scholarly journals The impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions on the future dynamics of endemic infections

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel E. Baker ◽  
Sang Woo Park ◽  
Wenchang Yang ◽  
Gabriel A. Vecchi ◽  
C. Jessica E. Metcalf ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Evolutionary Dynamics ◽  
The United States ◽  
Endemic Diseases ◽  
Laboratory Surveillance ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Syncytial Virus ◽  
Uncertain Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Endemic Infections

AbstractNon-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been employed to reduce the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, yet these measures are already having similar effects on other directly-transmitted, endemic diseases. Disruptions to the seasonal transmission patterns of these diseases may have consequences for the timing and severity of future outbreaks. Here we consider the implications of SARS-CoV-2 NPIs for two endemic infections circulating in the United States of America (USA): respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and seasonal influenza. Using laboratory surveillance data from 2020, we estimate that RSV transmission declined by at least 20% in the USA at the start of the NPI period. We simulate future trajectories of both RSV and influenza, using an epidemic model. As susceptibility increases over the NPI period, we find that substantial outbreaks of RSV may occur in future years, with peak outbreaks likely occurring in the winter of 2021-2022. Results for influenza broadly echo this picture, but are more uncertain; future outbreaks are likely dependent on the transmissibility and evolutionary dynamics of circulating strains.

scholarly journals The impact of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on the future dynamics of endemic infections

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (48) ◽  
pp. 30547-30553 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel E. Baker ◽  
Sang Woo Park ◽  
Wenchang Yang ◽  
Gabriel A. Vecchi ◽  
C. Jessica E. Metcalf ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Evolutionary Dynamics ◽  
The United States ◽  
Endemic Diseases ◽  
Laboratory Surveillance ◽  
Syncytial Virus ◽  
Uncertain Future ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Endemic Infections

Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been employed to reduce the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), yet these measures are already having similar effects on other directly transmitted, endemic diseases. Disruptions to the seasonal transmission patterns of these diseases may have consequences for the timing and severity of future outbreaks. Here we consider the implications of SARS-CoV-2 NPIs for two endemic infections circulating in the United States of America: respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and seasonal influenza. Using laboratory surveillance data from 2020, we estimate that RSV transmission declined by at least 20% in the United States at the start of the NPI period. We simulate future trajectories of both RSV and influenza, using an epidemic model. As susceptibility increases over the NPI period, we find that substantial outbreaks of RSV may occur in future years, with peak outbreaks likely occurring in the winter of 2021–2022. Longer NPIs, in general, lead to larger future outbreaks although they may display complex interactions with baseline seasonality. Results for influenza broadly echo this picture, but are more uncertain; future outbreaks are likely dependent on the transmissibility and evolutionary dynamics of circulating strains.

scholarly journals Impact of temperature and relative humidity on the transmission of COVID-19: a modelling study in China and the United States

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. e043863
Author(s):  
Jingyuan Wang ◽  
Ke Tang ◽  
Kai Feng ◽  
Xin Lin ◽  
Weifeng Lv ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
The United States ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Higher Temperature ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact

ObjectivesWe aim to assess the impact of temperature and relative humidity on the transmission of COVID-19 across communities after accounting for community-level factors such as demographics, socioeconomic status and human mobility status.DesignA retrospective cross-sectional regression analysis via the Fama-MacBeth procedure is adopted.SettingWe use the data for COVID-19 daily symptom-onset cases for 100 Chinese cities and COVID-19 daily confirmed cases for 1005 US counties.ParticipantsA total of 69 498 cases in China and 740 843 cases in the USA are used for calculating the effective reproductive numbers.Primary outcome measuresRegression analysis of the impact of temperature and relative humidity on the effective reproductive number (R value).ResultsStatistically significant negative correlations are found between temperature/relative humidity and the effective reproductive number (R value) in both China and the USA.ConclusionsHigher temperature and higher relative humidity potentially suppress the transmission of COVID-19. Specifically, an increase in temperature by 1°C is associated with a reduction in the R value of COVID-19 by 0.026 (95% CI (−0.0395 to −0.0125)) in China and by 0.020 (95% CI (−0.0311 to −0.0096)) in the USA; an increase in relative humidity by 1% is associated with a reduction in the R value by 0.0076 (95% CI (−0.0108 to −0.0045)) in China and by 0.0080 (95% CI (−0.0150 to −0.0010)) in the USA. Therefore, the potential impact of temperature/relative humidity on the effective reproductive number alone is not strong enough to stop the pandemic.

