select the favoured action. Predictions are typically based on mathematical models developed to represent hypotheses about management effects on system dynamics. For populations ranging from large mammals to plant communities to bacterial pathogens, demographic modelling is often the approach favoured for model development. State variables of such models may be population abundance, density, occupancy, or species richness, with corresponding vital rates such as rates of reproduction, survival, local extinction, and local colonisation. A key source of uncertainty that characterises such modelling efforts is the nature of relationships between management actions and vital rates. Adaptive management is a form of structured decision-making developed for decision problems that are recurrent and characterised by such structural uncertainty. One approach to incorporating this uncertainty is to base decisions on multiple models, each of which makes different predictions according to its underlying hypothesis. An information state of model weights carries information about the relative predictive abilities of the models. Monitoring of system state variables provides information about system responses, and comparison of these responses with model-based predictions provides a basis for updating the information state. Decisions emphasise the better-predicting model(s), leading to better decisions as the process proceeds. Adaptive management can thus produce optimal decisions now, while simultaneously reducing uncertainty for even better management in the future.

The Quest for the Holy Grail and the Dutch Integrated Approach to Nitrogen: How to Align Adaptive Management Strategies with the EU Nature Directives?

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 171-217
Author(s):  
Hendrik Schoukens
Keyword(s):  
Adaptive Management ◽  
Environmental Law ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Natura 2000 ◽  
Nitrogen Emissions ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
The Face ◽  
Experimental Management ◽  
Economic Developments

The concept of adaptive management is generally defined as a flexible decision-making process that can be adjusted in the face of uncertainties as outcomes of management actions and other events become better understood. These experimental management strategies, which may grant permit agencies more discretion to authorise economic developments, have become increasingly popular as tools to overcome deadlock scenarios in the context of the EU Nature Directives. One notable application is the Dutch Programmatic Approach to Nitrogen (Programma Aanpak Stikstof – PAS ), which puts forward a more reconciliatory and integrated approach towards permitting additional nitrogen emissions in the vicinity of Natura 2000 sites. The purpose of this paper is to use the Dutch PAS as a benchmark to explore the margins available within the EU Nature Directives to implement more flexible adaptive management strategies. This paper argues that the Dutch PAS, especially taking into account the immediate trade-off that is provided between future restoration actions and ongoing harmful effects, appears to stand at odds with the substantive underpinning of the EU Nature Directives. As a result, its concrete application might be stalled through legal actions which advocate for a more restrictive approach to the authorization of additional impacts on vulnerable EU protected nature. It therefore remains highly doubtful whether the Dutch PAS is to be presented as a textbook example of a genuine sustainable management strategy within the context of EU environmental law.

An adaptive management case study for managing macropods on Maria Island National Park, Tasmania, Australia: adding devils to the detail

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Janeane Ingram
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Adaptive Management ◽  
National Park ◽  
Animal Health ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Management Approach ◽  
Tasmanian Devil ◽  
Integrated Monitoring ◽  
Juvenile Mortality ◽  
Management Actions

Adaptive management is driven by structured decision making and evidence from monitoring in a ‘learning’ framework that guides management actions. In a conservation context, this iterative approach includes evaluation of the impacts on natural processes. On Maria Island National Park, Tasmania, Australia, introduced Forester kangaroo, Bennetts wallaby and Tasmanian pademelon have been intensively managed by an annual cull since 1994. Management actions were triggered by high parasite loads, intense grazing pressure and high juvenile mortality during drought periods. Criticism of the annual cull from animal welfare groups initiated the development of an adaptive management approach for decision making that replaces the historic ‘trial and error’ process. Following a comprehensive review of the existing macropod management program in 2011, an integrated monitoring strategy was established to provide evidence for informed decision making. Assessments of animal health and estimates of population trends are the key indicators for management actions to occur. Maintaining viable macropod populations and protecting natural values form the basis of management objectives. Management actions in each year, for each species, represent ‘treatments’ as spatial replication is not possible at such a small scale. An adaptive management approach for macropod management on Maria Island has resulted in only one species being culled in 2014 and 2015 for the first time in almost 20 years. However the recent introduction of a major predator, the Tasmanian devil, has increased uncertainty for long-term macropod management on Maria Island with no cull occurring in 2016 and 2017.

