scholarly journals Extinction intensity, selectivity and their combined macroevolutionary influence in the fossil record

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 20160202 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan L. Payne ◽  
Andrew M. Bush ◽  
Ellen T. Chang ◽  
Noel A. Heim ◽  
Matthew L. Knope ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Fossil Record ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Geometric Mean ◽  
Quantitative Measure ◽  
Biodiversity Crisis ◽  
Extinction Selectivity ◽  
Multiple Predictor ◽  
Permian Mass Extinction ◽  
Extinction Events

The macroevolutionary effects of extinction derive from both intensity of taxonomic losses and selectivity of losses with respect to ecology, physiology and/or higher taxonomy. Increasingly, palaeontologists are using logistic regression to quantify extinction selectivity because the selectivity metric is independent of extinction intensity and multiple predictor variables can be assessed simultaneously. We illustrate the use of logistic regression with an analysis of physiological buffering capacity and extinction risk in the Phanerozoic marine fossil record. We propose the geometric mean of extinction intensity and selectivity as a metric for the influence of extinction events. The end-Permian mass extinction had the largest influence on the physiological composition of the fauna owing to its combination of high intensity and strong selectivity. In addition to providing a quantitative measure of influence to compare among past events, this approach provides an avenue for quantifying the risk posed by the emerging biodiversity crisis that goes beyond a simple projection of taxonomic losses.

scholarly journals How predictable is extinction? Forecasting species survival at million-year timescales

2019 ◽  
Vol 374 (1788) ◽  
pp. 20190392 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Smits ◽  
Seth Finnegan
Keyword(s):  
Fossil Record ◽  
Human Impacts ◽  
Rank Order ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Geographical Range ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Extinction Events ◽  
Over Time

A tenet of conservation palaeobiology is that knowledge of past extinction patterns can help us to better predict future extinctions. Although the future is unobservable, we can test the strength of this proposition by asking how well models conditioned on past observations would have predicted subsequent extinction events at different points in the geological past. To answer this question, we analyse the well-sampled fossil record of Cenozoic planktonic microfossil taxa (Foramanifera, Radiolaria, diatoms and calcareous nanoplankton). We examine how extinction probability varies over time as a function of species age, time of observation, current geographical range, change in geographical range, climate state and change in climate state. Our models have a 70–80% probability of correctly forecasting the rank order of extinction risk for a random out-of-sample species pair, implying that determinants of extinction risk have varied only modestly through time. We find that models which include either historical covariates or account for variation in covariate effects over time yield equivalent forecasts, but a model including both is overfit and yields biased forecasts. An important caveat is that human impacts may substantially disrupt range-risk dynamics so that the future will be less predictable than it has been in the past. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The past is a foreign country: how much can the fossil record actually inform conservation?’

Evidence for extinction selectivity throughout the marine invertebrate fossil record

Paleobiology ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 553-564 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Alex Janevski ◽  
Tomasz K. Baumiller
Keyword(s):  
Species Richness ◽  
Mass Extinction ◽  
Fossil Record ◽  
Marine Invertebrate ◽  
Species Level ◽  
Geologic History ◽  
Extinction Selectivity ◽  
Extinction Events ◽  
Open Question ◽  
Mass Extinction Events

The fossil record has been used to show that in some geologic intervals certain traits of taxa may increase their survivability, and therefore that the risk of extinction is not randomly distributed among taxa. It has also been suggested that traits that buffer against extinction in background times do not confer the same resistance during mass extinction events. An open question is whether at any time in geologic history extinction probabilities were randomly distributed among taxa. Here we use a method for detecting random extinction to demonstrate that during both background and mass extinction times, extinction of marine invertebrate genera has been nonrandom with respect to species richness categories of genera. A possible cause for this nonrandom extinction is selective clustering of extinctions in genera consisting of species which possess extinction-biasing traits. Other potential causes considered here include geographic selectivity, increased extinction susceptibility for species in species-rich genera, or biases related to taxonomic practice and/or sampling heterogeneity. An important theoretical result is that extinction selectivity at the species level cannot be smoothly extrapolated upward to genera; the appearance of random genus extinction with respect to species richness of genera results when extinction has been highly selective at the species level.

