scholarly journals Estimating the Risk of Outbreaks of COVID-19 Associated with Shore Leave by Merchant Ship Crews: Simulation Studies for a Case Country

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nick Wilson ◽  
Tony Blakely ◽  
Michael Baker ◽  
Martin Eichner
Keyword(s):  
Median Time ◽  
Destination Country ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Simulation Studies ◽  
Stochastic Version ◽  
Scenario Analyses ◽  
Merchant Ship ◽  
Combined Use

Aim: We aimed to estimate the risk of COVID-19 outbreaks in a case study COVID-free destination country, associated with shore leave for merchant ship crews. Methods: A stochastic version of the SEIR model CovidSIM v1.1, designed specifically for COVID-19 was utilised. It was populated with parameters for SARS-CoV-2 transmission, shipping characteristics, and plausible control measures. Results: When no control interventions were in place, an outbreak of COVID-19 in our case study destination country (New Zealand; NZ) was estimated to occur after a median time of 23 days (assuming a global average for source country incidence of 2.66 new infections per 1000 population per week, a crew of 20, a voyage length of 10 days, 1 day of shore leave both in NZ and abroad, and 108 port visits by international merchant ships per week). For this example the uncertainty around when outbreaks occur is wide (an outbreak occurs with 95% probability between 1 and 124 days). The combined use of a PCR test on arrival, self-reporting of symptoms with contact tracing, and mask use during shore leave, increased this median time to 1.0 year (14 days to 5.4 years). Scenario analyses found that onboard infection chains could persist for well over 4 weeks even with crews of only 5 members. Conclusion: Introduction of SARS-CoV-2 through shore leave from international shipping crews is likely, even after long voyages. The risk can be substantially mitigated by control measures such as PCR testing and mask use.

scholarly journals Estimating the impact of control measures to prevent outbreaks of COVID-19 associated with air travel into a COVID-19-free country

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nick Wilson ◽  
Michael G. Baker ◽  
Tony Blakely ◽  
Martin Eichner
Keyword(s):  
Median Time ◽  
Flight Test ◽  
The United States ◽  
Air Travel ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Alternative Interventions ◽  
Stochastic Version ◽  
Acceptable Risks ◽  
The Impact

AbstractWe aimed to estimate the risk of COVID-19 outbreaks associated with air travel to a COVID-19-free country [New Zealand (NZ)]. A stochastic version of the SEIR model CovidSIM v1.1, designed specifically for COVID-19 was utilised. We first considered historical data for Australia before it eliminated COVID-19 (equivalent to an outbreak generating 74 new cases/day) and one flight per day to NZ with no interventions in place. This gave a median time to an outbreak of 0.2 years (95% range of simulation results: 3 days to 1.1 years) or a mean of 110 flights per outbreak. However, the combined use of a pre-flight PCR test of saliva, three subsequent PCR tests (on days 1, 3 and 12 in NZ), and various other interventions (mask use and contact tracing) reduced this risk to one outbreak after a median of 1.5 years (20 days to 8.1 years). A pre-flight test plus 14 days quarantine was an even more effective strategy (4.9 years; 2,594 flights). For a much lower prevalence (representing only two new community cases per week in the whole of Australia), the annual risk of an outbreak with no interventions was 1.2% and had a median time to an outbreak of 56 years. In contrast the risks associated with travellers from Japan and the United States was very much higher and would need quarantine or other restrictions. Collectively, these results suggest that multi-layered interventions can markedly reduce the risk of importing the pandemic virus via air travel into a COVID-19-free nation. For some low-risk source countries, there is the potential to replace 14-day quarantine with alternative interventions. However, all approaches require public and policy deliberation about acceptable risks, and continuous careful management and evaluation.

scholarly journals Estimating the Impact of Control Measures to Prevent Outbreaks of COVID-19 Associated with Air Travel into a COVID-19-free country: A Simulation Modelling Study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nick Wilson ◽  
Michael G Baker ◽  
Martin Eichner
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Modelling ◽  
Air Travel ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Uncertainty Interval ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Stochastic Version ◽  
Low Prevalence ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

AbstractAimsWe aimed to estimate the risk of COVID-19 outbreaks associated with air travel from a country with a very low prevalence of COVID-19 infection (Australia) to a COVID-19-free country (New Zealand; [NZ]), along with the likely impact of various control measures for passengers and cabin crew.MethodsA stochastic version of the SEIR model CovidSIM v1.1, designed specifically for COVID-19 was utilized. It was populated with data for both countries and parameters for SARS-CoV-2 transmission and control measures. We assumed one Australia to NZ flight per day.ResultsWhen no interventions were in place, an outbreak of COVID-19 in NZ was estimated to occur after an average time of 1.7 years (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 0.04-6.09). However, the combined use of exit and entry screening (symptom questionnaire and thermal camera), masks on aircraft and two PCR tests (on days 3 and 12 in NZ), combined with self-reporting of symptoms and contact tracing and mask use until the second PCR test, reduced this risk to one outbreak every 29.8 years (0.8 to 110). If no PCR testing was performed, but mask use was used by passengers up to day 15 in NZ, the risk was one outbreak every 14.1 years. However, 14 days quarantine (NZ practice in May 2020), was the most effective strategy at one outbreak every 34.1 years (0.06 to 125); albeit combined with exit screening and mask use on flights.ConclusionsPolicy-makers can require multi-layered interventions to markedly reduce the risk of importing the pandemic virus into a COVID-19-free nation via air travel. There is potential to replace 14-day quarantine with PCR testing or interventions involving mask use by passengers in NZ. However, all approaches require continuous careful management and evaluation.

