scholarly journals Rethinking convective quasi-equilibrium: observational constraints for stochastic convective schemes in climate models

2008 ◽  
Vol 366 (1875) ◽  
pp. 2579-2602 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. David Neelin ◽  
Ole Peters ◽  
Johnny W.-B Lin ◽  
Katrina Hales ◽  
Christopher E Holloway
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Sensitivity Study ◽  
Continuous Phase ◽  
Quasi Equilibrium ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Spatial Averaging ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
Long Range Correlations

Convective quasi-equilibrium (QE) has for several decades stood as a key postulate for parametrization of the impacts of moist convection at small scales upon the large-scale flow. Departures from QE have motivated stochastic convective parametrization, which in its early stages may be viewed as a sensitivity study. Introducing plausible stochastic terms to modify the existing convective parametrizations can have substantial impact, but, as for so many aspects of convective parametrization, the results are sensitive to details of the assumed processes. We present observational results aimed at helping to constrain convection schemes, with implications for each of conventional, stochastic or ‘superparametrization’ schemes. The original vision of QE due to Arakawa fares well as a leading approximation, but with a number of updates. Some, like the imperfect connection between the boundary layer and the free troposphere, and the importance of free-tropospheric moisture to buoyancy, are quantitatively important but lie within the framework of ensemble-average convection slaved to the large scale. Observations of critical phenomena associated with a continuous phase transition for precipitation as a function of water vapour and temperature suggest a more substantial revision. While the system's attraction to the critical point is predicted by QE, several fundamental properties of the transition, including high precipitation variance in the critical region, need to be added to the theory. Long-range correlations imply that this variance does not reduce quickly under spatial averaging; scaling associated with this spatial averaging has potential implications for superparametrization. Long tails of the distribution of water vapour create relatively frequent excursions above criticality with associated strong precipitation events.

scholarly journals Improved moist-convective rotating shallow water model and its application to instabilities of hurricane-like vortices

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
LMD
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Shallow Water ◽  
Water Vapour ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Water Model ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Shallow Water Model ◽  
Atmospheric Motions ◽  
Rotating Shallow Water

We show how the two-layer moist-convective rotating shallow water model (mcRSW), which proved to be a simple and robust tool for studying effects of moist convection on large-scale atmospheric motions, can be improved by including, in addition to the water vapour, precipitable water, and the effects of vaporisation, entrainment, and precipitation. Thus improved mcRSW becomes cloud-resolving. It is applied, as an illustration, to model the development of instabilities of tropical cyclone-like vortices.

scholarly journals The Effect of Explicit Convection on Couplings between Rainfall, Humidity, and Ascent over Africa under Climate Change

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (19) ◽  
pp. 8315-8337 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawrence S. Jackson ◽  
Declan L. Finney ◽  
Elizabeth J. Kendon ◽  
John H. Marsham ◽  
Douglas J. Parker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Hadley Circulation ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Rain Belt ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Convective Scale ◽  
Mean Climate

AbstractThe Hadley circulation and tropical rain belt are dominant features of African climate. Moist convection provides ascent within the rain belt, but must be parameterized in climate models, limiting predictions. Here, we use a pan-African convection-permitting model (CPM), alongside a parameterized convection model (PCM), to analyze how explicit convection affects the rain belt under climate change. Regarding changes in mean climate, both models project an increase in total column water (TCW), a widespread increase in rainfall, and slowdown of subtropical descent. Regional climate changes are similar for annual mean rainfall but regional changes of ascent typically strengthen less or weaken more in the CPM. Over a land-only meridional transect of the rain belt, the CPM mean rainfall increases less than in the PCM (5% vs 14%) but mean vertical velocity at 500 hPa weakens more (17% vs 10%). These changes mask more fundamental changes in underlying distributions. The decrease in 3-hourly rain frequency and shift from lighter to heavier rainfall are more pronounced in the CPM and accompanied by a shift from weak to strong updrafts with the enhancement of heavy rainfall largely due to these dynamic changes. The CPM has stronger coupling between intense rainfall and higher TCW. This yields a greater increase in rainfall contribution from events with greater TCW, with more rainfall for a given large-scale ascent, and so favors slowing of that ascent. These findings highlight connections between the convective-scale and larger-scale flows and emphasize that limitations of parameterized convection have major implications for planning adaptation to climate change.

