scholarly journals Decentralized governance may lead to higher infection levels and sub-optimal releases of quarantines amid the COVID-19 pandemic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Lampert
Keyword(s):  
Game Theory ◽  
Theory Model ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Infection Level ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Decentralized Governance ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Parameter Values ◽  
Decentralized Government

AbstractThe outbreak of the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) has lead countries worldwide to administer quarantine policies. However, each country or state decides independently what mobility restrictions to administer within its borders, while aiming to maximize its own citizens’ welfare. In turn, since individuals travel between countries and states, at least during periods when quarantines are less restrictive, the policy in one country may ultimately affect the infection level in other countries. Therefore, major questions are whether the policy dictated by a decentralized government is efficient, and if not, how the governments can coordinate a better policy. Here, we focus on the decision regarding the timing of releasing the quarantines. We consider a game theory model in which each of two governments decides when to switch from a restrictive to a non-restrictive quarantine and vice versa. We used parameter values driven by the literature and publically available data. We show that, if travel is sufficiently frequent during the non-restrictive quarantine periods, then the strategies are sub-optimal: Each governor tends to release the quarantine sooner, which ultimately leads to longer periods of restrictive quarantines and a higher prevalence of the disease. In turn, if the governments restrict international and interstate travel to a low level even when the quarantines are non-restrictive, the policy dictated by the decentralized governance may become optimal.

scholarly journals Modeling and Forecasting of COVID-19 Spreading by Delayed Stochastic Differential Equations

Axioms ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 18
Author(s):  
Marouane Mahrouf ◽  
Adnane Boukhouima ◽  
Houssine Zine ◽  
El Mehdi Lotfi ◽  
Delfim F. M. Torres ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Data ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Population Parameter ◽  
The Novel ◽  
First Case ◽  
Epidemiological Trend ◽  
Modeling And Forecasting ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Parameter Values ◽  
Stochastic Time

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pneumonia has posed a great threat to the world recent months by causing many deaths and enormous economic damage worldwide. The first case of COVID-19 in Morocco was reported on 2 March 2020, and the number of reported cases has increased day by day. In this work, we extend the well-known SIR compartmental model to deterministic and stochastic time-delayed models in order to predict the epidemiological trend of COVID-19 in Morocco and to assess the potential role of multiple preventive measures and strategies imposed by Moroccan authorities. The main features of the work include the well-posedness of the models and conditions under which the COVID-19 may become extinct or persist in the population. Parameter values have been estimated from real data and numerical simulations are presented for forecasting the COVID-19 spreading as well as verification of theoretical results.

scholarly journals Why lockdown? Simplified arithmetic tools for decision-makers, health professionals, journalists and the general public to explore containment options for the novel coronavirus

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerry F. Killeen ◽  
Samson S Kiware
Keyword(s):  
National Level ◽  
Epidemiological Surveillance ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Minimal Impact ◽  
High Incidence ◽  
United Republic Of Tanzania ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
User Friendly ◽  
Parameter Values

SummaryHalf the world’s population is already under lock-down and the remainder will have to follow if the ongoing novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) virus pandemic is to be contained. Faced with such brutally difficult decisions, it is essential that as many people as possible understand (1) why lock-down interventions represent the only realistic way for individual countries to contain their national-level epidemics before they turn into public health catastrophes, (2) why these need to be implemented so early, so aggressively and for such extended periods, and (3) why international co-operation to conditionally re-open trade and travel between countries that have successfully eliminated local transmission represents the only way to contain the pandemic at global level. Here we present simplified arithmetic models of COVID-19 transmission, control and elimination in user-friendly Shiny and Excel formats that allow non-specialists to explore, query, critique and understand the containment decisions facing their country and the world at large. Based on parameter values representative of the United Republic of Tanzania, which is still early enough in its epidemic cycle and response to avert a national catastrophe, national containment and elimination with less than 10 deaths is predicted for highly rigorous lock down within 5 weeks of the first confirmed cases and maintained for 15 weeks. However, elimination may only be sustained if case importation from outside the country is comprehensively contained by isolating for three weeks all incoming travellers, except those from countries certified as COVID-free in the future. Any substantive relaxation of these assumptions, specifically shortening the lock-down period, less rigorous lock-down or imperfect importation containment, may facilitate epidemic re-initiation, resulting in over half a million deaths unless rigorously contained a second time. Removing contact tracing and isolation has minimal impact on successful containment trajectories because high incidence of similar mild symptoms caused by other common pathogens attenuates detection success of COVID-19 testing. Nevertheless, contact tracing is recommended as an invaluable epidemiological surveillance platform for monitoring and characterizing the epidemic, and for understanding the influence of interventions on transmission dynamics.

