scholarly journals Distribution equality as an optimal epidemic mitigation strategy

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adar Hacohen ◽  
Reuven Cohen ◽  
Sol Efroni ◽  
Ido Bachelet ◽  
Baruch Barzel
Keyword(s):  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Mitigation Strategy ◽  
Optimal Conditions ◽  
Supply Rate ◽  
Dissemination Strategy ◽  
Viral Spread ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Rapid Dissemination ◽  
Efficient Distribution

Upon the development of a drug or vaccine, a successful response to a global pandemic, such as COVID-19, requires the capacity for efficient distribution at a global scale. Considering constraints on production and shipping, most existing strategies seek to maximize the outflow of therapeutics, hence optimizing for rapid dissemination. Surprisingly, we find that this intuitive approach is counterproductive. The reason is that focusing strictly on the quantity of disseminated therapeutics, such strategies disregard their specific spreading patterns, most crucially, they overlook the interplay of these spreading patterns with those of the pathogens. This results in a discrepancy between supply and demand, that prohibits efficient mitigation even under optimal conditions of superfluous drug/vaccine flow. Therefore, here, we design a dissemination strategy that naturally follows the predicted spreading patterns of the epidemic, optimizing not just for supply volume, but also for its congruency with the anticipated demand. Specifically, we show that epidemics spread relatively uniformly across all destinations, and hence we introduce an equality constraint into our dissemination that prioritizes supply homogeneity. This strategy may, at times, slow down the supply rate in certain locations, however, thanks to its egalitarian nature, which mimics the flow of the viral spread, it provides a dramatic leap in overall mitigation efficiency, saving more lives with orders of magnitude less resources.

scholarly journals Riding the waves: the ongoing impact of COVID-19 on a national surgical training cohort

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Orla Hennessy ◽  
Amy Lee Fowler ◽  
Conor Hennessy ◽  
David Brinkman ◽  
Aisling Hogan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surgical Training ◽  
World Health Organisation ◽  
World Health ◽  
Training Methods ◽  
Viral Spread ◽  
Surgical Services ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Surgical Trainees ◽  
Secondary Survey ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background The World Health Organisation declared a global pandemic on the 11 March 2020 resulting in implementation of methods to contain viral spread, including curtailment of all elective and non-emergent interventions. Many institutions have experienced changes in rostering practices and redeployment of trainees to non-surgical services. Examinations, study days, courses, and conferences have been cancelled. These changes have the potential to significantly impact the education and training of surgical trainees. Aim To investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on training, educational, and operative experiences of Irish surgical trainees. Methods Surgical trainees were surveyed anonymously regarding changes in working and educational practices since the declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic on 11 March 2020. The survey was circulated in May 2020 to both core and higher RCSI surgical trainees, when restrictions were at level five. Questions included previous and current access to operative sessions as well as operative cases, previous and current educational activities, access to senior-led training, and access to simulation-/practical-based training methods. A repeat survey was carried out in October 2020 when restrictions were at level two. Results Overall, primary and secondary survey response rates were 29% (n = 98/340) and 19.1% (n = 65/340), respectively. At the time of circulation of the second survey, the number of operative sessions attended and cases performed had significantly improved to numbers experienced pre-pandemic (p < 0.0001). Exposure to formal teaching and education sessions returned to pre-COVID levels (p < 0.0001). Initially, 23% of trainees had an examination cancelled; 53% of these trainees have subsequently sat these examinations. Of note 27.7% had courses cancelled, and 97% of these had not been rescheduled. Conclusion Surgical training and education have been significantly impacted in light of COVID-19. This is likely to continue to fluctuate in line with subsequent waves. Significant efforts have to be made to enable trainees to meet educational and operative targets.

scholarly journals Quantitative method for resilience assessment framework of airport network during COVID-19

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. e0260940
Author(s):  
Jiuxia Guo ◽  
Yang Li ◽  
Zongxin Yang ◽  
Xinping Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Complex Network ◽  
Small World ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Assessment Framework ◽  
Small World Networks ◽  
Scale Free ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Network Metrics ◽  
Resilience Assessment