scholarly journals Machine learning (decision tree analysis) identifies ecological selectivity patterns across the end-Permian mass extinction

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
William J. Foster ◽  
Georgy Ayzel ◽  
Terry T. Isson ◽  
Maria Mutti ◽  
Martin Aberhan
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Decision Tree ◽  
Mass Extinction ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Stationary Mode ◽  
Mass Extinctions ◽  
Tree Algorithms ◽  
Extinction Selectivity ◽  
Permian Mass Extinction

AbstractDecision tree algorithms are rarely utilized in paleontological research, and here we show that machine learning algorithms can be used to identify determinants of extinction as well as predict extinction risk. This application of decision tree algorithms is important because the ecological selectivity of mass extinctions can reveal critical information on organismic traits as key determinants of extinction and hence the causes of extinction. To understand which factors led to the mass extinction of life during an extreme global warming event, we quantified the ecological selectivity of marine extinctions in the well-studied South China region during the end-Permian mass extinction using the categorized gradient boosting algorithm. We find that extinction selectivity varies between different groups of organisms and that a synergy of multiple environmental stressors best explains the overall end-Permian extinction selectivity pattern. Extinction risk was greater for genera that were limited to deep-water habitats, had a stationary mode of life, possessed a siliceous skeleton or, less critically, had calcitic skeletons. These selective losses directly link the extinction to the environmental effects of rapid injections of carbon dioxide into the ocean-atmosphere system, specifically the combined effects of expanded oxygen minimum zones, rapid warming, and ocean acidification.

scholarly journals The preservation potential of terrestrial biogeographic patterns

2021 ◽  
Vol 288 (1945) ◽  
pp. 20202927
Author(s):  
Simon A. F. Darroch ◽  
Danielle Fraser ◽  
Michelle M. Casey
Keyword(s):  
Fossil Record ◽  
Biodiversity Loss ◽  
Biodiversity Crisis ◽  
Biogeographic Patterns ◽  
Spatially Explicit Models ◽  
Geological Past ◽  
Preservation Potential ◽  
Richness Patterns ◽  
Extinction Events

Extinction events in the geological past are similar to the present-day biodiversity crisis in that they have a pronounced biogeography, producing dramatic changes in the spatial distributions of species. Reconstructing palaeobiogeographic patterns from fossils therefore allows us to examine the long-term processes governing the formation of regional biotas, and potentially helps build spatially explicit models for future biodiversity loss. However, the extent to which biogeographic patterns can be preserved in the fossil record is not well understood. Here, we perform a suite of simulations based on the present-day distribution of North American mammals, aimed at quantifying the preservation potential of beta diversity and spatial richness patterns over extinction events of varying intensities, and after applying a stepped series of taphonomic filters. We show that taphonomic biases related to body size are the biggest barrier to reconstructing biogeographic patterns over extinction events, but that these may be compensated for by both the small mammal record preserved in bird castings, as well as range expansion in surviving species. Overall, our results suggest that the preservation potential of biogeographic patterns is surprisingly high, and thus that the fossil record represents an invaluable dataset recording the changing spatial distribution of biota over key intervals in Earth History.

scholarly journals The effects of geographic range size and abundance on extinction during a time of “sluggish”’ evolution

Paleobiology ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Michelle M. Casey ◽  
Erin E. Saupe ◽  
Bruce S. Lieberman
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Fossil Record ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Geographic Range ◽  
Range Size ◽  
Late Paleozoic ◽  
The North ◽  
Geographic Range Size ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Habitat Tracking

Abstract Geographic range size and abundance are important determinants of extinction risk in fossil and extant taxa. However, the relationship between these variables and extinction risk has not been tested extensively during evolutionarily “quiescent” times of low extinction and speciation in the fossil record. Here we examine the influence of geographic range size and abundance on extinction risk during the late Paleozoic (Mississippian–Permian), a time of “sluggish” evolution when global rates of origination and extinction were roughly half those of other Paleozoic intervals. Analyses used spatiotemporal occurrences for 164 brachiopod species from the North American midcontinent. We found abundance to be a better predictor of extinction risk than measures of geographic range size. Moreover, species exhibited reductions in abundance before their extinction but did not display contractions in geographic range size. The weak relationship between geographic range size and extinction in this time and place may reflect the relative preponderance of larger-ranged taxa combined with the physiographic conditions of the region that allowed for easy habitat tracking that dampened both extinction and speciation. These conditions led to a prolonged period (19–25 Myr) during which standard macroevolutionary rules did not apply.