scholarly journals Analysis and prediction of Covid-19 spreading through Bayesian modelling with a case study of Uttar Pradesh, India

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deepmala ◽  
Nishant Kumar Srivastava ◽  
Vineet Kumar ◽  
Sanjay Kumar Singh
Keyword(s):  
Uttar Pradesh ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Bayesian Modelling ◽  
Government Control ◽  
Bayesian Paradigm ◽  
The Government ◽  
And Control

The pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) started in Wuhan, China, and spread worldwide. In India, COVID-19 cases increased rapidly throughout India. Various measures like awareness program, social distancing, and contact tracing have been implemented to control the COVID-19 outbreak. In the absence of any vaccine, the prediction of the confirmed, deceased, and recovered cases is required to enhance the health care system's capacity and control the transmission. In this study, the cumulative and the daily confirmed, deceased, and recovered cases in Uttar Pradesh, India, were analyzed. We used the Logistic and Gompertz non-linear regression model using a Bayesian paradigm. We build the prior distribution of the model using information obtained from some other states of India, which are already reached at the advanced stage of COVID-19. Results from the analysis indicated that the predicted maximum number of confirmed, deceased, and recovered cases will be around 1157335, 5843, and 1145829. The daily number of confirmed, deceased, and recovered cases will be maximum at 104th day, 73rd day, and 124th day from 16 June 2020. Moreover, the COVID-19 will be over probably by early-June, 2021. The analysis did not consider any changes in government control measures. We hope this study can provide some relevant information to the government and health officials.

An Epidemiological Analysis of COVID-19 Confirmed Cases, Reported at National Institute of Health, Pakistan (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ambreen Chaudhry
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Target Population ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Bivariate Analysis ◽  
Travel History ◽  
Disease Epidemiology ◽  
Hygiene Practices ◽  
Multi Center Study ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics

BACKGROUND Coronavirus disease (Covid-19) is a zoonotic disease of novel origin that posed a continuous threat to health worldwide after taking the shape of the pandemic. An understanding of disease epidemiology is supportive in timely preventive and control measures as well as contact tracing and curbing surveillance activities. OBJECTIVE The objective of our study was to determine the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 confirmed cases reported at the National Institute of Health Pakistan and elements of its spread in Pakistan. METHODS A retrospective record review was conducted at the National Institute of Health (NIH) Islamabad, Pakistan from January 25 to April 4, 2020. Univariate and bivariate analysis was done with 95% CI and p<0.05. RESULTS A total of 14,422 samples of suspected COVID-19 cases were received with a positivity rate of 9% (n=1348). Among all 70% (n=939) were male. The median age was 41years of age (range: 01-99Years). Among all, 19% were from 30-39 years old followed by 50-59 years old (17%). Children remained the least affected by 3% (n=35). Of the total reported cases, 55% (n=735) have reported the travel history within the last 14 days. Among these travelers’ international travelers were 23% (n=166) and domestic travelers were 77% (n=569). Travel history including both international and domestic remained significantly associated with the different age groups and Young adults remained more vulnerable to COVID-19 (P=0.03). Fever, SOB, and Cough remained the most significantly associated (P<0.05) in all age groups. CONCLUSIONS A higher incidence of COVID-19 among elderly men suggests robust quarantine measures for this target population. An escalating incidence of local transmission needs strict social distancing and hygiene practices to help flatten the curve. An extensive multi-center study is also recommended for a full understanding of disease dynamics.

scholarly journals Scenario Analyses of Exhaust Emissions Reduction through the Introduction of Electric Vehicles into the City

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 2030
Author(s):  
Marianna Jacyna ◽  
Renata Żochowska ◽  
Aleksander Sobota ◽  
Mariusz Wasiak
Keyword(s):  
Inner City ◽  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Exhaust Emissions ◽  
Scenario Analyses ◽  
High Emission ◽  
Clean Air ◽  
The One ◽  
The City

