scholarly journals Epidemiological aspects of COVID-19 disease in India during nationwide lockdown phase- An empirical data-based analysis and its implications on interrupting the transmission

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
PERUMAL VANAMAIL
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality ◽  
Family Welfare ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Distribution Fitting ◽  
Instantaneous Rate ◽  
First Case ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
Transmission Stage ◽  
Negative Exponential

Background: Covid-19 disease is pandemic in more than 85% of the countries in the world, with about 10 million cases and 0.5 million deaths as on July 2, 2020. In India reporting of the first case was on January 30, 2020, and to prevent rapid community spread of the disease nationwide lockdown phase was imposed from March 25- June 1, 2020. Our objective was to assess various epidemiological measures during the lockdown phase. Methods: We used daily reporting of confirmed cases by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India during the period March 19-June 1, 2020. Using statistical packages STATA version 16.0 and R-packages in R-version 4.0, we fitted statistical distributions, estimated generation time and Basic Reproduction numbers. Results: During the lockdown phase, the daily per cent increase in the cumulative number of cases showed negative exponential growth with 0.022 as an instantaneous rate of decrease. Day specific incidence rate per million revealed the exponential pattern with 0.069 as the instantaneous rate of increase per day, which accounted for the doubling time of the disease (10 days; 95% CI: 9.25-10.93). Case fatality rate (2.92%; 95% CI: 2.82% -3.02%) and overall death rate was 1.14 (95% CI: 0.87-1.41) per million. were abysmally low. Statistical distribution fitting of new cases found to be satisfactory with Gamma distribution. Basic reproduction numbers 1.83 (95% CI: 1.82-1.83) was less. Conclusion: In India, with a population density of about 450 per Km2, the virulent of COVID-19 transmission was interrupted significantly with 70 days lockdown during the early transmission stage. A great decline could be seen in all the epidemiological indices compared to the index noted during the same period in the severely affected countries.

scholarly journals COVID-19 pandemic in India: A Comparison of pandemic pattern in Selected States

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 856-864
Author(s):  
Rama Shankar Rath ◽  
Anand Mohan Dixit ◽  
Anil Ramesh Koparkar ◽  
Pradip Kharya ◽  
Hari Shanker Joshi
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Family Welfare ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Strong Law ◽  
Preparedness Plan ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
First Case

The COVID-19 pandemic currently expanded its roots to the 206 countries in the world. The morbidity and mortality are not only threat to humans but also its impact on economy is indirectly affecting us. The current review was done to find trend in various states of India. Data was collected from Ministry of Health and Family Welfare and descriptive analysis of the distribution of COVID-19 cases in different states of India. First case of COVID-19 was diagnosed in southern most state Kerala and after that it has spread to all other states but situations are more worsen in states with high international migration. Maharashtra is now the most affected state followed by Delhi. Among epidemic curve of all these states, Maharashtra has rapidly growing epidemic curve with highest slope, whereas Kerala has the lowest. When we compared the day wise cumulative case fatality rate, it was found that the case fatality rate of the states like Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh & Rajasthan showed decrease in the case fatality rate over the period. Population density is also one of the key determinants of social interaction and thus the spread of disease specifically in communicable diseases. Government of India had taken many strong initiatives e.g. 40 days nation-wide lockdown, thermal screening at airport, announcement of relief packages for poor and quarantine of outsiders but still there are many missed opportunities like, early stoppage of international traffic, compulsory quarantine for all international travellers, better contact tracing, strong law and order and better preparedness plan.

scholarly journals Analysis of Covid-19 Situation in Udupi District, Karnataka, South India

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (6) ◽  
pp. 01-09
Author(s):  
Gulappa Devagappanavar ◽  
Pallavi Pallavi
Keyword(s):  
Coastal Region ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Peak Level ◽  
Family Welfare ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Susceptible Population ◽  
Case Load ◽  
First Case ◽  
Total Growth ◽  
Kerala State