scholarly journals The Interaction between Moist Convection and the Atmospheric Circulation in the Tropics

2020 ◽  
Vol 101 (8) ◽  
pp. E1378-E1396 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lorenzo Tomassini
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Adjustment Process ◽  
Quasi Equilibrium ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Level Control ◽  
Low Level ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract Theories of the interaction between moist convection and the atmospheric circulation in the tropics are reviewed. Two main schools of thought are highlighted: (i) one that emphasizes the lower-level control of convection through moisture convergence and variations in convective inhibition, and (ii) one that sees convection as an adjustment process in reaction to larger-scale instabilities, referred to as convective quasi-equilibrium theory. Conceptually the two views consider moist convection to have fundamentally different roles in the tropical circulation. In one case the presence of low-level inhibition and the conditional nature of the atmospheric instability allows for convective vertical motion and latent heating to drive and reinforce synoptic-scale disturbances and overturning circulations; in the other case, because low-level inhibition is not acknowledged to be a widespread controlling barrier, convection is believed to balance and dampen vertical instabilities at the rate they are created by larger-scale processes over the vertical extent of the atmosphere. More recently, investigations of the moisture dynamics surrounding organized convective structures have led to an emerging consensus on the theory of convection–circulation coupling in the tropics that acknowledges the important role of lower- to midtropospheric moisture variations, and the significance of moist convection and convective clouds for initiating and establishing circulations. However, the implementation of these new insights in numerical models lags behind. This is exemplified by the apparent inadequacy of climate models to correctly represent decadal variability in the tropical Pacific, a fact that potentially has implications for the confidence in climate change projections based on such models.

scholarly journals Coupled simulations of the mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum: new results from PMIP2

2006 ◽  
Vol 2 (6) ◽  
pp. 1293-1346 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Braconnot ◽  
B. Otto-Bliesner ◽  
S. Harrison ◽  
S. Joussaume ◽  
J.-Y. Peterchmitt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Glacial Maximum ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Surface Cooling ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
Summer Warming

Abstract. A set of coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations using state of the art climate models is now available for the Last Glacial Maximum and the mid-Holocene through the second phase of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2). This study presents the large scale features of the simulated climates and compares the new model results to those of the atmospheric models from the first phase of the PMIP, for which sea surface temperature was prescribed or computed using simple slab ocean formulations. We consider first the large scale features of the climate change, pointing out some of the major differences between the different sets of experiments. Then we quantify the latitudinal shift of the location of the ITCZ in the tropical regions during boreal summer. It is shown that this shift is limited for LGM, whereas a northward shift and an increase of precipitation are well depicted for mid-Holocene in continental regions affected by monsoon precipitation. In the last part we quantify for both periods the feedback from snow and sea-ice in mid and high latitudes. We show that it contributes for half of the cooling in the northern hemisphere for LGM, the second half being achieved by the reduced CO2 and water vapour in the atmosphere. For mid-Holocene the snow and albedo feedbacks strengthen spring cooling and enhance boreal summer warming, whereas water vapour reinforces the late summer warming. These feedbacks are modest in the southern hemisphere. For LGM most of the surface cooling is due to CO2 and water vapour.

Sensitivity Study of Regional Climate Model Simulations to Large-Scale Nudging Parameters

2009 ◽  
Vol 137 (5) ◽  
pp. 1666-1686 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adelina Alexandru ◽  
Ramon de Elia ◽  
René Laprise ◽  
Leo Separovic ◽  
Sébastien Biner
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Power Spectra ◽  
Domain Size ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Sensitivity Study ◽  
Simulated Climate

