scholarly journals The effect of international travel restrictions on internal spread of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy W. Russell ◽  
Joesph Wu ◽  
Samuel Clifford ◽  
John Edmunds ◽  
Adam J Kucharski ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Credible Interval ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Epidemic Dynamics ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
Total Incidence ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
Asymptomatic Infections ◽  
Local Transmission

Background: Countries have restricted international arrivals to delay the spread of COVID-19. These measures carry a high economic and social cost. They may have little impact on COVID-19 epidemics if there are many more cases resulting from local transmission compared to imported cases. Methods: To inform decisions about international travel restrictions, we compared the ratio of expected COVID-19 cases from international travel (assuming no travel restrictions) to the expected COVID-19 cases arising from internal spread on an average day in May 2020 in each country. COVID-19 prevalence and incidence were estimated using a modelling framework that adjusts reported cases for under-ascertainment and asymptomatic infections. Findings: With May 2019 travel volumes, imported cases account for <10% of total incidence in 103 (95% credible interval: 76 - 130) out of 142 countries, and <1% in 48 (95% CrI: 9 - 95). If we assume that travel would decrease compared to May 2019 even in the absence of formal restrictions, then imported cases account for <10% of total incidence in 109-123 countries and <1% in 61-88 countries (depending on the assumptions about travel reductions). Interpretation: While countries can expect infected travellers to arrive in the absence of travel restrictions, in most countries these imported cases likely contribute little to local COVID-19 epidemics. Stringent travel restrictions may have limited impact on epidemic dynamics except in countries with low COVID-19 incidence and large numbers of arrivals from other countries.

scholarly journals Impact of Travel Ban Implementation on COVID-19 Spread in Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea During the Early Phase of the Pandemic: a Comparative Study.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sylvia Xiao Wei Gwee ◽  
Pearleen Chua Ee Yong ◽  
Min Xian Wang ◽  
Junxiong Pang
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
The Other ◽  
Response Data ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
Almost All ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Local Transmission

Abstract Introduction: Since January 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has elicited imposition of some form of travel restrictions by almost all countries in the world. Most of which persist to this day even as some restrictions have been gradually eased. It remains unclear if the trade-off from the unprecedented disruption to air travel was well worth in the course of pandemic containment.Methods: A comparative analysis was conducted on Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea’s COVID-19 response. Data on COVID-19 cases, travel-related and community interventions, socio-economic profile were consolidated. Trends on imported and local cases were analyzed using computations of moving averages, rate of change, particularly in response to distinct waves of travel-related interventions due to the outbreak in China, South Korea, Iran & Italy, and Europe.Findings: South Korea’s travel restrictions consistently lagged in terms of timeliness and magnitude. The first wave of travel restrictions against China was implemented 34 days after the outbreak in Wuhan, compared to 22-26 days taken by Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong. Restrictions against all countries came after 91 days, compared to 78-80 days for the other three countries. Taiwan and Hong Kong were the most efficient in adopting travel restrictions. Singapore’s belated measures and higher importation risk as compared to the other three Asian countries manifested in its deteriorating local transmission. The rate of change of imported cases fell by 1.08-1.43 across all four countries following the first wave of intervention against China, and by 0.22-0.52 in all countries except South Korea in the fifth wave against all international travellers. Conclusion: Travel restriction was effective in preventing COVID-19 case importation in early outbreak phase. However, evidence of its effect on local transmission was lacking. The impact of travel restrictions in containing epidemics cannot be disentangled from local non-pharmaceutical interventions concurrently implemented. Overall, measures should be complementary, with more emphasis on the latter to contain the outbreak effectively.

scholarly journals Inflow restrictions can prevent epidemics when contact tracing efforts are effective but have limited capacity

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (170) ◽  
pp. 20200351 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannes Malmberg ◽  
Tom Britton
Keyword(s):  
Epidemiological Model ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Community Interventions ◽  
Limited Capacity ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
Local Transmission

