scholarly journals Considerations in the deployment of novel universal vaccines against epidemic and pandemic influenza

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
N Arinaminpathy ◽  
S Riley ◽  
W.S Barclay ◽  
C Saad-Roy ◽  
B Grenfell
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Influenza ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
Clinical Severity ◽  
Population Immunity ◽  
Modelling Studies ◽  
Optimal Deployment ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Combined Vaccine ◽  
Induced Immunity ◽  
Antigenic Targets

AbstractThere is increasing interest in the development of new, ‘universal’ influenza vaccines (UIV) that - unlike current vaccines - are effective against a broad range of seasonal influenza strains, as well as against novel pandemic viruses. Even where these vaccines do not block infection, they can moderate clinical severity, reducing morbidity and mortality while potentially also reducing opportunities for transmission. Previous modelling studies have illustrated the potential epidemiological benefits of UIVs, including their potential to mitigate pandemic burden. However, these new vaccines could shape population immunity in complex ways. Here, using mathematical models of influenza transmission, we illustrate two types of unintended consequences that could arise from their future deployment. First, by reducing the amount of infection-induced immunity in a population without fully replacing it, a seasonal UIV programme may permit larger pandemics than in the absence of vaccination. Second, the more successful a future UIV programme is in reducing transmission of seasonal influenza, the more vulnerable the population could become to the emergence of a vaccine-escape variant. These risks could be mitigated by optimal deployment of any future UIV vaccine: namely, the use of a combined vaccine formulation (incorporating conventional as well as multiple universal antigenic targets), and by achieving sufficient population coverage to compensate for reductions in infection-induced immunity. As early candidates of UIVs approach advanced clinical trials, there is a need to monitor their characteristics in such a way that is focused on their potential impact. This work offers a first step in this direction.

scholarly journals Population implications of the deployment of novel universal vaccines against epidemic and pandemic influenza

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (164) ◽  
pp. 20190879 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Arinaminpathy ◽  
S. Riley ◽  
W. S. Barclay ◽  
C. Saad-Roy ◽  
B. Grenfell
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Seasonal Influenza ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Vaccine Development ◽  
Predictive Modelling ◽  
Future Data ◽  
Optimal Deployment ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Combined Vaccine ◽  
Induced Immunity

There is increasing interest in the development of new, ‘universal’ influenza vaccines (UIVs) that––unlike current vaccines––are effective against a broad range of seasonal influenza strains, as well as against novel pandemic viruses. While the existing literature discusses the potential epidemiological benefits of UIVs, it is also important to anticipate their potential unintended population consequences. Using mathematical modelling, we illustrate two such types of adverse consequences. First, by reducing the amount of infection-induced immunity in a population without fully replacing it, a seasonal UIV programme may permit larger pandemics than in the absence of vaccination. Second, the more successful a future UIV programme is in reducing transmission of seasonal influenza, the more vulnerable the population could become to the emergence of a vaccine escape variant. These risks could be mitigated by optimal deployment of any future UIV vaccine: namely, the use of a combined vaccine formulation (incorporating conventional as well as multiple universal antigenic targets) and achieving sufficient population coverage to compensate for any reductions in infection-induced immunity. In the absence of large-scale trials of UIVs, disease-dynamic models can provide helpful, early insights into their potential impact. In future, data from continuing vaccine development will be invaluable in developing robustly predictive modelling approaches.

scholarly journals Vascular Abnormalities Detected with Chest CT in COVID-19: Spectrum, Association with Parenchymal Lesions, Cardiac Changes, and Correlation with Clinical Severity (COVID-CAVA Study)

Diagnostics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 606
Author(s):  
Salah D. Qanadli ◽  
Alexander W. Sauter ◽  
Hatem Alkadhi ◽  
Andreas Christe ◽  
Pierre-Alexandre Poletti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mechanical Ventilation ◽  
Fatal Outcome ◽  
National Registry ◽  
Clinical Severity ◽  
Prognostic Role ◽  
Vascular Abnormalities ◽  
Cardiovascular Abnormalities ◽  
Vascular Congestion ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
And Biological Markers