Abstract Previous studies with nested regional climate models (RCMs) have shown that large-scale spectral nudging (SN) seems to be a powerful method to correct RCMs’ weaknesses such as internal variability, intermittent divergence in phase space (IDPS), and simulated climate dependence on domain size and geometry. Despite its initial success, SN is not yet in widespread use because of disagreement regarding the main premises—the unconfirmed advantages of removing freedom from RCMs’ large scales—and lingering doubts regarding its potentially negative side effects. This research addresses the latter issue. Five experiments have been carried out with the Canadian RCM (CRCM) over North America. Each experiment, performed under a given SN configuration, consists of four ensembles of simulations integrated on four different domain sizes for a summer season. In each experiment, the effects of SN on internal variability, time means, extremes, and power spectra are discussed. As anticipated from previous investigations, the present study confirms that internal variability, as well as simulated-climate dependence on domain size, decreases with increased SN strength. Our results further indicate a noticeable reduction of precipitation extremes as well as low-level vorticity amplitude in almost all length scales, as a side effect of SN; these effects are mostly perceived when SN is the most intense. Overall results indicate that the use of a weak to mild SN may constitute a reasonable compromise between the risk of decoupling of the RCM internal solution from the lateral boundary conditions (when using large domains without SN) and an excessive control of the large scales (with strong SN).

scholarly journals Global climatology and trends in convective environments from ERA5 and rawinsonde data

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mateusz Taszarek ◽  
John T. Allen ◽  
Mattia Marchio ◽  
Harold E. Brooks
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Rawinsonde Data

AbstractGlobally, thunderstorms are responsible for a significant fraction of rainfall, and in the mid-latitudes often produce extreme weather, including large hail, tornadoes and damaging winds. Despite this importance, how the global frequency of thunderstorms and their accompanying hazards has changed over the past 4 decades remains unclear. Large-scale diagnostics applied to global climate models have suggested that the frequency of thunderstorms and their intensity is likely to increase in the future. Here, we show that according to ERA5 convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective precipitation (CP) have decreased over the tropics and subtropics with simultaneous increases in 0–6 km wind shear (BS06). Conversely, rawinsonde observations paint a different picture across the mid-latitudes with increasing CAPE and significant decreases to BS06. Differing trends and disagreement between ERA5 and rawinsondes observed over some regions suggest that results should be interpreted with caution, especially for CAPE and CP across tropics where uncertainty is the highest and reliable long-term rawinsonde observations are missing.

scholarly journals Repeated surveying over 6 years reveals that fine-scale habitat variables are key to tropical mountain ant assemblage composition and functional diversity

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mulalo M. Muluvhahothe ◽  
Grant S. Joseph ◽  
Colleen L. Seymour ◽  
Thinandavha C. Munyai ◽  
Stefan H. Foord
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Composition ◽  
High Altitude ◽  
Functional Diversity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Abiotic Factors ◽  
Composition Analysis ◽  
Fine Scale

AbstractHigh-altitude-adapted ectotherms can escape competition from dominant species by tolerating low temperatures at cooler elevations, but climate change is eroding such advantages. Studies evaluating broad-scale impacts of global change for high-altitude organisms often overlook the mitigating role of biotic factors. Yet, at fine spatial-scales, vegetation-associated microclimates provide refuges from climatic extremes. Using one of the largest standardised data sets collected to date, we tested how ant species composition and functional diversity (i.e., the range and value of species traits found within assemblages) respond to large-scale abiotic factors (altitude, aspect), and fine-scale factors (vegetation, soil structure) along an elevational gradient in tropical Africa. Altitude emerged as the principal factor explaining species composition. Analysis of nestedness and turnover components of beta diversity indicated that ant assemblages are specific to each elevation, so species are not filtered out but replaced with new species as elevation increases. Similarity of assemblages over time (assessed using beta decay) did not change significantly at low and mid elevations but declined at the highest elevations. Assemblages also differed between northern and southern mountain aspects, although at highest elevations, composition was restricted to a set of species found on both aspects. Functional diversity was not explained by large scale variables like elevation, but by factors associated with elevation that operate at fine scales (i.e., temperature and habitat structure). Our findings highlight the significance of fine-scale variables in predicting organisms’ responses to changing temperature, offering management possibilities that might dilute climate change impacts, and caution when predicting assemblage responses using climate models, alone.

scholarly journals Cities Exacerbate Climate Warming

Urban Science ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Lahouari Bounoua ◽  
Kurtis Thome ◽  
Joseph Nigro
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
The Us

