scholarly journals Geographical variation in species' population responses to changes in temperature and precipitation

2015 ◽  
Vol 282 (1818) ◽  
pp. 20151561 ◽  
Author(s):  
James W. Pearce-Higgins ◽  
Nancy Ockendon ◽  
David J. Baker ◽  
Jamie Carr ◽  
Elizabeth C. White ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Geographical Differences ◽  
Population Responses ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Northern Latitudes ◽  
Low Latitudes ◽  
Species Population

Despite increasing concerns about the vulnerability of species' populations to climate change, there has been little overall synthesis of how individual population responses to variation in climate differ between taxa, with trophic level or geographically. To address this, we extracted data from 132 long-term (greater than or equal to 20 years) studies of population responses to temperature and precipitation covering 236 animal and plant species across terrestrial and freshwater habitats. Our results identify likely geographical differences in the effects of climate change on populations and communities in line with macroecological theory. Temperature tended to have a greater overall impact on populations than precipitation, although the effects of increased precipitation varied strongly with latitude, being most positive at low latitudes. Population responses to increased temperature were generally positive, but did not vary significantly with latitude. Studies reporting significant climatic trends through time tended to show more negative effects of temperature and more positive effects of precipitation upon populations than other studies, indicating climate change has already impacted many populations. Most studies of climate change impacts on biodiversity have focused on temperature and are from middle to high northern latitudes. Our results suggest their findings may be less applicable to low latitudes.

scholarly journals Skewed temperature dependence affects range and abundance in a warming world

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy Hurford ◽  
Christina A. Cobbold ◽  
Péter K. Molnár
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Climate Warming ◽  
Synergistic Effects ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Integrodifference Equation ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Growth Metrics ◽  
Fitness Curve ◽  
Warming World

AbstractPopulation growth metrics such asR0are usually asymmetric functions of temperature, with cold-skewed curves arising when the positive effects of a temperature increase outweigh the negative effects, and warm-skewed curves arising in the opposite case. Classically, cold-skewed curves are interpreted as more beneficial to a species under climate warming, because cold-skewness implies increased population growth over a larger proportion of the species’ fundamental thermal niche than warm-skewness. However, inference based on the shape of the fitness curve alone, and without considering the synergistic effects of net reproduction, density, and dispersal may yield an incomplete understanding of climate change impacts. We formulate a moving-habitat integrodifference equation model to evaluate how fitness curve skewness affects species’ range size and abundance during climate warming. In contrast to classic interpretations, we find that climate warming adversely affects populations with cold-skewed fitness curves, positively affects populations with warm-skewed curves and has relatively little or mixed effects on populations with symmetric curves. Our results highlight the synergistic effects of fitness curve skewness, spatially heterogeneous densities, and dispersal in climate change impact analyses, and that the common approach of mapping changes only inR0may be misleading.

scholarly journals Satellites, Self-reports, and Submersion: Exposure to Floods in Bangladesh

2015 ◽  
Vol 105 (5) ◽  
pp. 232-236 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raymond Guiteras ◽  
Amir Jina ◽  
A. Mushfiq Mobarak
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Objective Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Flood Exposure ◽  
Self Reports ◽  
Term Variation

A burgeoning “Climate-Economy” literature has uncovered many effects of changes in temperature and precipitation on economic activity, but has made considerably less progress in modeling the effects of other associated phenomena, like natural disasters. We develop new, objective data on floods, focusing on Bangladesh. We show that rainfall and self-reported exposure are weak proxies for true flood exposure. These data allow us to study adaptation, giving accurate measures of both long-term averages and short term variation in exposure. This is important in studying climate change impacts, as people will not only experience new exposures, but also experience them differently.

Changes in migration, carry-over effects, and migratory connectivity

2019 ◽  
pp. 93-107 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto Ambrosini ◽  
Andrea Romano ◽  
Nicola Saino
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Migratory Connectivity ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Annual Life Cycle ◽  
Northern Latitudes ◽  
Timing Of Migration ◽  
Tropical Areas ◽  
Carry Over

Studies of the timing (phenology) of bird migration provided some of the first evidence for the effects of climate change on organisms. Since the rate of climate change is uneven across the globe, with northern latitudes experiencing faster warming trends than tropical areas, animals moving across latitudes are subject to diverging trends of climate change at different stages of their annual life cycle, and, consequently, they can become mistimed with the local ecological conditions, with potentially negative effects on population size. This chapter reviews the modifications induced by climate change in different migration traits, like the timing of migration events, the distribution of organisms, and the direction and the speed of movements. It also considers the effects of ecological carry-over effects and migratory connectivity on the response of birds to climate change.