Although vascular abnormalities are thought to affect coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients’ outcomes, they have not been thoroughly characterized in large series of unselected patients. The Swiss national registry coronavirus-associated vascular abnormalities (CAVA) is a multicentric cohort of patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection who underwent a clinically indicated chest computed tomography (CT) aiming to assess the prevalence, severity, distribution, and prognostic value of vascular and non-vascular-related CT findings. Clinical outcomes, stratified as outpatient treatment, inpatient without mechanical ventilation, inpatient with mechanical ventilation, or death, will be correlated with CT and biological markers. The main objective is to assess the prevalence of cardiovascular abnormalities–including pulmonary embolism (PE), cardiac morphology, and vascular congestion. Secondary objectives include the predictive value of cardiovascular abnormalities in terms of disease severity and fatal outcome and the association of lung inflammation with vascular abnormalities at the segmental level. New quantitative approaches derived from CT imaging are developed and evaluated in this study. Patients with and without vascular abnormalities will be compared, which is supposed to provide insights into the prognostic role and potential impact of such signs on treatment strategy. Results are expected to enable the development of an integrative score combining both clinical data and imaging findings to predict outcomes.

scholarly journals PCN3 POTENTIAL IMPACT OF WANING OF VACCINE-INDUCED IMMUNITY AGAINST HUMAN PAPILLOMAVIRUS 16/18

2004 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 246
Author(s):  
S Goldie ◽  
M Kohli ◽  
D Grima ◽  
MC Weinstein ◽  
T Wright ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Human Papillomavirus ◽  
Human Papillomavirus 16 ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Induced Immunity

scholarly journals Estimation of Total Immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in Texas

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stacia M Desantis ◽  
Luis G Leon-Novelo ◽  
Michael D Swartz ◽  
Ashraf Yaseen ◽  
Melissa A Valerio-Shewmaker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
State Level ◽  
Unknown Parameters ◽  
Department Of State ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Population Immunity ◽  
Dynamic Factors ◽  
The Us ◽  
Serological Data ◽  
Prospective Longitudinal ◽  
Induced Immunity

Given the underestimate of seroprevalence in the US due to insufficient testing, accurate estimates of population immunity to SARS-CoV-2 or vaccinations do not exist. Although model-based estimates have been proposed, they require inputting unknown parameters such as viral reproduction number, longevity of immune response, and other dynamic factors. In contrast to a model-based approach for estimating population immunity, or simplistic summing of natural- and vaccine- induced immunity, the current study presents a data-driven statistical procedure for estimating the total immunity rate in a region using prospectively collected serological data along with state-level vaccination data. We present a detailed procedure so that efforts can be replicated regionally to inform policy-making decisions relevant to SARS-CoV-2. Specifically, we conducted a prospective longitudinal statewide cohort serological survey with 10,482 participants and more than 14,000 blood samples beginning on September 30, 2020. Along with Department of State Health Services vaccination data, as of July 4, 2021, the estimated percentage of those with naturally occurring antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Texas is 35.3% (95% CI = (33.7%, 36.9%) and total estimated immunity is 69.1%.We conclude the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 is 4 times higher than the state-confirmed COVID-19 cases (8.8%). This methodology is integral to pandemic preparedness.

scholarly journals Allergic adverse events following 2015 seasonal influenza vaccine, Victoria, Australia

2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (20) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hazel J Clothier ◽  
Nigel Crawford ◽  
Melissa A Russell ◽  
Jim P Buttery
Keyword(s):  
Adverse Events ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Influenza Vaccine ◽  
Allergic Reaction ◽  
Seasonal Influenza ◽  
Vaccine Safety ◽  
Clinical Severity ◽  
Influenza Vaccines ◽  
Seasonal Influenza Vaccine ◽  
Initial Investigation

