scholarly journals The timing of one-shot interventions for epidemic control

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Di Lauro ◽  
István Z. Kiss ◽  
Joel C. Miller
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Early Success ◽  
Large Peak ◽  
Two Peaks ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Policy Question ◽  
Comparable Size

AbstractThe apparent early success in China’s large-scale intervention to control the COVID-19 epidemic has led to interest in whether other countries can replicate it as well as concerns about a resurgence of the epidemic if or when China relaxes the interventions. In this paper we look at the impact of a single short-term intervention on an epidemic. We see that if an intervention cannot be sustained long-term, it has the greatest impact if it is imposed once infection levels have become large enough that there is an appreciable number of infections present. For minimising the total number infected it should start close to the peak so that there is no rebound once the intervention is stopped, while to minimise the peak prevalence, it should start earlier, allowing two peaks of comparable size rather than one very large peak. In populations with distinct subgroups, synchronized interventions are less effective than targeting the interventions in each sub-population separately.We do not attempt to clearly determine what makes an intervention sustainable or not. We believe that is a policy question. If an intervention is sustainable, it should be kept in place. Our intent is to offer insight into how best to time an intervention whose impact on society is too great to maintain.

scholarly journals The impact of digital technology use on adolescent well-being

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 135-142
Keyword(s):  
Digital Technology ◽  
Technology Use ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Adolescents And Adults ◽  
The Impact

This review provides an overview of the literature regarding digital technology use and adolescent well-being. Overall, findings imply that the general effects are on the negative end of the spectrum but very small. Effects differ depending on the type of use: whereas procrastination and passive use are related to more negative effects, social and active use are related to more positive effects. Digital technology use has stronger effects on short-term markers of hedonic well-being (eg, negative affect) than long-term measures of eudaimonic well-being (eg, life satisfaction). Although adolescents are more vulnerable, effects are comparable for both adolescents and adults. It appears that both low and excessive use are related to decreased well-being, whereas moderate use is related to increased well-being. The current research still has many limitations: High-quality studies with large-scale samples, objective measures of digital technology use, and experience sampling of well-being are missing.

A coupled model of rapidly-evolving subglacial hydrology with ice dynamics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael McPhail ◽  
Ian Hewitt
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Water Pressure ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Drainage System ◽  
Momentum Equation ◽  
Effective Pressure ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
The Impact

<p>The presence of subglacial water can have a significant effect on the motion of an ice sheet. The rate at which the ice slides over the bedrock is mediated by subglacial water pressure. Meltwater on the surface of the sheet can drain through cracks and moulins; drastically increasing the amount of water under the sheet. This source of water fluctuates seasonally and diurnally, much faster than the timescale associated with large-scale glacier evolution. We are interested in the effect that this short-term variation in the subglacial hydrology, and therefore water pressure, has on the long-term behaviour of the ice sheet.<span>  </span>In particular, we are interested in how important it is to resolve the short-timescale variations in ice sliding speed.</p><p> </p><p>We use a mathematical model to study the response of the subglacial drainage system to time-varying surface melt input. By coupling this subglacial hydrology through an effective-pressure-dependent sliding law to the momentum equation for the overlying ice sheet, we study the impact of short-term meltwater fluctuations on the ice velocity.<span>  </span>We study these interactions using a one-dimensional (1D) flowline model representing a confined glacier, allowing us to explore a range of couplings between the ice flow and hydrology.<span>  </span>This enables us to assess the influence of the fluctuating meltwater input on the long-term behaviour of the ice sheet. We find that using a time-averaged effective pressure with an asynchronous coupling to the momentum equation gives a reasonable estimate for the time-averaged ice-sheet velocity, despite the nonlinearity of the governing equations. We use the results to suggest how hydrological coupling might be achieved in larger-scale models where resolving the short-term fluctuations is likely to be infeasible. <span> </span></p>

scholarly journals The 2021 Bitcoin Bubbles and Crashes—Detection and Classification