THE "EVERYTHING'S DIFFERENT, EVERY TIME" INNOVATION MANAGEMENT PROBLEM: A PROMISING MODEL DEVELOPMENT

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (05) ◽  
pp. 1550057
Author(s):  
GLENN BROPHEY ◽  
ANAHITA BAREGHEH ◽  
DAVID HEMSWORTH ◽  
MARK WACHOWIAK ◽  
DEAN HAY ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Innovation Management ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Opportunity To Learn ◽  
Management Problem ◽  
New Paradigm ◽  
Continuous Innovation ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Context Specific

This study reports on the testing of a promising approach for aiding decision-making during innovation. By focusing on the effects of risk/action dyads on success (the Risk/Action/Success (R/A/S) framework), and because perceived risks do appear repeatedly even though they emanate from differing contexts, the model offers an opportunity to learn from what worked best before. Using Artificial Neural Networks, this novel approach allows for generalisation and applicability of specific innovation management actions that are context specific. For academics, the proposed approach contributes to the risk-management literature by proposing a new paradigm for understanding and analysing innovation processes and identification of the most frequently occurring risks as seen by managers directly involved in continuous innovation. In addition, the model offers the capacity to use quantitative techniques to model the overlapping risks and actions during innovation-related decision-making. For practitioners, it can provide specific recommendations in the form of success-sorted lists of actions taken by other innovation managers that faced similar risks. This paper presents the theoretical and practical rationales underpinning this R/A/S framework and reports on the viability of this approach using pilot data.

scholarly journals Development and Delivery of Species Distribution Models to Inform Decision-Making

BioScience ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 69 (7) ◽  
pp. 544-557 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helen R Sofaer ◽  
Catherine S Jarnevich ◽  
Ian S Pearse ◽  
Regan L Smyth ◽  
Stephanie Auer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Model Assessment ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Regulatory Decision ◽  
Methodological Choices ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Model Predictions

Abstract Information on where species occur is an important component of conservation and management decisions, but knowledge of distributions is often coarse or incomplete. Species distribution models provide a tool for mapping habitat and can produce credible, defensible, and repeatable information with which to inform decisions. However, these models are sensitive to data inputs and methodological choices, making it important to assess the reliability and utility of model predictions. We provide a rubric that model developers can use to communicate a model's attributes and its appropriate uses. We emphasize the importance of tailoring model development and delivery to the species of interest and the intended use and the advantages of iterative modeling and validation. We highlight how species distribution models have been used to design surveys for new populations, inform spatial prioritization decisions for management actions, and support regulatory decision-making and compliance, tying these examples back to our model assessment rubric.

scholarly journals ABOUT PRINCIPLES OF PRECEDENCE AND TRANSCENDENCE IN ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT (SOCIO-ECONOMIC-ECONOMIC CONTEXT)

2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (2(64)) ◽  
pp. 293-297
Author(s):  
K.V. Stepanova ◽  
V.N. Stepanov
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Adaptive Management ◽  
Past Experience ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Nonlinear Phenomena ◽  
General Description ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Methodological Aspects ◽  
High Degree

The paper discusses the methodological aspects of the principles of adaptive management for socio-economic, economic-ecological and other systems. Adaptive management includes a set of methods that allow to change the parameters of the regulating system depending on management actions and outcomes and external impacts. Adaptive management is based inter alia on the principles of �precedence� (past experience) and �transcendence� (beyond experience). The principle of precedence includes past experience in decision making (study the problem "from the bottom"). Based on the definition of transcendence (something that is fundamentally unavailable to experiential knowledge or not based on experience), transcendental analysis is considered as analysis of complex nonlinear phenomena and processes with a high degree of uncertainty (study the problem �from the top�). The paper presents a conceptual model of adaptive management based on the principles of precedence and transcendence. This model includes the next steps: definition and general description of the object of adaptive management; study of the object "from the bottom", based on past experience; study the object of adaptive management "from the top", taking into account a kind of "absolute", which goes beyond the existing experience; vision of the system based on the incidence matrix, ranking of interests and threats; decision making taking into account improvement of previous decisions and implementation of idealized transcendental model. The concept of the principles of precedence and transcendence in adaptive management is considered in the paper in the context of incident theory in order to form the system vision and rank the system from the point of view of interests (as a resource of development) or threats (as an anti-resource of development)

scholarly journals Bird monitoring programs in Ontario: What have we got and what do we need?