Background: COVID 19 originated in Wuhan city and rapidlyspread to variouscountries. The first case from India was notified on 30th January at Kerala state. Karnataka identified with COVID cases in the month of March. First case in Udupi notified on 24/03/2020. At the end of August 30 the cases were reached to 11598. Present study aimed to study the trends and pattern of Covid-19 in one of the coastal region of Karnataka i.e. in Udupi district. Objectives: 1) Analyze the trend and pattern of COVID 19 cases at Udupi district. 2) Calculate the incidence, Prevalence, Case Fatality rates and Competed Methodology: Data is obtained from media bulletin released by the Dept.of health and family welfare Karnataka. Udupi district was chosen for studyand data is analyzed throughMS excel and case fatalityrate, Completed case fatality rate, patient recovery rate were calculated and expressed in graphs Result: The case load in increased exponentially but growthrate is droppingdown as month advances. Prevalenceof the cases expressed in Attack rate, CFR, CCFR and PRR. In the month of April attackrate is 1.43 per lakh population, that increased to 88 cases per lakh population.by May, This indicated high susceptible population getting infected. Then it got stabilized around 2-6 folds per month and At the end of August 30 the cases were reached to 11598.In August month fatality rate reaches at peak level with value of 0.9. Total growth in CFR from June to August is 89%. Thecases were high in rainy season when compare to summer season.It indicates climatehas direct effecton the Covid 19 spread in Udupi district Conclusion:The case load in increasing exponentially but growth rate is droppingdown as month advanced in Udupi district indicates better management of cases. Cases got reduced after imposing lockdown in district. Preventive measures and social distancing played an important role in reduction of case load in district.

Understanding the asymmetric spread and case fatality rate (CFR) for COVID-19 among countries (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eldhose Iype ◽  
Sadhya Gulati
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Population Density ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The United States ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Rate Of Increase

UNSTRUCTURED The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections are rising rapidly every day in the world, causing the disease COVID-19 with around 2 million people infected and more than 100,000 people died so far, in more than 200 countries. One of the baffling aspects of this pandemic is the asymmetric increase in cases and case fatality rate (CFR) among countries. We analyze the time series of the infection and fatality numbers and found two interesting aspects. Firstly, the rate of spread in a region is directly connected to the population density of the region where the virus is spreading. For example, the high rate of increase in cases in the United States of America (USA) is related to the high population density of New York City. This is shown by scaling the cumulative number of cases with a measure of the population density of the affected region in countries such as Italy, Spain, Germany, and the USA and we see that the curves are coinciding. Secondly, we analyzed the CFR number as a function of the number of days, since the first death, and we found that there are two clear categories among countries: one category with high CFR numbers (around 10%) and the other category with low CFR numbers (2% to 4%). When we analyzed the results, we see that countries with lower CFR numbers more or less tend to have implemented active control measures such as aggressive testing, tracking down possible infections, effective quarantine measures, etc. Moreover, we did not see any convincing correlation between mortality rates and the median age of the population.

scholarly journals Understanding the asymmetric spread and case fatality rate (CFR) for COVID-19 among countries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eldhose Iype ◽  
Sadhya Gulati
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Population Density ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The United States ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Rate Of Increase

AbstractThe severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections are rising rapidly every day in the world, causing the disease COVID-19 with around 2 million people infected and more than 100,000 people died so far, in more than 200 countries. One of the baffling aspects of this pandemic is the asymmetric increase in cases and case fatality rate (CFR) among countries. We analyze the time series of the infection and fatality numbers and found two interesting aspects. Firstly, the rate of spread in a region is directly connected to the population density of the region where the virus is spreading. For example, the high rate of increase in cases in the United States of America (USA) is related to the high population density of New York City. This is shown by scaling the cumulative number of cases with a measure of the population density of the affected region in countries such as Italy, Spain, Germany, and the USA and we see that the curves are coinciding. Secondly, we analyzed the CFR number as a function of the number of days, since the first death, and we found that there are two clear categories among countries: one category with high CFR numbers (around 10%) and the other category with low CFR numbers (2% to 4%). When we analyzed the results, we see that countries with lower CFR numbers more or less tend to have implemented active control measures such as aggressive testing, tracking down possible infections, effective quarantine measures, etc. Moreover, we did not see any convincing correlation between mortality rates and the median age of the population.

