scholarly journals Climate risk index for Italy

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2121) ◽  
pp. 20170305 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaroslav Mysiak ◽  
Silvia Torresan ◽  
Francesco Bosello ◽  
Malcolm Mistry ◽  
Mattia Amadio ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Economic Capital ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Traded Goods

We describe a climate risk index that has been developed to inform national climate adaptation planning in Italy and that is further elaborated in this paper. The index supports national authorities in designing adaptation policies and plans, guides the initial problem formulation phase, and identifies administrative areas with higher propensity to being adversely affected by climate change. The index combines (i) climate change-amplified hazards; (ii) high-resolution indicators of exposure of chosen economic, social, natural and built- or manufactured capital (MC) assets and (iii) vulnerability, which comprises both present sensitivity to climate-induced hazards and adaptive capacity. We use standardized anomalies of selected extreme climate indices derived from high-resolution regional climate model simulations of the EURO-CORDEX initiative as proxies of climate change-altered weather and climate-related hazards. The exposure and sensitivity assessment is based on indicators of manufactured, natural, social and economic capital assets exposed to and adversely affected by climate-related hazards. The MC refers to material goods or fixed assets which support the production process (e.g. industrial machines and buildings); Natural Capital comprises natural resources and processes (renewable and non-renewable) producing goods and services for well-being; Social Capital (SC) addressed factors at the individual (people's health, knowledge, skills) and collective (institutional) level (e.g. families, communities, organizations and schools); and Economic Capital (EC) includes owned and traded goods and services. The results of the climate risk analysis are used to rank the subnational administrative and statistical units according to the climate risk challenges, and possibly for financial resource allocation for climate adaptation. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’.

scholarly journals Assessment of the impact of climate change on the freshwater availability of Kaduna River basin, Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 105-114 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gloria C. Okafor ◽  
Kingsley N. Ogbu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
The Impact

AbstractChanges in runoff trends have caused severe water shortages and ecological problems in agriculture and human well-being in Nigeria. Understanding the long-term (inter-annual to decadal) variations of water availability in river basins is paramount for water resources management and climate change adaptation. Climate change in Northern Nigeria could lead to change of the hydrological cycle and water availability. Moreover, the linkage between climatic changes and streamflow fluctuations is poorly documented in this area. Therefore, this study examined temporal trends in rainfall, temperature and runoff records of Kaduna River basin. Using appropriate statistical tools and participatory survey, trends in streamflow and their linkages with the climate indices were explored to determine their amplifying impacts on water availability and impacts on livelihoods downstream the basin. Analysis indicate variable rainfall trend with significant wet and dry periods. Unlike rainfall, temperature showed annual and seasonal scale statistically increasing trend. Runoff exhibit increasing tendency but only statistically significant on annual scale as investigated with Mann–Kendall trend test. Sen’s estimator values stood in agreement with Mann–Kendall test for all variables. Kendall tau and partial correlation results revealed the influence of climatic variables on runoff. Based on the survey, some of the hydrological implications and current water stress conditions of these fluctuations for the downstream inhabitants were itemized. With increasing risk of climate change and demand for water, we therefore recommend developing adaptive measures in seasonal regime of water availability and future work on modelling of the diverse hydrological characteristics of the entire basin.

Developing a model for building resilience to climate risks for cultural heritage

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 99-114 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geoff O'Brien ◽  
Phil O'Keefe ◽  
Janaka Jayawickrama ◽  
Rohit Jigyasu
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Heritage ◽  
Disaster Management ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Good Practice ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
International Strategy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Newcastle Upon Tyne

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to propose a model for developing climate adaptation strategies to reduce climate risk for cultural heritage. Cultural heritage has an important role in human well-being. This paper posits that cultural heritage requires an approach that recognises the uniqueness of cultural heritage. The paper draws from the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) Making My City Resilient campaign and the Heart of the City Partnership in Newcastle upon Tyne, UK, and proposes a Cultural Heritage Adaptation Forum. The role of the forum is to develop adaptation strategies in a sustainable development context. This is an original attempt to link cultural heritage to climate risk. Design/methodology/approach – The paper draws from two initiatives and uses good practice established from the disaster management and climate communities and proposes a Cultural Heritage Adaptation Forum that can be used to formulate adaptation interventions for cultural heritage. The approach builds on active participation in a global overview of cultural heritage and climate risk led by UNISDR together with personal experience of implementing such strategies in Newcastle upon Tyne, UK. Findings – The paper finds that a model can be developed that incorporates good practice from the climate and disaster management communities. Practical implications – The paper presents a model that can be used by those stakeholders that have an interest in protecting cultural heritage form climate driven hazards. Social implications – Cultural heritage has a value for all and protecting it from climate driven hazards can impact human well-being Originality/value – The paper brings together concepts from different academic and practitioner communities. The concept outlined in the paper will be of interest to all those interested in protecting cultural heritage for climate driven hazards.