A study of anxiety during COVID-19 outbreak among adults in Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 1-4
Author(s):  
Rahajeng Win Martani ◽  
Sri Mumpuni Yuniarsih
Keyword(s):  
Anxiety Level ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Adult Age ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Sample Data ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Adaptation Ability

Coronavirus or well known as COVID 19 emerged in Wuhan (China) in the end of 2019. WHO’s situation report on January 30th 2020 reported 7818 total confirmed cases worldwide, with the majority occurred in China and 82 cases reported in 18 countries outside China. The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the Covid-19 outbreak a global pandemic as the novel coronavirus continues to rapidly spread worldwide. The rapid increase of COVID-19 new cases makes everyone feel anxious. Anxiety causes a person to respond negatively, therefore people cannot perform good self-management. This study aimed to describe anxiety among people during COVID 19 outbreak in Indonesia. A descriptive study was used to meet the aim of this study. 93 adults and teenagers were recruited and asked to complete a google form questionnaire by self-administrated method. HARS questionnaire was applied as an instrument to measure anxiety. An accidental sampling method was conducted to collect the sample. Data analysis was conducted using descriptive statistic to examine age, living status, educational level, working type, and anxiety level. This study showed that 91.4% respondents were in adult age, 94.6 were living with family member, 66.7% were bachelor and higher, and 36.3% were working as government employees. Anxiety level in this study was divided into three categories. Majority of respondent were having low level of anxiety (88%), 10% were moderate, and the rest (2%) were high anxiety. Highly number of low categories in COVID-19 anxiety means a lot of possibilities. People have an adaptation ability to face every situation in their life. Moreover, this bad situation affect to whole life aspects. Healthcare provider should be prepared as the database of anxiety categories was in low level. Further research should aware wheter this low categories means good or bad for society.

Comparative docking of SARS-CoV-2 receptors antagonists from repurposing drugs

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Micael Davi Lima de Oliveira ◽  
Kelson Mota Teixeira de Oliveira
Keyword(s):  
World Health Organisation ◽  
World Health ◽  
Lung Cells ◽  
The Novel ◽  
High Modulation ◽  
Main Protease ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Viral Receptors ◽  
Theoretical Results

According to the World Health Organisation, until 16 June, 2020, the number of confirmed and notified cases of COVID-19 has already exceeded 7.9 million with approximately 434 thousand deaths worldwide. This research aimed to find repurposing antagonists, that may inhibit the activity of the main protease (Mpro) of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, as well as partially modulate the ACE2 receptors largely found in lung cells, and reduce viral replication by inhibiting Nsp12 RNA polymerase. Docking molecular simulations were performed among a total of 60 structures, most of all, published in the literature against the novel coronavirus. The theoretical results indicated that, in comparative terms, paritaprevir, ivermectin, ledipasvir, and simeprevir, are among the most theoretical promising drugs in remission of symptoms from the disease. Furthermore, also corroborate indinavir to the high modulation in viral receptors. The second group of promising drugs includes remdesivir and azithromycin. The repurposing drugs HCQ and chloroquine were not effective in comparative terms to other drugs, as monotherapies, against SARS-CoV-2 infection.

SARS-COV2 virus and Coronavirus disease (COVID-19)

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽  
pp. 977-982
Author(s):  
Mohamed J. Saadh ◽  
Bashar Haj Rashid M ◽  
Roa’a Matar ◽  
Sajeda Riyad Aldibs ◽  
Hala Sbaih ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Close Contact ◽  
Antiviral Agents ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
Fatal Disease ◽  
Mild Disease ◽  
Life Threatening ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

SARS-COV2 virus causes Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and represents the causative agent of a potentially fatal disease that is of great global public health concern. The novel coronavirus (2019) was discovered in 2019 in Wuhan, the market of the wet animal, China with viral pneumonia cases and is life-threatening. Today, WHO announces COVID-19 outbreak as a pandemic. COVID-19 is likely to be zoonotic. It is transmitted from bats as intermediary animals to human. Also, the virus is transmitted from human to human who is in close contact with others. The computerized tomographic chest scan is usually abnormal even in those with no symptoms or mild disease. Treatment is nearly supportive; the role of antiviral agents is yet to be established. The SARS-COV2 virus spreads faster than its two ancestors, the SARS-CoV and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), but has lower fatality. In this article, we aimed to summarize the transmission, symptoms, pathogenesis, diagnosis, treatment, and vaccine to control the spread of this fatal disease.

Coronavirus: Towards controlling of the pandemic - Indian scenario

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽  
pp. 462-468
Author(s):  
Latika kothari ◽  
Sanskruti Wadatkar ◽  
Roshni Taori ◽  
Pavan Bajaj ◽  
Diksha Agrawal
Keyword(s):  
Control Measures ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Medical Treatments ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
The Public ◽  
Infection Control Measures ◽  
The Social ◽  
Asking Questions ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a communicable infection caused by the novel coronavirus resulting in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV). It was recognized to be a health crisis for the general population of international concern on 30th January 2020 and conceded as a pandemic on 11th March 2020. India is taking various measures to fight this invisible enemy by adopting different strategies and policies. To stop the COVID-19 from spreading, the Home Affairs Ministry and the health ministry, of India, has issued the nCoV 19 guidelines on travel. Screening for COVID-19 by asking questions about any symptoms, recent travel history, and exposure. India has been trying to get testing kits available. The government of India has enforced various laws like the social distancing, Janata curfew, strict lockdowns, screening door to door to control the spread of novel coronavirus. In this pandemic, innovative medical treatments are being explored, and a proper vaccine is being hunted to deal with the situation. Infection control measures are necessary to prevent the virus from further spreading and to help control the current situation. Thus, this review illustrates and explains the criteria provided by the government of India to the awareness of the public to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