Stats ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 950-970
Author(s):  
Min Shu ◽  
Ruiqiang Song ◽  
Wei Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Regularization Method ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Event Analysis ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Start Time ◽  
Market Regime ◽  
Real Time Identification ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Scale Data

In this study, the Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) model is adopted for real-time identification and monitoring of Bitcoin bubbles and crashes using different time scale data, and the modified Lagrange regularization method is proposed to alleviate the impact of potential LPPLS model over-fitting to better estimate bubble start time and market regime change. The goal here is to determine the nature of the bubbles and crashes (i.e., whether they are endogenous due to their own price evolution or exogenous due to external market and/or policy influences). A systematic market event analysis is performed and correlated to the Bitcoin bubbles detected. Based on the daily LPPLS confidence indictor from 1 December 1, 2019 to 24 June 2021, this analysis has disclosed that the Bitcoin boom from November 2020 to mid-January 2021 is an endogenous bubble, stemming from the self-reinforcement of cooperative herding and imitative behaviors of market players, while the price spike from mid-January 2021 to mid-April 2021 is likely an exogenous bubble driven by extrinsic events including a series of large-scale acquisitions and adoptions by well-known institutions such as Visa and Tesla. Finally, the utilities of multi-resolution LPPLS analysis in revealing both short-term changes and long-term states have also been demonstrated in this study.

SUMBER-SUMBER RESILIENSI PADA REMAJA AKHIR YANG MENGALAMI KEKERASAN DARI ORANGTUA PADA MASA KANAK-KANAK

Psibernetika ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Devina Calista ◽  
Garvin Garvin
Keyword(s):  
Late Adolescents ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Parental Affection ◽  
Resilience Factors ◽  
Childhood Violence ◽  
Past Experiences ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Depth Interviews

<p><em>Child abuse by parents is common in households. The impact of violence on children will bring short-term effects and long-term effects that can be attributed to their various emotional, behavioral and social problems in the future; especially in late adolescence that will enter adulthood. Resilience factors increase the likelihood that adolescents who are victims of childhood violence recover from their past experiences</em><em>,</em><em> become more powerful individuals and have a better life. The purpose of this study was to determine the source of resilience in late adolescents who experienced violence from parents in their childhood. This research uses qualitative research methods with in-depth interviews as a method of data collection. The result shows that the three research participants have the aspects of "I Have", "I Am", and "I Can"; a participant has "I Can" aspects as a source of resilience, and one other subject has no source of resilience. The study concluded that parental affection and acceptance of the past experience have role to the three sources of resilience (I Have, I Am, and I Can)</em></p><p><em> </em></p><p><strong><em>Keyword : </em></strong><em>Resilience, adolescence, violence, parents</em></p>

A Perspective On The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic in Basic Science Research and its Future implications

Coronaviruses ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 01 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yam Nath Paudel ◽  
Efthalia Angelopoulou ◽  
Bhupendra Raj Giri ◽  
Christina Piperi ◽  
Iekhsan Othman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Basic Science ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Preventive Measure ◽  
Science Research ◽  
Research Institutes ◽  
Basic Science Research ◽  
Long Term Consequences ◽  
Long Term Impact ◽  
The Impact

: COVID-19 has emerged as a devastating pandemic of the century that the current generations have ever experienced. The COVID-19 pandemic has infected more than 12 million people around the globe and 0.5 million people have succumbed to death. Due to the lack of effective vaccines against the COVID-19, several nations throughout the globe has imposed a lock-down as a preventive measure to lower the spread of COVID-19 infection. As a result of lock-down most of the universities and research institutes has witnessed a long pause in basic science research ever. Much has been talked about the long-term impact of COVID-19 in economy, tourism, public health, small and large-scale business of several kind. However, the long-term implication of these research lab shutdown and its impact in the basic science research has not been much focused. Herein, we provide a perspective that portrays a common problem of all the basic science researchers throughout the globe and its long-term consequences.

scholarly journals Anti-meningococcal B vaccination in Italian adolescents: a cost-effective health opportunity