Australia was alerted to a possible increase in allergy-related adverse events following immunisation (AEFI) with 2015 seasonal trivalent influenza vaccines (TIV) by the Victorian state vaccine safety service, SAEFVIC. We describe SAEFVIC’s initial investigation and upon conclusion of the 2015 influenza vaccination programme, to define the signal event and implications for vaccine programmes. Allergy-related AEFI were defined as anaphylaxis, angioedema, urticaria or generalised allergic reaction. Investigations compared 2015 TIV AEFI reports to previous years as proportions and reporting risk (RR) per 100,000, stratified by influenza vaccine brand. The initial investigation showed an increased proportion of allergy-related AEFI compared with 2014 (25% vs 12%), predominantly in adults, with insufficient clinical severity to alter the programme risk-benefit. While overall TIV AEFI RR in 2015 was similar to previous years (RR: 1.07, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.88–1.29), we identified a near-doubling RR for allergy-related AEFI in 2015 (RR: 1.78, 95% CI: 1.14­– 2.80) from 2011 to 2014 with no difference by vaccine brand or severity increase identified. This increase in generalised allergy-related AEFI, across all used vaccine brands, supports evidence of variable reactogenicity arising from influenza vaccine strain variations. This investigation underlines the importance of effective seasonal influenza vaccine pharmacovigilance.

Nutritional genomics

2004 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 161-165 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick J. Stover
Keyword(s):  
Genome Stability ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
Dietary Recommendations ◽  
Nutritional Interventions ◽  
Complex Interactions ◽  
Nutritional Genomics ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Complex Chronic Disease ◽  
Nutritional Sciences

The integration of genomics into nutritional sciences has illuminated the complexity of genome responses to nutritional exposures while offering opportunities to increase the effectiveness of nutritional interventions, both clinical and population based. Nutrients elicit multiple physiological responses that affect genome stability, imprinting, expression, and viability. These effects confer both health benefits and risks, some of which may not become apparent until later in life. Nutritional genomics challenges us to understand the reciprocal and complex interactions among the human genome and dietary components in normal physiology and pathophysiology. Understanding these interactions will refine current definitions of benefit and risk and lead to the establishment of dietary recommendations that have a high predictive value, minimize the risk of unintended consequences, and account for the modifying effects of human genetic variation. Furthermore, nutritional genomics will enable the design of effective dietary regimens for the prevention and management of complex chronic disease. This review focuses on new perspectives that have been presented to the nutritional sciences by the advent of genomics, and new challenges that demand attention because of their potential impact on, and immediate translation into, current public health nutrition recommendations and interventions.

The EU, Africa and Economic Partnership Agreements: unintended consequences of policy leverage

2006 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
pp. 441-458 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Stevens
Keyword(s):  
Regional Integration ◽  
Research Evidence ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Trade Regimes ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
External Powers ◽  
The Eu

Sub-Saharan African (SSA) is negotiating a new trade regime with the European Union (EU), under the threat of increased barriers against its exports if agreement is not reached before 2008. This article examines the potential impact on regional integration of the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) being negotiated. Both sides pay lip service to greater regional integration, which is a stated objective of EPAs. But the article provides research evidence suggesting that EPAs will weaken regionalism, and in so doing adds to the literature on what happens when external powers attempt to use leverage to press trade policy change. Based on an analysis of SSA's trade with the EU, the article shows that countries may be encouraged to reinforce rather than eliminate barriers to the free circulation of goods between them, because of the choices they make in the details of their trade regimes with Europe. It also establishes a methodology that can be applied to new data as the negotiations progress.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF POPULATION IMMUNITY AGAINST INFLUENZA PRIOR TO 2014 AND 2015 EPIDEMIC SEASONS

2017 ◽  
pp. 53-60 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. V. Shipovalov ◽  
A. G. Durymanov ◽  
O. V. Petrova ◽  
E. V. Ivanova ◽  
A. V. Epanchintseva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Human Blood ◽  
Influenza A ◽  
Seasonal Influenza ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Influenza Viruses ◽  
The Urals ◽  
Population Immunity ◽  
Clade 2.3.2.1C ◽  
Sera Samples