scholarly journals 1719. Respiratory Syncytial Virus-Associated Hospitalization Rates among US Infants: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S843-S843
Author(s):  
John M McLaughlin ◽  
Farid L Khan ◽  
Heinz-Josef Schmitt ◽  
Yasmeen Agosti ◽  
Luis Jodar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Respiratory Syncytial Virus ◽  
Active Surveillance ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
The United States ◽  
Administrative Claims ◽  
Prevention Strategies ◽  
Hospitalization Rates ◽  
Syncytial Virus ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Understanding the true magnitude of infant respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) burden is critical for determining the potential public-health benefit of RSV prevention strategies. Although global reviews of infant RSV burden exist, none have summarized data from the United States or evaluated how RSV burden estimates are influenced by variations in study design. Methods We performed a systematic literature review and meta-analysis of studies describing RSV-associated hospitalization rates among US infants. We also examined the impact of key study characteristics on these estimates. Results After review of 3058 articles through January 2020, we identified 25 studies with 31 unique estimates of RSV-associated hospitalization rates. Among US infants < 1 year of age, annual rates ranged from 8.4 to 40.8 per 1000 with a pooled rate= 19.4 (95%CI= 17.9–20.9). Study type was associated with RSV hospitalization rates (P =.003), with active surveillance studies having pooled rates per 1000 (11.1; 95%CI: 9.8–12.3) that were half that of studies based on administrative claims (21.4; 95%CI: 19.5–23.3) or modeling approaches (23.2; 95%CI: 20.2–26.2). Conclusion Applying the pooled rates identified in our review to the 2020 US birth cohort suggests that 73,680 to 86,020 RSV-associated infant hospitalizations occur each year. To date, public-health officials have used conservative estimates from active surveillance as the basis for defining US infant RSV burden. The full range of RSV-associated hospitalization rates identified in our review better characterizes the true RSV burden in infants and can better inform future evaluations of RSV prevention strategies. Disclosures John M. McLaughlin, PhD, Pfizer (Employee, Shareholder) Farid L. Khan, MPH, Pfizer (Employee, Shareholder) Heinz-Josef Schmitt, MD, Pfizer (Employee, Shareholder) Yasmeen Agosti, MD, Pfizer (Employee, Shareholder) Luis Jodar, PhD, Pfizer (Employee, Shareholder) Eric Simões, MD, Pfizer (Consultant, Research Grant or Support) David L. Swerdlow, MD, Pfizer (Employee, Shareholder)

THE ACTIVITIES OF THE USA AND CHINA IN THE REGIONS OF THE WORLD, AFFECTING THE REALIZATION OF RUSSIA'S INTERESTS. Part 1: country interests and activities

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (10) ◽  
pp. 149-166
Author(s):  
Dmitry V. Gordienko ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The World ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Impact

The paper examines the interests of Russia, the United States and China in the regions of the world and identifies the priorities of Russia's activities in Europe, Central Asia and the Caucasus, the Asia-Pacific region, the Arctic, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America, their comparative assessment with the interests of the United States and China. An approach to assessing the impact of possible consequences of the activities of the United States and China on the realization of Russia's interests is proposed. This makes it possible to identify the priorities of the policy of the Russian Federation in various regions of the world. The results of the analysis can be used to substantiate recommendations to the military-political leadership of our country. It is concluded that the discrepancy between the interests of the United States and China is important for the implementation of the current economic and military policy of the Russian Federation.

An Investigation of the Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Energy Consumption in the United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lindsey Kahn ◽  
Hamidreza Najafi
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
The United States ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Total Consumption ◽  
The Usa ◽  
End Use ◽  
The Times ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Lockdown measures and mobility restrictions to combat the spread of COVID-19 have impacted energy consumption patterns. The overall decline of energy use during lockdown restrictions can best be identified through the analysis of energy consumption by source and end-use sectors. Using monthly energy consumption data, the total 9-months use between January and September for the years 2015–2020 is calculated for each end-use sector (transportation, industrial, residential, and commercial). The cumulative consumption within these 9 months of the petroleum, natural gas, biomass, and electricity energy by the various end-use sectors are compared. The analysis shows that the transportation sector experienced the greatest decline (14.38%). To further analyze the impact of COVID-19 on each state within the USA, the consumption of electricity by each state and each end-use sector in the times before and during the pandemic is used to identify the impact of specific lockdown procedures on energy use. The distinction of state-by-state analysis in this study provides a unique metric for consumption forecasting. The average total consumption for each state was found for the years 2015–2019. The total average annual growth rate (AAGR) for 2020 was used to find a correlation coefficient between COVID-19 case and death rate, population density, and lockdown duration. A correlation coefficient was also calculated between the 2020 AAGR for all sectors and AAGR for each individual end-user. The results show that Indiana had the highest percent reduction in consumption of 10.07% while North Dakota had the highest consumption increase of 7.61%. This is likely due to the amount of industrial consumption relative to other sectors in the state.