scholarly journals Climate Change and Real Estate Prices

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Igor Semenenko ◽  
Junwook Yoo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
Capital Cities ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Real Estate Returns ◽  
Real Estate Prices ◽  
Skewness And Kurtosis

Direct real estate returns are correlated with shifts in weather patterns, which are proxied by changes in four moments of distribution for differences in average and maximum daily temperatures, deviations from optimal temperatures and climate risk index reported by Germanwatch. Changes in the volatility of daily temperatures are inversely correlated with direct real estate returns. The volatility effect appeared to be marginal in 1996-2007, but it became more pronounced in 2010-2017. Other moments of the distribution, including changes in means, skewness and kurtosis, fail to obtain predictive power. Results are robust to tests in a smaller sample of capital cities and the exclusion of observations with the most significant volatility increases.

Modelling population displacement: both climate change and population growth heighten displacement risk due to river floods. 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pui Man Kam
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Vulnerable Groups ◽  
Physical And Mental Health ◽  
Population Displacement ◽  
Displaced People

<p>Disaster displacements create hardships, particularly for socio-economically vulnerable groups. Displaced people face heightened risks to their well-being, including their physical and mental health and personal security. Assisting displaced people is an important part of any humanitarian response to disasters.</p><p>Among weather-related disasters, river flooding is responsible for a large part of population displacement. River flood risk is expected to increase due to climate change and its effects on the hydrological cycle. At the same time, socioeconomic development scenarios indicate substantial increases of population in many regions that experience flood-induced displacement.</p><p>We have modelled projected changes to flood-driven population displacement in the 21<sup>st</sup> Century with the CLIMADA (CLIMate ADAptation) platform, in collaboration with the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre.</p><p>We show that both climate and population change are projected to lead to an increase of relative global flood displacement risk by roughly 350% by the end of the century. If we keep the population fixed at present levels, we find a roughly 150% increase in relative global flood displacement risk by the end of the century, or a 50% increase of risk per degree of global warming. We model displacement probabilities as a function of population density, flood depth and flood fraction.</p><p>Although the resolution of the global model is limited, the effect of climate change is robust across greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, climate models and hydrological models. Our work potentially enables the creation of a displacement early warning system.</p>

What the Science Tells Us about Climate Change

2020 ◽  
pp. 19-42
Author(s):  
Janis Sarra
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Current Science ◽  
Health And Well Being ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Chapter 2 offers an analysis of the state of science and its direct implications for business. It explores how the physical impacts of climate change are already evident, discussing impacts on human health and well-being; on food security and food production systems; on the ecosystems of oceans, lands, and wetlands; and impacts on freshwater resources and on the cryosphere. The chapter examines the concept of climate tipping points and the implications for businesses. It also explores why mitigation is crucially important to reversing the negative impacts of climate change and discusses why climate adaptation is important and necessary, but not, in itself, sufficient to change the current trajectory of global warming. The chapter focuses particularly on what companies need to know about the current science on climate change.

The application of climate adaptation algorithm to physical climate risk assessment and management of the TCFD

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iwen Liu ◽  
Ching-pin Tung
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Task Force ◽  
Financial Disclosure ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
Climate Scenarios

