scholarly journals Extrapolation of Infection Data for the CoVid-19 Virus in 21 Countries and States and Estimate of the Efficiency of Lock Down

Author(s):  
Walter Langel

AbstractPredictions about the further development of the Corona pandemic are of great public interest but many approaches demand a large number of country specific parameters and are not easily transferable. A special interest of simulations on the pandemic is to trace the effect of politics for reducing the virus spread, since these measures have had an enormous impact on economy and daily life.Here a simple yet powerful algorithm is introduced for fitting the infection numbers by simple analytic functions. This way, the increase of the case numbers in periods with different regulations can be distinguished, and by extrapolating the fit functions, a forecast for the maximum numbers and time scales are possible. The effect of the restraints such as lock down are demonstrated by comparing the resulting infection history with the likely unconstrained virus spread, and it is shown that a delay of 1-4 weeks before imposing measures aiming at social distancing could have led to a complete infection of the respective populations.The approach is simply transferable to many different states. Here data from six E.U. countries, the UK, Russia, two Asian countries, the USA and ten states inside the USA with significant case numbers are analyzed, and striking qualitative similarities are found.Keywords: Covid-19, forecast, analytic fit, France, Germany, Italy, Spain South Korea, New York, Washington, Florida, Michigan, Poland, Sweden, USA, Pennsylvania, China, Russia, UK, California, Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, North Carolina.

BMJ Open ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (10) ◽  
pp. e018394 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dörthe Brüggmann ◽  
Jana Kollascheck ◽  
David Quarcoo ◽  
Michael H Bendels ◽  
Doris Klingelhöfer ◽  
...  

ObjectiveAbout 2% of all pregnancies are complicated by the implantation of the zygote outside the uterine cavity and termed ectopic pregnancy. Whereas a multitude of guidelines exists and related research is constantly growing, no thorough assessment of the global research architecture has been performed yet. Hence, we aim to assess the associated scientific activities in relation to geographical and chronological developments, existing research networks and socioeconomic parameters.DesignRetrospective, descriptive study.SettingOn the basis of the NewQIS platform, scientometric methods were combined with novel visualising techniques such as density-equalising mapping to assess the scientific output on ectopic pregnancy. Using the Web of Science, we identified all related entries from 1900 to 2012.Results8040 publications were analysed. The USA and the UK were dominating the field in regard to overall research activity (2612 and 723 publications), overall citation numbers and country-specific H-Indices (US: 80, UK: 42). Comparison to economic power of the most productive countries demonstrated that Israel invested more resources in ectopic pregnancy-related research than other nations (853.41 ectopic pregnancy-specific publications per 1000 billlion US$ gross domestic product (GDP)), followed by the UK (269.97). Relation to the GDP per capita index revealed 49.3 ectopic pregnancy-specific publications per US$1000 GDP per capita for the USA in contrast to 17.31 for the UK. Semiqualitative indices such as country-specific citation rates ranked Switzerland first (24.7 citations per ectopic pregnancy-specific publication), followed by the Scandinavian countries Finland and Sweden. Low-income countries did not exhibit significant research activities.ConclusionsThis is the first in-depth analysis of global ectopic pregnancy research since 1900. It offers unique insights into the global scientific landscape. Besides the USA and the UK, Scandinavian countries and Switzerland can also be regarded as leading nations with regard to their relative socioeconomic input.


Popular Music ◽  
1983 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 107-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Toru Mitsui

The record and tape sales figures of the Japanese record industry have exceeded those of the industries of all other capitalist nations, except the USA, since the mid-seventies. In 1980, Japan's share amounted to 13.9 per cent of all sales in the capitalist sphere according to surveys by Billboard. The USA had 35.8 per cent, West Germany 11.6 per cent, the UK 11.6 per cent and France 7.3 per cent (Kawabata 1977, p. 22; 1982, pp. 91, 199). The output of foreign records, recorded and pressed by Japanese companies, to foreign records, pressed by Japanese companies from masters recorded by foreign companies primarily for their own consumers, has been about three to two. A good many of these foreign records are of American and European popular music, and in this field one can perceive a new and interesting tendency to promote and succeed with artists who are or were less successful in their own country. The tendency, whose background I am going to discuss here, started in the mid-seventies; one of the early examples is provided by Kiss, a New York group, which was shrewdly promoted and achieved wide popularity in Japan before succeeding nationwide in America.