A New World Economic order formation

2021 ◽  
pp. 932-950
Author(s):  
Vladislav Vyacheslavovich Emelyanov
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
World Order ◽  
The United States ◽  
New Order ◽  
The West ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The World ◽  
The Usa ◽  
World Economic Order ◽  
The Impact

Every few decades, the world order changes due to various geopolitical, economic and other circumstances. For example, as a result of globalization, the world order has undergone significant changes in the last forty years. Globalization has led to the destruction of the postwar world order, as well as to world leadership by the United States and the West. However, in recent decades, as a result of globalization, the U.S. and the West began to cede their leadership to developing countries, so there is now a change in the economic structure of relations in the world system. Today the center of economic growth is in the East, namely in Asia. There are no new superpowers in the world at the moment, but the unipolar world will cease to exist due to the weakening of the U. S. leadership, which will lead to a change in the world order. A new leader, which may replace the U. S., will not have as wide range of advantages as the USA has. Most likely, the essence of the new order will be to unite the largest countries and alliances into blocks, for example, the USA together with the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the EU, etc. The article outlines forecasts of GDP growth rates as well as the global energy outlook; analyzes the LNG market as well as the impact of the pandemic on the global oil and gas market; and lists the characteristics of U. S. geopolitics.

scholarly journals Determining the Seasonality of Respiratory Syncytial Virus in the United States: The Impact of Increased Molecular Testing

2017 ◽  
Vol 216 (3) ◽  
pp. 345-355 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claire M Midgley ◽  
Amber K Haynes ◽  
Jason L Baumgardner ◽  
Christina Chommanard ◽  
Sara W Demas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Respiratory Syncytial Virus ◽  
The United States ◽  
Molecular Testing ◽  
Syncytial Virus ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Premature mortality attributable to COVID-19: potential years of life lost in 17 countries around the world, January–August 2020

2022 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maider Pagola Ugarte ◽  
Souzana Achilleos ◽  
Annalisa Quattrocchi ◽  
John Gabel ◽  
Ourania Kolokotroni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Premature Mortality ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cape Verde ◽  
Years Of Life Lost ◽  
Demographic Groups ◽  
The World ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Research Consortium ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Understanding the impact of the burden of COVID-19 is key to successfully navigating the COVID-19 pandemic. As part of a larger investigation on COVID-19 mortality impact, this study aims to estimate the Potential Years of Life Lost (PYLL) in 17 countries and territories across the world (Australia, Brazil, Cape Verde, Colombia, Cyprus, France, Georgia, Israel, Kazakhstan, Peru, Norway, England & Wales, Scotland, Slovenia, Sweden, Ukraine, and the United States [USA]). Methods Age- and sex-specific COVID-19 death numbers from primary national sources were collected by an international research consortium. The study period was established based on the availability of data from the inception of the pandemic to the end of August 2020. The PYLL for each country were computed using 80 years as the maximum life expectancy. Results As of August 2020, 442,677 (range: 18–185,083) deaths attributed to COVID-19 were recorded in 17 countries which translated to 4,210,654 (range: 112–1,554,225) PYLL. The average PYLL per death was 8.7 years, with substantial variation ranging from 2.7 years in Australia to 19.3 PYLL in Ukraine. North and South American countries as well as England & Wales, Scotland and Sweden experienced the highest PYLL per 100,000 population; whereas Australia, Slovenia and Georgia experienced the lowest. Overall, males experienced higher PYLL rate and higher PYLL per death than females. In most countries, most of the PYLL were observed for people aged over 60 or 65 years, irrespective of sex. Yet, Brazil, Cape Verde, Colombia, Israel, Peru, Scotland, Ukraine, and the USA concentrated most PYLL in younger age groups. Conclusions Our results highlight the role of PYLL as a tool to understand the impact of COVID-19 on demographic groups within and across countries, guiding preventive measures to protect these groups under the ongoing pandemic. Continuous monitoring of PYLL is therefore needed to better understand the burden of COVID-19 in terms of premature mortality.

MIDDLE EAST POLICY COMPONENT OF THE USA, CHINA AND RUSSIAN FEDERATION: POLITICS OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (part 1)

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (12) ◽  
pp. 126-149
Author(s):  
D. V. GORDIENKO ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
United States Of America ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Usa ◽  
East Component ◽  
The Military ◽  
Middle East Policy ◽  
The Impact

The paper assesses the impact of the middle East component of the policy of the United States of America, the people's Republic of China and the Russian Federation on ensuring the national security of these countries. We propose an approach to comparing this influence, which allows us to identify the priorities of Russia's policy in the middle East and other regions of the world. The results of the work can be used to justify recommendations to the military and political leadership of our country. It is concluded that the middle East component of the policy of the United States, China and Russia is gaining a significant role in the implementation of the current economic and military policies of the countries of the middle East region.

Sexual Harassment Laws and Their Impact on the Work Environment

2019 ◽  
pp. 657-683
Author(s):  
Philippe W. Zgheib
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Sexual Harassment ◽  
Work Environment ◽  
The United States ◽  
Judicial System ◽  
Willingness To Disclose ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Impact

This chapter examines the impact of sexual harassment laws in a work environment. Different contexts are examined with different sexual harassment laws. The most vulnerable individuals are identified. The particular case of Lebanon is inspected where few laws regulate this matter. A comparison is established with the USA. Lebanon and the United States have a different view of sexual harassment. In Lebanon, no clear laws protect women. In addition, Lebanon is more tolerant than the United States. The difference in cultures also contributes in people's willingness to disclose harassment. In the United States, people are used to the concept of right and a judicial system that preserves it. In Lebanon, such a matter is taboo, and people are discouraged from disclosing to preserve their reputation.

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