Impact of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol on COVID-19 case-fatality rate reduction in Algeria. (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Youssef Kada
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Doubling Time ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
World Health ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Therapeutic Protocol ◽  
First Case ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

BACKGROUND Covid-19 is an emerging infectious disease like viral zoonosis caused by new coronavirus SARS CoV 2. On December 31, 2019, Wuhan Municipal Health Commission in Hubei province (China) reported cases of pneumonia, the origin of which is a new coronavirus. Rapidly extendable around the world, the World Health Organization (WHO) declares it pandemic on March 11, 2020. This pandemic reaches Algeria on February 25, 2020, date on which the Algerian minister of health, announced the first case of Covid-19, a foreign citizen. From March 1, a cluster is formed in Blida and becomes the epicentre of the coronavirus epidemic in Algeria, its total quarantine is established on March 24, 2020, it will be smoothly alleviated on April 24. A therapeutic protocol based on hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin was put in place on March 23, for complicated cases, it was extended to all the cases confirmed on April 06. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to demonstrate the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol in Algeria, in particular after its extension to all patients diagnosed COVID-19 positive on RT-PCR test. We were able to illustrate this fact graphically, but not to prove it statistically because the design of our study, indeed in the 7 days which followed generalization of therapeutic protocol, case fatality rate decrease and doubling time increase, thus confirming the impact of wide and early prescription of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol. METHODS We have analyzed the data collected from press releases and follow-ups published daily by the Ministry of Health, we have studied the possible correlations of these data with certain events or decisions having a possible impact on their development, such as confinement at home and its reduction, the prescription of hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin combination for serious patients and its extension to all positive COVID subjects. Results are presented in graphics, the data collection was closed on 31/05/2020. RESULTS Covid-19 pandemic spreads from February 25, 2020, when a foreign citizen is tested positive, on March 1 a cluster is formed in the city of Blida where sixteen members of the same family are infected during a wedding party. Wilaya of Blida becomes the epicentre of coronavirus epidemic in Algeria and lockdown measures taken, while the number of national cases diagnosed begins to increases In any event, the association of early containment measures combined with a generalized initial treatment for all positive cases, whatever their degree of severity, will have contributed to a reduction in the fatality rate of COVID 19 and a slowing down of its doubling time. CONCLUSIONS In Algeria, the rapid combination of rigorous containment measure at home and early generalized treatment with hydroxychloroquin have demonstrated their effectiveness in terms of morbidity and mortality, the classic measures of social distancing and hygiene will make it possible to perpetuate these results by reducing viral transmission, the only unknown, the reopening procedure which can only be started after being surrounded by precautions aimed at ensuring the understanding of the population. CLINICALTRIAL Algeria, Covid-19, pandemic, hydroxychloroquin, azithromycin, case fatality rate

Covid-19 Cases in India: A Visual Exploratory Data Analysis Model (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jayesh S
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Exploratory Data Analysis ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
Virus Spread ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Case Fatality Ratio ◽  
First Case ◽  
Exploratory Data ◽  
The Government

UNSTRUCTURED Covid-19 outbreak was first reported in Wuhan, China. The deadly virus spread not just the disease, but fear around the globe. On January 2020, WHO declared COVID-19 as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). First case of Covid-19 in India was reported on January 30, 2020. By the time, India was prepared in fighting against the virus. India has taken various measures to tackle the situation. In this paper, an exploratory data analysis of Covid-19 cases in India is carried out. Data namely number of cases, testing done, Case Fatality ratio, Number of deaths, change in visits stringency index and measures taken by the government is used for modelling and visual exploratory data analysis.

scholarly journals Hosts of Raoiella indica Hirst (Acari: Tenuipalpidae) Native to the Brazilian Amazon