scholarly journals Skewed temperature dependence affects range and abundance in a warming world

2019 ◽  
Vol 286 (1908) ◽  
pp. 20191157 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy Hurford ◽  
Christina A. Cobbold ◽  
Péter K. Molnár
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Climate Warming ◽  
Synergistic Effects ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Integrodifference Equation ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Growth Metrics ◽  
Fitness Curve ◽  
Warming World

Population growth metrics such as R 0 are usually asymmetric functions of temperature, with cold-skewed curves arising when the positive effects of a temperature increase outweigh the negative effects, and warm-skewed curves arising in the opposite case. Classically, cold-skewed curves are interpreted as more beneficial to a species under climate warming, because cold-skewness implies increased population growth over a larger proportion of the species's fundamental thermal niche than warm-skewness. However, inference based on the shape of the fitness curve alone, and without considering the synergistic effects of net reproduction, density and dispersal, may yield an incomplete understanding of climate change impacts. We formulate a moving-habitat integrodifference equation model to evaluate how fitness curve skewness affects species’ range size and abundance during climate warming. In contrast to classic interpretations, we find that climate warming adversely affects populations with cold-skewed fitness curves, positively affects populations with warm-skewed curves and has relatively little or mixed effects on populations with symmetric curves. Our results highlight the synergistic effects of fitness curve skewness, spatially heterogeneous densities and dispersal in climate change impact analyses, and that the common approach of mapping changes only in R 0 may be misleading.

scholarly journals Revival of traditional best practices for rangeland restoration under climate change in the dry areas

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 643-659
Author(s):  
Azaiez Ouled Belgacem ◽  
Farah Ben Salem ◽  
Mouldi Gamoun ◽  
Roukaya Chibani ◽  
Mounir Louhaichi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Best Practices ◽  
Plant Cover ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Human Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Dry Areas ◽  
Southern Tunisia ◽  
Grazing Systems

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the benefits of reintroducing traditional grazing systems practices for improving arid rangelands. Grazing is the most extensive land use in southern Tunisia, but the rangelands have suffered many decades of severe degradation due to profound socioeconomic changes and the emergence of an agro-pastoral society in place of the former pastoral one. Traditional grazing systems (gdel and herd mobility), which had historically allowed for grazing deferment and control of grazing livestock were abandoned. Yet grazing management strategies are important tools to sustain integrated livestock rangeland production systems in dry areas in the face of ongoing climate change and human pressure. Design/methodology/approach This study assesses the revival of traditional best practices of rangeland resting in a representative community. Total plant cover, species composition, flora richness and range production were determined in six rangeland sites subjected respectively to one, two and three years of rest; one and two years of light grazing after rest; and free grazing (control). Findings Results showed that dry rangelands keep their resilience to the negative effects of climate change once human pressure is controlled. A maximum of two years of rest is enough to sustainably manage the rangelands in southern Tunisia, as this protection showed considerable and positive effects on the parameters scored. Originality/value The revival of the traditional best practices under new arrangements adapted to current biophysical and socioeconomic conditions would be an excellent tool to mitigate the negative effects of frequent droughts and reduce the animal feed costs that poor farmers face.

scholarly journals Scientistsʼ Warning on Climate Change and Medicinal Plants

Planta Medica ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 86 (01) ◽  
pp. 10-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wendy L. Applequist ◽  
Josef A. Brinckmann ◽  
Anthony B. Cunningham ◽  
Robbie E. Hart ◽  
Michael Heinrich ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Medicinal Plants ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Medicinal Species ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Anthropogenic Habitat ◽  
Precipitation Regimes ◽  
Chemical Content ◽  
Mitigate Climate Change

AbstractThe recent publication of a World Scientistsʼ Warning to Humanity highlighted the fact that climate change, absent strenuous mitigation or adaptation efforts, will have profound negative effects for humanity and other species, affecting numerous aspects of life. In this paper, we call attention to one of these aspects, the effects of climate change on medicinal plants. These plants provide many benefits for human health, particularly in communities where Western medicine is unavailable. As for other species, their populations may be threatened by changing temperature and precipitation regimes, disruption of commensal relationships, and increases in pests and pathogens, combined with anthropogenic habitat fragmentation that impedes migration. Additionally, medicinal species are often harvested unsustainably, and this combination of pressures may push many populations to extinction. A second issue is that some species may respond to increased environmental stresses not only with declines in biomass production but with changes in chemical content, potentially affecting quality or even safety of medicinal products. We therefore recommend actions including conservation and local cultivation of valued plants, sustainability training for harvesters and certification of commercial material, preservation of traditional knowledge, and programs to monitor raw material quality in addition to, of course, efforts to mitigate climate change.

