scholarly journals Global projections of lives saved from COVID-19 with universal mask use

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Low Cost ◽  
Health Benefits ◽  
Health Impacts ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Reference Scenario ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Economic Downturns ◽  
The Difference

ABSTRACTBACKGROUNDSocial distancing mandates (SDM) have reduced health impacts from COVID-19 but also resulted in economic downturns that have led many nations to relax SDM. Until deployment of an efficacious and equitable vaccine, intervention options to reduce COVID-19 mortality and minimize restrictive SDM are sought by society.METHODSA susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) deterministic transmission model was parameterized with data on reported deaths, cases, and select covariates to predict infections and deaths from COVID-19 through March 01, 2021. We explore three scenarios: a “non-adaptive” scenario where neither mask use or SDM adapt to changing conditions, a “reference” where current national levels of mask use are maintained and SDM reintroduced when deaths rise, and an increase in mask use to 95% coverage levels (“universal mask”). We reviewed published studies to set priors on the magnitude of reduction in transmission through increasing mask use.RESULTSMask use was estimated at 59.0% of people globally on October 19, 2020. Universal mask use could avert 733,310 deaths (95% UI 385,981 to 1,107,759) between October 27, 2020 and March 01, 2021, the difference between the predicted 2.95 million deaths (95% UI 2.70 to 3.35) in the reference scenario and 2.22 million deaths (95% UI 2.00 to 2.45) in the universal mask scenario over this time period.CONCLUSIONSThe cumulative toll of the COVID-19 pandemic could be substantially reduced by the universal adoption of masks before the availability of a vaccine. This low-cost, low-barrier policy, whether customary or mandated, has enormous health benefits with presumed marginal economic costs.

scholarly journals On the effectiveness of tracking and testing in SEIR models for improving health vs. economy trade-offs

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoav Kolumbus ◽  
Noam Nisan
Keyword(s):  
Additional Parameter ◽  
Patient Privacy ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Social Question ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Asymptomatic Individuals ◽  
Testing Policies

AbstractWe study the effectiveness of tracking and testing policies for suppressing epidemic outbreaks. We evaluate the performance of tracking-based intervention methods on a network SEIR model, which we augment with an additional parameter to model pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals, and study the effectiveness of these methods in combination with or as an alternative to quarantine and global lockdown policies. Our focus is on the basic trade-off between human-lives lost and economic costs, and on how this trade-off changes under different quarantine, lockdown, tracking, and testing policies. Our main findings are as follows: (1) Tests combined with patient quarantines reduce both economic costs and mortality, however, an extensive-scale testing capacity is required to achieve a significant improvement. (2) Tracking significantly reduces both economic costs and mortality. (3) Tracking combined with a moderate testing capacity can achieve containment without lockdowns. (4) In the presence of a flow of new incoming infections, dynamic “On–Off” lockdowns are more efficient than fixed lockdowns. In this setting as well, tracking strictly improves efficiency. The results show the extreme usefulness of policies that combine tracking and testing for reducing mortality and economic costs, and their potential to contain outbreaks without imposing any social distancing restrictions. This highlights the difficult social question of trading-off these gains against patient privacy, which is inevitably infringed by tracking.

scholarly journals Molecularly imprinted electrospun fiber membrane for colorimetric detection of hexanoic acid

e-Polymers ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 500-510
Author(s):  
Xiaoguang Ying ◽  
Jieyuan He ◽  
Xiao Li
Keyword(s):  
Low Cost ◽  
Electrospun Fiber ◽  
Colorimetric Detection ◽  
Hexanoic Acid ◽  
Bromocresol Purple ◽  
Fiber Membrane ◽  
Color Changes ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Imagej Software

Abstract An imprinted electrospun fiber membrane was developed for the detection of volatile organic acids, which are key components of human body odor. In this study, hexanoic acid (HA) was selected as the target, polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) was used as the substrate, and colorimetric detection of HA was achieved by a bromocresol purple (BCP) chromogenic agent. The results showed that the morphology of the fiber membrane was uniform and continuous, and it showed excellent selectivity and specificity to HA. Photographs of the color changes before and after fiber membrane adsorption were recorded by a camera and quantified by ImageJ software by the difference in gray value (ΔGray). This method is simple, intuitive, and low cost and has great potential for application in human odor analysis.

scholarly journals Health Impacts of Urban Bicycling in Mexico

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 2300
Author(s):  
David Rojas-Rueda
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Physical Activity ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Health Risks ◽  
Health Benefits ◽  
Health Impacts ◽  
Traffic Fatalities ◽  
Premature Deaths ◽  
Air Pollution Exposure ◽  
Pollution Exposure