When a region tries to prevent an outbreak of an epidemic, two broad strategies are available: limiting the inflow of infected cases by using travel restrictions and quarantines or limiting the risk of local transmission from imported cases by using contact tracing and other community interventions. A number of papers have used epidemiological models to argue that inflow restrictions are unlikely to be effective. We simulate a simple epidemiological model to show that this conclusion changes if containment efforts such as contact tracing have limited capacity. In particular, our results show that moderate travel restrictions can lead to large reductions in the probability of an epidemic when contact tracing is effective but the contact tracing system is close to being overwhelmed.

scholarly journals The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matteo Chinazzi ◽  
Jessica T. Davis ◽  
Marco Ajelli ◽  
Corrado Gioannini ◽  
Maria Litvinova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Disease Transmission Model ◽  
The Impact

AbstractMotivated by the rapid spread of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Mainland China, we use a global metapopulation disease transmission model to project the impact of both domestic and international travel limitations on the national and international spread of the epidemic. The model is calibrated on the evidence of internationally imported cases before the implementation of the travel quarantine of Wuhan. By assuming a generation time of 7.5 days, the reproduction number is estimated to be 2.4 [90% CI 2.2-2.6]. The median estimate for number of cases before the travel ban implementation on January 23, 2020 is 58,956 [90% CI 40,759 - 87,471] in Wuhan and 3,491 [90% CI 1,924 - 7,360] in other locations in Mainland China. The model shows that as of January 23, most Chinese cities had already received a considerable number of infected cases, and the travel quarantine delays the overall epidemic progression by only 3 to 5 days. The travel quarantine has a more marked effect at the international scale, where we estimate the number of case importations to be reduced by 80% until the end of February. Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from Mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.

scholarly journals Impact of travel ban implementation on COVID-19 spread in Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea during the early phase of the pandemic: A comparative study.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sylvia Xiao Wei Gwee ◽  
Pearleen Chua Ee Yong ◽  
Min Xian Wang ◽  
Junxiong Pang
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
The Other ◽  
Response Data ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
Almost All ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Local Transmission

Abstract Introduction: Since January 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has elicited imposition of some form of travel restrictions by almost all countries in the world. Most of which persist to this day even as some restrictions have been gradually eased. It remains unclear if the trade-off from the unprecedented disruption to air travel was well worth in the course of pandemic containment.Methods: A comparative analysis was conducted on Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea’s COVID-19 response. Data on COVID-19 cases, travel-related and community interventions, socio-economic profile were consolidated. Trends on imported and local cases were analyzed using computations of moving averages, rate of change, particularly in response to distinct waves of travel-related interventions due to the outbreak in China, South Korea, Iran & Italy, and Europe.Findings: South Korea’s travel restrictions consistently lagged in terms of timeliness and magnitude. The first wave of travel restrictions against China was implemented 34 days after the outbreak in Wuhan, compared to 22-26 days taken by Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong. Restrictions against all countries came after 91 days, compared to 78-80 days for the other three countries. Taiwan and Hong Kong were the most efficient in adopting travel restrictions. Singapore’s belated measures and higher importation risk as compared to the other three Asian countries manifested in its deteriorating local transmission. The rate of change of imported cases fell by 1.08-1.43 across all four countries following the first wave of intervention against China, and by 0.22-0.52 in all countries except South Korea in the fifth wave against all international travellers. Conclusion: Travel restriction was effective in preventing COVID-19 case importation in early outbreak phase. However, evidence of its effect on local transmission was lacking. The impact of travel restrictions in containing epidemics cannot be disentangled from local non-pharmaceutical interventions concurrently implemented. Overall, measures should be complementary, with more emphasis on the latter to contain the outbreak effectively.

scholarly journals Molecular Epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Greece Reveals Low Rates of Onward Virus Transmission after Lifting of Travel Restrictions Based on Risk Assessment during Summer 2020

mSphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evangelia Georgia Kostaki ◽  
Georgios A. Pavlopoulos ◽  
Kleio-Maria Verrou ◽  
Giannis Ampatziadis-Michailidis ◽  
Vaggelis Harokopos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Molecular Epidemiology ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Current State ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
Virus Screening