The resilience and vulnerability of airport networks are significant challenges during the COVID-19 global pandemic. Previous studies considered node failure of networks under natural disasters and extreme weather. Herein, we propose a complex network methodology combined with data-driven to assess the resilience of airport networks toward global-scale disturbance using the Chinese airport network (CAN) and the European airport network (EAN) as a case study. The assessment framework includes vulnerability and resilience analyses from the network- and node-level perspectives. Subsequently, we apply the framework to analyze the airport networks in China and Europe. Specifically, real air traffic data for 232 airports in China and 82 airports in Europe are selected to form the CAN and EAN, respectively. The complex network analysis reveals that the CAN and the EAN are scale-free small-world networks, that are resilient to random attacks. However, the connectivity and vulnerability of the CAN are inferior to those of the EAN. In addition, we select the passenger throughput from the top-50 airports in China and Europe to perform a comparative analysis. By comparing the resilience evaluation of individual airports, we discovered that the factors of resilience assessment of an airport network for global disturbance considers the network metrics and the effect of government policy in actual operations. Additionally, this study also proves that a country’s emergency response-ability towards the COVID-19 has a significantly affectes the recovery of its airport network.

A Short History and Thematic Overview

2021 ◽  
pp. 3-24
Author(s):  
Victor V. Ramraj ◽  
Matthew Little
Keyword(s):  
Global Scale ◽  
Complex Environment ◽  
Short History ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Law And Policy ◽  
Emergency Powers ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
The World ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Sheer Size

This chapter provides a short history and epidemiological overview of the Covid-19 pandemic, from its origin in Wuhan, China, to its spread across Asia and around the world. It identifies the five law and policy themes discussed in this book—first wave containment measures; emergency powers; technology, science, and expertise; politics, religion, and governance; and economy, climate, and sustainability—and concludes with some reflections and questions on Asia’s role in formulating responses to a pandemic in particular, and global crises more generally. Although Covid-19 quickly became a global pandemic, a focus on responses in Asia is both practical and intellectually defensible for three main reasons. First, China was the epicentre of the pandemic, which spread throughout January and February to other parts of the region. Second, Asia’s legal and political diversity provides a complex environment in which to study the challenges of policy responses and inter-governmental coordination, even without shifting to the global scale. Finally, Asia’s sheer size complicates matters even further.

scholarly journals Digitizable therapeutics for decentralized mitigation of global pandemics

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Adar Hacohen ◽  
Reuven Cohen ◽  
Sol Efroni ◽  
Baruch Barzel ◽  
Ido Bachelet
Keyword(s):  
Dna Sequences ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Chemical Compounds ◽  
Air Transportation ◽  
Distribution Networks ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Local Production ◽  
Commodity Flow ◽  
Spreading Dynamics ◽  
Global Demand

Abstract When confronted with a globally spreading epidemic, we seek efficient strategies for drug dissemination, creating a competition between supply and demand at a global scale. Propagating along similar networks, e.g., air-transportation, the spreading dynamics of the supply vs. the demand are, however, fundamentally different, with the pathogens driven by contagion dynamics, and the drugs by commodity flow. We show that these different dynamics lead to intrinsically distinct spreading patterns: while viruses spread homogeneously across all destinations, creating a concurrent global demand, commodity flow unavoidably leads to a highly uneven spread, in which selected nodes are rapidly supplied, while the majority remains deprived. Consequently, even under ideal conditions of extreme production and shipping capacities, due to the inherent heterogeneity of network-based commodity flow, efficient mitigation becomes practically unattainable, as homogeneous demand is met by highly heterogeneous supply. Therefore, we propose here a decentralized mitigation strategy, based on local production and dissemination of therapeutics, that, in effect, bypasses the existing distribution networks. Such decentralization is enabled thanks to the recent development of digitizable therapeutics, based on, e.g., short DNA sequences or printable chemical compounds, that can be distributed as digital sequence files and synthesized on location via DNA/3D printing technology. We test our decentralized mitigation under extremely challenging conditions, such as suppressed local production rates or low therapeutic efficacy, and find that thanks to its homogeneous nature, it consistently outperforms the centralized alternative, saving many more lives with significantly less resources.

scholarly journals The global environmental problem of the XXI century, new realities

2020 ◽  
Vol 208 ◽  
pp. 01019
Author(s):  
Natalya Frolova
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Environmental Problem ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Forest Area ◽  
Species Barrier ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
Zoonotic Infections ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Global Environmental ◽  
The Impact