2020 ◽  
Vol 76 (5) ◽  
pp. 289-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jane L. Lynch ◽  
Margarita Barrientos-Pérez ◽  
Mona Hafez ◽  
Muhammad Yazid Jalaludin ◽  
Margarita Kovarenko ◽  
...  

<b><i>Background:</i></b> With increased awareness of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in children and adolescents, an overview of country-specific differences in epidemiology data is needed to develop a global picture of the disease development. <b><i>Summary:</i></b> This study examined country-specific prevalence and incidence data of youth-onset T2D published between 2008 and 2019, and searched for national guidelines to expand the understanding of country-specific similarities and differences. Of the 1,190 articles and 17 congress abstracts identified, 58 were included in this review. Our search found the highest reported prevalence rates of youth-onset T2D in China (520 cases/100,000 people) and the USA (212 cases/100,000) and lowest in Denmark (0.6 cases/100,000) and Ireland (1.2 cases/100,000). However, the highest incidence rates were reported in Taiwan (63 cases/100,000) and the UK (33.2 cases/100,000), with the lowest in Fiji (0.43 cases/100,000) and Austria (0.6 cases/100,000). These differences in epidemiology data may be partly explained by variations in the diagnostic criteria used within studies, screening recommendations within national guidelines and race/ethnicity within countries. <b><i>Key Messages:</i></b> Our study suggests that published country-specific epidemiology data for youth-onset T2D are varied and scant, and often with reporting inconsistencies. Finding optimal diagnostic criteria and screening strategies for this disease should be of high interest to every country. <b><i>Trial Registration:</i></b> Not applicable.


Author(s):  
Uta A. Balbier

This chapter explores the Billy Graham revival campaigns in Washington, London, New York, and Berlin in the 1950s as expressions of a transnational religious revival that took place simultaneously in the USA, Germany, and the UK. During this short-lived revival, discourses around Christianity, anti-Communism, democracy, and the Free World blended, produced new forms of civil religious identities, and seemed to briefly challenge secularization processes. The chapter explores the mindset of political and religious leaders who supported the Billy Graham Crusades as well as the staging of events as important performances in the transnational culture of the Cold War. It argues that despite obvious differences in the religious landscapes on both sides of the Atlantic regarding church attendance and the role of religion in political discourse, there still existed significant similarities. These can only be explained when taking transnational phenomena such as Cold War culture or secularization processes into consideration.


2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (suppl_1) ◽  
pp. S7-S7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heidi Soeters ◽  
Amy Blain ◽  
How-Yi Chang ◽  
Melissa Whaley ◽  
Jessica Macneil