Mass extinctions alter extinction and origination dynamics with respect to body size

2021 ◽  
Vol 288 (1960) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedro M. Monarrez ◽  
Noel A. Heim ◽  
Jonathan L. Payne
Keyword(s):  
Body Size ◽  
Mass Extinction ◽  
Evolutionary Biology ◽  
Marine Animal ◽  
Mass Extinctions ◽  
Extinction Selectivity ◽  
Extinction Events ◽  
Mass Extinction Events ◽  
Marine Biosphere

Whether mass extinctions and their associated recoveries represent an intensification of background extinction and origination dynamics versus a separate macroevolutionary regime remains a central debate in evolutionary biology. The previous focus has been on extinction, but origination dynamics may be equally or more important for long-term evolutionary outcomes. The evolution of animal body size is an ideal process to test for differences in macroevolutionary regimes, as body size is easily determined, comparable across distantly related taxa and scales with organismal traits. Here, we test for shifts in selectivity between background intervals and the ‘Big Five’ mass extinction events using capture–mark–recapture models. Our body-size data cover 10 203 fossil marine animal genera spanning 10 Linnaean classes with occurrences ranging from Early Ordovician to Late Pleistocene (485–1 Ma). Most classes exhibit differences in both origination and extinction selectivity between background intervals and mass extinctions, with the direction of selectivity varying among classes and overall exhibiting stronger selectivity during origination after mass extinction than extinction during the mass extinction. Thus, not only do mass extinction events shift the marine biosphere into a new macroevolutionary regime, the dynamics of recovery from mass extinction also appear to play an underappreciated role in shaping the biosphere in their aftermath.

Marine Metazoan Modern Mass Extinction: Improving Predictions by Integrating Fossil, Modern, and Physiological Data

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 369-390 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piero Calosi ◽  
Hollie M. Putnam ◽  
Richard J. Twitchett ◽  
Fanny Vermandele
Keyword(s):  
Global Change ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Biodiversity Loss ◽  
Marine Ecosystems ◽  
Physiological Data ◽  
Marine Biodiversity ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
History Of ◽  
Extinction Events ◽  
Modern Mass

Evolution, extinction, and dispersion are fundamental processes affecting marine biodiversity. Until recently, studies of extant marine systems focused mainly on evolution and dispersion, with extinction receiving less attention. Past extinction events have, however, helped shape the evolutionary history of marine ecosystems, with ecological and evolutionary legacies still evident in modern seas. Current anthropogenic global changes increase extinction risk and pose a significant threat to marine ecosystems, which are critical for human use and sustenance. The evaluation of these threats and the likely responses of marine ecosystems requires a better understanding of evolutionary processes that affect marine ecosystems under global change. Here, we discuss how knowledge of ( a) changes in biodiversity of ancient marine ecosystems to past extinctions events, ( b) the patterns of sensitivity and biodiversity loss in modern marine taxa, and ( c) the physiological mechanisms underpinning species’ sensitivity to global change can be exploited and integrated to advance our critical thinking in this area.

When bivalves took over the world

Paleobiology ◽  
2007 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 397-413 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margaret L. Fraiser ◽  
David J. Bottjer
Keyword(s):  
Mass Extinction ◽  
Arms Race ◽  
Steady Increase ◽  
Early Triassic ◽  
Environmental Distribution ◽  
Biodiversity Crisis ◽  
Marine Communities ◽  
The World ◽  
Mesozoic Marine Revolution ◽  
Permian Mass Extinction