<p>The Financial Stability Board (FSB) published “Recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD)” in 2017 to assist companies in assessing climate-related risks and opportunities and financial disclosure. However, the integration between climate scenarios and the corporate risk management system and the financial quantification of climate-related risks are still the challenges for corporate practice. To collect the climate scenarios mentioned in TCFD and integrate the relevant factors in corporate operations, the study will use the framework of TCFD: Governance, Strategy, Risk management, Metrics and Targets, introduce the first three steps of the Climate Change Adaptation (CCA Steps): "identifying problems and establishing objectives", "assessing and analyzing current risk", "assessing and analyzing future risk", and use climate risk template which use  Hazard, Exposure and Vulnerability as risk assessment factors to establish a framework for the evaluation and analysis of risk. After establishing a complete method for climate risk and opportunity assessment, in response to the "financial disclosure", the study will link to the financial statement items, referring to related concepts such as “Value at Risk” and “stranded assets”, to strengthen the integrity and transparency of corporate financial disclosure. At last, the study will select a specific climate physical risk in a industry for case study by the analysis of literature, international reports and historical events and introduce a climate risk assessment framework to verify the practicality of this framework. The study's results will be applied to the risk management of business operations. At the same time, the framework of climate risk can assist companies to put climate change factors into their decisions, maintaining the sustainable competitiveness in a low-carbon economy.</p><p>Key words: climate risk assessment, TCFD, enterprise risk management</p>

scholarly journals Balancing Health, Economy and Climate Risk in a Multi-Crisis

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (14) ◽  
pp. 4067
Author(s):  
Jatin Nathwani ◽  
Niels Lind ◽  
Ortwin Renn ◽  
Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Performance Index ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Active Management ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
Health Economy ◽  
Human Safety ◽  
National Performance ◽  
Economic Well Being

In the presence of a global pandemic (COVID-19), the relentless pressure on global decision-makers is to ensure a balancing of health (reduce mortality impacts), economic goals (income for livelihood sustenance), and environmental sustainability (stabilize GHG emissions long term). The global energy supply system is a dominant contributor to the GHG burden and deeply embedded in the economy with its current share of 85%, use of fossil fuels has remained unchanged over 3 decades. A unique approach is presented to harmonizing the goals of human safety, economic development, and climate risk, respectively, through an operational tool that provides clear guidance to decision-makers in support of policy interventions for decarbonization. Improving climate change performance as an integral part of meeting human development goals allows the achievement of a country’s environmental, social, and economic well-being to be tracked and monitored. A primary contribution of this paper is to allow a transparent accounting of national performance highlighting the goals of enhancing human safety in concert with mitigation of climate risks. A measure of a country’s overall performance, combined as the Development and Climate Change Performance Index (DCI), is derived from two standardized indexes, the development index H and the Climate Change Performance Index CCPI. Data are analyzed for 55 countries comprising 65 percent of the world’s population. Through active management and monitoring, the proposed DCI can illustrate national performance to highlight a country’s current standing, rates of improvement over time, and a historical profile of progress of nations by bringing climate risk mitigation and economic well-being into better alignment.

scholarly journals At the Water's Edge: Coastal Settlement, Transformative Adaptation, and Well-Being in an Era of Dynamic Climate Risk

2021 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
William Solecki ◽  
Erin Friedman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Community Change ◽  
Annual Review ◽  
Publication Date ◽  
Science Literature ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
Climate Resilience ◽  
Transformative Adaptation

With accelerating climate change, US coastal communities are experiencing increased flood risk intensity, resulting from accelerated sea level rise and stronger storms. These conditions place pressure on municipalities and local residents to consider a range of new disaster risk reduction programs, climate resilience initiatives, and in some cases transformative adaptation strategies (e.g., managed retreat and relocation from highly vulnerable, low-elevation locations). Researchers have increasingly understood that these climate risks and adaptation actions have significant impacts on the quality of life, well-being, and mental health of urban coastal residents. We explore these relationships and define conditions under which adaptation practices will affect communities and residents. Specifically, we assess climate and environmental stressors, community change, and well-being by utilizing the growing climate change literature and the parallel social science literature on risk and hazards, environmental psychology, and urban geography work, heretofore not widely integrated into work on climate adaptation. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Public Health, Volume 42 is April 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

scholarly journals Green Roofs and Greenpass

Buildings ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 205 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scharf ◽  
Kraus
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Thermal Comfort ◽  
Green Infrastructure ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Urban Climate ◽  
Green Roofs ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Urban Energy Balance