The article analyzes the global environmental problem in its traditional aspects, such as a decrease in forest area, degradation of land resources, air pollution, as well as in its new features - a global pandemic. The article initially presents the concept of a global environmental problem from the perspective of foreign and domestic scientists, as well as international organizations. Further, the analysis of the manifestation of the global environmental problem is carried out in terms of quantitative indicators: reduction of forest area, land degradation, air pollution. The author outlines such an aspect of a global environmental problem as zoonotic infections, that is, the transfer of viruses from animals to humans. Under new conditions, the spread of viruses is accelerating, they easily overcome the species barrier, cause infection of the human body. The transmission of viruses on a global scale is becoming a new reality. At the same time, there are also “side” manifestations of the virus associated with its impact on the socio-economic development of individual countries, the impact on the policy of world economic relations. In conclusion, the author describes specific ways of solving the global environmental problem, both for individual countries and the world in general.

scholarly journals COVID-19 EXTERNALITIES: ECONOMIC IMPACTS AND POLICY RESPONSES IN CHINA

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olha Posypanko
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Supply And Demand Shocks ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Chinese Policy ◽  
Economic Developments ◽  
The Impact

This article focuses on the Chinese experience in mitigating the influence of COVID-19 and addresses the impact of the pandemic on the world economy and, in particular, on China`s economy; examines Chinese policy responses to the supply and demand shocks in terms of fiscal and monetary measures, and considers gains and costs of those actions. Thus, the research is made from the stance of China, with regard to its slowdown which concerning economists and may be also aggravated by the trade confrontation. Considering the size of the Chinese economy in terms of global interdependence, its contribution to world growth, and growing weight in the international arena, this study makes timely contributions over determining of the global economic developments and prospects. The result of this study open new avenues for future research and may serve as the source of hypotheses for further quantitative research on Chinese economy and crisis measures amid global pandemic.

scholarly journals Machine Learning on the COVID-19 Pandemic, Human Mobility, and Air Quality: A Review

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md Mokhlesur Rahman ◽  
Kamal Chandra Paul ◽  
Md. Amjad Hossain ◽  
G. G. Md. Nawaz Ali ◽  
Md. Shahinoor Rahman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Urban Form ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Past Research ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Viral Spread ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Review Study

The ongoing COVID-19 global pandemic is affecting every facet of human lives (e.g., public health, education, economy, transportation, and the environment). This novel pandemic and citywide implemented lockdown measures are affecting virus transmission, people&rsquo;s travel patterns, and air quality. Many studies have been conducted to predict the COVID-19 diffusion, assess the impacts of the pandemic on human mobility and air quality, and assess the impacts of lockdown measures on viral spread with a range of Machine Learning (ML) techniques. This review study aims to analyze results from past research to understand the interactions among the COVID-19 pandemic, lockdown measures, human mobility, and air quality. The critical review of prior studies indicates that urban form, people's socioeconomic and physical conditions, social cohesion, and social distancing measures significantly affect human mobility and COVID-19 transmission. During the COVID-19 pandemic, many people are inclined to use private transportation for necessary travel purposes to mitigate coronavirus-related health problems. This review study also noticed that COVID-19 related lockdown measures significantly improve air quality by reducing the concentration of air pollutants, which in turn improves the COVID-19 situation by reducing respiratory-related sickness and deaths of the people. It is argued that ML is a powerful, effective, and robust analytic paradigm to handle complex and wicked problems such as a global pandemic. This study also discusses policy implications, which will be helpful for policymakers to take prompt actions to moderate the severity of the pandemic and improve urban environments by adopting data-driven analytic methods.

scholarly journals Homeworking Project Management & Agility as the New Normal in a Covid-19 World

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patcharin Sonjit ◽  
Nicholas Dacre ◽  
David Baxter
Keyword(s):  
Project Management ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Primary Concern ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
New Normal ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Management Processes ◽  
Organisational Routines ◽  
Project Management Processes ◽  
High Level

The Covid-19 global pandemic crisis has had a deep and profound impact on fundamental elements of society, the economy, and the environment as a whole. Key organisations, businesses, sectors and industries vital for delivering crucial projects have been affected by the relatively fast onset of Covid-19 on a global scale. As a result, organisational routines and project management processes that would have focused on established methods and practices have incurred dramatic changes leading to a greater emphasis on agility as part of a more exhaustive strategic Covid-19 world, where new routines and processes become embedded as the new normal. This research focuses on the increased demand in Homeworking Project Management (HPM) and more significant agility requirements across dispersed virtual project management teams. Initial insights from semi-structured interviews with a cross-section of 12 high-level project professionals suggest that; (i) Transitional homeworking project management processes have a direct impact on collaborative and operational routines; (ii) There is a greater level of demand on agility with HPM teams which do not necessarily have the organisational infrastructure to support these, (iii) Technological resources are becoming a primary concern with inequality of information across HPM teams, and (iv) Increasing critical bottlenecks across dispersed HPM teams is adversely affecting tenable project outcomes.

