Bandwagon Effects, Information Cascades, and the Power in Numbers

2019 ◽  
pp. 729-753
Author(s):  
Susanne Lohmann
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Campaigns ◽  
The Political ◽  
Information Cascades ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Hidden Knowledge ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Regional Elections ◽  
Public Opinion Polls

Numbers are bandied about persuasively in the run-up to elections. Political parties read the tea leaves of past elections and current polls, and voters tune in for the news media’s horse race coverage of political campaigns. The numbers fixation goes into overdrive in view of election cascades, as exemplified by presidential primaries in the United States and Land (regional state) elections in Germany. An unexpectedly good or bad showing in one election creates positive or negative momentum in the next, and regional elections serve a barometer function for national elections. As if the system isn’t already busy enough generating numbers, the political parties sponsor cascades of straw polls (“if the election were held today, whom would you vote for?”). The overall picture is one of an electorate endlessly jabbering away in a multilogue with itself and the political parties. In the end, notwithstanding the inordinate amount of numbers sloshing around in the system, election day is always good for a surprise, for every now and then, the underdog wins.—What are we to make of this racket? The literature on political persuasion zig zags between two opposite and equally unsatisfying explanations, namely, mindlessly conformist bandwagons and rationally uninformative information cascades. To fill this explanatory void, this chapter draws on the protest movement literature for its revolutionary bandwagons and turbulent information cascades. Suites of elections (primary and general, regional and national) and the attendant pre-election public opinion polls unearth hidden knowledge, which is why numbers are meaningful and influential.

RHETORIC OF THE STANDARDS: THE DEBATE OVER GOLD AND SILVER IN THE 1890s

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wyatt Wells
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Future Development ◽  
Precious Metal ◽  
Public Discourse ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Political ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
The Future

AbstractIn the 1890s, questions about whether to base the American currency upon gold or silver dominated public discourse and eventually forced a realignment of the political parties. The matter often confuses modern observers, who have trouble understanding how such a technically complex—even arcane—issue could arouse such passions. The fact that no major nation currently backs its currency with precious metal creates the suspicion that the issue was a “red herring” that distracted from matters of far greater importance. Yet the rhetoric surrounding the “Battle of the Standards” indicates that the more sophisticated advocates of both sides understood that, in the financial context of the 1890s, the contest between gold and silver not only had important economic implications but would substantially affect the future development of the United States.

scholarly journals Introduction (Special Edition – The Presidential Nomination Process)

2008 ◽  
Vol 28 ◽  
pp. 289-291
Author(s):  
Wayne P. Steger
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Political Party ◽  
The United States ◽  
General Election ◽  
The Political ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Special Edition ◽  
Presidential Nomination ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Democratic Country

Understanding why certain candidates get nominated is an important aspect of political scientists. This topic is a narrow one and influences a wider variety of subjects such as the political parties, general elections, and even the extent to which the United States is a democratic country. Presidential nominees matter—they become the foremost spokesperson and the personified image of the party (Miller and Gronbeck 1994), the main selectors of issues and policies for their party’s general election campaign (Petrocik 1996; Tedesco 2001), a major force in defining the ideological direction of a political party (Herrera 1995), and candidates that voters select among in the general election. This volume is devoted to presidential nominations and the 2008 nomination specifically.

scholarly journals SMART LOCKDOWN STRATEGY, SECOND AND THIRD WAVES OF COVID-19 IN PAKISTAN: A POLITICAL DISCOURSE ANALYSIS

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 919-930
Author(s):  
Hanan Afzal ◽  
Masroor Sibtain ◽  
Zafar Iqbal ◽  
Hina Saleem
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Political Discourse ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Political Campaigns ◽  
The Political ◽  
Senate Elections ◽  
Political Events ◽  
The Masses ◽  
Gilgit Baltistan