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
D Panatto ◽  
P Landa ◽  
D Amicizia ◽  
P L Lai ◽  
E Lecini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Dose Schedule ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Invasive Disease ◽  
International Setting ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Invasive disease due to Neisseria meningitidis (Nm) is a serious public health problem even in developed countries, owing to its high lethality rate (8-15%) and the invalidating sequelae suffered by many (up to 60%) survivors. As the microorganism is transmitted via the airborne route, the only available weapon in the fight against Nm invasive disease is vaccination. Our aim was to carry out an HTA to evaluate the costs and benefits of anti-meningococcal B (MenB) vaccination with Trumenba® in adolescents in Italy, while also considering the impact of this new vaccination strategy on organizational and ethics aspects. Methods A lifetime Markov model was developed. MenB vaccination with the two-dose schedule of Trumenba® in adolescents was compared with 'non-vaccination'. Two perspectives were considered: the National Health Service (NHS) and society. Three disease phases were defined: acute, post-acute and long-term. Epidemiological, economic and health utilities data were taken from Italian and international literature. The analysis was conducted by means of Microsoft Excel 2010®. Results Our study indicated that vaccinating adolescents (11th year of life) with Trumenba® was cost-effective with an ICER = € 7,912/QALY from the NHS perspective and € 7,758/QALY from the perspective of society. Vaccinating adolescents reduces the number of cases of disease due to meningococcus B in one of the periods of highest incidence of the disease, resulting in significant economic and health savings. Conclusions This is the first study to evaluate the overall impact of free MenB vaccination in adolescents both in Italy and in the international setting. Although cases of invasive disease due to meningococcus B are few, if the overall impact of the disease is adequately considered, it becomes clear that including anti-meningococcal B vaccination into the immunization program for adolescents is strongly recommended from the health and economic standpoints. Key messages Free, large-scale MenB vaccination is key to strengthening the global fight against invasive meningococcal disease. Anti-meningococcal B vaccination in adolescents is a cost-effective health opportunity.

scholarly journals Using syndromic measures of mortality to capture the dynamics of COVID-19 in Java, Indonesia, in the context of vaccination rollout

BMC Medicine ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bimandra A. Djaafara ◽  
Charles Whittaker ◽  
Oliver J. Watson ◽  
Robert Verity ◽  
Nicholas F. Brazeau ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Additional Insight ◽  
Short Term ◽  
If Current ◽  
Vaccine Impact ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Insight Into

Abstract Background As in many countries, quantifying COVID-19 spread in Indonesia remains challenging due to testing limitations. In Java, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented throughout 2020. However, as a vaccination campaign launches, cases and deaths are rising across the island. Methods We used modelling to explore the extent to which data on burials in Jakarta using strict COVID-19 protocols (C19P) provide additional insight into the transmissibility of the disease, epidemic trajectory, and the impact of NPIs. We assess how implementation of NPIs in early 2021 will shape the epidemic during the period of likely vaccine rollout. Results C19P burial data in Jakarta suggest a death toll approximately 3.3 times higher than reported. Transmission estimates using these data suggest earlier, larger, and more sustained impact of NPIs. Measures to reduce sub-national spread, particularly during Ramadan, substantially mitigated spread to more vulnerable rural areas. Given current trajectory, daily cases and deaths are likely to increase in most regions as the vaccine is rolled out. Transmission may peak in early 2021 in Jakarta if current levels of control are maintained. However, relaxation of control measures is likely to lead to a subsequent resurgence in the absence of an effective vaccination campaign. Conclusions Syndromic measures of mortality provide a more complete picture of COVID-19 severity upon which to base decision-making. The high potential impact of the vaccine in Java is attributable to reductions in transmission to date and dependent on these being maintained. Increases in control in the relatively short-term will likely yield large, synergistic increases in vaccine impact.