scholarly journals La pandemia del SARS-CoV-2 como riesgo global: desigualdad e inseguridad humana

2021 ◽  
pp. 62-76
Author(s):  
Sandra Kanety Zavaleta Hernández ◽  
Cesari Irwing Rico Becerra
Keyword(s):  
Social Life ◽  
International Security ◽  
Structural Violence ◽  
Human Security ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Global Risk ◽  
Way Of Life ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Current Health ◽  
Global Pandemic

La pandemia del SARS-CoV-2 cuestiona las estrategias de seguridad global dominantes y resalta las inmensas contradicciones de nuestro modo de vida. Este artículo tiene por objetivo analizar, desde la perspectiva de la seguridad humana, la pandemia como riesgo y amenaza para la vida social a escala global. Se retoman las categorías conceptuales de seguridad humana y riesgo global, para comprender las desigualdades, violencias estructurales y vulnerabilidades que acompañan la emergencia sanitaria y que perpetuarán sus afectaciones en el tiempo, para hacer de ella una crisis social total. Mediante las metodologías cuantitativa y cualitativa, se examinan algunas de las principales tendencias de riesgo que la pandemia representa. La hipótesis es que, con la pandemia, se suprimen los resquicios de seguridad y certeza brindados por la modernidad, cuyas contradicciones provocaron la catástrofe planetaria más importante en la historia reciente. Asimismo, la pandemia muestra que las estrategias ancladas a la seguridad tradicional no son las más apropiadas para enfrentar las consecuencias que tendrá la crisis sanitaria. La reivindicación de perspectivas multidimensionales sobre la seguridad se hace imprescindible, para responder a riesgos y amenazas. Abstract The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has questioned the dominant international security strategies, and also highlighted the immense contradictions in our global way of life. From a human security perspective, this investigation analyses the pandemic as a risk and threat to social life on a global scale. The conceptual categories of human security and global risk are used to understand the inequalities, structural violence and vulnerabilities that accompany the health emergency and make it a total social crisis. Some of the main risk trends that the pandemic represents are quantitatively and qualitatively analyzed. It is proposed that the global pandemic is leading to the suppression of the loopholes of security and certainty provided by modernity, whose contradictions have led us to suffer the most important planetary catastrophe in recent history. Likewise, the pandemic has shown that the strategies anchored to traditional security are not the most appropriate to face the consequences that the current health crisis will have. Therefore, to respond to these risks and threats, it is essential to develop new perspectives on security.

scholarly journals When Dendritic Cells Go Viral: The Role of Siglec-1 in Host Defense and Dissemination of Enveloped Viruses

Viruses ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Perez-Zsolt ◽  
Javier Martinez-Picado ◽  
Nuria Izquierdo-Useros
Keyword(s):  
Dendritic Cells ◽  
Sialic Acid ◽  
Cell Activation ◽  
Type I Interferons ◽  
Lymphoid Tissues ◽  
Type I ◽  
Dissemination Strategy ◽  
Enveloped Viruses ◽  
Viral Spread

Dendritic cells (DCs) are among the first cells that recognize incoming viruses at the mucosal portals of entry. Initial interaction between DCs and viruses facilitates cell activation and migration to secondary lymphoid tissues, where these antigen presenting cells (APCs) prime specific adaptive immune responses. Some viruses, however, have evolved strategies to subvert the migratory capacity of DCs as a way to disseminate infection systemically. Here we focus on the role of Siglec-1, a sialic acid-binding type I lectin receptor potently upregulated by type I interferons on DCs, that acts as a double edge sword, containing viral replication through the induction of antiviral immunity, but also favoring viral spread within tissues. Such is the case for distant enveloped viruses like human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 or Ebola virus (EBOV), which incorporate sialic acid-containing gangliosides on their viral membrane and are effectively recognized by Siglec-1. Here we review how Siglec-1 is highly induced on the surface of human DCs upon viral infection, the way this impacts different antigen presentation pathways, and how enveloped viruses have evolved to exploit these APC functions as a potent dissemination strategy in different anatomical compartments.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document