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 86 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristina A. Gómez-Moya ◽  
Talita P. S. Lima ◽  
Elisângela G. F. Morais ◽  
Manoel G. C. Gondim Jr. ◽  
Gilberto J. De Moraes
Keyword(s):  
Plant Species ◽  
Native Species ◽  
Brazilian Amazon ◽  
Intrinsic Rate Of Increase ◽  
Native Plant ◽  
Instantaneous Rate ◽  
Net Reproductive Rate ◽  
Musa Paradisiaca ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
Raoiella Indica

The expansion of red palm mite (RPM), Raoiella indica (Acari: Tenuipalpidae) in Brazil could impact negatively the native plant species, especially of the family Arecaceae. To determine which species could be at risk, we investigated the development and reproductive potential of R. indica on 19 plant species including 13 native species to the Brazilian Amazon (12 Arecaceae and one Heliconiaceae), and six exotic species, four Arecaceae, a Musaceae and a Zingiberaceae. Values of the instantaneous rate of increase (ri) were initially estimated at 7, 14, 21 and 28 days after infestation of each species. Higher values of ri (> 0.05) were determined on the Arecaceae Adonidia merrillii, Astrocaryum jauari, Cocos nucifera, Bactris simplicifrons, Mauritia flexuosa, Phoenix dactylifera and Socratea exorrhiza, and on the Heliconiaceae Heliconia psittacorum Sassy; these were classified as “potential primary hosts”. Lower, but still positive values of ri (0-0.05) were determined on the Arecaceae Bactris maraja, Oenocarpus bacaba, Oenocarpus bataua and on the Musaceae Musa × paradisiaca (Prata variety); these were classified as “potential secondary hosts”. Negative values of ri were determined for the remaining plants, i.e., the Arecaceae Astrocaryum aculeatum, Attalea maripa, Bactris gasipaes, Elaeis guineensis, Euterpe oleracea, Euterpe precatoria, and the Zingiberaceae Alpinia rosea; these were considered “non-hosts”. Species with ri < 0.05 were considered not to be threatened by the RPM. Biological parameters of RPM were evaluated on the plant species with positive ri (except B. maraja) and two native species with negative ri (E. oleracea and E. precatoria). Mean developmental time ranged from 14.7 days on C. nucifera to 21.4 days on Musa × paradisiaca, showing a significant influence of the plant substrate. Immature viability, oviposition rate, net reproductive rate (R0) and intrinsic rate of increase (rm) were affected by the plant species.

Abstract 12259: Epidemiology of Valvular Heart Diseases: A 30-Year Retrospective of Hospitalizations and In-Hospital Mortality in New York State

Circulation ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 130 (suppl_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Phyllis G Supino ◽  
Ofek Y Hai ◽  
Nasimullah Khan ◽  
Jeffrey S Borer
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Heart Diseases ◽  
New York State ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Female Gender ◽  
York State ◽  
Death Risk ◽  
Valvular Heart Diseases ◽  
Rate Of Increase

Background: Valvular heart disease (VHD) is among the most predictable causes of heart failure (HF) and an important cause of sudden death. Temporal trends of clinically significant VHD during the past three decades have not been defined. Methods: To obtain information for our region, we conducted a longitudinal analysis of all inpatient hospital records (79,689,879) obtained from the New York State (NYS) Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System (SPARCS) database for years 1983 (first year reliable data were consistently available) through 2012 (last year data were complete). VHD cases (2,720,313) were identified from principal or secondary ICD-9 codes for aortic, mitral, tricuspid or pulmonic VHD. Linear regression was used to evaluate trends over time for VHD hospitalizations, valve surgery (VS) and in-hospital deaths. Logistic regression was used to predict mortality risk factors. Results: From 1983-2012, total hospitalizations decreased by ~500,000 cases; simultaneously, VHD hospitalizations increased markedly (34,395 in 1983 to 125,139 in 2012). Rate of increase was linear across all VHD categories = 4,248 new cases (12.4%)/yr, r 2 = 0.99, p<.0001) through 2006 (peak= 132,323 cases), and then flattened through 2012. A parallel trend was found for VS, though no appreciable flattening occurred (2,582 cases in 1983 to 7,787 in 2012, linearized increase rate=207 VS [8.0%]/yr, r 2 =0.97, p<.001). Both numbers of hospitalizations and performance of VS rose with patient age (p<.001). Over the study interval, 123,787 patients with VHD died in the hospital, including 9,272 who died after VS; avg case fatality rates were 4.6% (all VHD) and 6.4% (VS). Deaths were independently associated with advancing age, nonelective admission and presence of associated HF (p<.0001, all). Male gender predicted increased death risk among the general VHD population; female gender predicted death risk among those undergoing VS. Conclusions: The incidence of VHD hospitalization and VS in NYS has risen substantially since the early 1980s and can be expected to rise further as the population ages. Thus, intensive planning is needed to deal with public health implications of these trends as we attempt to meet the growing needs of this patient population.