Abstract Background Serogroup W (NmW) meningococcal disease is a rare but severe infection. Following an NmW outbreak after the Hajj in 2000, NmW disease, predominantly caused by sequence type (ST)-11 clonal complex (cc), rapidly increased in South Africa, South America, and the UK. We describe NmW meningococcal disease epidemiology in the USA during 2010–2015. Methods Data were collected from the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System, Active Bacterial Core surveillance, and state health departments. Isolates were serogrouped via slide agglutination and real-time polymerase chain reaction. For cases lacking a serogroup result at CDC, the state result was used. Case-fatality ratios (CFR) were calculated using the proportion of cases with known outcomes as the denominator. cc and ST were determined using multilocus sequence typing (MLST). Results From 2010 to 2015, 3,504 meningococcal disease cases were reported to CDC; 2,976 (85%) had a serogroup result, of which 290 (10%) were NmW. Although the number of NmW cases reported annually remained fairly stable (range: 40–57), the total number of reported meningococcal disease cases decreased by 60%, and the proportion of cases due to NmW increased from 6% (42/830) in 2010 to 12% (40/332) in 2015. The majority of NmW cases were reported from five states: Florida (n = 106), California (n = 31), New York (n = 25), Georgia (n = 19), and Oregon (n = 11). Half of people with NmW disease were male, 185 (64%) were white, and 84 (29%) were Hispanic. The median age was 51 years (interquartile range: 26–70). Overall, 20% (52/259) of NmW cases were fatal, compared with CFRs for serogroups B (15%), Y (18%), or C (24%). NmW CFR was highest among adults aged 50–59 years (38%). MLST results were available for 119 (41%) of NmW cases: 76 (64%) were cc11, 40 (34%) were cc22, and 1 each were cc23, cc32, and an unassigned cc. cc appeared to be geographically associated: cc11 was concentrated in Florida and Georgia, while cc22 predominated on the West coast. Within cc11, the majority of isolates (86%) were ST-11, and within cc22 the majority (73%) were ST-22. Conclusion A rapid increase in NmW disease has not been observed in the USA. Most NmW cases were reported in a limited number of states, with geographic differences in clonal complex. Disclosures All authors: No reported disclosures.


2020 ◽  
pp. 2002504
Author(s):  
C. Finn McQuaid ◽  
Ted Cohen ◽  
Anna S. Dean ◽  
Rein M.G.J. Houben ◽  
Gwenan M. Knight ◽  
...  

Previous analyses suggest children with tuberculosis (TB) are no more or no less likely to have multidrug- or rifampicin-resistant TB (MDR/RR-TB) than adults. However, the availability of new data, particularly for high MDR/RR-TB burden countries, suggest updates of country-specific estimates are warranted.We used data from population-representative surveys and surveillance collected between 2000 and 2018 to compare the odds ratio (OR) of MDR/RR-TB among children (<15 years) with TB, compared to the odds of MDR/RR-TB among adults (≥15 years) with TB.In most settings (45/55 countries), and globally as a whole, there is no evidence that age is associated with odds of MDR/RR-TB. However, in some settings such as former Soviet Union countries in general, and Georgia, Kazakhstan, Lithuania, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in particular, as well as Peru, MDR/RR-TB is positively associated with age ≥15. Meanwhile, in Western Europe in general, and the UK, Poland, Finland and Luxembourg in particular, MDR/RR-TB is positively associated with age <15. Sixteen countries had sufficient data to compare over time between 2000–2011 and 2012–2018, with evidence for decreases in the OR in children compared to adults in Germany, Kazakhstan and the USA.Our results support findings that in most settings a child with TB is as likely as an adult with TB to have MDR/RR-TB. However, setting-specific heterogeneity requires further investigation. Further, the OR for MDR/RR-TB in children compared to adults is generally either stable or decreasing. There are important gaps in detection, recording and reporting of drug resistance among paediatric TB cases, limiting our understanding of transmission risks and measures needed to combat the global TB epidemic.


Author(s):  
Jeremy Green

This chapter argues that the radicalization of monetary policy, regulatory transformation, and central bank innovation in the US and the UK emerged out of institutional complementarities and interdependencies generated by Anglo-American development. The development of offshore markets in the City of London led bankers on both sides of the Atlantic to push for further domestic liberalization, as competition between London and New York intensified. US banks pressured regulators to replicate the City's offshore conditions, which gradually eroded New Deal-era financial regulations. These dynamics, alongside the Fed's failure to regulate the Euromarkets, demonstrated both the limits on US monetary policy autonomy and the importance of the transatlantic impetus to liberalization emerging from Anglo-American financial integration. Embracing monetarism, Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan made clear that price stability would be restored and that working-class solidarity would be broken. In the absence of the Bretton Woods framework, both states demonstrated their commitment to internalizing discipline through extreme applications of monetary policy and direct confrontations with the labor movement. Ultimately, developments in the UK and the US led the way for the broader adoption of neoliberalism within the global political economy and the further development of financialization.