Our study based on current state-of-the-art molecular epidemiology methods suggests that virus screening and public health measures after the lifting of travel restrictions prevented SARS-CoV-2 onward transmission from imported cases during summer 2020 in Greece. These findings provide important data on the efficacy of targeted public health measures and have important implications regarding the safety of international travel during a pandemic.

scholarly journals Estimating the establishment of local transmission and the cryptic phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica T. Davis ◽  
Matteo Chinazzi ◽  
Nicola Perra ◽  
Kunpeng Mu ◽  
Ana Pastore y Piontti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mainland China ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
Key Driver ◽  
Imported Infections ◽  
Local Transmission

We use a global metapopulation transmission model to study the establishment of sustained and undetected community transmission of the COVID-19 epidemic in the United States. The model is calibrated on international case importations from mainland China and takes into account travel restrictions to and from international destinations. We estimate widespread community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in February, 2020. Modeling results indicate international travel as the key driver of the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in the West and East Coast metropolitan areas that could have been seeded as early as late-December, 2019. For most of the continental states the largest contribution of imported infections arrived through domestic travel flows.

scholarly journals Introductions and early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in France

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabiana Gámbaro ◽  
Sylvie Behillil ◽  
Artem Baidaliuk ◽  
Flora Donati ◽  
Mélanie Albert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Phylogenetic Analysis ◽  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Genomic Data ◽  
Genomic Sequencing ◽  
Virus Spread ◽  
Local Circulation ◽  
Major Clade ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
Asymptomatic Infections ◽  
Local Transmission

AbstractFollowing the emergence of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China in December 2019, specific COVID-19 surveillance was launched in France on January 10, 2020. Two weeks later, the first three imported cases of COVID-19 into Europe were diagnosed in France. We sequenced 97 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genomes from samples collected between January 24 and March 24, 2020 from infected patients in France. Phylogenetic analysis identified several early independent SARS-CoV-2 introductions without local transmission, highlighting the efficacy of the measures taken to prevent virus spread from symptomatic cases. In parallel, our genomic data reveals the later predominant circulation of a major clade in many French regions, and implies local circulation of the virus in undocumented infections prior to the wave of COVID-19 cases. This study emphasizes the importance of continuous and geographically broad genomic sequencing and calls for further efforts with inclusion of asymptomatic infections.

scholarly journals Surge of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infections linked to single introduction of a virus strain in Myanmar, 2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Myat Htut Nyunt ◽  
Hnin Ohnmar Soe ◽  
Kay Thi Aye ◽  
Wah Wah Aung ◽  
Yi Yi Kyaw ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Early Phase ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
Whole Genome ◽  
Genome Sequences ◽  
Genomic Epidemiology ◽  
Local Spread ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Local Transmission

AbstractSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is a major health concern globally. Genomic epidemiology is an important tool to assess the pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Several mutations have been reported by genome analysis of the SARS-CoV-2. In the present study, we investigated the mutational and phylogenetic analysis of 30 whole-genome sequences for the virus's genomic characteristics in the specimens collected in the early phase of the pandemic (March–June, 2020) and the sudden surge of local transmission (August–September, 2020). The four samples in the early phase of infection were B.6 lineage and located within a clade of the samples collected at the same time in Singapore and Malaysia, while five returnees by rescue flights showed the lineage B. 1.36.1 (three from India), B.1.1 (one from India) and B.1.80 (one from China). However, there was no evidence of local spread from these returnees. Further, all 19 whole-genome sequences collected in the sudden surge of local transmission showed lineage B.1.36. The surge of the second wave on SARS-CoV-2 infection was linked to the single-introduction of a variant (B.1.36) that may result from the strict restriction of international travel and containment efforts. These genomic data provides the useful information to disease control and prevention strategy.

scholarly journals How does globalization affect COVID-19 responses?