scholarly journals Climate change impacts on nutrient loads in the Yorkshire Ouse catchment (UK)

2002 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 197-209 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Bouraoui ◽  
L. Galbiati ◽  
G. Bidoglio
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
Nutrient Loads ◽  
Nitrogen And Phosphorus ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This study assessed the impact of potential climate change on the nutrient loads to surface and sub-surface waters from agricultural areas and was conducted using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The study focused on a 3500 km2 catchment located in northern England, the Yorkshire Ouse. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated using sets of five years' measurements of nitrate and ortho-phosphorus concentrations and water flow. To increase the reliability of the hydrological model predictions, an uncertainty analysis was conducted by perturbing input parameters using a Monte-Carlo technique. The SWAT model was then run using a baseline scenario corresponding to an actual measured time series of daily temperature and precipitation, and six climate change scenarios. Because of the increase in temperature, all climate scenarios introduced an increase of actual evapotranspiration. Faster crop growth and an increased nutrient uptake resulted, as did an increase of annual losses of total nitrogen and phosphorus, however, with strong seasonal differences. Keywords: SWAT model, climate change, nutrient loads

scholarly journals Climate change impacts on agriculture sector: A case study of Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 51 (8) ◽  
Author(s):  
Uzair Ali ◽  
Wang Jing ◽  
Jialin Zhu ◽  
Zhibek Omarkhanova ◽  
Shah Fahad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Agricultural Development ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Influence Factors ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Vulnerability To Climate Change

ABSTRACT: The current article looks at the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially crop production, and influence factors of agricultural development in terms of their rational use in Pakistan. Due to the dependence of economic development, and agriculture in the South Asian region on access to renewable national resources and the associated vulnerability to climate change, the limited financial and professional resources of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan require a clear definition of national priorities in this area. In the preparation of this article, general scientific cognition methods, in particular, empirical-theoretical methods were used. Grouping and classification methods have been used to process and systematize the data. The ability to change productivity, depending on the variation of the average annual air temperature and the average annual precipitation rate, was considered using a two-factor regression model. The main finding of the study is that temperature and precipitation have a negative impact on agricultural production. This study can provide a scientific justification for the specialization of agricultural production in the regions of Pakistan as well as the execution of the necessary agricultural activities.

scholarly journals SWAT BASED ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT IN THENPENNAI SUB-BASIN OF SOUTH INDIA

2018 ◽  
Vol XLII-5 ◽  
pp. 557-562
Author(s):  
K. Nivedita Priyadarshini ◽  
S. A. Rahaman ◽  
S. Nithesh Nirmal ◽  
R. Jegankumar ◽  
P. Masilamani
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Scale Model ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Soil And Water

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Climate change impacts on watershed ecosystems and hydrologic processes are complex. The key significant parameters responsible for balancing the watershed ecosystems are temperature and rainfall. Though these parameters are uncertain, they play a prime role in the projections of dimensional climate change studies. The impact of climate change is more dependent on temperature and precipitation which contributes at a larger magnitude for characterising global warming issues. This paper aims to forecast the variations of temperature and precipitation during the period of 2020&amp;ndash;2050 for the northern part of Thenpennar sub basin. This study is modelled using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) &amp;ndash; a scale model developed to predict the impact of changes that occurs in land, soil and water over a period of time. This study is validated using the base period from 1980&amp;ndash;2000 which shows the distribution of rainfall and temperature among 38 watersheds. The results from this study show that there is a decrease in the rainfall for a maximum of about 20% in the month of December during the predicted period of 2020 and 2050. This study assesses the possible adverse impact of climate change on temperature and precipitation of Thenpennai sub-basin. This kind of predictions will help the government agencies, rulers and decision makers in policy making and implementing the adaptation strategies for the changing climatic conditions.</p>

scholarly journals Climate Change Impacts on Livestock Production Systems: A Review

2014 ◽  
pp. 148-189
Author(s):  
Angie Poliquit
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Livestock Production ◽  
Main Concern ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Indirect Impacts ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Co2

The socio-economic contribution of livestock production to global livelihood and food security offsets its negative effects on the environment through greenhouse gas (GHG) emission. Livestocks are emitters of GHGs, carbon dioxide (CO2) from land conversion and deforestation, nitrous oxide (N2O) from manure and slurry, and methane (CH4) from animal digestion which significantly contribute to climate change. Climate change has both direct and indirect impacts on animal farming. Thus, the main concern nowadays is toward the development of programs for adaptation and mitigation of GHG emissions. This review provides knowledge about climate change impacts on livestock production systems with the identification of strategies for livestock adaptation to climate change and mitigation of GHG emissions.

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