2009 ◽  
Vol 85 (2) ◽  
pp. 202-217 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles M Francis ◽  
Peter J Blancher ◽  
R. Dean Phoenix
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Adaptive Management ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Population Monitoring ◽  
Provincial Government ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Bird Population ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Monitoring Programs ◽  
Bird Monitoring

Bird population monitoring should be designed to enhance conservation of birds through informing policy decisions and management actions. Many different bird surveys are undertaken in Ontario ranging from province-wide multi-species programs such as the Ontario Breeding Bird Atlas to single-species localized surveys for Species at Risk. Although most surveys provide some useful contributions towards understanding the status of bird populations, there remain significant gaps in both species and geographic coverages, especially in the northern half of the province, and few surveys are sufficient for evaluating the specific effects of current management practices on birds. Enhancing bird monitoring in the province should first involve clearly defining, quantitatively, the information required for management, conservation and decision-making, in the context of an adaptive management cycle, and then identifying the most cost-effective monitoring programs to obtain that information. This can most effectively be implemented through a cooperative effort involving all parties with an interest in bird monitoring data including federal and provincial government agencies, environmental non-government organizations, and industry. Key words: bird population monitoring, evaluation, adaptive management, decision-making

Penilaian Kinerja Dosen Dengan Menggunakan Metode AHP Studi Kasus di STIE Ahmad Dahlan Jakarta

Liquidity ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 100-109
Author(s):  
Ellya Sestri
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Performance Appraisal ◽  
Technological Progress ◽  
Pairwise Comparison ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Faculty Performance ◽  
Business World ◽  
The Face ◽  
Hierarchy Process ◽  
Rule Out

An increasingly rapid technological progress in the era of globalization in the business world, so do not rule out the possibility that a decision-making is something that is very vital in determining the decisions to be taken in the face of competitive business world. Decision making can be influenced by several aspects, this can affect the speed of decision making by the decision maker in which decisions must be quick and accurate. Lecturer Performance Assessment Using the Analytical Hierarchy Process is a decision support system that aims to assess faculty performance according to certain criteria. This system of faculty performance appraisal criteria to map a hierarchy, where each hierarchy will be performed pairwise comparison, the pairwise comparisons between criteria, so to get a comparison of the relative importance of criteria with each other. The results of this comparison is then analyzed to obtain the priority of each criterion. Once completed and performed an assessment of alternative options to be compared and calculated to obtain the best alternatives according to established criteria.

Strategies to improve implementation of adaptive management practices for restoration in coastal Louisiana

Shore & Beach ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 83-91
Author(s):  
Tim Carruthers ◽  
Richard Raynie ◽  
Alyssa Dausman ◽  
Syed Khalil
Keyword(s):  
Adaptive Management ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
The United States ◽  
State Agency ◽  
Coastal Protection ◽  
Coastal Restoration ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Coastal Louisiana ◽  
Restoration Effort