AbstractThe end-Permian mass extinction is commonly portrayed not only as a massive biodiversity crisis but also as the time when marine benthic faunas changed from the Paleozoic Fauna, dominated by rhynchonelliform brachiopod taxa, to the Modern Fauna, dominated by gastropod and bivalve taxa. After the end-Permian mass extinction, scenarios involving the Mesozoic Marine Revolution portray a steady increase in numerical dominance by these benthic molluscs as largely due to the evolutionary effects of an “arms race.” We report here a new global paleoecological database from study of shell beds that shows a dramatic geologically sudden earliest Triassic takeover by bivalves as numerical dominants in level-bottom benthic marine communities, which continued through the Early Triassic. Three bivalve genera were responsible for this switch, none of which has any particular morphological features to distinguish it from many typical Paleozoic bivalve genera. The numerical success of these Early Triassic bivalves cannot be attributed to any of the well-known morphological evolutionary innovations of post-Paleozoic bivalves that characterize the Mesozoic Marine Revolution. Rather, their ability to mount this takeover most likely was due to the large extinction of rhynchonelliform brachiopods during the end-Permian mass extinction and aided by their environmental distribution and physiological characteristics that enabled them to thrive during periods of oceanic and atmospheric stress during the Permian/Triassic transition.

scholarly journals Analyzing Dependent Variables with Multiple Surrogates in Accounting Research

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enyi Enyi
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Performance Studies ◽  
Geometric Mean ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Geometric Means ◽  
Canonical Correlations ◽  
Dependent Variables ◽  
Actual Outcome ◽  
Ethical Clearance

The paper contains details a research carried out to show that the use of geometric mean to unify multivariate dependent variables in financial performance studies gives better and more practical results than the multiple abstraction analysis provided using advanced econometric tools such as TLS, PLS, MCA, Canonical correlations etc.<div>The study used the logistic regression analysis to compare the a priori expectations of 30 Ph.D research theses with their actual outcomes using econometric tools and the actual outcome using geometric means. The study used Ph.D theses in accounting and finance sourced from the libraries of four universities in Nigeria.</div><div>The study was a desktop research using publicly available literary resources and as such requires no ethical clearance.</div>

scholarly journals Sediment core fossils in ancient Lake Ohrid: testing for faunal change in molluscs since the Last Interglacial period

2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 3969-3999 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Albrecht ◽  
H. Vogel ◽  
T. Hauffe ◽  
T. Wilke
Keyword(s):  
Sediment Core ◽  
Fossil Record ◽  
Interglacial Period ◽  
Ancient Lake ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
Lake Ohrid ◽  
Last Interglacial Period ◽  
History Of ◽  
Extinction Events ◽  
Mollusc Shells

Abstract. Ancient Lake Ohrid is probably of early Pleistocene or Pliocene origin and amongst the few lakes in the world harboring an outstanding degree of endemic biodiversity. Although there is a long history of evolutionary research in Lake Ohrid, particularly on molluscs, a mollusc fossil record has been missing up to date. For the first time, gastropod and bivalve fossils are reported from the basal, calcareous part of a 2.6 m long sediment succession (core Co1200) from the north-eastern part of Lake Ohrid. Electron spin resonance (ESR) dating of mollusc shells from the same stratigraphic level yielded an age of 130±28 ka. Lithofacies III sediments, i.e. a subdivision of the stratigraphic unit comprising the basal succession of core Co1200 between 181.5–263 cm appeared solid, grayish-white, and consisted almost entirely of silt-sized endogenic calcite (CaCO3>70%) and intact and broken mollusc shells. Here we compare the faunal composition of the thanatocoenosis with recent mollusc associations in Lake Ohrid. A total of 13 mollusc species (9 gastropod and 4 bivalve species) could be identified within Lithofacies III sediments. The value of sediment core fossils for reconstructing palaeoenvironmental settings was evaluated. The agreement between sediment and palaeontological proxies was tested. The combined findings of the ecological study and the sediment characteristics suggest deposition in a shallow water environment during the Last Interglacial period. We tested for major faunal changes since the Last Interglacial period and searched for signs of extinction events. The fossil fauna exclusively included species also found in the present fauna, i.e. no extinction events are evident for this site since the Last Interglacial. The thanatocoenosis showed the highest similarity with recent Intermediate Layer (5–25 m) mollusc assemblages. The demonstrated existence of a mollusc fossil record in Lake Ohrid sediment cores also has great significance for future deep drilling projects. It can be hoped that a more far reaching mollusc fossil record will then be obtained, enabling insight into the early evolutionary history of Lake Ohrid.

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