Background: Bicycling has been associated with health benefits. Local and national authorities have been promoting bicycling as a tool to improve public health and the environment. Mexico is one of the largest Latin American countries, with high levels of sedentarism and non-communicable diseases. No previous studies have estimated the health impacts of Mexico’s national bicycling scenarios. Aim: Quantify the health impacts of Mexico urban bicycling scenarios. Methodology: Quantitative Health Impact Assessment, estimating health risks and benefits of bicycling scenarios in 51,718,756 adult urban inhabitants in Mexico (between 20 and 64 years old). Five bike scenarios were created based on current bike trends in Mexico. The number of premature deaths (increased or reduced) was estimated in relation to physical activity, road traffic fatalities, and air pollution. Input data were collected from national publicly available data sources from transport, environment, health and population reports, and surveys, in addition to scientific literature. Results: We estimated that nine premature deaths are prevented each year among urban populations in Mexico on the current car-bike substitution and trip levels (1% of bike trips), with an annual health economic benefit of US $1,897,920. If Mexico achieves similar trip levels to those reported in The Netherlands (27% of bike trips), 217 premature deaths could be saved annually, with an economic impact of US $45,760,960. In all bicycling scenarios assessed in Mexico, physical activity’s health benefits outweighed the health risks related to traffic fatalities and air pollution exposure. Conclusion: The study found that bicycling promotion in Mexico would provide important health benefits. The benefits of physical activity outweigh the risk from traffic fatalities and air pollution exposure in bicyclists. At the national level, Mexico could consider using sustainable transport policies as a tool to promote public health. Specifically, the support of active transportation through bicycling and urban design improvements could encourage physical activity and its health co-benefits.

scholarly journals Large numbers of vertebrates began rapid population decline in the late 19th century

2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (49) ◽  
pp. 14079-14084 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haipeng Li ◽  
Jinggong Xiang-Yu ◽  
Guangyi Dai ◽  
Zhili Gu ◽  
Chen Ming ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Diversity ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Threatened Species ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Cumulative Effect ◽  
Extinction Time ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
The Difference

Accelerated losses of biodiversity are a hallmark of the current era. Large declines of population size have been widely observed and currently 22,176 species are threatened by extinction. The time at which a threatened species began rapid population decline (RPD) and the rate of RPD provide important clues about the driving forces of population decline and anticipated extinction time. However, these parameters remain unknown for the vast majority of threatened species. Here we analyzed the genetic diversity data of nuclear and mitochondrial loci of 2,764 vertebrate species and found that the mean genetic diversity is lower in threatened species than in related nonthreatened species. Our coalescence-based modeling suggests that in many threatened species the RPD began ∼123 y ago (a 95% confidence interval of 20–260 y). This estimated date coincides with widespread industrialization and a profound change in global living ecosystems over the past two centuries. On average the population size declined by ∼25% every 10 y in a threatened species, and the population size was reduced to ∼5% of its ancestral size. Moreover, the ancestral size of threatened species was, on average, ∼22% smaller than that of nonthreatened species. Because the time period of RPD is short, the cumulative effect of RPD on genetic diversity is still not strong, so that the smaller ancestral size of threatened species may be the major cause of their reduced genetic diversity; RPD explains 24.1–37.5% of the difference in genetic diversity between threatened and nonthreatened species.

scholarly journals Quantitative Analysis of Fluorescence Detection Using a Smartphone Camera for a PCR Chip

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (11) ◽  
pp. 3917
Author(s):  
Jong-Dae Kim ◽  
Chan-Young Park ◽  
Yu-Seop Kim ◽  
Ji-Soo Hwang
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Analysis ◽  
Fluorescence Detection ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Dna Amplification ◽  
Fluorescent Detection ◽  
Rt Pcr ◽  
Commercial System ◽  
Intensity Changes ◽  
The Difference

Most existing commercial real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) instruments are bulky because they contain expensive fluorescent detection sensors or complex optical structures. In this paper, we propose an RT-PCR system using a camera module for smartphones that is an ultra small, high-performance and low-cost sensor for fluorescence detection. The proposed system provides stable DNA amplification. A quantitative analysis of fluorescence intensity changes shows the camera’s performance compared with that of commercial instruments. Changes in the performance between the experiments and the sets were also observed based on the threshold cycle values in a commercial RT-PCR system. The overall difference in the measured threshold cycles between the commercial system and the proposed camera was only 0.76 cycles, verifying the performance of the proposed system. The set calibration even reduced the difference to 0.41 cycles, which was less than the experimental variation in the commercial system, and there was no difference in performance.

scholarly journals A Sociolinguistic Study of Choosing Names for Newborn Children in Jordan

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abeer Harb Al-Qawasmi ◽  
Fawwaz Al-Abed Al-Haq
Keyword(s):  
Random Sample ◽  
Social Values ◽  
Male And Female ◽  
Personal Names ◽  
The People ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Civil Status ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Different Cultures ◽  
Clear Change