Association and treatment of diabetes in patients affected by Covid-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽  
pp. 1198-1201
Author(s):  
Syed Yasir Afaque
Keyword(s):  
Diabetes Mellitus ◽  
Prognostic Value ◽  
Heart Diseases ◽  
The Novel ◽  
The World ◽  
Treatment Of Diabetes ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Composite Outcomes ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact

In December 2019, a unique coronavirus infection, SARS-CoV-2, was first identified in the province of Wuhan in China. Since then, it spread rapidly all over the world and has been responsible for a large number of morbidity and mortality among humans. According to a latest study, Diabetes mellitus, heart diseases, Hypertension etc. are being considered important risk factors for the development of this infection and is also associated with unfavorable outcomes in these patients. There is little evidence concerning the trail back of these patients possibly because of a small number of participants and people who experienced primary composite outcomes (such as admission in the ICU, usage of machine-driven ventilation or even fatality of these patients). Until now, there are no academic findings that have proven independent prognostic value of diabetes on death in the novel Coronavirus patients. However, there are several conjectures linking Diabetes with the impact as well as progression of COVID-19 in these patients. The aim of this review is to acknowledge about the association amongst Diabetes and the novel Coronavirus and the result of the infection in such patients.

The role and relationship of mindreading and social attunement in HRI – position statements of interdisciplinary researchers. Workshop HRI'20

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Wykowska ◽  
Jairo Pérez-Osorio ◽  
Stefan Kopp
Keyword(s):  
Mental States ◽  
Human Robot Interaction ◽  
Human Interaction ◽  
Artificial Agents ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Robot Interaction ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship

This booklet is a collection of the position statements accepted for the HRI’20 conference workshop “Social Cognition for HRI: Exploring the relationship between mindreading and social attunement in human-robot interaction” (Wykowska, Perez-Osorio & Kopp, 2020). Unfortunately, due to the rapid unfolding of the novel coronavirus at the beginning of the present year, the conference and consequently our workshop, were canceled. On the light of these events, we decided to put together the positions statements accepted for the workshop. The contributions collected in these pages highlight the role of attribution of mental states to artificial agents in human-robot interaction, and precisely the quality and presence of social attunement mechanisms that are known to make human interaction smooth, efficient, and robust. These papers also accentuate the importance of the multidisciplinary approach to advance the understanding of the factors and the consequences of social interactions with artificial agents.

The Political Impact of Affective Polarization: How Partisan Animus Shapes COVID-19 Attitudes

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Druckman ◽  
Samara Klar ◽  
Yanna Krupnikov ◽  
Matthew Levendusky ◽  
John B. Ryan
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
American Politics ◽  
The Other ◽  
Policy Discourse ◽  
The Political ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Political Impact ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Citizens Attitudes

Affective polarization is a defining feature of 21st century American politics—partisans harbor considerable dislike and distrust of those from the other party. Does this animus have consequences for citizens’ opinions? Such effects would highlight not only the consequences of polarization, but also shed new light onto how citizens form preferences more generally. Normally, this question is intractable, but the outbreak of the novel coronavirus allows us to answer it. We find that affective polarization powerfully shapes citizens’ attitudes about the pandemic, as well as the actions they have taken in response to it. However, these effects are conditional on the local severity of the outbreak, as the effects decline in areas with high caseloads—threat vitiates partisan reasoning. Our results clarify that closing the divide on important issues requires not just policy discourse but also attempts to reduce inter-partisan hostility.

Curve Estimation Modeling for Predictions of the Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19) Epidemic in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Christian Ebere Enyoh ◽  
Andrew Wirnkor Verla ◽  
Chidi Edbert Duru ◽  
Emmanuel Chinedu Enyoh ◽  
Budi Setiawan
Keyword(s):  
State Governments ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Curve Estimation ◽  
Exponential Models ◽  
Inverse Models ◽  
Forward Prediction ◽  
S Curve ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Best Fit ◽  
Official Data

Based on the official Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) data, the current research paper modeled the confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Nigeria. Ten different curve regression models including linear, logarithmic, inverse, quadratic, cubic, compound, power, S-curve, growth, and exponential were used to fit the obtained official data. The cubic (R2 = 0.999) model gave the best fit for the entire country. However, the growth and exponential had the lowest standard error of estimate (0.958) and thus may best be used. The equations for these models were e0.78897+0.0944x and 2.2011e0.0944x respectively. In terms of confirmed cases in individual State, quadratic, cubic, compound, growth, power and exponential models generally best describe the official data for many states except for the state of Kogi which is best fitted with S-curve and inverse models.  The error between the model and the official data curve is quite small especially for compound, power, growth and exponential models. The computed models will help to realized forward prediction and backward inference of the epidemic situation in Nigeria, and the relevant analysis help Federal and State governments to make vital decisions on how to manage the lockdown in the country.

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