POLICY OF PROMOTING ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION IN TIMES OF COVID-19 LOCKDOWN IN INDIA: A MEDICAL AND CONSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS.

2021 ◽  
pp. 21-24
Author(s):  
Neha Sharma ◽  
Ayush Anand ◽  
Shreyas Joshi ◽  
Samrat Ray
Keyword(s):  
Mobile Application ◽  
Prospective Observational Study ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Family Welfare ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Given ◽  
Constitutional Analysis

BACKGROUND: India, with the declaration of COVID-19 as a pandemic, started imposing restrictions in the country th and initiated a nationwide lockdown under Section 6 of the Disaster Management Act, 2005 on 24 March 2020, followed by four phases of lockdown and then gradual unlock of the country. The rationale behind the same was to avoid social contact. Alcohol dispensing was also stopped during this time and was among the rst services to be reopened by the States. We propose in this paper that this lifting of ban on alcohol sale during the pandemic has led to a signicant increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in the country. METHODS: This is a prospective, observational study, done by collecting data from the Aargya Setu App, which is a mobile application launched by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare on 2 April 2020 for contact tracing and elf assessment of COVID-19. The data of cumulative number of cases in 12 selected states of the country were compared before and after the lift of ban of alcohol and signicance was shown by the paired t test. RESULTS: The number of COVID-19 positive cases in the country during nationwide lockdown with simultaneous ban on alcohol sale when compared to cumulative number of cases after the lift of ban of alcohol sale during Lockdown and initial Unlock is statistically signicant (p = 0.04) CONCLUSION: We found that the decision to restart the sale of Alcohol could have been a factor for rise in number of cases in the country in the given timeframe. The decision to start the sale has also not been in accordance with the Indian Constitution and against the nation's founding ethics.

scholarly journals Predictive accuracy of a hierarchical logistic model of cumulative SARS-CoV-2 case growth until May 2020

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Levente Kriston
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Logistic Model ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
First Case ◽  
Distribution Of Resources ◽  
The One ◽  
Models Of Disease

Abstract Background Infectious disease predictions models, including virtually all epidemiological models describing the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, are rarely evaluated empirically. The aim of the present study was to investigate the predictive accuracy of a prognostic model for forecasting the development of the cumulative number of reported SARS-CoV-2 cases in countries and administrative regions worldwide until the end of May 2020. Methods The cumulative number of reported SARS-CoV-2 cases was forecasted in 251 regions with a horizon of two weeks, one month, and two months using a hierarchical logistic model at the end of March 2020. Forecasts were compared to actual observations by using a series of evaluation metrics. Results On average, predictive accuracy was very high in nearly all regions at the two weeks forecast, high in most regions at the one month forecast, and notable in the majority of the regions at the two months forecast. Higher accuracy was associated with the availability of more data for estimation and with a more pronounced cumulative case growth from the first case to the date of estimation. In some strongly affected regions, cumulative case counts were considerably underestimated. Conclusions With keeping its limitations in mind, the investigated model may be used for the preparation and distribution of resources during the initial phase of epidemics. Future research should primarily address the model’s assumptions and its scope of applicability. In addition, establishing a relationship with known mechanisms and traditional epidemiological models of disease transmission would be desirable.

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