2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 582-598
Author(s):  
Margaret A Young ◽  
Emma Nyhan ◽  
Hilary Charlesworth

Abstract Countries engage with the International Court of Justice (ICJ) as litigants, as participants in advisory proceedings and, less directly, through contributions of nationals as judges or lawyers. A broad range of scholarship within the discipline of public international law examines this engagement. Specific regional experiences are often emphasized and grouped, for example, by western, African or Asian accounts. Yet the nature and extent of scholarship on a single country’s engagement with the Court are less commonly explored. This article surveys scholarly approaches to specific domestic engagement with the ICJ. It focuses on six countries—Australia, France, Nicaragua, Russia, the UK and the USA—and examines the scholarship generated by each of these countries’ encounters with the Court. This scholarship provides insights into politics, history, institutional practice, professional experience and international legal doctrine. Preliminary in scope, the article points to the value of empirical, historical and country-specific accounts of the work of the ICJ.


1975 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 258-259
Author(s):  
A. R. Kemal

The developed economies, except the USA and Canada, have each imple¬mented a Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) in order to encourage exports of the developing countries. Since the tariffs imposed on the imports from the developing countries are relatively small under the GSP, the developing countries have an advantage in the exports of commodities covered by the GSP., The GSPs. of different countries vary in product coverage, depth of tariff cuts', safeguard measures for the protection of domestic industry, and the rules of origin. For a •comparative analysis of the GSPs of different countries, an evaluation of the im¬pact of the overall GSP on the exports of the developing economies, and of sugges¬tions-for devising ways and means for expanding the exports of the developing countries, several committees were formed by the UNCTAD Secretariat. The Report under review is a collection of documents prepared by those committees, including document- Nos. TD/B/C-5.2 to TD/B/C-5.9. These documents are arranged under three heads, viz. General Report, Consideration of some inportant aspects of the GSP, and the Case Studies. The main issues discussed in these re¬ports are: Special measures in favour of the least developed countries; Effect of the GSP on the tariff advantages enjoyed by the African countries associated with the European Economic Community (EEC); Analysis of the rule of origin; and Effects of the GSP of the EEC countries, Japan and the UK on the export earnings of the beneficiary countries.


2016 ◽  
Vol 28 (10) ◽  
pp. 2197-2217 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Baumann ◽  
Hamin Hamin ◽  
Rosalie L. Tung ◽  
Susan Hoadley

Purpose The purpose of this eight-country study is to examine what drives performance at the individual worker’s level and compare the explanatory power of such drivers between emerging, newly developed and developed markets around the globe. Design/methodology/approach The study combines established behavioural theory developed in a Western context with three factors anticipated to be most relevant in Asia (competitive attitude, willingness to serve and speed) as drivers of workforce performance. Four thousand working and middle-class respondents from eight countries were sampled. The associations were tested using structural equation modelling, and workforce performance was measured using univariate analysis. Findings Three country clusters emerged from the research: emerging economies in Asia (Indonesia, India), where the three factors powerfully explain performance; “Confucian orbit countries” (China, Japan, Korea), where the factors explain 81-93 per cent; and highly developed Western countries (the USA, the UK, Germany), where the factors account for only 20-29 per cent. Practical implications As well as providing a framework for modelling workforce performance, particularly in Asian countries, the findings indicate that workforce performance should be incorporated in performance indexes. The findings as to which drivers best explain workforce performance in each country can inform workforce recruitment and management, as well as the location of businesses and outsourcing. Originality/value For the first time, the study addresses the anomaly between economic growth and development experienced by Asian countries and their relatively low rankings in global competitiveness indexes by making the link between workforce performance and country performance.


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