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Steve J. Bickley ◽  
Ho Fai Chan ◽  
Ahmed Skali ◽  
David Stadelmann ◽  
Benno Torgler
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
State Capacity ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Government Effectiveness ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
High Government

Abstract Background The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the vast differences in approaches to the control and containment of coronavirus across the world and has demonstrated the varied success of such approaches in minimizing the transmission of coronavirus. While previous studies have demonstrated high predictive power of incorporating air travel data and governmental policy responses in global disease transmission modelling, factors influencing the decision to implement travel and border restriction policies have attracted relatively less attention. This paper examines the role of globalization on the pace of adoption of international travel-related non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the coronavirus pandemic. This study aims to offer advice on how to improve the global planning, preparation, and coordination of actions and policy responses during future infectious disease outbreaks with empirical evidence. Methods and data We analyzed data on international travel restrictions in response to COVID-19 of 185 countries from January to October 2020. We applied time-to-event analysis to examine the relationship between globalization and the timing of travel restrictions implementation. Results The results of our survival analysis suggest that, in general, more globalized countries, accounting for the country-specific timing of the virus outbreak and other factors, are more likely to adopt international travel restrictions policies. However, countries with high government effectiveness and globalization were more cautious in implementing travel restrictions, particularly if through formal political and trade policy integration. This finding is supported by a placebo analysis of domestic NPIs, where such a relationship is absent. Additionally, we find that globalized countries with high state capacity are more likely to have higher numbers of confirmed cases by the time a first restriction policy measure was taken. Conclusions The findings highlight the dynamic relationship between globalization and protectionism when governments respond to significant global events such as a public health crisis. We suggest that the observed caution of policy implementation by countries with high government efficiency and globalization is a by-product of commitment to existing trade agreements, a greater desire to ‘learn from others’ and also perhaps of ‘confidence’ in a government’s ability to deal with a pandemic through its health system and state capacity. Our results suggest further research is warranted to explore whether global infectious disease forecasting could be improved by including the globalization index and in particular, the de jure economic and political, and de facto social dimensions of globalization, while accounting for the mediating role of government effectiveness. By acting as proxies for a countries’ likelihood and speed of implementation for international travel restriction policies, such measures may predict the likely time delays in disease emergence and transmission across national borders.

ЮНВТО Всемирная туристская Барометр, и статистическое приложение Обновленная информация, ИСентябрь 2021 года

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
pp. 1-40
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
International Travel ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Modest Improvement ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Roll Out ◽  
Made In

International tourism shows slight recovery in June and July 2021 driven by vaccinations and border reopening International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) in the first seven months of 2021 were 40% below the levels of 2020, and still 80% down when compared to the same period of pre-pandemic year 2019. After a weak start of the year, international tourism saw a modest improvement during the months of June and July 2021. The small improvement in June and July was underpinned by the reopening of many destinations to international travel, mostly in Europe and the Americas. The relaxation of travel restrictions to vaccinated travellers, coupled with progress made in the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines, contributed to ease travel restrictions, lift consumer confidence and gradually restore safe mobility in Europe and other parts of the world. Small islands in the Caribbean, Africa, and Asia and the Pacific, together with a few small European destinations recorded the best performance in June and July, with arrivals coming close to, or sometimes exceeding pre-pandemic levels. July (-67%) saw comparatively better performance than June (-77%), making it the best month so far since April 2020. Asia and the Pacific continued to suffer the weakest results in January-July 2021, with a 95% drop in international arrivals compared to the same period in 2019. The Middle East (-82%) recorded the second largest decline, followed by Europe and Africa (both -77%). The Americas (-68%) saw a comparatively smaller decrease. Although destinations continued to report very weak international tourism revenues in the first seven months of 2021, several countries recorded a modest improvement in the months of June and July, and some even surpassed the earnings of 2019. The same is true for outbound travel. Among the larger source markets, France (-35% over 2019) and the United States (-49%) saw a small rebound in expenditure in July. Despite the relative improvement over the low levels of 2020, international tourism remained well below 2019 levels. This is also reflected in the evaluation made by the UNWTO Panel of Experts in the September survey, showing mixed results for the period May-August 2021. Looking ahead, most experts continue to expect a rebound in 2022, driven by unleashed pent-up demand, mostly during the second and third quarter of that year. Nearly one-third of respondents expect a potential rebound in 2023. Almost half of all experts continue to see a return of international arrivals to 2019 levels in 2024 or later.

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