<p>This study aims at the study of newborn names in Jordan of a sociolinguistic perspective. This study tries to detect the difference in naming newborns in Jordan over the decades - from the seventies to 2015 due to the result of some factors that may have affected the Jordanian society, whether historical, religious and/or social. The data necessary to complete the study was obtained from the Civil Status Department and the Department of Statistics. The data obtained consisted of names of both sexes during the time period from the seventies until the early year of 2015, a random sample of personal names within the same family were also provided. The data was analyzed quantitatively. The study revealed that there is a clear change in the choice of newborn names-male and female-in Jordan, whether a change in sounds or in morphemes. In specific, names during the seventies were strongly linked to the culture and the values, religious or social, in which the people believed in. During the eighties and nineties, names were associated with certain social values, however, some names were shown to be affected by urbanization or modernization. And with the beginning of 2000 up to 2015, peoples directions towards naming newborns changed due to the advent of globalization, associating with development and urbanization, and moreover, the influence of different cultures on the community.</p>

scholarly journals An alternative way to evaluate chemistry-transport model variability

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 1199-1208 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurent Menut ◽  
Sylvain Mailler ◽  
Bertrand Bessagnet ◽  
Guillaume Siour ◽  
Augustin Colette ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Transport Model ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Error Statistics ◽  
Chemistry Transport Model ◽  
Temporal Correlations ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Model Variability ◽  
Spatial Locations ◽  
Statistical Indicators

Abstract. A simple and complementary model evaluation technique for regional chemistry transport is discussed. The methodology is based on the concept that we can learn about model performance by comparing the simulation results with observational data available for time periods other than the period originally targeted. First, the statistical indicators selected in this study (spatial and temporal correlations) are computed for a given time period, using colocated observation and simulation data in time and space. Second, the same indicators are used to calculate scores for several other years while conserving the spatial locations and Julian days of the year. The difference between the results provides useful insights on the model capability to reproduce the observed day-to-day and spatial variability. In order to synthesize the large amount of results, a new indicator is proposed, designed to compare several error statistics between all the years of validation and to quantify whether the period and area being studied were well captured by the model for the correct reasons.

Helium Permeability Measurement of SiC Ceramic Composites for Advanced Reactor Application

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weiqian Zhuo ◽  
Fenglei Niu ◽  
Yungan Zhao ◽  
Houbo Qi ◽  
Zulong Hao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Low Cost ◽  
Ceramic Composites ◽  
Test System ◽  
Fiber Reinforced ◽  
Water Displacement ◽  
Coated Fiber ◽  
Sic Ceramic ◽  
Carbon Coated ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Reactor Application

Permeability of helium gas of Silicon carbide ceramic composites material, which is one of the most important properties in application of SiC composite for advanced reactors, is studied by using a simple, low-cost test system. The test system can not only qualitatively determine whether the sample is permeable or not, but also quantitatively measure the permeability for the permeable ones by water displacement. The tests are conducted with low pressure in room temperature. The permeability of the SiSiC composite depends on the preparation method. In four flat-plate materials prepared by different processes for the test, the splint based SiSiC and cordierite coated fiber reinforced SiSiC are hermetic, the permeability of uncoated fiber reinforced SiSiC and CVD carbon coated fiber reinforced SiSiC are 0.216cm2/s and 0.109cm2/s, which imply that the permeability is cut in half with the coating. The samples are scanned under SEM to analyze their microscopic structures and verified that the difference of permeability is related to their coatings as well as the pores and cracks.

scholarly journals Esham, the Origin of Sukuk for Facing the Crisis: Historical Experience

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 45
Author(s):  
Khairunnisa Musari
Keyword(s):  
Lower Cost ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Historical Experience ◽  
The Public ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
The Past ◽  
State Budgets ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Government

Pandemic brings a crisis. This makes world leaders have to work hard and smartly in managing state budgets. During the heyday of Islam, Muslims also faced crises. Given that time the power of Islam mastered many areas of the world, it can be assumed that the crisis that occurred in the past was a global crisis as it is happening today. The difference is the crisis that occurred at the time because of losing the war. This paper tries to describe the historical experience of the esham, one of the fiscal instruments in the Islamic world that helped the Ottoman Empire overcome the crisis. Esham has mobilized low-cost funds from the public in a relatively concise time. Esham served as a better choice than looking for foreign debt. As the origin of sukuk, esham has simpler structure so that can be used as an alternative to sukuk with a lower cost. To deal with a crisis, esham may intervene in the economy. Esham funds to the real sector in turn will help the government drive the economy as well as control prices in the market for goods and services. Therefore, esham has the potential in facing the crisis.

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