The United Nations have identified climate change as the greatest threat to human life. As current research shows, urban areas are more vulnerable to climate change than rural areas. Numerous people are affected by climate change in their daily life, health and well-being. The need to react is undisputed and has led to numerous guidelines and directives for urban climate adaptation. Plants are commonly mentioned and recommended as one key to urban climate adaptation. Due to shading of open space and building surfaces, as well as evapotranspiration, plants reduce the energy load on the urban fabric and increase thermal comfort and climate resilience amongst many other ecosystem services. Plants, therefore, are described as green infrastructure (GI), because of the beneficial effects they provide. Extensive green roofs are often discussed regarding their impact on thermal comfort for pedestrians and physical properties of buildings. By means of Stadslab2050 project Elief Playhouse in Antwerp, Belgium, a single-story building in the courtyard of a perimeter block, the effects of different extensive green roof designs (A and B) on the microclimate, human comfort at ground and roof level, as well as building physics are analyzed and compared to the actual roofing (bitumen membrane) as the Status Quo variant. For the analyses and evaluation of the different designs the innovative Green Performance Assessment System (GREENPASS®) method has been chosen. The planning tool combines spatial and volumetric analyses with complex 3D microclimate simulations to calculate key performance indicators such as thermal comfort score, thermal storage score, thermal load score, run-off and carbon sequestration. Complementary maps and graphs are compiled. Overall, the chosen method allows to understand, compare and optimize project designs and performance. The results for the Elief Playhouse show that the implementation of green roofs serves a slight contribution to the urban energy balance but a huge impact on the building and humans. Variant B with entire greening performs better in all considered indicators, than the less greened design Variant A and the actual Status Quo. Variant B will probably bring a greater cost/benefit than Variant A and is thus recommended.

scholarly journals Rola ekosystemów nadrzecznych w krajobrazach rolniczych w kontekście ostatnich zmian klimatu = The role of riparian ecosystems within agricultural landscapes in the climate change context

2021 ◽  
Vol 93 (3) ◽  
pp. 387-411
Author(s):  
Ewa Kołaczkowska
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Plant Biomass ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Agricultural Landscapes ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Conservation Strategies ◽  
Riparian Ecosystems ◽  
Nitrogen And Phosphorus

Average global temperatures have been rising extremely rapidly over recent decades, with all the side-effects that may denote, including increased risks of both drought and flood, prolongation of the growing season, intensification of other extreme weather events, potentially enhanced erosion and sediment transport through river basins, and even invasions of pests and diseases. Against that factual background, this paper presents a review, and in essence a summary, of existing scientific literature as it pertains to the functioning of the riparian ecosystems present within agricultural landscapes, as well as the former’s potential role in mitigating climate change. Riparian ecosystems of course constitute areas of transition between the aquatic and terrestrial environments, and are in a position to serve as buffers, as they filter and neutralise nutrients and pesticides descending from areas at higher elevations, provide shade (that may limit the spread of light-demanding alien species), moderate stream temperatures, and work to sequester atmospheric CO2 in both plant biomass and soil. They also support water retention in river valleys, and protect banks against erosion. Zoned buffer strips consisting of one strip of trees and one of grassy or herbaceous vegetation are shown to be among the most-effective measures deployable in the mitigation of diffuse pollution. A search through 2 bibliographical databases (the Web of Science Core Collection and Scopus) was undertaken in respect of the terms: ” riparian buffer” OR” riparian corridor” OR” riparian zone” OR” riparian strip” AND” agricultural” AND” climate change”. Such a procedure allowed for the identification of 76 separate scientific papers, albeit with 12 of these warranting exclusion from further analyses on account of their actual irrelevance. The largest body of literature on this topic is seen to concentrate on highly-developed countries of North America and Europe, notably the USA, Canada and France. Deeper analysis of the papers found points to a growing interest in mathematical modelling of the effects of agricultural best-mangement practices (BMPs), in regard to future streamflow, supply of water, the transport of sediment through a basin, rates of export of nitrogen and phosphorus, etc. – with both current climatic conditions and various future scenarios for climate being taken account of. The results of all this modelling tend to show how riparian buffers may serve in a basin-based strategy for climate adaptation, by which change may actually be mitigated more effectively than it can through other BMPs, even as no full offsetting of impacts is likely to prove achievable. Many of the authors in publications selected also choose to underline the multifunctional nature of riparian ecosystems, and the specific nature of the services they have to offer. 69% of the publications analysed address implications for practice, e.g. by offering guidelines as regards conservation strategies, and/or recommendations for managers of basins or other key decision-makers when it comes to restoring or improving both the ecological health of rivers, and levels of human well-being in general.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document