Aim. Control for the population herd immunity against seasonal influenza viruses as well as for emergence of antibodies against influenza with pandemic potential in human blood sera. Materials and methods. HAI reaction against vaccine and epidemic influenza viruses as well as HPAI viruses A/rook/Chany/32/2015 (H5N1) (clade 2.3.2.1c.) andA/Anhui/01/2013 (H7N9). Results. Among all the sera samples collected in the autumn of 2014 and 2015, none had reacted in HAI against A(H5N1) and A(H7N9) antigens even at 1:10 dilution. Among samples collected in autumn 2014, 41% were positive to A/Califorrna/07/09(HlNlpdm09) virus, 36% - A/Texas/50/2012 (H3N2), 40% - B/Brisbane/60/2008 (Vict.lin.) and 47% reacted in HAI against the B/Massachusetts/2/2012 (Yam.lin.) strain. 22% of all the samples had a titer of at least 40 against all the antigens and only 10% in HAI had a titer of 40 or more against all the vaccine strains. Among the samples collected in autumn 2015, the number of seropositive against A/Califorrna/07/09(HlNlpdm09) varied from 31% in the Urals FD to 46% in the Southern FD. The amount of seropositive against A/Switzerland/9715293/13 (H3N2) strain was at the level of 4 - 13% in all the FDs except Urals, where this parameter was slightly above 30%. The amount of seropositive against vaccine influenza В viruses varied from 23 to 76%. Only 2% of sera had titers in HAI of 40 or above against all the vaccine strains, 29% of all the samples were seronegative. Conclusion. Population immunity in Russia against influenza A(H3N2) is at a very low level, thus socially significant consequences of influenza epidemics in many aspects will depend on the vaccination campaign of autumn 2016.

scholarly journals Assessing the Potential Impact of Immunity Waning on the Dynamics of COVID-19: An Endemic Model of COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
MUSA RABIU ◽  
Sarafa A. Iyaniwura
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Backward Bifurcation ◽  
Disease Dynamics ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Induced Immunity ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Abstract We developed an endemic model of COVID-19 to assess the impact of vaccination and immunity waning on the dynamics of the disease. Our model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation and bi-stability, where a stable disease-free equilibrium co-exists with a stable endemic equilibrium. The epidemiological implication of this is that the control reproduction number being less than unity is no longer sufficient to guarantee disease eradication. We showed that this phenomenon could be eliminated by either increasing the vaccine efficacy or by reducing the disease transmission rate (adhering to non-pharmaceutical interventions). Furthermore, we numerically investigated the impacts of vaccination and waning of both vaccine-induced immunity and post-recovery immunity on the disease dynamics. Our simulation results show that the waning of vaccine-induced immunity has more effect on the disease dynamics relative to post-recovery immunity waning, and suggests that more emphasis should be on reducing the waning of vaccine-induced immunity to eradicate COVID-19.

scholarly journals Seroepidemiology of diphtheria and pertussis in Luxembourg in 2000

2005 ◽  
Vol 134 (3) ◽  
pp. 573-578 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. MOSSONG ◽  
L. PUTZ ◽  
Z. SHKEDY ◽  
F. SCHNEIDER
Keyword(s):  
Children And Adolescents ◽  
Pertussis Vaccine ◽  
Neutralization Assay ◽  
Elisa Test ◽  
Antibody Activity ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
School Aged Children ◽  
Population Immunity ◽  
Vaccine Booster ◽  
Induced Immunity

A large serosurvey was carried out in Luxembourg in 2000–2001, to determine the population immunity against a number of vaccine-preventable infections including diphtheria and pertussis. Immunity to diphtheria and pertussis was assessed using an in-house neutralization assay and a commercial ELISA test respectively. Mean pertussis antibody activity decreased from 4 to 8 years of age, reflecting the effects of waning of vaccine-induced immunity. Mean pertussis antibody activity increased during adolescence due to infection in previously vaccinated individuals and levelled out after approximately 20 years of age. For adults >25 years age, a statistically significant 30% difference in mean antibody activity between men and women was observed. The proportion of seronegatives for diphtheria among children and adolescents aged <20 years was 2·5% reflecting the high vaccination coverage. The proportion seronegative for diphtheria tended to increase with age such that 42% of individuals aged >40 years were seronegative. Our study supports the recently introduced acellular pertussis vaccine booster at 6 years to reduce pertussis transmission in school-aged children and adolescents.

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