Forecasting Revenue Impacts from COVID-19: The Case of Florida Municipalities

2021 ◽  
pp. 0160323X2110120
Author(s):  
Hai (David) Guo ◽  
Can Chen
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Fiscal Planning ◽  
Revenue Structure ◽  
Municipal Managers ◽  
The Impact

Early in the pandemic, Florida municipal managers indicated that forecasting the impact on local revenues was one of their top priorities in responding to the pandemic, yet such a tool has not been widely available. This study offers simple and straightforward fiscal planning guides for assessing the short-term and long-term impacts of the COVID 19 recession on local government revenues by estimating the revenue declines among 411 Florida municipalities from FY 2021 to FY 2023. The forecast results predict revenues will be reduced by $5.11 billion from 2019 pre-pandemic levels for Florida cities in fiscal years 2021 through 2023. The decline is forecast to be 3.54 percent in FY 2021, 4.02 percent in FY 2022, and 3.29 percent in FY 2023. The revenue structure matters for estimating the revenue decline.

scholarly journals Paleolithic Diet—Effect on the Health Status and Performance of Athletes?

Nutrients ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1019
Author(s):  
Barbara Frączek ◽  
Aleksandra Pięta ◽  
Adrian Burda ◽  
Paulina Mazur-Kurach ◽  
Florentyna Tyrała
Keyword(s):  
Blood Pressure ◽  
Body Mass ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Model Assessment ◽  
Paleolithic Diet ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this meta-analysis was to review the impact of a Paleolithic diet (PD) on selected health indicators (body composition, lipid profile, blood pressure, and carbohydrate metabolism) in the short and long term of nutrition intervention in healthy and unhealthy adults. A systematic review of randomized controlled trials of 21 full-text original human studies was conducted. Both the PD and a variety of healthy diets (control diets (CDs)) caused reduction in anthropometric parameters, both in the short and long term. For many indicators, such as weight (body mass (BM)), body mass index (BMI), and waist circumference (WC), impact was stronger and especially found in the short term. All diets caused a decrease in total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and triglycerides (TG), albeit the impact of PD was stronger. Among long-term studies, only PD cased a decline in TC and LDL-C. Impact on blood pressure was observed mainly in the short term. PD caused a decrease in fasting plasma (fP) glucose, fP insulin, and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) in the short run, contrary to CD. In the long term, only PD caused a decrease in fP glucose and fP insulin. Lower positive impact of PD on performance was observed in the group without exercise. Positive effects of the PD on health and the lack of experiments among professional athletes require longer-term interventions to determine the effect of the Paleo diet on athletic performance.

Overburdened Gauls: the case of Florus and Sacrovir’s revolt of 21 CE

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jared Kreiner
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Cumulative Effect ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Local Economies ◽  
Scale Resistance ◽  
Military Campaigns ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In 21 CE, a series of localized movements broke out in Gallia Comata due to heavy debts among provincials according to Tacitus. Modern scholars have long argued that the indebtedness occurred because of rising interest rates, resulting from dwindling currency in circulation after decades of free-spending following Augustus’ victory at Actium, and that Gallic communities were subjected to an additional tribute to support the wars of Germanicus (14–16 CE), which continued unabated after the wars and pushed Gauls beyond their means. These claims are misguided, however, in that there is no certain evidence of a special tax to support Germanicus’ wars and that the argument for a dwindling circulation of currency in Gaul falters under closer inspection. Rather, the pressing statal and military needs imposed on communities in Gallia Comata after 9 CE on top of routine exactions could significantly increase burden levels levied on provincial populations, thus contributing to rising debts. Through examining how Roman logistics and conscription operated in this period, it is possible to trace how populations were impacted by such demands and which communities were most heavily affected by them, too. Individually, the impact of each factor is unlikely to have been burdensome enough to have caused large-scale resistance, it is only the cumulative effect that these explanations had on top of routine Roman extraction schemes that could create the conditions for this revolt. This paper argues that in extraordinary circumstances, such as the period after the Varian Disaster for Gallia Comata, the costs of supporting military campaigns places real short-term strains on local economies, which creates the conditions for revolt. The benefit of this approach is that it may explain other episodes of anti-fiscal resistance that broke out during or within a decade of wars in neighboring regions.

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