Natural resources of coastal Louisiana support the economies of Louisiana and the whole of the United States. However, future conditions of coastal Louisiana are highly uncertain due to the dynamic processes of the Mississippi River delta, unpredictable storm events, subsidence, sea level rise, increasing temperatures, and extensive historic management actions that have altered natural coastal processes. To address these concerns, a centralized state agency was formed to coordinate coastal protection and restoration effort, the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA). This promoted knowledge centralization and supported informal adaptive management for restoration efforts, at that time mostly funded through the Coastal Wetlands Planning, Protection and Restoration Act (CWPPRA). Since the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill in 2010 and the subsequent settlement, the majority of restoration funding for the next 15 years will come through one of the DWH mechanisms; Natural Resource and Damage Assessment (NRDA), the RESTORE Council, or National Fish and Wildlife Foundation –Gulf Environmental Benefit Fund (NFWF-GEBF). This has greatly increased restoration effort and increased governance complexity associated with project funding, implementation, and reporting. As a result, there is enhanced impetus to formalize and unify adaptive management processes for coastal restoration in Louisiana. Through synthesis of input from local coastal managers, historical and current processes for project and programmatic implementation and adaptive management were summarized. Key gaps and needs to specifically increase implementation of adaptive management within the Louisiana coastal restoration community were identified and developed into eight tangible and specific recommendations. These were to streamline governance through increased coordination amongst implementing entities, develop a discoverable and practical lessons learned and decision database, coordinate ecosystem reporting, identify commonality of restoration goals, develop a common cross-agency adaptive management handbook for all personnel, improve communication (both in-reach and outreach), have a common repository and clearing house for numerical models used for restoration planning and assessment, and expand approaches for two-way stakeholder engagement throughout the restoration process. A common vision and maximizing synergies between entities can improve adaptive management implementation to maximize ecosystem and community benefits of restoration effort in coastal Louisiana. This work adds to current knowledge by providing specific strategies and recommendations, based upon extensive engagement with restoration practitioners from multiple state and federal agencies. Addressing these practitioner-identified gaps and needs will improve engagement in adaptive management in coastal Louisiana, a large geographic area with high restoration implementation within a complex governance framework.

Ban Ki-moon, 2007–2016

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Gowan
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Central African Republic ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cautious Approach ◽  
Peacekeeping Operations ◽  
Council Decision ◽  
The Face

During Ban Ki-moon’s tenure, the Security Council was shaken by P5 divisions over Kosovo, Georgia, Libya, Syria, and Ukraine. Yet it also continued to mandate and sustain large-scale peacekeeping operations in Africa, placing major burdens on the UN Secretariat. The chapter will argue that Ban initially took a cautious approach to controversies with the Council, and earned a reputation for excessive passivity in the face of crisis and deference to the United States. The second half of the chapter suggests that Ban shifted to a more activist pressure as his tenure went on, pressing the Council to act in cases including Côte d’Ivoire, Libya, and Syria. The chapter will argue that Ban had only a marginal impact on Council decision-making, even though he made a creditable effort to speak truth to power over cases such as the Central African Republic (CAR), challenging Council members to live up to their responsibilities.

Megadrought and Collapse

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Agricultural Landscapes ◽  
15Th Century ◽  
Societal Collapse ◽  
The Face ◽  
Time Periods ◽  
Paleoclimate Proxy ◽  
Habitat Tracking

This is the first book to treat the major examples of megadrought and societal collapse, from the late Pleistocene end of hunter–gatherer culture and origins of cultivation to the 15th century AD fall of the Khmer Empire capital at Angkor, and ranging from the Near East to South America. Previous enquiries have stressed the possible multiple and internal causes of collapse, such overpopulation, overexploitation of resources, warfare, and poor leadership and decision-making. In contrast, Megadrought and Collapse presents case studies of nine major episodes of societal collapse in which megadrought was the major and independent cause of societal collapse. In each case the most recent paleoclimatic evidence for megadroughts, multiple decades to multiple centuries in duration, is presented alongside the archaeological records for synchronous societal collapse. The megadrought data are derived from paleoclimate proxy sources (lake, marine, and glacial cores; speleothems, or cave stalagmites; and tree-rings) and are explained by researchers directly engaged in their analysis. Researchers directly responsible for them discuss the relevant current archaeological records. Two arguments are developed through these case studies. The first is that societal collapse in different time periods and regions and at levels of social complexity ranging from simple foragers to complex empires would not have occurred without megadrought. The second is that similar responses to megadrought extend across these historical episodes: societal collapse in the face of insurmountable climate change, abandonment of settlements and regions, and habitat tracking to sustainable agricultural landscapes. As we confront megadrought today, and in the likely future, Megadrought and Collapse brings together the latest contributions to our understanding of past societal responses to the crisis on an equally global and diverse scale.

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