Purpose: The present study investigates the violations of SOPs regarding the spread of COVID19 during the political processional campaigns in the Gilgit Baltistan and Senate elections in Pakistan held just before the second and third waves of COVID-19. For instance, during the first wave Pakistani government employed a smart lockdown along with persuasive awareness campaign. However, in the second and third waves, it seemed that SOPs were not influential due to violations by politicians themselves. Method: The researchers analyze the journalistic text both verbal and pictorial by employing the qualitative and interpretive paradigm to understand the policies and strategies of political parties in their political gatherings. Data regarding political campaigns have been collected from the print media through the purposive sampling technique. The secondary data has been collected from various research publications to establish the background. Main Findings: The study analyzed political response to COVID-19 SOPs on the part of Pakistani political parties during the political campaigns in Gilgit Baltistan and senate elections. Referent pictures (see Figures), taken from authentic, official newspaper websites, showed that during ‘Political congregations and rallies’, individuals and politicians attended the events without requiring social distance and masks. Both the opposition and ruling party and their workers have taken approximately equal parts to violate the SOPs to gain political gains and benefits. Application of the Study: The study suggests that the political parties would not conduct these types of political events that cause the spread of the virus, especially when it is considered a worldwide pandemic. The study would be both socially and politically beneficial for the organizations and groups to learn how a pandemic may affect the masses if precautionary measures are not followed adequately. The Originality of the Study: According to the researchers' best knowledge, the research gap of the present study is contemporary and innovative, i.e., integrating the conceptual model of political discourse with political events.

The Leadership of the United States in the Postwar World

1944 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 235-248
Author(s):  
Clarence A. Berdahl
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
United States Navy ◽  
World Order ◽  
The United States ◽  
League Of Nations ◽  
The Political ◽  
Unanimous Vote ◽  
International Court ◽  
The Hague

It is now more than one hundred years since the substance of the Connally Resolution was first adopted by a legislative body in the United States; it is almost fifty years since the United States, at the Hague Conferences, took the lead in pressing for an international court with much more power than the Court we have since failed to join; it is about thirty-five years since Congress itself, by a unanimous vote in both houses, adopted a resolution urging that the United States Navy be combined with other navies into an international police force for the preservation of peace; it is not quite thirty years ago that the political parties, without any of the present hullabaloo on the point, and at a time when the United States was not itself at war, achieved such a unity of position in their stand for effective American participation in world order as to make debate between them on that issue virtually nil; and it is not quite thirty years ago that the man soon to become the Republican leader in the Senate joined from the same platform with the Democratic President in an appeal for a League of Nations, and a League with force, both economic and military, at its command.

Stemmen in Vlaanderen op 13 december 1987 : Een statistische analyse

Res Publica ◽  
1988 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-50
Author(s):  
Marc Swyngedouw ◽  
Jaak Billiet
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Occupational Status ◽  
The Political ◽  
Voting Behaviour ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Statistische Analyse ◽  
Use Of Data ◽  
Linear Modelling ◽  
Log Linear

Taking into account the limits of such data, this study analyses the shifts in voting behaviour from the national elections in 1985 to those in 1987 in Flanders, using log-linear modelling. The use of data from poll surveys for estimating shifts between subsequent elections poses some methodological problems.The second part presents the results of the analysis. About 13,51 % of -the 1985-voters switched. Although there are significant shifts between all the political parties, the Christian Democratic Party (CVP) loses on all fronts. A log-linear analysis of party-reference by sex, age and occupational status shows the strength and weakness of each party in different societal categories. In conclusion, an interpretation of the shifts is proposed. The following factors can account for the major shifts : the desintegration of the catholic pillar, the emergence of a dual society, the affinity between neo-liberalism and yuppie-culture and the conflict between the language communities.

Campaign Songs and Political Advertising in Ghana

2019 ◽  
pp. 108-130
Author(s):  
Margaret Ivy Amoakohene ◽  
Gilbert K. M. Tietaah ◽  
Favour Esinam Normeshie ◽  
Fidelis Yayra Sesenu
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Political Advertising ◽  
Political Campaigns ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Office ◽  
Election Cycles

As persuasive tools for political campaigns, songs and music are integral features of electioneering in Africa. Since Ghana's return to multiparty democracy in 1992, election cycles in the country have been heralded and accentuated by campaign songs which extol the virtues of their sponsors and/or denigrate the achievements and their suitability for political office. This chapter examines the use of repetitions, testimonials, and biblical imagery in campaign songs of two major political parties in Ghana—the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC)—during the 2012 and 2016 elections. Eight campaign songs were analyzed. The findings show that the songs sought to communicate messages/themes of submissiveness/humility, divine choice/prophecy, achievers/achievement, and opponents as failures/deceivers about the political parties and their candidates.