Urbanization is a complex land transformation not explicitly resolved within large-scale climate models. Long-term timeseries of high-resolution satellite data are essential to characterize urbanization within land surface models and to assess its contribution to surface temperature changes. The potential for additional surface warming from urbanization-induced land use change is investigated and decoupled from that due to change in climate over the continental US using a decadal timescale. We show that, aggregated over the US, the summer mean urban-induced surface temperature increased by 0.15 °C, with a warming of 0.24 °C in cities built in vegetated areas and a cooling of 0.25 °C in cities built in non-vegetated arid areas. This temperature change is comparable in magnitude to the 0.13 °C/decade global warming trend observed over the last 50 years caused by increased CO2. We also show that the effect of urban-induced change on surface temperature is felt above and beyond that of the CO2 effect. Our results suggest that climate mitigation policies must consider urbanization feedback to put a limit on the worldwide mean temperature increase.

scholarly journals A new world natural vegetation map for global change studies

2008 ◽  
Vol 80 (2) ◽  
pp. 397-408 ◽  
Author(s):  
David M. Lapola ◽  
Marcos D. Oyama ◽  
Carlos A. Nobre ◽  
Gilvan Sampaio
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
New World ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Vegetation Classification ◽  
Natural Vegetation ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Vegetation Map ◽  
Vegetation Maps

We developed a new world natural vegetation map at 1 degree horizontal resolution for use in global climate models. We used the Dorman and Sellers vegetation classification with inclusion of a new biome: tropical seasonal forest, which refers to both deciduous and semi-deciduous tropical forests. SSiB biogeophysical parameters values for this new biome type are presented. Under this new vegetation classification we obtained a consensus map between two global natural vegetation maps widely used in climate studies. We found that these two maps assign different biomes in ca. 1/3 of the continental grid points. To obtain a new global natural vegetation map, non-consensus areas were filled according to regional consensus based on more than 100 regional maps available on the internet. To minimize the risk of using poor quality information, the regional maps were obtained from reliable internet sources, and the filling procedure was based on the consensus among several regional maps obtained from independent sources. The new map was designed to reproduce accurately both the large-scale distribution of the main vegetation types (as it builds on two reliable global natural vegetation maps) and the regional details (as it is based on the consensus of regional maps).

scholarly journals Techno-Economic Assessment of Solar-Driven Steam Gasification of Biomass for Large-Scale Hydrogen Production

Processes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 462
Author(s):  
Houssame Boujjat ◽  
Sylvain Rodat ◽  
Stéphane Abanades
Keyword(s):  
Solar Energy ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Biomass Gasification ◽  
Sensitivity Study ◽  
H2 Production ◽  
Steam Gasification ◽  
Economic Feasibility ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
Concentrated Solar Energy ◽  
Land Cost

Solar biomass gasification is an attractive pathway to promote biomass valorization while chemically storing intermittent solar energy into solar fuels. The economic feasibility of a solar gasification process at a large scale for centralized H2 production was assessed, based on the discounted cash-flow rate of return method to calculate the minimum H2 production cost. H2 production costs from solar-only, hybrid and conventional autothermal biomass gasification were evaluated under various economic scenarios. Considering a biomass reference cost of 0.1 €/kg, and a land cost of 12.9 €/m2, H2 minimum price was estimated at 2.99 €/kgH2 and 2.48 €/kgH2 for the allothermal and hybrid processes, respectively, against 2.25 €/kgH2 in the conventional process. A sensitivity study showed that a 50% reduction in the heliostats and solar tower costs, combined with a lower land cost of below 0.5 €/m2, allowed reaching an area of competitiveness where the three processes meet. Furthermore, an increase in the biomass feedstock cost by a factor of 2 to 3 significantly undermined the profitability of the autothermal process, in favor of solar hybrid and solar-only gasification. A comparative study involving other solar and non-solar processes led to conclude on the profitability of fossil-based processes. However, reduced CO2 emissions from the solar process and the application of carbon credits are definitely in favor of solar gasification economics, which could become more competitive. The massive deployment of concentrated solar energy across the world in the coming years can significantly reduce the cost of the solar materials and components (heliostats), and thus further alleviate the financial cost of solar gasification.

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