In recent years, policymakers of urban agglomerations in various regions of the world have been striving to reduce environmental pollution from harmful exhaust and noise emissions. Restrictions on conventional vehicles entering the inner city are being introduced and the introduction of low-emission measures, including electric ones, is being promoted. This paper presents a method for scenario analysis applied to study the reduction of exhaust emissions by introducing electric vehicles in a selected city. The original scenario analyses relating to real problems faced by contemporary metropolitan areas are based on the VISUM tool (PTV Headquarters for Europe: PTV Planung Transport Verkehr AG, 76131 Karlsruhe, Germany). For the case study, the transport model of the city of Bielsko-Biala (Poland) was used to conduct experiments with different forms of participation of electric vehicles on the one hand and traffic restrictions for high emission vehicles on the other hand. Scenario analyses were conducted for various constraint options including inbound, outbound, and through traffic. Travel time for specific transport relations and the volume of harmful emissions were used as criteria for evaluating scenarios of limited accessibility to city zones for selected types of vehicles. The comparative analyses carried out showed that the introduction of electric vehicles in the inner city resulted in a significant reduction in the emission of harmful exhaust compounds and, consequently, in an increase in the area of clean air in the city. The case study and its results provide some valuable insights and may guide decision-makers in their actions to introduce both driving ban restrictions for high-emission vehicles and incentives for the use of electric vehicles for city residents.

scholarly journals Moving Faster than the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Rapid, Digital Transformation of a Public Health System

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (02) ◽  
pp. 229-236
Author(s):  
Clair Sullivan ◽  
Ides Wong ◽  
Emily Adams ◽  
Magid Fahim ◽  
Jon Fraser ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health System ◽  
Public Health System ◽  
Digital Transformation ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Programming Approach ◽  
Data Governance ◽  
Application Development ◽  
Containment Strategy

Abstract Background Queensland, Australia has been successful in containing the COVID-19 pandemic. Underpinning that response has been a highly effective virus containment strategy which relies on identification, isolation, and contact tracing of cases. The dramatic emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic rendered traditional paper-based systems for managing contact tracing no longer fit for purpose. A rapid digital transformation of the public health contact tracing system occurred to support this effort. Objectives The objectives of the digital transformation were to shift legacy systems (paper or standalone electronic systems) to a digitally enabled public health system, where data are centered around the consumer rather than isolated databases. The objective of this paper is to outline this case study and detail the lessons learnt to inform and give confidence to others contemplating digitization of public health systems in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods This case study is set in Queensland, Australia. Universal health care is available. A multidisciplinary team was established consisting of clinical informaticians, developers, data strategists, and health information managers. An agile “pair-programming” approach was undertaken to application development and extensive change efforts were made to maximize adoption of the new digital workflows. Data governance and flows were changed to support rapid management of the pandemic. Results The digital coronavirus application (DCOVA) is a web-based application that securely captures information about people required to quarantine and creates a multiagency secure database to support a successful containment strategy. Conclusion Most of the literature surrounding digital transformation allows time for significant consultation, which was simply not possible under crisis conditions. Our observation is that staff was willing to adopt new digital systems because the reason for change (the COVID-19 pandemic) was clearly pressing. This case study highlights just how critical a unified purpose, is to successful, rapid digital transformation.

A case study of noise pollution levels during the restrictions period due to COVID-19.

2021 ◽  
Vol 263 (6) ◽  
pp. 206-214
Author(s):  
David Montes-González ◽  
Juan Miguel Barrigón-Morillas ◽  
Ana Cristina Bejarano-Quintas ◽  
Manuel Parejo-Pizarro ◽  
Guillermo Rey-Gozalo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Noise Pollution ◽  
Urban Environments ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Acoustic Measurements ◽  
Pollution Levels ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City

The pandemic of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) led to the need for drastic control measures around the world to reduce the impact on the health of the population. The confinement of people in their homes resulted in a significant reduction in human activity at every level (economic, social, industrial, etc.), which was reflected in a decrease in environmental pollution levels. Studying the evolution of parameters, such as the level of environmental noise caused by vehicle traffic in urban environments, makes it possible to assess the impact of this type of measure. This paper presents a case study of the acoustic situation in Cáceres (Spain) during the restriction period by means of long-term acoustic measurements at various points of the city.

Impact of dust on health of on-site construction workers – a case study

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gauri Mohan ◽  
Annie Sonia Xavier
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Questionnaire Survey ◽  
Residential Building ◽  
Dust Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Construction Equipment ◽  
Dust Pollution ◽  
Building Site ◽  
Many Sources

The rate of air pollution is becoming a cause for worldwide concern because of its substantial increase. Different sources like combustion of fuels, release of smoke from industries etc are responsible for the pollution of air. The construction industry is a major contributor to air pollution in the form of dust. Most of the activities involved in the completion of a construction project contribute to the generation of dust in one way or another. There are many sources of dust in a construction site like the use of construction equipment, transportation activities etc. the dust thus generated can ill effects as well. But, the problem of dust pollution is not addressed properly mainly because of the lack of awareness in this area. Proper identification of sources of dust in sites, its health impacts etc can help generate awareness and also help in implementing control measures. This can help reduce dust pollution on site. Here, a residential building site is taken for the case study. A questionnaire survey is conducted for the workers to identify the negative impacts construction dust has and also to determine the most common dust control measures employed in site. Keywords—air pollution, construction activities, construction equipment, questionnaire survey, dust control

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