“Backstage moments during the campaign”: The interactive use of Instagram by Spanish political leaders

2020 ◽  
pp. 146144482097239
Author(s):  
Antonio Pineda ◽  
Elena Bellido-Pérez ◽  
Ana I Barragán-Romero
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Social Networking Sites ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Strategic Objectives ◽  
Interactive Tools ◽  
Use Of The Internet ◽  
Use Of Social Media ◽  
Regional Elections ◽  
Theoretical Issues

The political use of social media is a well-established field of research. We perform a content analysis of the messages posted on Instagram—one of the fastest growing social networking sites—by the leaders of the four main political parties in Spain, with special emphasis on the interactive use of this platform and the functions played by the posts. The sample of Instagram posts includes a non-election period and a period of regional elections. The results point to a practically irrelevant use of interactive tools, and an emphasis on the self-promotion of leaders and their parties. Accordingly, the data show that Instagram is basically used by Spanish leaders as a supplement to their campaign efforts and strategic objectives. These findings are discussed and linked to broader theoretical issues such as the hypothesis of normalization and the use of the Internet for broadcasting.

Presence and specificity of the political communication of the Catalan independence leaders on Twitter in the 2017 regional elections

First Monday ◽  
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Javier Bustos Díaz ◽  
Francisco Javier Ruiz del Olmo ◽  
Miguel Nazario Moreno Velasco
Keyword(s):  
Social Networks ◽  
Big Data ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Political Communication ◽  
Media Coverage ◽  
Mixed Methodology ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Electoral Campaign ◽  
Regional Elections

The regional elections in Catalonia held on 21 December 2017 received wide media coverage, far beyond Spanish media, due to separatist tension in that territory and was one of the main topics in most of the world’s media. Within this process social networks, especially Twitter, obtained crucial relevance given the interest aroused by the political leaders’ publications, since in those elections the debate transcended the usual ideological divisions of right and left and became a struggle between constitutionalists and separatists. This paper analyses the presence and influence of the main candidates of the Catalan political parties on Twitter. To achieve this, a mainly quantitative, mixed methodology based on big data was carried out where all the tweets issued by the candidates during the electoral campaign were analysed.

scholarly journals The Good, Bad, and Ugly of Populism: A Comparative Analysis of the U.S. and Slovakia

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 166-183 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron T. Walter
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Political Process ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Campaigns ◽  
Late Nineteenth Century ◽  
Neoclassical Realism ◽  
The People ◽  
Personalization Of Politics

Abstract The dynamics of political campaigning is as unique as the people and party platforms that inhabit the campaign period. The progress of certain political personalities or of political parties themselves insure a positivity to the political process in contrast to statism. Not all change is welcome surely, but the fact that such activity occurs within pluralist democracy is a sign of vitality in both practice and principle. One such change in recent political campaigns has been the increased popularity of candidates and parties espousing populist platforms and rhetoric. While in the United States, such represented interest is historically based from the late nineteenth century, in Slovakia it is more recent, but no less significant in its historical roots. In the following paper the methodology of a comparative analysis is employed to investigate populism within the United States and Slovakia while utilizing the theoretical context of neoclassical realism that has populism in the national context: personalization of politics, catch-all policies, media centricity, professionalization and political marketing.

For Better or Worse: How Political Consultants are Changing Elections in the United States

2006 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 446-448
Author(s):  
Kim Speers
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New York ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Campaigns ◽  
The Political ◽  
State University ◽  
Political Consultants ◽  
The Us ◽  
Science Community ◽  
The Media

For Better or Worse: How Political Consultants are Changing Elections in the United States, David Dulio, Albany: State University of New York Press, 2004, pp. xvii, 289.During the 2004 federal election, the media shone light on the political consultants who were reportedly affiliated or somehow related to Paul Martin's election campaign. By their account, the traditional party machine, often viewed to be the primary, if not the only, actor in political campaigns in Canada, seemed to have taken a backseat to the expensive, polished and professional campaign machinery the private sector had to offer. Campaign management through consultancy was now publicly visible in Canada and reliance on the party machine, while still important, seemed to face competition in terms of expertise and proximity to power. However, the study of political campaigns and specifically, the role of political consultants within campaigns, has received sparse attention from the political science community outside of the United States. Yet even in the US, in spite of the prevalent and pervasive presence of political consultants in electoral politics, the study of this group is relatively new.

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